College Football Preview: ACC

The ACC has added two new members, Pittsburgh and Syracuse with Louisville coming in next season.  As it expands, the conference as a whole has gotten deeper and better, but the top is still quite short of the top tier of teams in the nation.  With that said, this might be the year that an ACC team makes it to the National Championship.

Hoping for a Bowl-All six of these teams have a shot at a bowl game, and it will come down to the swing games amidst themselves.

Boston College Eagles, 3-9

Syracuse Orange, 4-8

Pittsburgh Panthers, 4-8

Virginia Cavaliers, 5-7

Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 5-7

Duke Blue Devils, 6-6

                Boston College is a senior laden team (over half of their starters) but the problem is that these seniors just are not that good.  Only outside linebacker Kevin Pierre-Louis figures to be drafted and it will probably be near the end of day three.  The schedule is no cake walk either besides their three easy non-conference games.  The Eagles’ last non-conference game is a cross-country trip to USC, they draw North Carolina and Virginia Tech from the Coastal division, and only have one home game against the bottom half of the league.  They might improve on their 2012 record of 2-10 but not by much.

                Syracuse embarks on their ACC journey with a new head coach since Doug Marrone is now coaching the Buffalo Bills.  Gone also are quarterback Ryan Nassib and offensive lineman Justin Pugh, two of the biggest reasons (besides Marrone) that the Orange finished 8-5 last year.  Sean Hickey could end up being a first round pick next year if there is another flood of tackles and Jerome Smith is one of the best backs in the conference, but the rest of the roster leaves something to be desired.  Syracuse also has two tough non-conference games against Penn State and at Northwestern as well as a brutal road schedule in conference.  This will definitely be a rebuilding year for the Orange.

                Pittsburgh starts its own ACC voyage opening the season with a home game against the Seminoles.  This could be a brutal wake up call to just how weak the Big East has been the past few years.  Tom Savage returns at quarterback but this is another roster devoid of next-level talent.  The ACC schedules were not kind to the Panthers where they might not be favored in a single conference game.

                I actually really like Virginia and think that after their next two strong recruiting classes, they could be a force in the ACC.  However, their difficult non-conference schedule will hold them back from a bowl this season.  While both games are at home, opening the season with BYU and Oregon has to be one of the hardest (if not most difficult) start to any season in the country.  If Phillip Sims had not transferred, I would like this team even more, but with absolutely no experience at quarterback, the Cavaliers are not quite ready yet.

                Wake Forest returns one of the most experience quarterbacks in the nation with Tanner Price.  The four-year starter could be without the Deacons’ leading returning rusher as Josh Harris might be ruled academically ineligible.  Price will have the ACC’s returning reception leader Michael Campanaro to throw to, and he also doubles as the top pro prospect on the team.  The defense has become one of the ACC’s best as a complete unit, but the offensive line has already been hurt by injuries.  I think a bowl game will be on the line in the last game of the season, at Vanderbilt.

                Duke went to a bowl for the first time in 18 years last season, and they will be looking for another trip this fall.  The Blue Devils will have to replace starting quarterback Sean Renfree, but Anthony Boone should be a solid replacement.  Boone has been good, but not spectacular in relief roles the past two seasons completing over half his passes for almost 1,000 yards and 6 touchdowns to 3 interceptions.  Against Virginia, Boone threw for 4 touchdowns while also adding 41 yards on the ground leading Duke to the upset win.  Cornerback Ross Cockrell is also one of the best in the conference.  The non-conference schedule should give Duke four easy wins and carry them to a bowl for a second consecutive year.

The Middle Tier-These teams are very close in expectations for the year, but still stand a clear level above the top.

Maryland Terrapins, 6-6

North Carolina State Wolfpack, 7-5

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 8-4

Miami Hurricanes, 9-3

North Carolina Tar Heels, 10-2

                Maryland had the worst quarterback luck I have ever seen, as they were down to their FIFTH string quarterback, who started the season as a linebacker.  The Terrapins were 4-2 before the rash of QB injuries, which led to a six-game season-ending losing streak.  With C.J. Brown given a sixth year of eligibility, he should handle the role well this fall.  Ricardo Young might get some repetitions too to provide a dual-threat change of pace, but either way the roster is deep enough around them to get six wins easy, and I consider that the floor for their season.

                North Carolina State lost its quarterback and half of its defensive backfield to the NFL draft, but retains enough talent to breeze into a bowl with a weak non-conference schedule.  The Wolfpack will be quarterbacked by someone other than Sean Glennon for the first time since Russell Wilson was still there.  Brandon Mitchell should win the job and he will have three quality receiving options in tight end Asa Watson, and receivers Quintin Payton and Rashard Smith.  N.C. State is good for one big upset a year (last year over Florida State, the year before over Clemson) and I think they get another this year to place them firmly in a bowl.

                Due to NCAA sanctions to other teams, Georgia Tech received a place in the ACC Championship Game last year despite a .500 record.  The Yellow Jackets should be better this season with as many as six defensive players that could be drafted.  That group is led by pass rusher Jeremiah Attaochu who could parlay a big year into a first round draft grade.  Vad Lee takes over the triple option and in his one game of extensive action proved himself capable: 60% completions, 169 yards passing, 112 yards rushing and three total touchdowns.  If the non-conference schedule was not so harsh (at BYU and Georgia) then Paul Johnson’s team could be looking at double digit wins.

                Miami returns 30 different players that started games last year, including at least one at every single position.  Their entire offensive line is back along with their top two receivers and tight end.  Stephen Morris is back under center and being touted as a possible first round pick.  Morris completed almost 60% of his passes for 3,345 yards and 21 touchdowns last season and his efforts at the Manning Passing Academy have NFL people buzzing.  Morris will have Seantrel Henderson protecting his blindside, a top-5 tackle in the country.  The defense returns the majority starter at every position besides cornerback and this group could be the fastest defense in the nation.  Al Golden has done a great job with a quick rebuild of the Hurricane program and like the next team, Miami might be an SEC upset away from a BCS game.

North Carolina has always had as much NFL-talent as anyone and this year is no different.  Bryn Renner returns as quarterback after throwing for 3,356 yards on 66% completions, 28 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions.  His total efficiency was down from his sophomore season, but he turned the ball over less and gained more total yards.  Renner has the size and arm of a top-level quarterback and if he can continue to improve his accuracy then he could hear his name called quite early next spring.  The offensive line will be rebuilt after three members were drafted, and playmaker Giovani Bernard is gone as well, but the Tar Heels have NFL talent to fill in with James Hurst and A.J. Blue.  The defense is star studded with as many as four top-3 round talents led by Kareem Martin the 23^rd ranked prospect for next year’s draft.  I do not think that they can, but if North Carolina pulls the upset over South Carolina on August 29^th, this team could be BCS Bowling as they avoid both Florida State and Clemson.

The Top Tier-Teams fighting for the title.

Florida State Seminoles, 10-2

Virginia Tech Hokies, 11-1

Clemson Tigers, 11-1

                Florida State lost 11 guys to the NFL Draft, yet Jimbo Fisher has recruited well enough to not have that much of a drop off.  The Seminoles return four of their five offensive lineman as well as their top two receivers.  The question will be at quarterback where the most highly touted signal caller to put on the Speared helmet steps up (which is quite a big deal considering the last two quarterbacks were first round picks, and two other Seminole quarterbacks won the Heisman).  Redshirt freshman Jameis Winston is a 6’4’’ freak of an athlete that was drafted by the Texas Rangers out of high school and has already become a valued outfielder/relief pitcher on the Seminole baseball team.  In his spring game debut, Winston went 12 for 15 for 205 yards and 2 touchdowns, without even showing what he can do with his legs. This kid could be the next Cam Newton.  The defense lost six players in the draft, but the five returners are all scheduled to be selected in the top 3-4 rounds next year.  Even the replacements, which have yet to start a game, are considered NFL prospects.  They are led by defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan who will continue the line of strong defensive linemen to come out of Florida State.  The schedule is easy in that only two games will the Seminoles be tested; but both of those games are on the road at Clemson and Florida.  With top recruiting classes coming in and the experience that Winston will get, next year might be the year for Florida State.

If there is one thing I know about the ACC, it is that Frank Beamer does not stay mediocre for long.  Last season’s 7-6 mark broke a streak of eight straight double digit-win seasons for Virginia Tech, and since 1992, the Hokies have not won less than 9 games in back to back seasons.  Beamer brings back the best physical specimen of a quarterback in Logan Thomas.  At 6’6’’, 257 pounds Thomas is a beast with enough athleticism to run when he needs to.  After a standout sophomore year (3,013 yards, 19 TD, 10 INT 60%) Thomas was rumored as a possible first round pick.  However, his junior year failed to live up to expectations both individually (2,976-18-16-51%) and with the team.  I expect a strong bounce back year for him.  Projected starting running back Michael Holmes is dismissed from the team, but the Hokies have never had trouble finding strong runners.  If a go-to receiver steps up (I’m guessing D.J. Coles) then this could be a dangerous offense.  The defense returns 9 starters including eight possible draft picks.  They are led by James Gayle at defensive end and Kyle Fuller in the defensive backfield.  The injury to Antone Exum hurts, but the defense will be this team’s strength…outside of the schedule.  The Hokies dodge both Florida State and Clemson.  The biggest challenges will be Marshall and number one Alabama to open the season.  An upset win there and this team might run the table. 

I am not going to lie, I might be biased by how much I just love watching Tajh Boyd and Clemson play.  If Texas Tech could not get Kingsbury, I would have been perfectly happy with Clemson Offensive Coordinator Chad Morris.  Coming off a bowl win over LSU, the Clemson Tigers are primed for the best season in their history.  They have a senior, four-year starting quarterback in Boyd.  They have the most dynamic playmaker east of the Rockies in Sammy Watkins.  They have possibly the best offensive coordinator in the country.  The defense leaves something to be desired outside of linebackers Quandron Christian and Spencer Shuey, but I believe this offense can carry the Tigers to an ACC Title.  Boyd did not make significant jumps from his sophomore to junior season by raw numbers, but he became a much more efficient quarterback.  He only threw for 68 more yards and 3 more touchdowns, but he did it on 72 less attempts while gaining 8% on his completions (59% to 67%).  He may lack prototypical height at 6’1’’ but the recent influx of shorter and mobile (he ran for 103 yards against NC State and over 500 yards on the year)/accurate quarterbacks has Boyd in the mix for the second quarterback taken next spring.  Losing DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Ellington will hurt, but Sammy Watkins is ready to be the go-to receiver and Roderick McDowell should fill in nicely at running back.  The Tigers get Florida State and Georgia at home, but do travel to South Carolina in the last game of the season.  My gut tells me that they will handle Florida State and split with the SEC teams.  However, if this defense can slow down the Bulldogs/Gamecocks offenses better than expected, this team does have a shot at 12-0.

College Football Preview: PAC-12

                The Pac-12 opens the season with five teams ranked in the Coaches Top-25, including two in the top four.  However, both of their top teams have some serious questions.

The Bottom of the Barrel-Teams that are hoping just to make a bowl with projected records

Colorado Buffalos, 3-9

California Bears, 4-8

Utah Utes, 4-8

Washington State Cougars, 5-7

                These were the only four teams in the Pac-12 to not play in a bowl last year and I see much of the same for this season, too.  Colorado should improve from 1-11, but their schedule is still difficult with a non-conference game against possible BCS Buster Fresno State.  California has an even tougher non-conference slate with two Big Ten home games against Northwestern and Ohio State.  Cal could pull it out against the Wildcats because of the travel involved, but Braxton Miller should have a field day against a sub-par Golden Bear defense.

                Utah has a short but difficult non-conference road trip to Provo to play BYU.  The Utes also miss out on playing Cal from the North Division and have to travel to Washington State, so 10^th feels about right for them.  Mike Leach’s Washington State team took a step back last season to 3-9, but Leach will be playing more and more of his own recruits that will fit his system better.  They open with a difficult road trip to Auburn, who might not be the class of the SEC but it is still a very long trip into a hostile environment.  I think Connor Halliday will take control of the quarterback position for the Cougars.  In the 5 games in which he threw more than 20 passes last season, Halliday had more than 330 yards four times and 4 or more touchdowns three times.  After a full off-season with Leach, Halliday is a dark-horse candidate to lead the nation in passing.

Better Be Bowling-Teams that expect to go to a bowl, but no quite contend for the conference championship

Arizona Wildcats, 7-5

#25 Oregon State Beavers, 8-4

#21 UCLA Bruins, 8-4

Arizona State Sun Devils, 9-3

Washington Huskies, 9-3

                The other embattled coach remaking himself in the Pac-12 had a much more successful debut in Arizona last season.  Rich Rodriguez definitely had more to work with in Arizona last season than Leach did at Washington State, and the Wildcats bought into the system for eight wins.  The only games the Wildcats lost were to ranked teams, and Arizona State in a rivalry game.  While they do return the nation’s leading rusher Kadeem Carey, gone is quarterback Matt Scott.  Connor Brewer would probably start in his place if he did not have to sit out a year after transferring from Texas.  The three candidates include returning backup B.J. Denker, freshman Anu Solomon and Jesse Scroggins, a transfer from USC.  I think Scroggins will start with a big arm, but the Wildcats have already lost leading receiver Austin Hill for the season.  I think Arizona takes a step back as teams stack the box against Carey, but should still get 7 wins thanks to an easy non-conference schedule.

                Oregon State and UCLA both start the season ranked, although I do not think either will end the season that way.  Oregon State has a very favorable early schedule and will probably start with six or seven wins in a row.  However, I do not think Cody Vaz or Sean Mannion can get it done against the top-5 in the Pac-12 (their last five games are against Stanford, USC, Arizona St., Washington and Oregon), especially with a running game that was ranked 101^st last season.  UCLA might have the best quarterback prospect outside of Teddy Bridgewater, but the schedule is not too favorable.  The Bruins have to travel to USC, Oregon and Stanford as well as a non-conference game at Nebraska.  That slate is just too daunting especially with Johnathan Franklin playing for the Packers now.  However, should they convince Brett Hundley to stay for another year, the Bruins could be a National Title contender in 2014 as the schedule flips to their favor.

                Arizona State has the toughest non-conference schedule of anyone in the Pac-12 with games against both Wisconsin and Notre Dame.  Sandwiched between those two games are a road trip to Stanford and a home game against USC.  The Sun Devils very well could come out of that stretch 1-4 but the schedule gets easier the rest of the way.  Taylor Kelly came out of nowhere to finish 9^th in the nation in pass efficiency and Marion Grice is a solid running back.  The defense is anchored by future top draft pick Will Sutton at defensive tackle and Carl Bradford as a pass-rushing outside linebacker.  Arizona State gets to avoid Oregon this season, but the rest of the schedule is too difficult to contend.

The Huskies are my surprise team in the Pac-12 and if they can get past Boise St. in their opener, they could be a threat to get to a BCS Bowl.  Keith Price is a dynamic quarterback who went head-to-head with RGIII two years ago in their bowl game as a true sophomore.  Steve Sarkisian has brought in Marques Tuiasosopo to mentor Price and I think he will break out as an early-season Heisman candidate.  Price has a good safety valve in tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, the second ranked NFL-prospect at his position.  There is also mid-round NFL talent at wide receiver and running back with Kasen Williams and Bishop Sankey.  Washington avoids USC from the South and is easily the most likely team to break into the top tier of the Pac-12.

The Contenders-Teams with a good chance of winning the conference

#4 Stanford Cardinal, 10-2

#24 USC Trojans, 10-2

#3 Oregon Ducks, 11-1

                I am not sold on Kevin Hogan as a top-tier quarterback and he will be without both his top two tight ends (Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo) and his top running back (Stepfan Taylor) all gone to the NFL.  The entire offensive line is back and will be good, but the skill position players are not at the high level that they have been recently for the Cardinal.  The schedule for Stanford is no cake walk either as they close their season: at home against Oregon, at USC, home against Cal, and home against Notre Dame.  By that point the Irish will have adjusted a new quarterback and will be a rough game.  The defense remains strong with Shayne Skov manning the middle and bookends Ben Gardner and Trent Murphy, all three top NFL prospects.  I just do not think the Cardinal can contend with the more athletic teams without a distinct advantage at quarterback.

                USC, on the other hand, has the schedule as good as they can really get.  The Trojans do not play Oregon or Washington, and get Stanford at home.  The scholarship sanctions are beginning to thin out, meaning that the Trojans’ depth is beginning to get deeper.  Lane Kiffin has continued to recruit at a top-10 level with three more than competent quarterbacks.  I think Wittek will start, but look out for freshman Max Browne to get some reps and possibly take over.  Whoever is throwing will have the best receiver in the nation in Marquise Lee and future NFL’er Silas Redd at running back.  Lee had 118 catches for 1,721 yards and 14 touchdowns last season and with Robert Woods gone, he should see even more targets.  The loss of T.J. McDonald on the back in will hurt, but the majority of the USC defense is back and should be better with Monte Kiffin’s failed NFL tactics gone.  Half of the returning defenders will probably have their name called next April led by linebacker Morgan Breslin.  I think USC can beat Stanford, but no Oregon and will probably slip up somewhere else along the way.

                Oregon had the biggest loss in the conference with Chip Kelly now coaching the Philadelphia Eagles, but the Ducks just reload.  Kenjon Barner is in the NFL, so Oregon replaces him with the fastest guy in the nation De’Anthony Thomas.  Dion Jordan was a top-5 pick, but he was arguably outplayed last season by the returning Taylor Hart.  Kyle Long’s versatility will be missed, but Oregon has always been deep on the offensive line and returns center Hroniss Grasu, the top center in the draft next season.  Most importantly, Oregon brings back Marcus Mariota and his sixth-ranked nationally 163.2 quarterback rating.  Mariota had a more efficient season than fellow redshirt-freshman Johnny Manziel, with 32 touchdowns to only six interceptions.  Mariota is definitely a top-5 Heisman candidate going into the season and could boost himself into a prime draft slot as well.  With all that said, I do not think that the Ducks can go undefeated.  The loss of Kelly and his in-game adjustments has been very under-rated and it will cost them in one their tough road games at Stanford, Washington or Arizona. 

College Football Preview: BCS Busters

          As we start the worst four-week period of the non-Olympics’ sports year (just baseball, basketball free agency over, training camps just starting for football, etc.) I thought I would preview the upcoming college football season.  I think I will separate it by the big five conferences, the rest of the smaller conferences, and an overall post season outlook.  Today I will start with the Non-BCS conferences best teams and whatever the hell the new Big East is called (AAC).

AAC (American Athletic Conference)

          With the departures of Pittsburgh and Syracuse to the ACC, West Virginia to the Big XII previously, and Boise State backing out, the AAC has been left pretty bare.  When you factor in that two of the top three teams will be moving on after this season as well, the remaining stragglers will be left with nothing but a low to mid-major conference.  That is not exactly what SMU, Houston, and Memphis signed up for but that is what they will be left with. 

          This is the last season that this conference will be associated as a major conference because once the College Football Playoff starts in 2014 the AAC will join the Sun Belt, Mountain West, Mid-American Conference and Conference USA as the “Group of 5” that will be guaranteed one spot in the major bowls outside of the playoff.  With that said, the major life of this conference could go out with a bang as there is actually a true contender to get to the BCS National Championship game for the first time since Miami defected.

Louisville Cardinals

Last Year: 11-2, Beat Florida in the Sugar Bowl

                The Cardinals were a surprise threat last season to bust up the BCS as they started 9-0 before getting tripped up at Syracuse and losing a triple-overtime thriller to UConn.  I could give you a list of the returning starters and lettermen, but you just need to know about one: Teddy Bridgewater.  I am not going to lie, I did not get a chance to see much of Bridgewater but I did see him carve up a good Florida defense better than any other quarterback last season (including Heisman winner Johnny Manziel, first round draft pick E.J. Manuel and future high draft pick Aaron Murray) with less talent around him.  Bridgewater is the real deal and I fully expect him to be the first player taken next spring not named Jadeveon.

                The Cardinals have a future pro at every level of their defense as well.  Preston Brown plays the quarterback of the defense as the middle linebacker racked up 109 tackles last season.  As of now, he would be a mid-round pick but should he help Louisville go undefeated his stock could soar.  Safety Hakeem Smith is another guy that will be playing on Sundays and is of similar draft stock as Brown.  Smith will need to show more ball-hawking skills (just one INT last season) to improve his own draft position as well as the team’s chances.  Defensive End Marcus Smith is the last prospect on their defense but is the most interesting.  Marcus came to Louisville as a quarterback and has transitioned to the defensive line and posted 9.5 sacks over the past season and a half as well as a team high 7 tackles for a loss.  The Cardinals will need Marcus to keep improving their weak pass rush to navigate an undefeated schedule.

                Speaking of the schedule, it could be the MVP of the Louisville season.  The Cardinals will not face a team that really has a chance of being ranked until their last game of the season.  There are a couple of tricky road games before: September 14^th, at Kentucky and November 8^th, at Connecticut.  Kentucky is easily the worst team in the SEC and the Cardinals will now they have to not just win, but win convincingly to help their resume for later in the season.  UConn was able to slip past Louisville last year in triple-OT so I think the Cardinals will come out more prepared this time.  The last game of the season is at Cincinnati, a 10-win team from a season ago.  The Bearcats have a new coach in the weasel-like Tommy Tuberville but do retain some talent.  This game very well could decide whether or not the Louisville gets into the BCS National Championship.

                The Cardinals are a popular pick to go undefeated.  As you will see over my next few posts, I do not see many undefeated teams this season, so should Louisville pull of the feat singularly, should they get a shot in the NC Game?  I believe that they should, but I also do not think they will.  The Cardinals will slip up on some random, rainy night to a team that no one expects.  I’m looking atOctober 10^th, at home against Rutgers.  Louisville will be coming off a short, 5-day week after a road game to Temple.  11-1 sounds just right for this team.

Other Teams to Watch:

                Honestly, these teams should not be considered in the same post as Louisville, because their level of talent and ceiling and a clear tier or two below Louisville.  However, there is just not much that needs to be said about them so I want to keep it short and sweet.

Northern Illinois Huskies

Last Year: 12-2, Lost to Florida State in the Orange Bowl

                The Huskies had a 12-game win streak sandwiched between losses to the two BCS Conference teams (I do not include Kansas because they just suck) that they played.  Northern Illinois returns its own high-level quarterback in Jordan Lynch.  Lynch took over for Chandler Harnish and is a bit smaller, but has a better arm.  Lynch will have the advantage of being a clearly better quarterback than any other signal caller he faces on the schedule.  The schedule for the Huskies is a bit trickier than Louisville’s, as there are two Big Ten road trips to Iowa and Purdue.  While neither team is exactly the class of the Big Ten, they will easily be the toughest games on Northern Illinois’ schedule. 

                I think that the Huskies will get through the non-conference road trips unscathed based on the continuity of their Offense (every lineman back to protect Lynch as well as 3 of his top 4 receivers).  The real test will be October 5^th at Kent State.  The Flashes were the talk of the non-BCS town as they were set up to bust a BCS bowl… until Northern Illinois outlasted them in double overtime in the MAC Championship game.  Kent State will want blood for that disappointment, so I think they can overcome the Huskies, once, but not twice as the two will most likely meet in the MAC Championship game again. 

Boise State Broncos

Last Year: 11-2, Beat Washington in the Las Vegas Bowl

                The Broncos are now at the point where they do not rebuild like most non major schools, but just reload.  Chris Peterson has developed a program that has seven straight 10-win seasons, as well as 12 of the last 14 years.  The Broncos have lost one game or fewer 8 of the last 11 seasons, so they are literally a bounce or two away from going undefeated most years.  This season is no different.

                Boise State should be favored in every game except at BYU on October 25^th.  That game could almost be a pick ‘em, but I would not be surprised to see BYU favored at 7-0 or 6-1 going into it and ranked relatively high.  However, I think the Broncos will pull that one out.  I am more worried about the first game of the season at Washington.  You will see my thoughts on the Huskies in the Pac-12 preview, but beating a team two games in a row is really hard to do.  I think that 12-1 will be the mark for Boise, just short of a BCS game.

Fresno State Bulldogs

Last Year: 9-4, Lost to SMU in the Hawai’i Bowl

                Fresno State has the same advantage as Northern Illinois: their quarterback will be the best on the field in almost every game with the exception being San Jose State’s David Fales.  The Spartans do not have the talent level of Fresno, so that game should not be too much of an issue.  Derek Carr, younger brother of the number one overall pick David, has developed into quite a prospect himself.  Should he continue to progress, Fresno has a good shot at double digit wins. 

                    The Bulldogs also play in the Mountain West so they will have a very similar schedule to Boise but their non-conference games are not nearly as hard.  That is the real reason that Fresno State is listed here: they just have to beat the Broncos, at home.  If Fresno can pull it out, I think they will ride the momentum to an undefeated regular season and a BCS Buster status.

Marshall Thundering Herd

Last Year: 5-7, No Bowl

                Now I know this does not look like a BCS-Buster since they were sub-.500 last year, but hear me out.  Phil Steele beat me to it, but the Herd should be the most improved team in the nation this season.  They return the national passing yardage leader in Rakeem Cato as well as seven other starters on offense.  Their porous defense returns all the young guys who were forced into playing time last year, as well as some transfers from BCS-conference schools.  More importantly, they were 1-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year, so this team was close and regression is due.

                When we really look at the schedule, we can see that the conference is up for the taking.  Gone are the top contenders in UCF, SMU, Houston and Memphis.  Tulsa and East Carolina have some rebuilding to do.  I think Marshall will end up running the slate in the conference.  The key game will be at Virginia Tech on September 21^st.  If the Thundering Herd can hang with the Hokies, this should give them the confidence needed to run the table during the rest of their games for an 11-1 finish.  If Cato can get hot in the game and out duel a turnover-prone Logan Thomas, then we might be looking at the BCS buster of the year.  You know what, screw it.  I am taking the Thundering Herd at 13-0 to sneak into a BCS bowl.

NBA Finals Preview

Last year, I had quite a good perception on the way The Finals would go.  I figured that one of the none-Big 3 Heat would swing a crucial game with a string of threes, and Mike Miller did just that.  I also figured that LeBron James would do all sorts of LeBron James things and Kevin Durant could not match up.  It took some luck, as the two teams were such unknown quantities.  This year is a much different story with two teams that have been here before and know who they are. 

Before I get to picking someone to win, I like many other Mavericks’ fans am in a big of a quandary.  These are Dallas’ biggest two rivals of the Dirk era.  I mean, if not for these two teams I firmly believe Dirk has three, maybe four rings on his hand right now (side note: the 2002-2003 Mavericks get forgotten and might have been their best team with Dirk and Nash/Finley/Van Exel all in their prime, and were about to go up 2-1 with home court on the Spurs in the conference finals when Dirk hurt his knee).  So who should we want to win?  Some people choose the route that the “Spurs are a Texas/Western Conference team so we should root for them.”  As I have previously stated I refuse to root for my biggest rival based on affiliation.  So what to do? 

I broke it down in two ways.  First, I hate the Spurs more than the Heat.  When compared, I do dislike Wade more than Duncan, but I DEFINITELY hate Ginobili and Parker more than LeBron and Bosh.  I do not want to just be a hater, so I kept looking.  Secondly, Spurs’ fans have every type of bragging rights over Dallas fans except for two (should the Heat win): the Mavs’ have won a title more recently, and Dirk was able to overcome the great Miami LeBrons and the Spurs haven’t.  So for those reasons, I will not say I am rooting for the Heat, but I hate them a little less than San Antonio.  Hopefully, a steroid scandal breaks and both teams are disqualified from the league.

As for the actual basketball, this is the matchup that the Spurs wanted, without a doubt.  Zach Lowe from Grantland wrote that he thought San Antonio was actually rooting for Miami to beat Indiana.  I thought that was indiocracy until I delved deeper into the numbers.  The Spurs have a prevalent mistaken identity that they are a big, physical team that rebounds well and plays good half court defense.  In reality, San Antonio plays quite similarly to Miami. 

The Heat and Spurs were 6^th and 7^th in the league in 3-pointers attempted while being 1^st and 2^nd in percentage, respectively.  Both coaching staffs are part of the advanced metrics portion of the NBA that values the corner-3 above every other shot outside of the paint.  Because of the high amount of threes taken, both teams are in the bottom third in rebounding.  While Miami is last in total rebounding, their differential is actually 18, one spot behind the Spurs, and that shows a more accurate picture of their rebounding.

The biggest perceived difference would be Tim Duncan to LeBron James as the center of the offense.  However, the two play a point role in the post in almost the same exact way.  By looking at their shot charts on Fan Graphs, you can see that Duncan and James operate extensively from the same spot between the block and the wing.  Duncan has his little 18-foot bank shot and LeBron goes to either his fadeway or takes it to the rack.  Neither team really plays “big” like the Pacers or Grizzlies, and the Spurs actually gave up almost two points more a game than the Heat. 

So with no clear favorite from the overall numbers, let’s look at the individual matchups.  There is another misconception that the Spurs have the advantage here because Bosh cannot guard Tim Duncan.  Well who on the planet can guard LeBron?  In Game 7 of the Pacers series, the Heat started doubling down on Hibbert and caused havoc with their superb rotations.  Now Duncan is a much better passer than Hibbert and the Spurs are better 3-point shooters, but I suspect that Spoelstra will employ this tactic extensively.  The real decision will be who LeBron will guard.  He can be put on Leonard to save his energy for the offensive end and allow for more help opportunities or he can check Parker to try and neutralize the quick Frenchmen.  I would have to say that putting James on Parker, Wade on Ginobili, and Chalmers/Battier/Miller on Green/Neal/Leonard will be Miami’s best option.

The Spurs on the other hand will have to stick almost exclusively to Kawhi guarding LeBron.  Neal and Green are not big enough or near physical enough to handle the 6’9’’ 275 pound frame of James.  He would destroy both on the block and might even do the same to Leonard without help from Duncan/Splitter.  Tiago Splitter is not nearly the inside shot-blocking presence that Roy Hibbert is, so I imagine the Heat will be much more assertive in driving the ball to the hoop.

The Bench is where there is the most distinct advantage.  With Ray Allen, Shane Battier, Rashard Lewis and Mike Miller, the Heat have possibly the best sharp shooting bench in the history of the game.  Throw in the added enthusiasms and bursts of energy that are Norris Cole and Chris Anderson, and the bench unit for Miami has a clear advantage over the slow Spurs’ second unit.  Not to mention that Cole can be used to pester Parker and Anderson to get under Duncan’s skin to help out with Bosh/LeBron’s defensive assignments.

In reality, both teams would rather play each other than the vanquished foes in the conference finals.  They both play the same up-tempo, jack it up style of offense.  The Spurs rely on a constant symphony of ball movement while Miami relies on the athleticism and playmaking ability of its superstars.  I really think that Ray Allen could (should) be the X-factor in the series.  He can get significant run by being hidden on defense guarding 3-point shooters something that will be drastically different to the athletic wings of Indiana.  He had been cold until the end of the Indiana series, so I think he will stay hot and turn a game or two.  However, Duncan is 4-0 in The Finals for a reason and Parker is playing as well as almost anyone right now.  San Antonio also has a clear coaching advantage which can be exploited just as Carlisle did in ’11.  The Spurs even have the non-home court advantage of having to only steal one of the first two games then being able to close out at home in the 2-3-2 format. 

With all that said, I really could have made this entire preview/prediction in one single sentence: Miami has LeBron and San Antonio does not.  Heat in 6

The Mavs' Next Move

                A little over a year ago, on this very blog, I wrote about the imminent emergence of Roy Hibbert and how I would much rather have him for the next few years rather than Tyson Chandler.  People laughed at that, but they are eating too much crow to be named right now.  Hibbert put up 16 points, over 10 rebounds and 3 blocks a game compared to Chandler’s 6/6/1.5 over their series, including a series closer of Hibbert throwing up a 21/12/5 while holding Tyson to 2(TWO!!)/6/0.  Yes Hibbert was restricted, so the Pacers could have matched anything the Mavs’ could have offered, but you never know if Hibbert could have put pressure to come play with Dirk.

            A couple of months later, I wrote about my excitement about the Mavs’ pieced together roster.  This is where I look completely wrong as I predicted a 3-5 seed and Dallas missed the playoffs for the first time this century.  However, I still stand by that the 2012/2013 Mavericks’ team was much better than anyone realized.  I think if Dirk is not himself for half the season in any of these past 10 seasons then Dallas has a tough time making the playoffs.  But from the point the Mavericks hit 13-23, they then finished the season 28-18, or know the equivalent of a 50-win team putting them right in the middle of the Western Conference Playoffs.  I did overestimate the effectiveness of Collison as a starting point guard, but should Dirk have been completely healthy from the start, that team would be remembered far differently.

Now let’s get to what the Mavericks’ next move is.  I am not even going to talk about the possibility of getting Chris Paul AND Dwight Howard, as that is a pipe dream that would take a huge discount by both and some serious sign and trades.  Even if it could be done, it would be the obvious choice.  Nonetheless, let’s take a look at what the Mavs could do.

(All of these options include re-signing O.J. Mayo to a longer contract for about the same salary, because I see keeping Mayo is a MUST for this Dallas team)

OPTION 1: Sign Chris Paul

            With the recent development that Paul is quite unhappy with being the de facto executioner for Vinny Del Negro’s employment; the realization that the Mavericks could get him is starting to sink in.  The only teams with enough space to sign him to the max and are an even somewhat intriguing option are: Dallas, the Clippers, Houston, Utah and Atlanta.  Houston has a few quality guards already and will be looking to get Howard, so they are effectively out (unless they can pull the Jedi Mind trick sign-and-trades to get both, in which case we would have a new favorite for the 2014 title).  The Jazz are in a state of flux with only five guys signed for next season, and both leading scorers likely to leave so I doubt Paul even considers them.  That leaves returning to the Clippers, or jumping to the Mavericks or Hawks.  The Hawks are only in play if they can lure Dwight, and even then the core of Howard/Horford/Paul is a great starting point, but there would be no money left over for wing players.  As we just saw with the Heat and Pacers, wing play/defense is a must-have to win.  Anyway, everything I have season points that Dwight does not want to play in Atlanta, so that takes them out of the running. 

            So in my mind, I see only two options for Paul: Dallas or the Clippers.  Los Angeles obviously has a younger, more hyped core, but are they really that much better than Dallas?  Blake Griffin has not progressed much since entering the league, especially on the offensive end.  DeAndre Jordan has actually taken steps back in his progression.  Caron Butler is a shell of the player he used to be.  I watched this team go toe-to-toe with the Mavericks, and it was completely the Chris Paul show: he had to do everything on his own (much like Dirk was doing for the Mavs).  That game is what leads me to believe that Paul wants to come play with Dirk.  Their pick-and-pop game would be unstoppable, and Paul would not have to worry about the other team just fouling his power-forward down the stretch to get the ball back.

Option 1A: Sign Paul, draft a center

            Okay, so Dallas theoretically has Chris Paul in the bag, but a center is still needed.  They have the 13^th pick in possibly the weakest draft in 20 years, but there will be a couple of defensive centers on the board still.  Dirk works best with a shot-blocking presence next to him, and Gorgui Deng from Louisville and Jeff Withey out of Kansas can both provide that.  There is also Steven Adams out of Pittsburgh, who is raw but has tons of upside. All three of these guys are unrefined on the offensive end, but have the potential to flourish especially if Chris Paul was guiding them and Dirk was taking double teams away from them.  Personally, I would take Steven Adams: a legit 7-footer with enough bulk to handle the Roy Hibbert/Dwight Howards and an intriguing mid-range jumper. 

Option 1B: Sign Paul, sign a free agent center

            This is where it gets tricky, salary wise.  It would take a little maneuvering, including trading the 13^th pick to create enough salary space for a max Paul contract as well as another mid-range deal.  While I would love for Dallas to sign both Paul and Pekovic/Okafor, the price tag to get them would probably be too much.  The more likely options fall to Zaza Pachulia, Samuel Dalembert or Andray Blatche.  None of them seem that enticing to me.

Option 2: Sign Dwight Howard

            Every day that goes by this seems less and less like a realistic possibility as well as continuing to strengthen the Rockets’ case to sign him.  However, should Cuban/Donnie pull the rabbit out of the hat and land Howard, they would be a starting point guard away from contending.  Howard may see that too, and with the point guards that could be there in the draft or even in free agency, the situation might entice him up I-45 to Dallas.

Option 2A: Sign Howard, draft a point guard

            Marcus Smart and the other tops guards that stayed in school really screwed the Mavericks over.  Should Smart have come out, that would have pushed the other point guards back into a situation where Try Burke would have most likely slipped to Dallas.  Nonetheless, it is looking like Michael Carter-Williams from Syracuse will be available at 13.  Carter-Williams is a tall/long point guard that carried an otherwise subpar Orange team to the Final Four.  His shot could use some work, but in the context of this scenario with Dirk/Dwight/Marion/Mayo, Carter-Williams’ outside shot would not need to be relied upon.  The other point guard option that has been floated is the German Dennis Schroeder.  He has been compared to Tony Parker for more reasons than being European, so if Donnie sees the same in him then he could be the choice.  I have not seen enough of Schroeder to make an educated opinion, so I would have to lean towards Carter-Williams.

Option 2B: Sign Howard, sigh a free agent point guard

            There are really own two intriguing names out there at point guard outside of Chris Paul: Aaron Brooks and Brandon Jennings.  Now Brooks might take the less money that would be necessary to fit both he and Dwight, but he is restricted and the salary could, and probably would be matched at the lower level.  Jennings on the other hand, is a complicated situation.  He thinks quite highly of himself and has said he believes he deserves max money.  However I do not think any of the teams with enough space would give him a max deal.  Once he realizes that, he could also realize that to get his money, he will need to take less at first, and jump into a good situation… oh you know like playing with Dwight Howard and Dirk Nowitzki.  If the Mavs could work out the salaries to sign both Howard/Jennings then it should definitely be done above almost all other options.

Option 3: Sign Andrew Bynum

            After missing the entire season due to different and weird ailments, Bynum will most likely not get a max deal anywhere.  Should the Mavericks strike out on both Howard and Paul, the landing spots for Bynum to get anywhere near the max will dwindle and leave Dallas as the most likely suitor.  Now I know he has his quirks and injury history, but he proved in the 2010 Finals that he can be a top-3 center and top-20 player when healthy.  The problem would be that he would need a strong point guard influence to keep his head straight, and a rookie would not be the answer.  If Bynum is the choice, the Mavs could work a sign and trade with their 1^st round pick to bring in a Jose Calderon or Jarrett Jack, guys who are strong floor leaders. 

Option 4: Sign near-max level free agents, draft best player available

            This is by far the least “sexy” of any of the options, but the most likely for sure.  I think it starts and ends with Nikola Pekovic.  He is probably the most under-rated player by the masses in the entire league.  He averaged over 16 points, 9 rebounds and a block a game while playing just over 30 minutes a night.  Should he get a full share of minutes, his numbers equate to almost 20 points, 11 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks a game.  He is only 27, has the size (6’11’’, 290) and protects the rim.  Now he is a restricted free agent and the Timberwolves can match, but if the offer is in the 8-figure range they most likely will not.  They know they are about to have to pay Rubio and Love and they are not a team that will go far and away above the tax threshold.  So if the Mavs left the other teams with space max out with big men Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Emeka Okafor and Andrew Bynum, Dallas could snipe Pekovic for a better deal.  This would also allow Dallas to sign an $8-10 million point guard, such as Brandon Jennings.  With Jennings-Mayo-Marion/Crowder-Dirk-Pekovic, the Mavericks could then draft the best player available and not have to worry about getting a starter or even a sixth man.  So they could get Michael Carter-Williams for the bigger point guards, Steven Adams as a project big man, C.J. McCollum or Tim Hardaway Jr. as a microwave bench scorer, or even take a shot on Tony Mitchell.

Option Blasphemy: Trade Dirk

            I would never want this.  Ever.  BUT… I mean you can maneuver the salary dumping, and add first round picks from Indiana to Dallas, but if the Mavs could get Granger, a 25 ppg scorer just a season ago, and the Pacers can get a stretch four that they desperately need, who would say no? Dallas could extend Granger for less than the max coming off of an injury, so they would be able to explore all sorts of different options previously mentioned with signing a big name.  They could go get Pekovic, move Marion to the 4 and draft a point guard, all the while keeping some space for 2014.  Hell, they might even be able to lure Paul or Howard easier with Granger than Dirk, and then follow through with the previous options.  As much as I do not think nor want it to ever happen, trading Dirk might be the best option for Dallas.

My Choice:

When I started writing this, I thought for sure a Chris Paul option would be my choice as the best route, but I have come around on the fourth one and here is the reason why: the Mavericks have ZERO dollars guaranteed for the 2014-2015 season.  Zero.  So let’s say that Dirk/Marion/Mayo work out longer deals, but for less money, holding about a $20 million cap hold for that year (reasonable value, since Dirk said he will take significantly less, Marion can’t get much more, and Mayo tailed off at the end of the year).  Then you sign a couple of $10 million a year free agents, with cap holds you get to about $42 million on for that Summer or the equivalent to have a starting five in place with enough cap room to sign a max free agent in the biggest free agent class ever including Luol Deng, Andrew Bogut, Danny Granger, Pau Gasol, Kobe Bryant (don’t think he won’t consider leaving if Howard is gone), Zach Randolph, Marcin Gortat, DeMarcus Cousins, and player opt outs for Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and LeBron James.  If the Mavs could offer LeBron (who IS leaving Miami after next year, unless they trade Bosh for some young pieces) the lineup mentioned with Pekovic, Jennings or a promising young point guard and a gracefully aging Dirk shooting jumpers, they might have a slim chance at landing him.  And let’s not kid ourselves; whoever has LeBron has the best chance to win it all.