NFL Week 3 Picks

Well I had a .500 week last week, but hit on most of my bets through teasers and only betting on the right games.  I was still 11-5 straight up but my money line parlay was ruined again, this time by the Patriots.  Though it is early in the season, two main trends have begun to stand out once again: the home underdog and the Touchdown-underdog.  Through the first two weeks of the season, the home-dog is 8-3 against the number and the touchdown-dog is 5-1-1.  One more trend to look at as the season progress is the inter-conference matchups.  The NFC is a solid 5-3 against the spread against the AFC, but even more impressive straight up at 7-1.  Lastly I did jinx myself with my Twitter (@Tomlin3) pick by going with the Panthers last night.  I wanted to pick the Giants but was thrown off by the amount of people on them.  Either way, I’m off to an 0-1 start so I need to come back strong.

 

Home team in Caps

BEARS -7.5 over Rams

This first one is rough as it breaks the touchdown-favorite trend, but I just do not see the Rams winning, especially with a gimpy Steven Jackson.  I’m probably going to buy it to -7 and tease the hell out of the Bears winning the game.

Buccaneers +8.5 over COWBOYS

This is breaking one of my gambling laws (do not bet on the dog if you do not think they can win the game) but the line has moved up too high.  It started at 6.5 and the Cowboys’ faithful have bet hard.  I think the Cowboys win, but getting to a 9-point victory seems to be a bit of a stretch.

49ers -6.5 over VIKINGS

This line has actually moved toward the Vikings (started at -7) which brings them under the touchdown-favorite trend.  They still fit the home-dog trend and I will probably tease them up to +13, but I cannot give them less than a touchdown.

Lions -3.5 over TITANS

I switched this one around about five times, but I decided to stay with the NFC rule over the home-underdog trend.  I would like it a whole lot more at 3, and probably will not bet it unless it gets down the half-point.

Bengals +3 over REDSKINS

I am going against the NFC/AFC trend just because I see this as a field-goal-game.  RG3 has to have at least one bad game early, right?  The Bengals are also better than Vegas is giving them credit for.

Jets -2.5 over DOLPHINS

I doubt Reggie Bush will be able to rush for 175 yards again, especially against the Jets’ defense. 

Chiefs +9 over SAINTS

I like it a whole lot more at 10, and hopefully it gets pushed up there.  Another game to thrown in a 10-point teaser with the Chiefs at +19 or even the Saints at +1.  It is a must-win for the Saints but their defense is just atrocious.

BROWNS +3 over Bills

One team (the Browns) has been trending up after their first two games while the other (the Bills) has been trending down.  Throw in the home-dog trend and I guess I will pick Brandon Weeden…

Bills -3 over BROWNS

I could not give in just yet…

COLTS -3 over Jaguars

The Colts and Andrew Luck grew up big time last week, and upon further review of their schedule, they might be in position to be in the playoff picture.  They have to win this game and they have to know that this is a must-win if they want to make some noise this season.  If they do win, they have a stretch of Cleveland, Tennessee, Miami, Jacksonville along with games against Buffalo, Tennessee and Kansas City… that’s eight games against the bottom 10 teams in the league and if they take care of business then all of a sudden they might be playing for a playoff spot against the Texans (who will probably have clinched already) in week 17.

Eagles -3 over CARDINALS

Everything (home-dog, better record, Eagles/Vick have not looked good) is telling me to take the Cardinals but I just cannot make myself pick Kevin Kolb.  I just can’t.

Falcons +3 over CHARGERS

Research has shown that the east coast team flying to the west coast after a Monday night game on short rest is actually better than normal.  I also think the Falcons are just a better team than the Chargers, although I do still have the Chargers making the playoffs.

BRONCOS +2 over Texans

I know that this is not the same Texans’ team, and Peyton does not have the same Colts’ team around him, but Manning is 16-2 in his career against the Texans.  Throw in the fact that the Broncos are a home-dog and I like it.

RAIDERS +4 over Steelers

I still just do not think the Steelers are that good.  The Raiders are due for a big McFadden performance and will ride him the whole game.

Patriots +3 over RAVENS

If the Patriots were the ones favored by 3 then I would take the Ravens.  It just feels like another close game, so give me the points when I can get them.

Packers -3 over SEAHAWKS

The Seahawks are not as good as they looked last weekend against the Cowboys.  If any team gets a fumble recovery on the opening kick, then blocks a punt for a touchdown the next possession, all at home, they better win by 20.  Aaron Rodgers will have the time that Tony Romo did not, and he will use it well.

3-Team 10-Point Teaser of the Week:
OVER 43 in Saints/Chiefs, Falcons +8, Patriots +12.5

This week: 0-1

Last week: 7-7-2

Overall: 17-12-2