I, like almost every single other Mavs’ Fan, was completely
lost, disgruntled and upset by the first week of the NBA free agency
period. However, Mark Cuban and Donnie
Nelson have absolutely dominated the last ten days. The ultimate scenario for the past year had
been to acquire both Deron Williams and Dwight Howard via free agency with all
of the cap space built by Dallas. Howard
nixed that plan by re-upping for another year with the Magic, so the plan then
had a singular focus: Deron. As much as
some like to just spout out, “free agents just don’t come to Dallas” as the reasoning
behind Deron spurning the Mavericks, I firmly believe that had the Nets not
acquired Joe Johnson he would be playing in the AAC next season. It was not that the Mavs’ front office did a
bad job… more of that the Nets’ did a better job.
So then we all sat, wondering what the hell the Mavericks
were going to do. Would they tank the
season, in hopes of getting a high lottery pick? Would they sign some spares for 1-year deals
and hope to lure Dwight, Andrew Bynum or Chris Paul next summer? Would they do
the blasphemous deed of trading the German Savior? So then that’s when I saw very plainly the
best option and tweeted the following:
“July
11th: @Tomlin3: Ok, missed on Deron.. But why haven’t the Mavs at
least signed OJ Mayo, Raymond Felton and Kaman, the last two to big 1-year
deals???”
It seemed so simple:
grab the best Center, Shooting Guard and Point Guard still available and then
combined with Dirk, Marion, Wright, West, the rookies you have a very
respectable 3 or 4 seed that Dirk could work with. Then when it seemed as if Elton Brand was an
option, I completely was on board with adding him as a 6th
man/backup big.
Then the news broke that Kaman would be coming to the
Mavericks. Out of what I wanted the team
to do, this seemed the most likely with the German national team connection
between Kaman and Dirk. The next move
was the one that shows how much more Donnie Nelson and Mark Cuban know about
what they are doing than all of us. Whenever
Indiana was serious about trading Dallas their starting point guard and best
wing-defender/spot up 3-point shooter, I had to agree with the AP that it had
to of been hard to not laugh, thinking it was a joke. Especially just for a guy that was a FREE
AGENT. The Pacers could have just signed
Mahimi away, but somehow Cubes/Donnie got back a starting point guard and 7th
man for a free agent who would have been the 8th or 9th
guy off of the bench (I’ll get more to analyzing Collison and Jones in a bit). Then the Mavs won the Brand amnesty auction at
a very reasonable $2.1 million. Finally
this morning, I woke up and checked my Twitter driving into work and what do I
see? The final piece: Mayo agreeing to a
deal with Dallas.
Very rarely do we see our favorite sports’ teams do exactly
(in this case even better than I thought) what we want/think they should
do. In this case it actually
happened. Now I want to back up the
Dallas front office because of all the recent t-shirt fans who like to blame
everything on the two guys most responsible for bringing Dallas a title (not
named Dirk of course). So let’s compare
the team that the Mavericks’ would most likely have today if they decided to
resign the guys from the title team, as to the team as it stands now.
If the Mavericks would have resigned Tyson Chandler last
summer to the 4 year/$60+ million he was looking for, then they would have had
to just resign everyone since there would be no cap flexibility in the near
future. So then you’re talking about
re-signing DeShawn Stevenson, J.J. Barea, and Caron Butler to about what they
all got from other teams, 2/$5, 4/$18, and 3/$24m respectively. Whether or not that team could have competed
with OKC or the Spurs this year is another argument that I will gladly win
against anyone willing, but Dallas would most likely be in the same predicament
now regarding re-signing Kidd for 3/$9.1m, Terry 3/$15m and Ian Mahimi 4/16m. So when combined with Dirk’s remaining 2/$43m
and Marion’s 2/$18m, is a total of about $77 million. Now if Dallas did go this route, would they
have used their amnesty on Haywood? I think it might be 50/50 considering the
lack of other options, so if they did not there would be another $6.3m from him
and $2.5 from Roddy/DoJo for a team salary of $86 million, just over $4 million
more than the champion Heat. Think about
that for a second: Dirk, Jet, Tyson, Kidd, Marion, Butler, Stevenson, Barea,
Mahimi, Haywood, Roddy B, DoJo for $86 million.
.
.
.
Yes I know that team
won a title, but that was a perfect storm of good matchups, timely shooting,
timely bad opponent’s shooting, and two teams (OKC and Miami) just not quite ready
to take over yet. There’s no way in hell
that 12-man roster could beat the Heat or Thunder in a 7-game series this year
or next.
So let’s now compare that heart of the two rosters
starting with the biggest “disparity” (or only as everyone sees it):
Starting
Center: 2010/11 Tyson Chandler vs. 2012/13 Chris Kaman
Let’s start off with a blind test, because the majority
of the difference in opinion betweens these two players comes from how they
look when they play (athletic black guy dunking on people, blocking shots into
the stands vs. the goofy white dude with a beard who makes baby hooks and
catches his own blocks). Last year, one
of these two average 14 points, 10 rebounds and 2 blocks per 36 minutes and the
other averaged 11 points, 11.4 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per 36 minutes. Guess which player had which averages…. In
case you are bad with context clues, Kaman actually average more points AND
blocks per 36 minutes. He played less
than Chandler because of injuries and New Orleans tanking for the Unibrow, but
their overall averages (11.3/9.9/1.4 for Tyson vs. 13.1/7.7/1.6 for Kaman) are
not that different either. (All of these
stats are viewable at basketball-reference.com should you not believe me)
Let’s look at their overall careers too:
|
PPG
|
RPG
|
BPG
|
FT %
|
|
|
Chris Kaman
|
11.9
|
8.3
|
1.4
|
74%
|
|
Tyson Chandler
|
8.6
|
8.9
|
1.4
|
63%
|
Let’s also look at
their best season at each:
|
PPG
|
RPG
|
BPG
|
FT %
|
|
|
Chris
Kaman
|
18.5
|
12.7
|
2.8
|
79%
|
|
Tyson
Chandler
|
11.8
|
12.4
|
1.8
|
73%
|
|
|
Statistically, Kaman is
a better player. Even when you look at
their best seasons, Kaman actually put most of his together, as he averaged
15.7 ppg, 12.7 rpg, and 2.8 bpg in the same season, while Tyson chandler has
only averaged a double/double once in his career, in 2007/08.
Now I’m not saying Kaman is a better player. The eye test does at least tell you that
statistics do not mean everything, and advanced metrics also give Chandler the
edge. However, it is really not by much:
|
Dreb%
|
Treb%
|
PER
|
|
|
Chris Kaman
|
23.8
|
16.3
|
14.5
|
|
Tyson Chandler
|
24.1
|
18.3
|
15.8
|
Their rebounding percentages are similar and their
PER (Player Efficiency Rating) are close as well. The average PER for the NBA is 15, with
LeBron having the high of 27.2. The PER
favors wing players so the average for centers is probably more around 11 or
12. So if all of these statistics point
to the players being of similar value, then why the common perception that
Tyson is far and away the better option?
One factor is injuries: Kaman has been hurt for a portion
of the past few seasons. However, Tyson
Chandler was the injury concern until his season with Dallas and he even missed
some time in each of the past 4 seasons.
The next argument is the generic, “But Tyson was the Defensive Player of
the Year” ignorance. To that, I have to
say that he only won it because Dwight Howard got hurt, and the media does not
want to give LeBron every award (I DARE someone to argue that LeBron is not the
best defensive player after the clinic he put on the last 7 games of the
playoffs). The award is about the
perception of Tyson, when really how far did he get his Knicks team in the
playoffs? You know, the team that has not one, but TWO superstars? Oh, the same
level as Dallas last year? Once again, I’m
not saying Kaman is a better option than Tyson Chandler. I do however, firmly believe that the
difference between the two is about 2 wins a season, if not less, if you want
to use baseball terms. If you put Kaman
in Chandler’s spot in 2011, I’m not so sure that they Mavs don’t win it all
still. The kicker is Kaman is only six
months older than Chandler, with 180 less games on his NBA odometer (due to
Tyson coming out of high school, not injuries.)
The center is just not as big of a factor anymore either. Of the final four teams in the playoffs last
season, the starting centers were: Serge Ibaka, Kevin Garnett, Boris Diaw, and
Chris Bosh. All are power forwards
playing center. This small difference
will not make or break the Mavericks.
Second
Scoring Option/Shooting Guard: 2010/11 Jason Terry vs. 2012/2013 O.J. Mayo
I promise the rest of the comparisons will not be as long,
but I just had to make a point about the annoying perception that Tyson
Chandler was the savior, when in fact, he was the 4th best player on
the championship team. The 3rd
best player on that team was Jason Terry, whom the Mavs let walk away to the Celtics. My feelings about Jason Terry have already
been shown here. I’m sure we will be seeing a Grantland piece
by Bill Simmons’ issuing the same frustrations within the first 15 games of
next season. What the Mavericks just did
by signing Mayo was upgrade their second scoring option significantly.
Mayo
has been stuck in a bad situation the past two seasons in Memphis. He is a creator with the ball who can get his
own shot whenever he wants. The
Grizzlies have become a low-post dominant team with Zach Randolph and Marc
Gasol, and used Mayo off the bench to add defensive depth to the starting lineup
to counter the defensive liabilities at their other two perimeter spots. With Shawn Marion sharing the wing in Dallas,
I expect Mayo to start and thrive with the Mavericks. In Mayo’s first two seasons in the league, he
started every game he played in and averaged 18 points, 3 assists, and 3.3
rebounds a game while shooting 45% from the field and 38.5 percent from 3’s. For comparison, Jet has averaged 15.4 points,
3.8 assists and 2.2 rebounds a game while shooting 44% from the field and 37%
from 3’s the past two seasons. Even the
last two seasons with Mayo playing less, he still put up 16.3 points, 3.6
rebounds and 3 assists per 36 minutes.
His shooting percentages dropped, but that can be attributed to the fact
that there were no other perimeter shooters on the floor with him the majority
of the time.
Not
only are Mayo’s numbers slightly better than Terry’s, he is ten years younger,
more effective off the dribble, and not a complete defensive burden. Mayo can finish at the rack and is a solid 4
inches taller than Terry giving a more physical prowess to an increasingly
bigger position in the league. Mayo also
is a durable player, only missing 11 games in his first 4 season, 10 due to a
suspension over a supplement in an energy drink and 1 due to bronchitis. This Mayo signing will probably end up being
the most beneficial long-term, because he has the potential to be a superstar
in this league. With Rick Carlisle
coaching him, Mayo finally has a firm but informative teacher to mold his
game. We also do not have to ever watch
Jet take a terrible momentum-killing three-pointer again.
Point
Guard: 2010/11 Jason Kidd vs. 2012/13 Darren Collison
This has to be an even more obvious upgrade than the last
comparison to the people with knowledge of players outside of the
Mavericks. Jason Kidd is one of the best
point guards of all-time and he left it all out there during the 2011
playoffs. However, I think that was all
he had left to give. The league is
trending toward a quicker, more scoring point guard: Russell Westbrook, Derrick
Rose, Deron Williams, Chris Paul and so on.
Rajon Rondo is really the only non-scoring point guard left in the
elite. Darren Collison fits that bill
perfected, although he has slipped under the radar. I even forgot to add him into the group of
point guards who are just on the outside of the elite, or just on that next
tier down. He is a career 12.1 points
and 5.2 assists guy who can get to the basket at will due to his
quickness. His shooting percentages are
even more impressive as he shoots 45% from the field and 36.3 from 3’s. Compare these numbers to Jason Kidd’s over
the last couple of seasons at 7 points, 7 assists, 40% from the field and 34.5%
from 3’s. It may seem like a downgrade
as far as assists go, but Collison has never had a Dirk Nowitzki to get easy
perimeter assists off of jump shots.
More important than the numbers, the Mavericks have
injected youth into the team by replacing the 34-year old Terry and 39-year old
Kidd with two 24-year old players. After
the Mavericks sign their rookies, their average age will be 28, closer to the
youngest teams in the league rather than the oldest. Collison also will provide some help against
the quicker point guards in the league, where it used to be Shawn Marion having
to switch over guarding out of position.
Wing
Defender/Spot-Up 3-Point Shooter: 2010/11 DeShawn Stevenson vs. 2012/13 Dahntay
Jones
DeShawn Stevenson brought some toughness to the perimeter
for the title team, a role Dahntay Jones can gill in nicely. Jones, an inch taller than Stevenson, is the
same age and more athletic/strong. He
can guard any perimeter position and will be a good backup to split time with
Shawn Marion. Jones is a career 35.5%
3-point shooter opposed to DeShawn Stevenson at 33.7%. Jones is only getting better too, as he shot
43% from behind the arc last season. The
players are very similar, but Jones is a slightly better shooter which will
benefit Dallas better now with penetrators Collison and Mayo.
Backup
Big: 2010/11 Brendan Haywood vs. 2012/13 Elton Brand
After looking at the statistics, I am even more excited
about this upgrade. Brand is not the
All-Star he used to be, but by no means is washed up. I feel like he has been in the league for
forever, yet he is only 33 years old (a year older than Haywood). Last year Brand averaged 11 points and 7.2
rebounds, much lower than his career averages of 18.3 and 9.4. However, he was well rested on a deep Philadelphia
team with a coach who also wanted to not wear out his aging big man. His per-36 averages last season were a solid
13.7 points and 8.9 rebounds. Haywood
during the championship season had per-36 averages of 8.7 points and 10.2
rebounds.
Brand’s back-to-the-basket game might not complement Dirk
in the best way, but I’m sure Dirk can find a way to make it work. Kaman and Brand worked well together in Los
Angeles, even bringing the Clippers to the playoffs for the first time in
years. Another upgrade that I’m looking
forward to is not seeing Haywood’s 47% from the line, as Brand is a career 74%
free-throw shooter.
Bench:
2010/11 J.J. Barea, Roddy B., Dominique Jones vs. 2012/13 Vince Carter, Brandon
Wright, Roddy B., Dominique Jones, Jae Crowder, Jared Cunningham
While Barea did have a big hand in a few key games in the
playoff run of 2011, I was never a fan of his contributions and have longed
believe Roddy B could provide the same type of effort. Moreover, Roddy and DoJo each have two more
years under their belts and from the first couple of summer league games Jones
seems to be finding his scoring touch again.
Vince Carter can still break out old-school VC moments when the team is
in need of them. Brandon Wright provides
another athletic big to provide a change of pace to the bigger/slower
Dirk/Brand/Kaman. Crowder and Cunningham
probably won’t have an impact now, but should any of the perimeter core get
hurt, I trust those two just as much as I would have in 2011 with Roddy and
Jones.
So
there it is, a full player-by-player comparison of the title team of 2011 to
the current Mavericks’ roster. I know I
didn’t compare Dirk/Marion, but neither seemed to lose much over last year and
I fully expect a strong bounce back year from Dirk. To recap, I’m giving an edge to the title
team at center, but I’ll take the current team at shooting guard (starter and
backup), point guard, backup big man and the bench is basically a wash. This current team definitely has a scoring
advantage with Kaman/Collison/Mayo being a better scoring trio than
Chandler/Kidd/Terry, which will take the defensive pressure off of Dirk.
Once
again, I’m not saying that this team is now the odds-on favorite to win the
title next year. However, I’m not
counting them out now. I’ll still put
the Heat, Thunder, and Spurs as the top 3 teams in the league…. But I cannot
safely say that any other team is really that much better than the Mavericks
right now. I’ll have to see how well
Nash fits in with the Lakers; as well as how the Grizzlies can handle not
having Mayo’s scoring punch. I don’t
know if Blake Griffin’s knee will hold out for the Clippers or if they can
continue to progress. The Knicks are in
complete disarray and the Celtics have just gotten older. The 76ers/Pacers each lost key pieces to this
Mavericks’ team. So which of those teams
is really a clearly better team? If I
had to put a seed on Dallas today, I would give them a 3-5 range, with 3 being
more of a possibility than 5. Before you
get up in arms, let’s remember the title team was a 3 seed.
What
I can do and safely say is that right now, going into the 2012/2013 NBA season,
I am more confident about this Dallas Mavericks team’s championship chances
than I was about the 2010/2011 team. This
is a younger, more athletic team, who will be just as hungry with only a few
players who have won it all before. Most
importantly, Donnie Nelson and Mark Cuban were able to orchestrate all of this
without sacrificing their ultimate goal of cap space next summer. As of now, the team will be just at the cap
level of $58 million, depending on the Mayo contract, with about $15 million in
space for next summer.
Dallas
has also made it more attractive to the likes of Dwight Howard and Andrew
Bynum: instead of just Dirk, those two big guys could be thinking a
Dirk-Collison-Mayo trio is something they would like to join. We will have to see how well they mesh
together this season, I just know now though that Cuban/Nelson had a backup
plan, and it has worked out about as well as can be after missing on
Deron. No one can say that the front
office did not try or was not prepared.
I mean, a year from now we could be looking at a starting lineup of
Collison-Mayo-a suddenly emergent Jae Crowder-Dirk-Dwight Howard…. I’ll stop
before getting ahead of myself.
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