NFL Preview and Week 1 Picks

Since I’ve started pulling 14+ hour days between school and work, I haven’t had the time to prepare a full NFL Season preview like I would have liked.  So instead, I’ll do an abridged/cliffnotes version just so I can have my preseason picks down in print should I look really smart (or be able to delete if need be).

AFC East

New England Patriots: 13-3, #1 Seed

New York Jets: 9-7

Buffalo Bills: 8-8

Miami Dolphins: 5-11

I gave a full preview for this one, but I have changed it since I have no faith in Ryan Tannehill.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-6, #2 Seed

Baltimore Ravens: 10-6, #5 Seed

Cincinnati Bengals: 8-8

Cleveland Browns: 3-13

I don’t think the Steelers or Ravens will be able to do much in the playoffs with the significant injuries (whole offensive line and Terrell Suggs respectively) but I believe they can navigate their schedule to get into the playoffs still.  The Bengals are due to regress slightly and the Browns are my odds on favorite to draft Matt Barkeley.  When they do, they can look at it is trading a first round pick for the top pick: by wasting this year’s on Brandon Weeden who most certainly will help them acquire the number one overall pick next year.

AFC South

Houston Texans: 9-7, #3 Seed

Tennessee Titans: 7-9

Indianapolis Colts: 6-10

Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-10

I don’t believe the Texans are as good as some people do, but they are still easily the best team in the worst division in football.  They will get basically 3 rookie quarterbacks, twice each.  Chris Johnson should have a nice bounce back year to keep the Titans competitive, but Jake Locker is not quite there yet.  Andrew Luck will be solid if not spectacular, but he does not have much else around him.  The Jaguars are atrocious, however I think MJD will have a few eff-you games and surprise a few teams.

*AFC West

Denver Broncos: 9-7 #4 Seed

San Diego Chargers: 9-7 #6 Seed

Kansas City Chiefs: 7-9

Oakland Raiders: 7-9

This is risky, but it is all dependent on Peyton Manning being Peyton Manning (and is what Corey and I bet our whole big money fantasy league on by taking him with our second pick in a 2 quarterback league).  If Manning is healthy, he can win this weak division.  Then I have the Chargers sneaking into the playoffs as the one new playoff team this year in the AFC.  Phillip Rivers can’t possibly be that bad again, right?  I’m not as sold as a lot on the Chiefs, and think the Raiders are just as good if not better.  *Disclaimer: if Peyton is not the Peyton we have always knew, the raiders spring board into a playoff spot.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers 12-4, #1 Seed

Chicago Bears: 10-6, #5 Seed

Detroit Lions: 9-7

Minnesota Vikings: 6-10

The Packers will regress slightly, but still run away with the first seed in the NFC.  I am banking my picks (and a couple of fantasy teams) on the Bears offense having an absolute outburst with the additions of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery as well as healthy a Jay Cutler and Matt Forte.  The Lions have had too many off-season distractions, and with suspensions looming on their defense, I don’t see them making the playoffs.  The Vikings will rely on AP coming back healthy, and even though I drafted him a couple of times, he cannot carry this sorry team in this tough division.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons: 9-7, #3 Seed

New Orleans Saints: 9-7

Carolina Panthers: 8-8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5-11

I’m all in on Matt Ryan this year.  I think he will be a top-5 quarterback and help the Falcons win the division.  I also believe that everything will go wrong for New Orleans, and they are closer to being sub-.500 than to the playoffs.  The Panthers are probably a year away on defense, and Tampa just does not do anything for me.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers: 9-7, #4 Seed

Seattle Seahawks: 7-9

Arizona Cardinals: 6-10

St. Louis Rams: 5-11

I’m not buying the continued success of Alex Smith and the 49ers, but the division just is not good enough yet to compete.  Russell Wilson might be the most effective rookie quarterback, and Seattle has a good defense/home field, but it will be tough to score on the road.  Arizona has serious quarterback and running back issues, and the Rams will need time to adjust to Jeff Fisher.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles: 9-7, #2 Seed

Dallas Cowboys: 9-7, #6 Seed

New York Giants: 9-7

Washington Redskins: 6-10

I’m not going to lie; I cheated and switched the Cowboys and Giants since Wednesday.  Not because the way that they looked, but just because the Cowboys got the unexpected win.  I think it will be a cluster at the top, but the Eagles will win by some stupid tie-breaker about parolees on your team.  I’m putting them all at nine wins, but do think the Eagles get the division and Cowboys slip in the last wild card.  The Giants’ secondary just will not hold up all season and RG3 will put up numbers, but there is not enough around him yet.

Playoffs:

So the playoffs as I seem them are:

AFC: New England, Pittsburgh, Houston, Denver, Baltimore and San Diego

NFC: Green Bay, Philadelphia, Atlanta, San Francisco, Chicago and Dallas

Divisional Round:

Denver @ Pittsburgh, San Diego @ New England

Dallas @ Green Bay, Chicago @ Philadelphia

Conference Championships:

Denver @ New England

Chicago @ Green Bay

Super Bowl:

Chicago over New England

I think Jay Cutler figures it out and the skill positions are just too deep in Chicago.  Urlacher will put together one last run and carry the defense emotionally.

Week 1 Picks (Home team in caps):

BEARS -10 over Colts

Luck will not start off as strong as Cam.

Eagles -9.5 over BROWNS

I can’t see a week that I won’t pick against the Browns.

JETS -3 over Bills

Everyone is so against the Jets, that they will use it in week 1 to their advantage.

SAINTS -8 over Redskins

Patriots -5.5 over TITANS

Brady and Brees will want to get off to good starts in their chase for the passing record.

Jaguars +3.5 over Vikings

Just because I think it will be a 3-point game.

Dolphins +13 over TEXANS

This line has just gotten too high.

LIONS -8.5 over Rams

Falcons -3 over Chiefs

Stafford and Ryan get off to strong starts in two blowouts.

BUCCANEERS +2.5 over Panthers

Carolina was awful on the road last year, although I’d like to buy this to 3.

CARDINALS +3 over Seahawks

Another 3-point game and I am just not going to buy into the Russell Wilson hype yet.

PACKERS -5 over 49ers

The 49ers will regress, starting in week 1 as A-Rodg throws for 375.

BRONCOS -2 over Steelers

Peyton will get off to a strong start against a defense he has always been good against.

RAVENS -7 over Bengals

A little high, but I don’t think the Bengals can win so I can’t pick them against the spread.

Chargers +1 over RAIDERS

The start of Phillip Rivers’ comeback tour.