AFC East Predictions

Only twenty-eight sleeps until the start of the NFL season in East Rutherford, New Jersey and I cannot be more excited.  So to help quell my anxiety over the Cowboys’ upcoming season, I decided to do a full NFL preview, division by division.  For those of you who read my baseball preview, my picks are looking quite solid with my World Series picks leading their respective leagues.

AFC EAST:

New England Patriots: 12-4

Possibly the easiest division winner to pick, the Patriots will field a better team than the AFC Champion of last year.  The Bill Belichick-ian way of trading back in the draft to stockpile picks of previous drafts helped New England get one of the best pass rushers in the draft (Chandler Jones) and the second best linebacker, Dont’a Hightower in the first round.  With their pass-rush and linebacker core as their biggest weaknesses, the Patriots seemed to have addressed them with first round talent.  New England’s secondary will also get a boost from second rounder Tavon Wilson, as well as Alfonzo Dennard who was once considered a first-round talent until off the field issues popped up. 

While Tom Brady is getting older, he is not really showing it.  The same goes for Wes Welker who may not be happy with his current contract situation, but he will play hard nevertheless.  Rob Gronkowski looks to have another great season as teams cannot just focus on him thanks to the presence of Aaron Hernandez on the other side.  If one of their backs can fill the hole left by Benjarvus Green-Ellis, then the offense looks to be even better this year than last.

The schedule also works out for the Patriots as the AFC East drew the (arguably) weakest divisions in the NFL, the NFC West and AFC South.  With gimme games with the Cardinals, Colts, Rams, Jaguars and Titans, New England will definitely threaten 14 or 15 wins.  They also get tougher game such as the Texans, 49ers and Broncos at home (how did they get the three of the four division champions' games at home??).  However, I think that they will have a nice cushion for the #1 seed by week 15 or so and shut it down. 

New York Jets: 9-7

Hey, I’m not sure if you have heard, but the Jets traded for Time Tebow!! As much as ESPN has forced the Jets down our throats, I doubt anyone has yet to hear that.  The stupidest part is that Tebow is not even one of the two most important additions to this Jets’ team.  Quinton Coples has top-5 talent but slipped to the Jets at 16 due to character issues.  I think Rex Ryan will unleash the beast in Coples and he will thrive in the Jets’ defense.  Stephen Hill will provide an athletic specimen to line up across from Santonio Holmes.  At 6’4’’ and running a 4.36 40-yard dash, Hill might have been the best overall athlete to come out this year.  If he can hang on to the ball then he will have a big season.

Tebow will provide the Jets with the most versatile goal-line offense outside of Carolina’s.  What he will also bring will be constant debate over whether he should start over Sanchez.  I think this will bring the best out in Sanchez and he will have his best season yet, relegating Tebow to his special teams and special situations role and the vicious New York media to focus on the Giants’ problems (more about those in an ensuing post).

As mentioned with the Patriots, the Jets have the luxury of a soft cross-conference/cross-division matchup.  Also like New England, the New York gets both the 49ers and Texans at home.  However, the Jets do play three of their last four on the road.  The one luxury is that the home game in that stretch is against the Chargers, who they will be battling for a wild-card spot with.  I think a split with the 49ers/Texans and the Chargers’ game will get New York to nine wins.

Buffalo Bills: 8-8

The Bills made the biggest free agent splash in the NFL by landing Mario Williams over the off-season to provide a top-notch pass-rushing end as they switch back to the 4-3.  Williams adds to the Kyle Williams/Marcell Dareus defensive tackle combination, and if Shawne Merriman can be even a shell of his former self than the Bills rival the Giants for the best D-Line in the league.  While their linebackers are below par, the drafting of Stephon Gilmore is huge for the secondary.  I’m all in on Gilmore after repeatedly betting on South Carolina the past few seasons and seeing his playmaking ability.  He shores up a decent set of defensive backs with Leodis McKelvin, Jairus Byrd and George Wilson.

The offense roared into last season like a herd of buffalo but whimpered out like a lamb.  Ryan Fitzpatrick was putting up the best numbers of his career until getting his massive contract extension.  However, I think the drop-off had more to do with him never starting a full season until last year.  I expect a solid 4,000+ yards, and even if he gets hurt the addition of Vince Young gives them a viable back-up.  Buffalo’s running back situation is solid with Fred Jackson-C.J. Spiller-Tashard Choice, so if just one of their wide receivers besides Steve Johnson breaks out (I’m looking at you David Nelson) than Buffalo has a chance to be a year ahead of schedule in competing for the playoffs.

Once again, the scheduling Gods favor the AFC East, just not the Bills as much.  They have to travel to San Francisco and Houston, but do not have to make the cross-country trip to Seattle.  I think that if the Bills can split with either the Jets or the Patriots then they could crack the 9-win barrier.  Nevertheless, I don’t think either split will happen.

Miami Dolphins: 7—9

The Hard Knocks’ Darlings of the year, the Dolphins (in my opinion) reached too far to find their next franchise quarterback.  Ryan Tannehill is a phenomenal athlete, and may end up being a solid quarterback, but Miami might have been better off waiting for next year’s deep crop of quarterbacks.  With good DB’s and WR’s (the Dolphins’ weakest positions) still on the board that could help build a better situation for a quarterback, the Dolphins took the project-Tannehill.  They might have been better off just drafting Gilmore to help a secondary that only had 16 interceptions all of last year, and playing the season out with David Garrard at quarterback (which it looks like he will start the year anyway).

Chad Whatever-his-last-name-is-this-year did not have much to offer the Patriots last year, and I’m skeptical how much he has left in the tank.  With that sad, he might be the best receiver on the roster.  Brian Hartline and Legedu Naanee?  AND they did not draft a receiver until the seventh round?  It looks like Reggie Bush will be a quality pick-up in a Points Per Reception fantasy league.

As much as I have hated on the Dolphins, I still see them getting seven wins.  With home games against Oakland, St. Louis, Tennessee, Seattle and Jacksonville, the Dolphins only need to steal a couple of road/divisional games and will be sitting at 7 wins.  The best case scenario for this season, David Garrard playing as well as 2007 (18-3 TD-INT, 102.2 rating) would be the worst case scenario for the franchise (quarterback controversy, Tannehill not getting to develop in-game).