NFL Week 4 Picks

I was a bad call away from a 10 win week last week, but I will take 9-7.  My teaser of the week was an easy win, as well as a few others I combined with college games.  I was not able to look into picking last night’s game due to my car blowing up.  The trends continued as touchdown-favorites went 1-3 against the spread and home underdogs were 5-3-1 against the number (depending on if you got the Dolphins at +2.5 or +3).  The AFC did have a bounce back going 3-1 against the NFC to even up the conferences a little more.  For the season, the home-dogs are now 13-6-1 and the touchdown-dogs are 8-2-1.  The trends are not in play as much this week, however, with only three 7 or more point favorites and no home underdog over +4.5.

 

Patriots -4 over BILLS

There’s just no way that New England will lose 3 in a row right?  Since 2003, the Patriots have only lost two games in a row 4 times, and not once have they lost three in a row.  Coming into this season, the Patriots were also 27-3 coming off of a loss in that time period.  And if the Bills cannot win the game, then I will not pick them to cover. 

VIKINGS +4.5 over Lions

Minnesota is quietly sitting at 2-1 with possibly the best win of the season over the already anointed 49ers last week.  Peterson looks fully healthy while Stafford does not.  I’m not quite sure that the Vikings will win, but I can definitely see them keeping it close, especially as a home underdog.

FALCONS -7 over Panthers

I am sure you have seen the stats about Cam Newton’s passing regression since his first few games, and he looked dreadful last week.  The Falcons on the other hand, have been beating up the AFC West going 3-0 against the division, winning by an average of 12 points.

JETS +4 over 49ers

I am guessing everyone will be all over the 49ers to have a bounce back week, but I am still not sold that they are really that good.  That vaunted defense made Christian Ponder look like Aaron Rodgers last week.  I think if the Jets can get a lead, then get into their Jesus-Cat formation, they can hold off San Fran.

Chargers -1 over CHIEFS

I think this is an over-shift of the line from the results of last week.  However, Jamaal Charles is not rushing for 233 each week, and the Chargers do not have to face the Falcons each week.  I would have put this more at -5 or -6, so I will grab the extra points.  I still have the Chargers making the playoffs.

TEXANS -12 over Titans

As much as that big number scares me, Houston has taken care of business against weaker competition like the Titans (Miami and Jacksonville) and won by 20 points both games.  Throw in the fact that it is in Houston, and I guess I will take the Texans.  Although I will not bet it straight, but I will throw them in every possible 3-Team Teaser.

Seahawks -3 over RAMS

I switched this pick twice before settling.  First I thought the Seahawks were just better than the Rams.  However, the home underdog as well as the fact that without the special teams’ breakdown of the Cowboys, the Seahawks point differential would be even after three games.  Then I remembered that Steven Jackson is hurting and the Seahawks had about 59 sacks Monday.  I guess I will take Seattle, but I do not feel confident. 

CARDINALS -5.5 over Dolphins

Well, Kevin Kolb has made me a believer, as I even picked him up on one of my fantasy teams.  Although I am sure that this week will be the regression week, but I just cannot take Tannehill and an injured Reggie Bush on the road.

Raiders +7 over BRONCOS

This feels just a couple of points too high to me.  I think that Denver will win, but not by more than a touchdown.  McGahee is ailing and the Raiders are not as bad as people think.  Then there is the touchdown favorite trend in play.

Bengals -2.5 over JAGUARS

The Bengals’ offense has been clicking but so has MJD.  This is another game that I will not touch with my bets, but I will give the edge to the Bengals because they do not have Blaine Gabbert throwing passes for their team.

PACKERS -7.5 over Saints

The battle of the two most screwed-over teams of this season!  The Packers will be playing with a vengeance to make sure that no one single call can decide this game.  I would probably take them at -14.  The more intriguing number with this game is the over/under sitting at 53.5.  Is there any doubt that that will be demolished?

Redskins +2.5 over BUCS

I would like this line a whole lot better at 3, but will settle for the 2.5.  I think it is a field goal-game, and if I had to pick a winner, I’d go with the Redskins after how dreadful Tampa’s offense was last week against Dallas.  Another O/U number of 47.5 that is very intriguing.

EAGLES 1.5 over Giants

Philadelphia has the 5^th best offense overall and the 5^th best defense overall.  If they can figure out their turnover problems then they are golden.  I know that their point differential is -19, but I will take them at home with a Michael Vick huge game.

Bears +3 over COWBOYS

I picked Chicago to win the Super Bowl and I am still not backing down.  This is not a must-win for them as much as it is for Dallas toward their own playoff chances.  The loss of Barry Church will be huge if Sensabaugh cannot go.  Cutler could exploit the deceivingly rated Dallas Pass Defense, which has gotten 2 of the bottom 4 passers the past couple of weeks.

 

3-Team 10-Point Teaser of the Week:

New England +6, New Orleans vs. Green Bay OVER 43.5, and Houston -2.

Other good 10-Point options: Washington/Tampa Bay OVER 37.5, Green Bay +2, San Diego +9, Arizona/Miami UNDER 49, and New York Giants +12.5

 

Last week: 9-7

Overall: 26-19-2