The Mavs Off-Season So Far

            I, like almost every single other Mavs’ Fan, was completely lost, disgruntled and upset by the first week of the NBA free agency period.  However, Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson have absolutely dominated the last ten days.  The ultimate scenario for the past year had been to acquire both Deron Williams and Dwight Howard via free agency with all of the cap space built by Dallas.  Howard nixed that plan by re-upping for another year with the Magic, so the plan then had a singular focus: Deron.  As much as some like to just spout out, “free agents just don’t come to Dallas” as the reasoning behind Deron spurning the Mavericks, I firmly believe that had the Nets not acquired Joe Johnson he would be playing in the AAC next season.  It was not that the Mavs’ front office did a bad job… more of that the Nets’ did a better job.

            So then we all sat, wondering what the hell the Mavericks were going to do.  Would they tank the season, in hopes of getting a high lottery pick?  Would they sign some spares for 1-year deals and hope to lure Dwight, Andrew Bynum or Chris Paul next summer? Would they do the blasphemous deed of trading the German Savior?  So then that’s when I saw very plainly the best option and tweeted the following:

“July 11^th: @Tomlin3: Ok, missed on Deron.. But why haven’t the Mavs at least signed OJ Mayo, Raymond Felton and Kaman, the last two to big 1-year deals???”

It seemed so simple: grab the best Center, Shooting Guard and Point Guard still available and then combined with Dirk, Marion, Wright, West, the rookies you have a very respectable 3 or 4 seed that Dirk could work with.  Then when it seemed as if Elton Brand was an option, I completely was on board with adding him as a 6^th man/backup big.

            Then the news broke that Kaman would be coming to the Mavericks.  Out of what I wanted the team to do, this seemed the most likely with the German national team connection between Kaman and Dirk.  The next move was the one that shows how much more Donnie Nelson and Mark Cuban know about what they are doing than all of us.  Whenever Indiana was serious about trading Dallas their starting point guard and best wing-defender/spot up 3-point shooter, I had to agree with the AP that it had to of been hard to not laugh, thinking it was a joke.  Especially just for a guy that was a FREE AGENT.  The Pacers could have just signed Mahimi away, but somehow Cubes/Donnie got back a starting point guard and 7^th man for a free agent who would have been the 8^th or 9^th guy off of the bench (I’ll get more to analyzing Collison and Jones in a bit).  Then the Mavs won the Brand amnesty auction at a very reasonable $2.1 million.  Finally this morning, I woke up and checked my Twitter driving into work and what do I see?  The final piece: Mayo agreeing to a deal with Dallas.

            Very rarely do we see our favorite sports’ teams do exactly (in this case even better than I thought) what we want/think they should do.  In this case it actually happened.  Now I want to back up the Dallas front office because of all the recent t-shirt fans who like to blame everything on the two guys most responsible for bringing Dallas a title (not named Dirk of course).  So let’s compare the team that the Mavericks’ would most likely have today if they decided to resign the guys from the title team, as to the team as it stands now.

            If the Mavericks would have resigned Tyson Chandler last summer to the 4 year/$60+ million he was looking for, then they would have had to just resign everyone since there would be no cap flexibility in the near future.  So then you’re talking about re-signing DeShawn Stevenson, J.J. Barea, and Caron Butler to about what they all got from other teams, 2/$5, 4/$18, and 3/$24m respectively.  Whether or not that team could have competed with OKC or the Spurs this year is another argument that I will gladly win against anyone willing, but Dallas would most likely be in the same predicament now regarding re-signing Kidd for 3/$9.1m, Terry 3/$15m and Ian Mahimi 4/16m.  So when combined with Dirk’s remaining 2/$43m and Marion’s 2/$18m, is a total of about $77 million.  Now if Dallas did go this route, would they have used their amnesty on Haywood? I think it might be 50/50 considering the lack of other options, so if they did not there would be another $6.3m from him and $2.5 from Roddy/DoJo for a team salary of $86 million, just over $4 million more than the champion Heat.  Think about that for a second: Dirk, Jet, Tyson, Kidd, Marion, Butler, Stevenson, Barea, Mahimi, Haywood, Roddy B, DoJo for $86 million.

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Yes I know that team won a title, but that was a perfect storm of good matchups, timely shooting, timely bad opponent’s shooting, and two teams (OKC and Miami) just not quite ready to take over yet.  There’s no way in hell that 12-man roster could beat the Heat or Thunder in a 7-game series this year or next.

            So let’s now compare that heart of the two rosters starting with the biggest “disparity” (or only as everyone sees it):

Starting Center: 2010/11 Tyson Chandler vs. 2012/13 Chris Kaman

            Let’s start off with a blind test, because the majority of the difference in opinion betweens these two players comes from how they look when they play (athletic black guy dunking on people, blocking shots into the stands vs. the goofy white dude with a beard who makes baby hooks and catches his own blocks).  Last year, one of these two average 14 points, 10 rebounds and 2 blocks per 36 minutes and the other averaged 11 points, 11.4 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per 36 minutes.  Guess which player had which averages…. In case you are bad with context clues, Kaman actually average more points AND blocks per 36 minutes.  He played less than Chandler because of injuries and New Orleans tanking for the Unibrow, but their overall averages (11.3/9.9/1.4 for Tyson vs. 13.1/7.7/1.6 for Kaman) are not that different either.  (All of these stats are viewable at basketball-reference.com should you not believe me)

            Let’s look at their overall careers too:

           

	PPG	RPG	BPG	FT %
Chris Kaman	11.9	8.3	1.4	74%
Tyson Chandler	8.6	8.9	1.4	63%

Let’s also look at their best season at each:

	PPG	RPG	BPG	FT %
Chris Kaman	18.5	12.7	2.8	79%
Tyson Chandler	11.8	12.4	1.8	73%

Statistically, Kaman is a better player.  Even when you look at their best seasons, Kaman actually put most of his together, as he averaged 15.7 ppg, 12.7 rpg, and 2.8 bpg in the same season, while Tyson chandler has only averaged a double/double once in his career, in 2007/08. 

            Now I’m not saying Kaman is a better player.  The eye test does at least tell you that statistics do not mean everything, and advanced metrics also give Chandler the edge.  However, it is really not by much:

	Dreb%	Treb%	PER
Chris Kaman	23.8	16.3	14.5
Tyson Chandler	24.1	18.3	15.8

 Their rebounding percentages are similar and their PER (Player Efficiency Rating) are close as well.  The average PER for the NBA is 15, with LeBron having the high of 27.2.  The PER favors wing players so the average for centers is probably more around 11 or 12.  So if all of these statistics point to the players being of similar value, then why the common perception that Tyson is far and away the better option?

            One factor is injuries: Kaman has been hurt for a portion of the past few seasons.  However, Tyson Chandler was the injury concern until his season with Dallas and he even missed some time in each of the past 4 seasons.  The next argument is the generic, “But Tyson was the Defensive Player of the Year” ignorance.  To that, I have to say that he only won it because Dwight Howard got hurt, and the media does not want to give LeBron every award (I DARE someone to argue that LeBron is not the best defensive player after the clinic he put on the last 7 games of the playoffs).  The award is about the perception of Tyson, when really how far did he get his Knicks team in the playoffs? You know, the team that has not one, but TWO superstars? Oh, the same level as Dallas last year?  Once again, I’m not saying Kaman is a better option than Tyson Chandler.  I do however, firmly believe that the difference between the two is about 2 wins a season, if not less, if you want to use baseball terms.  If you put Kaman in Chandler’s spot in 2011, I’m not so sure that they Mavs don’t win it all still.  The kicker is Kaman is only six months older than Chandler, with 180 less games on his NBA odometer (due to Tyson coming out of high school, not injuries.)  The center is just not as big of a factor anymore either.  Of the final four teams in the playoffs last season, the starting centers were: Serge Ibaka, Kevin Garnett, Boris Diaw, and Chris Bosh.  All are power forwards playing center.  This small difference will not make or break the Mavericks.

Second Scoring Option/Shooting Guard: 2010/11 Jason Terry vs. 2012/2013 O.J. Mayo

            I promise the rest of the comparisons will not be as long, but I just had to make a point about the annoying perception that Tyson Chandler was the savior, when in fact, he was the 4^th best player on the championship team.  The 3^rd best player on that team was Jason Terry, whom the Mavs let walk away to the Celtics.  My feelings about Jason Terry have already been shown here.  I’m sure we will be seeing a Grantland piece by Bill Simmons’ issuing the same frustrations within the first 15 games of next season.  What the Mavericks just did by signing Mayo was upgrade their second scoring option significantly. 

Mayo has been stuck in a bad situation the past two seasons in Memphis.  He is a creator with the ball who can get his own shot whenever he wants.  The Grizzlies have become a low-post dominant team with Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, and used Mayo off the bench to add defensive depth to the starting lineup to counter the defensive liabilities at their other two perimeter spots.  With Shawn Marion sharing the wing in Dallas, I expect Mayo to start and thrive with the Mavericks.  In Mayo’s first two seasons in the league, he started every game he played in and averaged 18 points, 3 assists, and 3.3 rebounds a game while shooting 45% from the field and 38.5 percent from 3’s.  For comparison, Jet has averaged 15.4 points, 3.8 assists and 2.2 rebounds a game while shooting 44% from the field and 37% from 3’s the past two seasons.  Even the last two seasons with Mayo playing less, he still put up 16.3 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3 assists per 36 minutes.  His shooting percentages dropped, but that can be attributed to the fact that there were no other perimeter shooters on the floor with him the majority of the time.

Not only are Mayo’s numbers slightly better than Terry’s, he is ten years younger, more effective off the dribble, and not a complete defensive burden.  Mayo can finish at the rack and is a solid 4 inches taller than Terry giving a more physical prowess to an increasingly bigger position in the league.  Mayo also is a durable player, only missing 11 games in his first 4 season, 10 due to a suspension over a supplement in an energy drink and 1 due to bronchitis.  This Mayo signing will probably end up being the most beneficial long-term, because he has the potential to be a superstar in this league.  With Rick Carlisle coaching him, Mayo finally has a firm but informative teacher to mold his game.  We also do not have to ever watch Jet take a terrible momentum-killing three-pointer again. 

Point Guard: 2010/11 Jason Kidd vs. 2012/13 Darren Collison

            This has to be an even more obvious upgrade than the last comparison to the people with knowledge of players outside of the Mavericks.  Jason Kidd is one of the best point guards of all-time and he left it all out there during the 2011 playoffs.  However, I think that was all he had left to give.  The league is trending toward a quicker, more scoring point guard: Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Deron Williams, Chris Paul and so on.  Rajon Rondo is really the only non-scoring point guard left in the elite.  Darren Collison fits that bill perfected, although he has slipped under the radar.  I even forgot to add him into the group of point guards who are just on the outside of the elite, or just on that next tier down.  He is a career 12.1 points and 5.2 assists guy who can get to the basket at will due to his quickness.  His shooting percentages are even more impressive as he shoots 45% from the field and 36.3 from 3’s.  Compare these numbers to Jason Kidd’s over the last couple of seasons at 7 points, 7 assists, 40% from the field and 34.5% from 3’s.  It may seem like a downgrade as far as assists go, but Collison has never had a Dirk Nowitzki to get easy perimeter assists off of jump shots.

            More important than the numbers, the Mavericks have injected youth into the team by replacing the 34-year old Terry and 39-year old Kidd with two 24-year old players.  After the Mavericks sign their rookies, their average age will be 28, closer to the youngest teams in the league rather than the oldest.  Collison also will provide some help against the quicker point guards in the league, where it used to be Shawn Marion having to switch over guarding out of position.

Wing Defender/Spot-Up 3-Point Shooter: 2010/11 DeShawn Stevenson vs. 2012/13 Dahntay Jones

            DeShawn Stevenson brought some toughness to the perimeter for the title team, a role Dahntay Jones can gill in nicely.  Jones, an inch taller than Stevenson, is the same age and more athletic/strong.  He can guard any perimeter position and will be a good backup to split time with Shawn Marion.  Jones is a career 35.5% 3-point shooter opposed to DeShawn Stevenson at 33.7%.  Jones is only getting better too, as he shot 43% from behind the arc last season.  The players are very similar, but Jones is a slightly better shooter which will benefit Dallas better now with penetrators Collison and Mayo.

Backup Big: 2010/11 Brendan Haywood vs. 2012/13 Elton Brand

            After looking at the statistics, I am even more excited about this upgrade.  Brand is not the All-Star he used to be, but by no means is washed up.  I feel like he has been in the league for forever, yet he is only 33 years old (a year older than Haywood).  Last year Brand averaged 11 points and 7.2 rebounds, much lower than his career averages of 18.3 and 9.4.  However, he was well rested on a deep Philadelphia team with a coach who also wanted to not wear out his aging big man.  His per-36 averages last season were a solid 13.7 points and 8.9 rebounds.  Haywood during the championship season had per-36 averages of 8.7 points and 10.2 rebounds. 

            Brand’s back-to-the-basket game might not complement Dirk in the best way, but I’m sure Dirk can find a way to make it work.  Kaman and Brand worked well together in Los Angeles, even bringing the Clippers to the playoffs for the first time in years.  Another upgrade that I’m looking forward to is not seeing Haywood’s 47% from the line, as Brand is a career 74% free-throw shooter.

Bench: 2010/11 J.J. Barea, Roddy B., Dominique Jones vs. 2012/13 Vince Carter, Brandon Wright, Roddy B., Dominique Jones, Jae Crowder, Jared Cunningham

            While Barea did have a big hand in a few key games in the playoff run of 2011, I was never a fan of his contributions and have longed believe Roddy B could provide the same type of effort.  Moreover, Roddy and DoJo each have two more years under their belts and from the first couple of summer league games Jones seems to be finding his scoring touch again.  Vince Carter can still break out old-school VC moments when the team is in need of them.  Brandon Wright provides another athletic big to provide a change of pace to the bigger/slower Dirk/Brand/Kaman.  Crowder and Cunningham probably won’t have an impact now, but should any of the perimeter core get hurt, I trust those two just as much as I would have in 2011 with Roddy and Jones. 

So there it is, a full player-by-player comparison of the title team of 2011 to the current Mavericks’ roster.  I know I didn’t compare Dirk/Marion, but neither seemed to lose much over last year and I fully expect a strong bounce back year from Dirk.  To recap, I’m giving an edge to the title team at center, but I’ll take the current team at shooting guard (starter and backup), point guard, backup big man and the bench is basically a wash.  This current team definitely has a scoring advantage with Kaman/Collison/Mayo being a better scoring trio than Chandler/Kidd/Terry, which will take the defensive pressure off of Dirk.

Once again, I’m not saying that this team is now the odds-on favorite to win the title next year.  However, I’m not counting them out now.  I’ll still put the Heat, Thunder, and Spurs as the top 3 teams in the league…. But I cannot safely say that any other team is really that much better than the Mavericks right now.  I’ll have to see how well Nash fits in with the Lakers; as well as how the Grizzlies can handle not having Mayo’s scoring punch.  I don’t know if Blake Griffin’s knee will hold out for the Clippers or if they can continue to progress.  The Knicks are in complete disarray and the Celtics have just gotten older.  The 76ers/Pacers each lost key pieces to this Mavericks’ team.  So which of those teams is really a clearly better team?  If I had to put a seed on Dallas today, I would give them a 3-5 range, with 3 being more of a possibility than 5.  Before you get up in arms, let’s remember the title team was a 3 seed.

What I can do and safely say is that right now, going into the 2012/2013 NBA season, I am more confident about this Dallas Mavericks team’s championship chances than I was about the 2010/2011 team.  This is a younger, more athletic team, who will be just as hungry with only a few players who have won it all before.  Most importantly, Donnie Nelson and Mark Cuban were able to orchestrate all of this without sacrificing their ultimate goal of cap space next summer.  As of now, the team will be just at the cap level of $58 million, depending on the Mayo contract, with about $15 million in space for next summer. 

Dallas has also made it more attractive to the likes of Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum: instead of just Dirk, those two big guys could be thinking a Dirk-Collison-Mayo trio is something they would like to join.  We will have to see how well they mesh together this season, I just know now though that Cuban/Nelson had a backup plan, and it has worked out about as well as can be after missing on Deron.  No one can say that the front office did not try or was not prepared.  I mean, a year from now we could be looking at a starting lineup of Collison-Mayo-a suddenly emergent Jae Crowder-Dirk-Dwight Howard…. I’ll stop before getting ahead of myself.

NBA Finals Preview

With the NBA Finals starting tonight, I thought I’d break down the matchup and throw out a prediction.  Let’s start with Oklahoma City.

Oklahoma City Thunder, 2^nd Seed in the West; 47-19 regular season record

How they got here:

1^st Round: 4-0 over Dallas; 2^nd Round: 4-1 over LA Lakers; 3^rd Round: 4-2 over San Antonio

If there has ever been a metaphorical changing of the guard in a conference, the Thunder’s path to the Finals epitomizes it.  Only three teams have won the Western Conference in the Post-Jordan Bulls era, and OKC dispatched of all three of them during this post-season.  I will admit that I thought this team was a year away from truly contending, but as soon as Durant got that lucky bounce to win Game 1 against Dallas you got the feeling that this year’s Thunder are “That effin’ team”.  That team that has all the stars aligned and gets the lucky bounces when needed (think back to last year’s Mavs).

            When I say lucky bounces, I’m not calling what they are doing as a lucky streak.  No one can take away what OKC has gone through, and should they win it all the path to the title would be one of the harder in recent memory (I’ll still take the Mavs 4 opponents as being tougher based on LA/Dallas both being dramatically worse this year).  However, playoff basketball has a certain luck factor at the end of games.  In the last 15 seconds of the game, with a chance to tie or take the lead, the Thunder has made 3 of their 5 opportunities this post-season.  Their opponents? Zero for five.  Now is when the Thunder-bandwagoners start preaching about how clutch Kevin Durant is and that is the difference.  What I have to say to that is look at who took those five shots against the Thunder: Nowitzki, Terry, Bryant, Bryant and Ginobili.  That’s the last 3 NBA Finals’ MVP’s going 0-3, as well as Dirk, Kobe and Manu easily being in the top 6 or 7 of guys you would want to take a last shot, and JET proved he has the stones to hit the buzzer-beater as well.  Once again, very similar to Dallas’ playoff run of last year, during which Dwyane Wade, Durant, Kobe and Brandon Roy combined to go 0-6 in such situations, while Dirk and JET went 5-7.

            The Thunder has also proven to have a dominant home court advantage during these playoffs, as they have gone 8-0 in Chesapeake Energy Arena.  This could be huge against Miami since they do have home court advantage.    What the Thunder has not proven is their ability to use their athleticism to shut a team down defensively.  If you take out the two blowouts against San Antonio and Dallas in which the old fellas’ gave up by the fourth quarter, OKC is giving up just slightly under 100 points a game.  Now this is not an issue when you are scoring 102.3 like they are, but Miami will be far and away the best defensive team they have faced. 

Miami Heat, 2^nd Seed in the East; 46-20 regular season record

How they got here:

1^st Round: 4-1 over New York; 2^nd Round: 4-2 over Indiana; 3^rd Round: 4-3 over Boston

            The Miami Heat found their way back to the Finals for a second consecutive year, but it was in slightly less impressive fashion on the surface.  I originally thought it a no-brainer that the Thunder had a harder road, but after further analysis I think I give that edge to Miami.  Most of that has to do with the fact that Chris Bosh was out for the majority of both the Indiana and Boston series, but it also has to do with the teams.  The Mavericks and Lakers are in complete disarray (who would have thought Lamar Kardashian could ruin TWO teams’ seasons?) but the Spurs were a legitimately good team that went cold at the wrong time.  The Heat had to do with the Knicks, probably the most feared team outside of the top 6 or 7 contenders, followed by the deepest team in the league Indiana and the most veteran-savvy in Boston.  What was most impressive was that they did this against the three best centers in the East not named Dwight (and probably 3 of the top 5 of 6), while starting the likes of Dexter Pittman, Ronnie Turiaf, and Joel Anthony at center.

            The absence of Bosh is further a tribute to how well LeBron has played.  Bosh accounted for about 20% of Miami’s total points and rebounds per game.  So what has LeBron done? Raise his rebounds a game by 3 and points by 6 from the regular season, whilst playing power forward for stretches.  James has upped his scoring, rebounding, blocks, and shooting percentage in each round of the playoffs.  More importantly, when the Miami had their backs against the wall in game 4 against Indiana and game 6 against Boston, he did what only he can do on the face of this Earth.  40 points, 18 rebounds and 9 assists against the Pacers while playing 44 minutes.  45 points on 19-26 shooting (16 or the 19 were jumpers!!!) 15 rebounds, 5 assists, playing every second until being taken out at the end of the blow out.  People can say that he chokes at the end of games under pressure, but what they fail to realize is that there are games where he dominates them so completely that he can watch the end of the game on the bench.

            It has been a rocky post-season for the Heat with Bosh’s injury, Dwyane Wade playing up and down, the role players completely vanishing some nights; but LeBron has been the rock and is the reason they are back in the Finals.  I hate the guy for his “Decision” and premature ejaculatory championship celebrations more than anyone, but you have to respect the greatness that he brings to the table.

What to look for:

            For the first time since Michael Jordan and Karl Malone squared off in the ’98 Finals, the MVP and Runner-up are facing off for the NBA Championship.  It’ll also be the first time since Wilt Chamberlain and Nate Thurmond in the ’67 Finals that the MVP and Runner-up will be an actual matchup in the Finals’ games.  While Durant probably won’t spend much time checking LeBron, I imagine that James will want the opportunity to shut Durant down as much as possible.  It will just be up to Spoelstra on how much he will use him and Shane Battier, who has handled Durant well by getting physical with him (side note: why is it that no one talks about how little time Durant has spent in the weight room? I doubt he could even bench 200 pounds.  Does he not realize that if he did add some bulk to his frame that he could attack as ferociously as LeBron on both ends of the floor???). 

Either way, Miami has the defensive matchups in their favor.  If the Heat go big with a Wade-James-Battier-Bosh-Anthony lineup, then they can put Wade on Westbrook, James/Battier on Harden/Durant.  No other team in the league (especially not the first three the Thunder has faced in the playoffs) has three wing defenders like Miami.  The size and strength of those three should be able to stymie the Thunder’s quickness.  Another wing question is how much will Scott Brooks play Thabo Sefolosha on LeBron?  He is far and away their best wing defender, but if he is on the court one of the Thunder’s scoring threats will have to take a seat (unless he rolls the dice with Durant on Bosh, which Durant’s lack of weight-room time doesn’t lend that option much good).  I’m sure Brooks will keep starting Sefolosha with Harden coming off the bench to provide the microwave scoring, but it will be interesting to see how he rotates them once Harden does come in the game.  With that said, I’m going to have to give the slight edge to the Heat in the back court, just because if LeBron gets that look he had in game 6 then he will get the edge if he was starting next to Tyrion Lannister and Arya Stark.

The front court matchups are just as tough to decipher.  Is Chris Bosh really 100% healthy?  Can Kendrick Perkins keep his attitude in check?  Will Serge Ibaka continue hitting jumpers at a high clip?  Will the Heat’s starting center touch the ball?  All valid and important questions, but let’s start with Bosh.  Is he over-rated and somewhat spare? Yes, without a doubt; but he is still one of the better scoring options in the post (by in the post I mean a post player, I know he doesn’t actually score on the block) in the league.  If the shooting touch he showed in the last two games against Boston continues, he will be able to drag Ibaka (it has to be Ibaka on him after the case of concrete-foot that Perkins came down with against the Spurs) away from the rim and open up driving lanes for LeBron and Wade.  As far as Ibaka’s shooting, I feel like he is due for some regression, which for Oklahoma City’s sake he realizes before jacking up too many.  The x-factor of course though is Bosh’s health which I still think he was running gingerly in game 7 against the Celtics.  So I will go ahead and give the slight front-court advantage to the Thunder.

Each team has their big 3 to turn to for the majority of the game, but as the Mavs’ J.J. Barea proved last year, there is always a game or turned decided by a role player.  OKC has Perkins and Fisher who each have been here and won rings.  Perkins’ game doesn’t lead to decisive plays but more of a consistency.  Fisher has hit many big shots in his career in the playoffs, but he might be staring at a younger, better-shooting version of himself in Mario Chalmers.  Chalmers has shown since his National-Championship-Winning shot at Kansas that he is not afraid of the moment.  Last year he shot 14-35 from 3-point range in the Finals against Dallas, including three games where he made 3 or more (two ended up Miami wins).  He only hit on 31% against Boston so I’m expecting him to have a much better series, especially with Russell Westbrook’s lack of discipline on defense and the chances he takes.

There seems to be more variables with these two teams than a normal Finals’ of recent memory.  It might have to do with the fact that for the first time in 14 years one of the Western Conference Stalwarts are not playing in the Finals, but both teams have such wide gaps of play.  Whether it’s LeBron playing hot potato or playing like he is John McClane in a hostage situation.  Then there is Russell Westbrook who has not shown much of his me-first, hog the ball attitude, but if it comes out then it will be the Thunder’s downfall.  There is also Chris Bosh’s injury and whether or not he is going to be at his full potential.  Can the Thunder deal with the pressure or will they fold?  With all of these questions hampering one’s ability to foresee what might happen, I’m going to go with what I know.  I know Mario Chalmers comes up big when the lights are brightest so I think he will swing one game, whether it be a run of threes in a row or a game-winner.  I know that the way that home court plays out, the team with home-court advantage is at a distinct disadvantage if they lose one of the first two, or lose game 3 and 4.  I know that Dwyane Wade knows that since he has been on both sides of it, so I think he and LeBron will play almost every second of one of those games to steal the home court advantage.  I don’t know how the Thunder will react to the biggest of stages.  I don’t know if their late game luck will continue.  I know I picked the Heat to win it all before the playoffs started.  I know I hate LeBron James for wanting to be a brand instead of just a basketball player.  But I know that if aliens came down and threatened to take over the planet ala Space Jam, but we had to pick a team to play, LeBron James is without a doubt the first person I pick.  Heat in 6.

MLB Quarter-Season Outlook

So now that the quarter-mark of the MLB season has passed, I thought it’d be a good time to check back with my pre-season predictions and make adjustments for forecasting the rest of the season.

N.L. East                              

Pre-Season Prediction                                               Currents Standings

Phillies                                                                        Braves 26-17

Nationals -5                                                                Nationals 25-17

Marlins -6                                                                   Marlins 23-19

Braves -8                                                                    Mets 22-20

Mets    -21                                                                   Phillies 21-22

The lack of Ryan Howard in the lineup might b e having a larger effect than I originally though, but being only 5 games back without your best offensive player is nothing to worry about too much.  What should worry the Phillies are the runs that the Braves have been producing.  The Braves are second in the NL in runs scored after struggling in that department last year.  If their pitching can keep at the decent level it is at then Atlanta definitely has a shot. 

However, I’m not giving up on the Phillies just yet.  Their worst starter is Joe Blanton: Joe Blanton with his ERA of 3.74 with 5 quality starts.  If Philadelphia starts scoring runs at all, then 5 games is nothing, especially with the high number of games remaining against the Braves.  I also still think the Nationals will pass the Braves.  Their team ERA is leading the majors and Bryce Harper is having just the impactful splash that I thought he would.  So maybe the race is a little closer, but I’ll keep my pre-season thoughts intact, with maybe the Braves staying ahead of the Marlins.

N.L. Central

Pre-Season Prediction                                               Current Standings

Reds                                                                            Cardinals 23-19

Pirates -7                                                                    Reds 22-19

Brewers -8                                                                  Pirates 20-22

Cardinals -10                                                             Astros 19-23

Cubs -17                                                                     Brewers 17-25

Astros -41                                                                   Cubs 15-27

Maybe my most under-ratement of a team (99% due to spite, 1% due to the loss of El Hombre) the Cardinals have been the second most dominant team in baseball with a run differential of +58.  The loss of Pujols has given more at-bats to their younger talent of Allen Craig (.373/.424/.765) and Jon Jay (.343/.393/.438) and Carlos Beltran has broken out for 13 bombs and 33 RBI.  What is even scarier is that Chris Carpenter hasn’t pitched an inning and Adam Wainwright has an ERA of 5.77.  Lance Lynn, Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse have picked up the slack with a 15-5 record, 16 quality starts and all with a sub-3.00 ERA.

With all of that said, I think the Reds will eke it out over St. Louis.  With just a half game separating them, I trust the Reds’ lineup more than the Cardinals’ and Johnny Cueto is the real deal (and I made a STUPID fantasy trade, thinking I was trading high on a guy about to plummet!!!!).  I also feel like the Pirates have enough to challenge for the second spot in the division, but I’ll give the Cardinals their due and concede them into the spot. 

I definitely under-rated the Astros too: they aren’t the worst team ever, just really bad.  The Cubs on the other hand, might be the worst team ever and will easily challenge for 100 losses.  The Brewers have nothing going outside of Ryan Bruan, especially Yovanni Gallardo (Damn fantasy pick).

N.L. West

Pre-Season Prediction                                               Current Standings

Diamondbacks                                                           Dodgers 29-13

Giants -3                                                                     Giants 22-20

Dodgers -7                                                                  Diamondbacks 19-24

Rockies -10                                                                 Padres 16-27

Padres -12                                                                  Rockies 15-26

The Dodgers have surprised everyone, however the slipper might be about to fall off due to Matt Kempt’s injury.  However, I don’t think they will regress to far as the over-rating of Arizona leaves 3 teams in the division with easier wins then say the East divisions.  Andre Ethier is having a solid enough campaign to be the fill-in Kemp for the time being, and Chris Capuno has come out of nowhere to be a solid starter. 

Melky Cabrera is carrying the Giants’ offense with a .360/.407/.512 and if Pablo Sandoval can come off of the DL quickly then they have a shot to challenge the Dodgers.  They will need Tim Lincecum to sharke off that 6.04 ERA and join the other 4 starters at 3.00 and under.  The Diamondbacks will need Justin Upton to continue hitting and stay healthy along with the soon to be off of the disabled list Daniel Hudson (who I traded Cueto for) to have a monster second half.  I’m going to have to go with a switch at the top, with San Francisco just edging out Arizona, and the Dodgers falling into 3^rd place.

A.L. East

Pre-Season Prediction                                               Current Standings

Yankees                                                                      Orioles 27-16

Rays -1                                                                       Rays 25-18

Blue Jays -4                                                                Blue Jays 24-19

Red Sox -5                                                                  Yankees 21-21

Orioles -29                                                                  Red Sox 21-21           

Notice I did not call the Dodgers the surprise team, as that title belongs to the Orioles.  I will admit I complete underestimated the team, but I am still not buying into them… this year.  They have a good nucleus and Adam Jones is an absolute stud- .307/.351/.602 with 14 homers and 29 RBI.  Chris Davis still strikes out a lot, but is somehow balancing a .300 batting average with it.  They have a powerful lineup, however their pitching staff leaves something to be desired.  The bullpen is solid, but they have 3 starters hover around ERA’s of 5.00. 

As a disclaimer, I wrote the pre-season predictions before the Pineda and Rivera injuries crippled both parts of the Yankees’ pitching staff.  With those two injuries in mind, I think the Rays will win the division.  They have had a tough early schedule and have battled injuries, but I trust Joe Madden to pull it off.  If Longoria comes back hitting the same way he was before the hamstring injury (.329/.433/.561) and Matt Moore can pull out the magic he showed in the post-season then Tampa Bay could run away with the division.

The Yankees should be able to hammer their way back into wild-card position, leaving the Blue Jays and Orioles to battle for third place.  I think it will come down to a mid-season trade for a starter for both of them, and whomever can get the better pitcher will be able to outlast the other.  So I’ll stick with the Blue Jays in third, but am hopeful that the Orioles can stay above the Expensive Red Sox.

A.L. Central

Pre-Season Prediction                                               Current Standings

Tigers                                                                         Indians 23-18

Royals -12                                                                  White Sox 21-21

Indians -18                                                                 Tigers 20-21

Twins -20                                                                   Royals 17-24

White Sox -21                                                            Twins 14-27

In easily the worst division in baseball, the Tigers have not come out of the gate strong.  Four of the five teams have negative run differentials, and it would be all 5 if not for a recent winning streak by Chicago.  Asdrubal Cabrera has not regressed with his .309/.404/.504 but the rest of the lineup is leaving something to be desired, with no other regular batting above .270 for the Indians.  Derek Lowe is carrying the team with his 6-2 record and 2.15 ERA while only striking out 2.30 per nine innings.  I’m not sold on the Indians being able to hold off the sure-to-come Tigers’ surge.

The Royals have had an up-and-down first quarter, as if you take out their 12 game losing streak they would be a strong 17-12.  Their young bats are starting to come around, and if Eric Hosmer finds his pop then they can make a run at the division.  What’s more inspiring, is Felipe Paulino’s 13.2 inning scoreless streak and Bruce Chen shutting down the Rangers.  If this pitching staff can get to a serviceable level for the rest of the season, then Kansas City has a shot. 

I think the Tigers still pull it out, but by a much closer margin over Kansas City.  The Indians should stay ahead of the White Sox but I’ll sway with Chicago staying ahead of Minnesota.

A.L. West

Pre-Season Predication                                             Current Standings

Rangers                                                                      Rangers 26-17

Angels -1                                                                    Athletics 22-21

Mariners -25                                                              Mariners 20-24

Athletics -32                                                               Angels 18-25

A recent run of bad baseball has derailed the high number of wins that Texas was on pace for, but they are still easily the class of the division, and probably of the American League.  Their run differential of +79 is twice as much as anyone else in the league, and they are sitting at a 94.6 playoff percentage with 119 games to play.  Josh Hamilton has slowed down, but is still leading the Triple Crown categories, and the starting pitching has regressed from their unbelievably hot start.  The Neftali Feliz injury is worrisome, but not as much to Texas as they have a 17-game winner to slide into their 5^th rotation spot.  I just can’t see any of the three contenders in their division being able to keep up with the 8 game cushion on the only serious challenger.

The Athletics have been surprising with their AAA lineup and injured starting pitching.  The Brandon McCarthy injury is going to slow them down some, as they are hoping that Dallas Braden can throw soon.  Josh Reddick is having a breakout year leading the team in every offensive category.  The Mariners have shown some promise, and with King Felix coming back to his form last night against Texas, they are still a tough out when he is pitching. 

The Angels have to easily be the disappointment of the young season along with their $300 million dollar pop-out machine, Albert Pujols.  Mark Trumbo and Mike Trout are the bright spots on the team, with .336/.403/.586 and .350/.413/.600 respectively.  Jered Weaver has been phenomenal but the rest of the rotation is leaving something to be desired.  The bullpen has been atrocious.  If the Angels can turn their pitching staff back to where it should be, and Pujols can start raking then they still have a shot at the wild card as the East teams beat each other up.

I’ll have to leave the order the same, with a closer gap between all of the teams and the A’s possibly switching with the Mariners.

Playoff Teams:

National League:

Champions: Phillies, Reds, Giants

Wild Cards: Nationals and Cardinals

American League:

Champions: Rays, Tigers, Rangers

Wild Cards: Yankees, Angels

Division Series Winners:  Reds and Nationals; Rangers and Rays

World Series: Rangers over Reds in 6

I’ll leave the majority the same, but switching in the Cardinals and Giants for the Marlins and Diamondbacks.

AWARDS:

N.L. MVP: Pre-Season: Matt Kemp; Runner-up: Andrew McCutchen

This is risky as I am not sure he can keep it up after the injury, but I’m going to have to take McCutchen going forward.  McCutchen has 7 home runs, 21 RBI and 7 steals while batting .340 and is just hitting his stride.  Ryan Braun is just behind him with 12/30/8 batting .333 and David Wright is also in the mix with 4/25/4 hitting .415.  So I’ll just flip the order of the top two predicted.

A.L. MVP: Pre-Season: Robinson Cano; Runner-up: Ian Kinsler

Cano has been solid, 4/16/1 and .303, but not spectacular.  Kinsler has been the better second baseman, but his teammate is leading my thoughts for the rest of the season.  Josh Hamilton is having one of the better starts to a season in MLB History as he is still on pace to hit around 72 home runs and 190 RBI (both near records) while hitting just under .400.  He won’t be able to keep the pace up, even if he stays healthy, but he has given himself quite a cushion.  The before-mentioned Adam Jones has the best shot to catch him, as he is the only other American Leaguer bringing all 5 tools to the table at a high rate right now.  I’m going to lean towards Hamilton, with Kinsler making a late season surge to remain runner-up.

N.L. Cy Young: Pre-Season: Clayton Kershaw; Runner-up: A.J. Burnett

The Burnett prediction was a little optimistic, but Kershaw has been on the money with a 1.90 ERA and 51 strikeouts.  Brandon Beachy has distinguished himself as the clear second place right now with a 1.33 ERA and 39 K’s to go with 5 wins.  The other contender is the contract year Cole Hamels is having at 6 wins, 2.48 ERA and 58 strikeouts.  I’ll leave Kershaw in first and Beachy in second.

A.L. Cy Young: Pre-Season: Justin Verlander; Runner-up: Colby Lewis

Verlander came within 2 outs of his third no-hitter in his last outing, and is at a 2.14 ERA with a 0.80 WHIP and 68 K’s in 67.1 innings.  He is the clear favorite.  Jered Weaver has his no-hitter to go with 6 wins and a 2.80 ERA, and is probably in runner-up position just ahead of Jake Peavy.  If you take away Yu Darvish’s two starts against Seattle, then he is right with Verlander at 5-1 with 1.94 ERA and a strikeout an inning.  The Colby Lewis prediction would look decent… if you take out two starts as well; nevertheless he is still at 3.30 ERA and 53 strikeouts.  Not terrible, but he is just behind the top tier.  I’ll keep Verlander at 1 and Weaver at runner up, but Yu Darvish lurking the break into the top 2.

N.L. Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper

Since coming up a few weeks ago, Harper has gone .256/.340/.451 with 2 homers and the ballsiest steal of home I’ve ever seen.  He has kept his attitude in check for the most part, and is showing off his defensive ability and base-running more than anything.  Wade Miley of the Diamondbacks is probably ahead of him right now (2.14 ERA) but I’m leaning toward Harper keeping up his pace.

A.L. Rookie of the Year: Yu Darvish

As mentioned earlier, Yu would probably be in the lead for Cy Young if he could not freeze up when pitching against his childhood hero Ichiro.  The guy has just been dominant, including 14 K’s in a game against the Indians and shown his anti-C.J. Wilson by coming back out after a 2-hour rain delay to beat the Angels.  Mike Trout is having a good start, but he will need a huge drop-off from Darvish to even get into the conversation.