The Big Ten might be as down as it has ever been the past couple of years, without a team really even sniffing the National Championship game. However, there is a team that could take advantage of this weakness and exploit it to the Promised Land.
Illinois- The only team that really does not have a shot to qualify for a bowl
Illinois Fighting Illini, 3-9
The Fighting Illini went 2-10 last year, and their schedule might be even more difficult this season. They have traded non-conference games with Arizona State and Louisiana Tech for Washington and Cincinnati, so I doubt they can even split those two. They also have to play the other mid-tier Big Ten teams all on the road. Nathan Scheelhaase is back at quarterback for a fourth season as the starter, but he really took a step back in development last year throwing for just 1,361 yards and only 4 touchdowns. He also will be without his best offensive lineman from last year as Hugh Thornton will be playing for the Colts. The defense returns arguably the roster’s best talent in linebacker Jonathan Brown, but they were hit hard by the draft losing two defensive linemen and a cornerback. This team does not have enough now, but with Wes Lunt transferring in from Oklahoma State, they might take a step up next season.
Hoping to Bowl- The mid-tier of the Big Ten cannot compete with the SEC/Big 12/ACC’s mid tiers, but there should be more bowl teams as they beat each other up.
Purdue Boilermakers, 4-8
Minnesota Golden Gophers, 5-7
Iowa Hawkeyes, 5-7
Indiana Hoosiers, 6-6
Purdue has a pretty tough non-conference schedule themselves with National Championship participant Notre Dame and dangerous Northern Illinois at home as well as a trip to Cincinnati. I think they can pull one of those out, and they get Illinois and Iowa at home, so five wins seems like a good aiming point. Overall, the Boilermakers’ opponents for this season won 96 games last year, third most in the nation. Purdue does return 9 starters on defense, but lost All-American Kawann Short to the NFL. Rob Henry takes over at quarterback but with just 38 career passing attempts. The defense should keep Purdue close enough to pull out a couple of upsets.
Minnesota was able to make a bowl last season by going 4-0 in non-conference play and should be able to start like that again this year. Sophomore Phillip Nelson starts at quarterback after filling in decently last year as a true freshman (50%, 873 yards and 8 touchdowns). Unfortunately the talent around him on offense is not up to par with the rest of the league. The defense will be led by possible first round draft pick Ra-Shede Hageman at defensive tackle. Hageman is an absolute beast that can control the line of scrimmage all on his own and allow the Gopher defense to fill up running lanes. The Gophers miss out on Ohio State and have a few winnable games at home that could get them to bowl contention.
Iowa is coming off one of the worst seasons in coach Kirk Ferentz’ career with only four wins last year, and they do not bring back a single quarterback who threw a pass last season. There is a four-way competition for the spot, and whoever wins it will have the conference’s best tight end, C.J. Fiedorowicz to throw to. Fiedorowicz is a matchup nightmare at 6’7’’, 265 pounds and is ranked as the number four tight end going into next year’s draft. The defense will be led by arguably the conference’s best trio of linebackers: James Morris, Anthony Hitchens and Christian Kirksey. They will hold the Hawkeyes in contention during conference play with the high number of power-running teams in the Big Ten.
Indiana will not leave its home stadium until October 12th and all five of the Hoosiers’ first games are winnable. They have a tricky game against Missouri on September 21st, but later in the season they draw Purdue, Illinois and Minnesota all at home. The Hoosiers will welcome back quarterback Tre Roberson who missed most of last season with a broken leg. In his one complete game, the then-sophomore threw for 280 yards, and before his injury in the second game had already rushed for 114 yards. With a medical redshirt, Roberson will be a sophomore again this season. I think his dynamic playmaking ability will help the Hoosiers get back to a bowl for just the second time in the past 20 years.
Better Be Bowling- These teams that are more worried about making the next step up toward the conference championship game.
Penn State Nittany Lions, 8-4
Michigan State Spartans, 8-4
Nebraska Cornhuskers, 9-3
#22 Northwestern Wildcats, 9-3
#23 Wisconsin Badgers, 9-3
Bill O’Brien has done one of the more impressive coaching jobs in the nation the last two seasons, taking one of the most tumultuous situations in recent college football history and fielding a competitive, winning team. While they will not be going to a bowl because of NCAA sanctions, this is definitely a “bowl-team”. With no experienced quarterbacks on the roster, the number one ranked high school signal caller Christian Hackenberg seems to be the choice to lead the Nittany Lion offense. Penn St. returns 9 other starters from an offense that led the Big Ten in yards/points per game in conference play. Hackenberg will have top wideout Allen Robinson to throw to and blue chip guard DaQuan Jones blocking for him. Defensive End Deion Barnes will pace the defense that includes a lot of youth. Penn State has a fairly easy non-conference schedule, and gets Illinois and Purdue at home as well as drawing Minnesota from the Legends division. This team will finish above .500 with a very promising future.
Michigan State had an up-and-down season last year, pulling above .500 with a bowl win. The Spartans lose leading rusher Le’Veon Bell, but do return quarterback Andrew Maxwell. In his first season as a starter, Maxwell was solid with 2,606 yards and 13 touchdowns. The strength of the Spartans will be their defense led by ball hawkers corner Darqueze Dennard and safety Isaiah Lewis and the linebacker combo of Denicos Allen and Max Bullough. All four guys will be drafted next spring and bring a ton of experience back. The conference schedule is especially friendly to Michigan State as they draw Indiana, Purdue and Illinois from the Leaders’ Division, avoiding Ohio State.
Is it just me, or does it seem like Taylor Martinez has been playing at Nebraska for a decade? The speedy little quarterback will start his final season behind one of the best lines in college football with all five starters being seniors and possible draft prospects. Martinez will have Kenny Bell to throw to, who broke out last season for 863 yards and 8 touchdowns. Ameer Abdullah is back at running back after rushing for over a thousand yards last season. The questions all reside on the defensive side of the ball, where the Cornhuskers gave up 45 points in their bowl game against Georgia, after giving up 70 to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship. If the defense can step up, starting with the home non-conference game against UCLA, then the Huskers could challenge for the Legends division title.
Northwestern won double-digit games for only the third time in their history last year, and won their first bowl game since 1949. The Wildcats bring back their two-headed quarterback due of the runner, Kain Colter and big armed Trevor Siemian. Pat Fitzgerald and offensive coordinator Mick McCall have been able to successfully balance the offense with either quarterback in the game, to keep the defense off guard. The defense is led by pass-rusher Tyler Scott, the best pro prospect on the roster. The schedule starts off with a complicated cross-country road trip to Cal, but the Wildcats get both Ohio State and Michigan at home. They are definitely a dangerous team that should not be overlooked.
Wisconsin might be the hardest team to predict in the entire conference. Gone are head coach Bret Bielema and all-time touchdown leader Montee Ball. However, Gary Andersen turned Utah State from a perennial doormat to an 11-win team in just three years. The Badgers also have more than enough coming back in the backfield between James White and Melvin Gordon to replace Ball’s historic production. Jared Abbrederis might be the most under-rated wide receiver in the league, as well. Wisconsin does have a rather difficult schedule. They do get to miss out on Michigan, Nebraska and Michigan State, but have to travel to Ohio State and Arizona State as well as a rare mid-season non-conference clash with BYU. If Bielema would have stayed, I might have been a little higher on the Badgers, but there is always some decline with change so 9-10 wins feels about right.
The Favorite and Surprise- Every analyst in the country has the Buckeyes winning the conference easily, however I am not as confidant.
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes, 11-1
#17 Michigan Wolverines, 11-1
Yes, I am pulling the trigger on the upset pick. I know how loaded Ohio State is on defense alone: they have the number one corner in the nation, Bradley Roby; the number three linebacker in Ryan Shazier; and number four safety C.J. Barnett. Then on offense is one of the Heisman Favorites in Braxton Miller along with top prospect, tackle Jack Mewhort and running back Carlos Hyde. Then there’s that Urban Meyer guy who has been the best coach in the country for the past decade that has not made a deal with the devil. With all that said, I do not like the schedule. It is too easy for the Buckeyes until their clash with Michigan at the end of the season. Yes, there is a tough two-game stretch in late-September/early-October where Ohio State plays Wisconsin and travels to Northwestern. After that though, the Buckeyes will play five straight, most likely unranked, teams in which they will be heavy favorites. So that will leave them at 11-0 without being tested for two months, going into The Big House. I think that is just too much pressure on a team that has not played that big of a game in two years.
Michigan does not have as much next-level talent as Ohio State, but I do think that many of their best players are under appreciated. It all starts and ends with quarterback Devin Gardner. I am going all-in on a guy with five career starts. After playing receiver for the first eight games of last season, Gardner filled in for Shoelace the last five, combining for 18 touchdowns and throwing for 250 yards a game. This included an 18-23, 314 yards and 6 total touchdown performance in his third start ever. He’s got a monster arm and the athletic ability of Cam Newton. He also has the second ranked tackle in the country in Taylor Lewan blocking his blindside. Fitzgerald Toussaint is fully healthy finally and will provide a spark at running back. Jeremy Gallon fits his nickname Tiny, but is an energetic playmaker with the ball in his hands. I think the Wolverine offense will be one of the best in the country (better than Ohio State’s) and they will outscore the Buckeyes in the deciding game. I also do not think they can navigate Notre Dame, @Penn State, @Michigan State, Nebraska and @Northwestern undefeated, but with just one loss Michigan will at least be in The Conversation.
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