As we start the worst four-week period of the non-Olympics’ sports year (just baseball, basketball free agency over, training camps just starting for football, etc.) I thought I would preview the upcoming college football season. I think I will separate it by the big five conferences, the rest of the smaller conferences, and an overall post season outlook. Today I will start with the Non-BCS conferences best teams and whatever the hell the new Big East is called (AAC).
AAC (American Athletic Conference)
With the departures of Pittsburgh and Syracuse to the ACC, West Virginia to the Big XII previously, and Boise State backing out, the AAC has been left pretty bare. When you factor in that two of the top three teams will be moving on after this season as well, the remaining stragglers will be left with nothing but a low to mid-major conference. That is not exactly what SMU, Houston, and Memphis signed up for but that is what they will be left with.
This is the last season that this conference will be associated as a major conference because once the College Football Playoff starts in 2014 the AAC will join the Sun Belt, Mountain West, Mid-American Conference and Conference USA as the “Group of 5” that will be guaranteed one spot in the major bowls outside of the playoff. With that said, the major life of this conference could go out with a bang as there is actually a true contender to get to the BCS National Championship game for the first time since Miami defected.
Louisville Cardinals
Last Year: 11-2, Beat Florida in the Sugar Bowl
The Cardinals were a surprise threat last season to bust up the BCS as they started 9-0 before getting tripped up at Syracuse and losing a triple-overtime thriller to UConn. I could give you a list of the returning starters and lettermen, but you just need to know about one: Teddy Bridgewater. I am not going to lie, I did not get a chance to see much of Bridgewater but I did see him carve up a good Florida defense better than any other quarterback last season (including Heisman winner Johnny Manziel, first round draft pick E.J. Manuel and future high draft pick Aaron Murray) with less talent around him. Bridgewater is the real deal and I fully expect him to be the first player taken next spring not named Jadeveon.
The Cardinals have a future pro at every level of their defense as well. Preston Brown plays the quarterback of the defense as the middle linebacker racked up 109 tackles last season. As of now, he would be a mid-round pick but should he help Louisville go undefeated his stock could soar. Safety Hakeem Smith is another guy that will be playing on Sundays and is of similar draft stock as Brown. Smith will need to show more ball-hawking skills (just one INT last season) to improve his own draft position as well as the team’s chances. Defensive End Marcus Smith is the last prospect on their defense but is the most interesting. Marcus came to Louisville as a quarterback and has transitioned to the defensive line and posted 9.5 sacks over the past season and a half as well as a team high 7 tackles for a loss. The Cardinals will need Marcus to keep improving their weak pass rush to navigate an undefeated schedule.
Speaking of the schedule, it could be the MVP of the Louisville season. The Cardinals will not face a team that really has a chance of being ranked until their last game of the season. There are a couple of tricky road games before: September 14th, at Kentucky and November 8th, at Connecticut. Kentucky is easily the worst team in the SEC and the Cardinals will now they have to not just win, but win convincingly to help their resume for later in the season. UConn was able to slip past Louisville last year in triple-OT so I think the Cardinals will come out more prepared this time. The last game of the season is at Cincinnati, a 10-win team from a season ago. The Bearcats have a new coach in the weasel-like Tommy Tuberville but do retain some talent. This game very well could decide whether or not the Louisville gets into the BCS National Championship.
The Cardinals are a popular pick to go undefeated. As you will see over my next few posts, I do not see many undefeated teams this season, so should Louisville pull of the feat singularly, should they get a shot in the NC Game? I believe that they should, but I also do not think they will. The Cardinals will slip up on some random, rainy night to a team that no one expects. I’m looking atOctober 10th, at home against Rutgers. Louisville will be coming off a short, 5-day week after a road game to Temple. 11-1 sounds just right for this team.
Other Teams to Watch:
Honestly, these teams should not be considered in the same post as Louisville, because their level of talent and ceiling and a clear tier or two below Louisville. However, there is just not much that needs to be said about them so I want to keep it short and sweet.
Northern Illinois Huskies
Last Year: 12-2, Lost to Florida State in the Orange Bowl
The Huskies had a 12-game win streak sandwiched between losses to the two BCS Conference teams (I do not include Kansas because they just suck) that they played. Northern Illinois returns its own high-level quarterback in Jordan Lynch. Lynch took over for Chandler Harnish and is a bit smaller, but has a better arm. Lynch will have the advantage of being a clearly better quarterback than any other signal caller he faces on the schedule. The schedule for the Huskies is a bit trickier than Louisville’s, as there are two Big Ten road trips to Iowa and Purdue. While neither team is exactly the class of the Big Ten, they will easily be the toughest games on Northern Illinois’ schedule.
I think that the Huskies will get through the non-conference road trips unscathed based on the continuity of their Offense (every lineman back to protect Lynch as well as 3 of his top 4 receivers). The real test will be October 5th at Kent State. The Flashes were the talk of the non-BCS town as they were set up to bust a BCS bowl… until Northern Illinois outlasted them in double overtime in the MAC Championship game. Kent State will want blood for that disappointment, so I think they can overcome the Huskies, once, but not twice as the two will most likely meet in the MAC Championship game again.
Boise State Broncos
Last Year: 11-2, Beat Washington in the Las Vegas Bowl
The Broncos are now at the point where they do not rebuild like most non major schools, but just reload. Chris Peterson has developed a program that has seven straight 10-win seasons, as well as 12 of the last 14 years. The Broncos have lost one game or fewer 8 of the last 11 seasons, so they are literally a bounce or two away from going undefeated most years. This season is no different.
Boise State should be favored in every game except at BYU on October 25th. That game could almost be a pick ‘em, but I would not be surprised to see BYU favored at 7-0 or 6-1 going into it and ranked relatively high. However, I think the Broncos will pull that one out. I am more worried about the first game of the season at Washington. You will see my thoughts on the Huskies in the Pac-12 preview, but beating a team two games in a row is really hard to do. I think that 12-1 will be the mark for Boise, just short of a BCS game.
Fresno State Bulldogs
Last Year: 9-4, Lost to SMU in the Hawai’i Bowl
Fresno State has the same advantage as Northern Illinois: their quarterback will be the best on the field in almost every game with the exception being San Jose State’s David Fales. The Spartans do not have the talent level of Fresno, so that game should not be too much of an issue. Derek Carr, younger brother of the number one overall pick David, has developed into quite a prospect himself. Should he continue to progress, Fresno has a good shot at double digit wins.
The Bulldogs also play in the Mountain West so they will have a very similar schedule to Boise but their non-conference games are not nearly as hard. That is the real reason that Fresno State is listed here: they just have to beat the Broncos, at home. If Fresno can pull it out, I think they will ride the momentum to an undefeated regular season and a BCS Buster status.
Marshall Thundering Herd
Last Year: 5-7, No Bowl
Now I know this does not look like a BCS-Buster since they were sub-.500 last year, but hear me out. Phil Steele beat me to it, but the Herd should be the most improved team in the nation this season. They return the national passing yardage leader in Rakeem Cato as well as seven other starters on offense. Their porous defense returns all the young guys who were forced into playing time last year, as well as some transfers from BCS-conference schools. More importantly, they were 1-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year, so this team was close and regression is due.
When we really look at the schedule, we can see that the conference is up for the taking. Gone are the top contenders in UCF, SMU, Houston and Memphis. Tulsa and East Carolina have some rebuilding to do. I think Marshall will end up running the slate in the conference. The key game will be at Virginia Tech on September 21st. If the Thundering Herd can hang with the Hokies, this should give them the confidence needed to run the table during the rest of their games for an 11-1 finish. If Cato can get hot in the game and out duel a turnover-prone Logan Thomas, then we might be looking at the BCS buster of the year. You know what, screw it. I am taking the Thundering Herd at 13-0 to sneak into a BCS bowl.
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