Super Bowl Pick

            It has been quite annoying and frustrating to see all of these Super Bowl “predictions” over the past week.  Most of these “predictions” are from journalism or broadcast journalism majors, so shouldn’t they know the meaning of the word? 

Prediction: to predict, as usually to foretell with precision of calculation, knowledge, or shred inference from facts or experience. (dictionary.com)

So if one is to give the winner of the game as the 49ers, as well as the final score, they would be making a prediction.  However, if the person then rights a small paragraph qualifying how the Ravens could win as well since it is “such a close match-up” or giving reasons how their “prediction” could be wrong, then the person is not making a prediction.  They are trying to play both sides of the fence, so that no matter what happens in the game the person is right in the end.

            For example, Elizabeth Merril of ESPN said, “Heart says that every time the Ravens have seemed overmatched in the postseason, they’ve managed to pull out a win.  Head says San Francisco is just the better team.”  Can you even tell who she is picking?  Kevin Jackson of ESPN said, “The Niners are the more well-rounded team, but Baltimore is the hot squad.”  By qualifying that he thinks the 49ers are better, if they win his Ravens’ pick will not look as bad (to him).  John Clayton picked the 49ers, but said “...It will not surprise me if they needed overtime to get the win.”  By saying that, if the Ravens win, he has an out saying that he thought San Francisco would need OT, so it was that close.  Mike Golic might have the most criminal of all “predictions” with his summary, “San Francisco may be the better team, but I picked the Ravens at the start of the year, and I still they have the team to do it.”  Not only is it an illicit humblebrag about his preseason prediction, he basically says he thinks that San Francisco will win but he has to pick the Ravens because he did it during the preseason. 

            If you are going to make a prediction, pick a score, or explain why a team will win, then pick a side and stick to it!  Do not waver on the fence, especially on a game like this matchup.  If you are thinking that San Francisco will win, then there probably is not a doubt in your mind that their defense, running game and Colin Kaepernick will just keep it going and the Ravens are too old.  If you think that Baltimore will win, then... well I will get to that.  Either way, you know why you think a team will win, but are afraid to say it.  It is not like this is Super Bowl V where the Cowboys and Colts were so evenly matched that the line was a Pick ‘Em and it was a last second field to break a tie and win the game for the Colts. 

            With that said, let’s get down to the actual game.  The first thing that jumped out at me was the line.  As soon as the Baltimore/New England game ended, Vegas opened the line at San Francisco -5.  Within an hour or so, that line was bet down to -4, and has even hovered to -3.5 at the MGM.  Do you know who bets the Super Bowl line two weeks before the actual game? People who know things and take a good value when you see it.  So the sharps are all over Baltimore.  The actual line also tells you something.  The line-setters know that San Francisco is probably the second most publically bet team (meaning that they bring in money no matter how big the game is, or how good the team is because they have a wide fan base) to the Cowboys. Almost every Cowboys/49ers line is bumped a point or two regularly to account for the lop-sided percentage of where the bets are (not a factor in the ‘70’s or Super Bowl V).  Then, you factor in that the Super Bowl is the most bet on game every year, the bump probably is closer to 2.5 or 3 points.  So when you factor the public bump, the line of what Vegas actually thinks the game stands at is about 1 or even a half point.

            You know what I take away from the line?  Baltimore is the actual favorite in the systems that Vegas use to accurately predict the outcomes of games.  The bookmakers just know though that if they open with a Ravens’ favorite, the amount of San Francisco money would be so obscene that if the 49ers did win, then Vegas would get absolutely hammered.  I mean, the point of the line is to get even money on both sides, not to accurately predict the outcome.  That was the straw that broke the camel’s back for me as far as which side of the fence I am on.

            Now, the actual football that will be played also favors the Ravens in my opinion.  Baltimore has been winning in the playoffs off of the high-mid range to deep passing game with Flacco’s huge arm, Torrey Smith’s speed, and Anquan Boldin’s unrivaled ball ability in the air.  The average NFL game saw just fewer than three passes of twenty yards or more per team.  Against Denver’s top rated (against the pass as well the deep ball) defense, Baltimore had five plays of 19 yards or more, including 59- and 70-yard touchdowns.  Two weeks ago, Baltimore got a double-digit lead early in the second half and did not need the deep pass as much, but still managed four completions over twenty yards.  In the Ravens’ first playoff game against Indianapolis, Flacco connected on SEVEN 20+ yard completions, along with an 18-yard touchdown.  The Ravens were fifth in the league this season in that stat category. 

            San Francisco is known for its vaunted defense with six All-Pro standouts.  However, only one of their All-Pro’s is a defensive back, and it was a Safety.  The 49ers did not give up many long completions during the season; however the quarterbacks they faced in their division had some of the fewest 20-yard passes of any NFL team (Sam Bradford, Russell Wilson, and Kevin Kolb/John Skelton).  San Francisco also got to face Jason Campbell, Ryan Tannehill, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Christian Ponder, and Mark Sanchez.  That means that eleven of their sixteen games were played against terrible deep ball passers, all in the bottom ten of the league.  Against the top half of the deep ball teams in the league, San Francisco gave up no fewer than four and an average of five per game (25 of their 38 given up where in those five games).  Against more elite passing teams in the playoffs, San Francisco has been burned.  Atlanta completed six passes of 20 or more yards, and Green Bay completed five of 19 or more yards.  With that said, Torrey Smith is faster than Julio Jones and Anquan Boldin is better in the air than James Jones/Greg Jennings.

            Now when San Francisco has the ball, they have a public perception to have an advantage due to their pistol rushing attack and the arm/poise of Colin Kaepernick.  The pistol has been quite successful the past two games, but I see that coming to an end.  Green Bay was wholly unprepared for the rushing attack because San Francisco had used it sparingly in the previous two games.  Atlanta was then prepared to stop Kaepernick, so Jim Harbaugh threw in his genius stroke: the option blocker.  The pistol zone read is similar to the normal shotgun zone read in that the quarterback reads the defensive end: the end crashes, quarterback keeps; end hesitates, give to the back.  What the pistol allows is a lead blocker on the zone read.  Now the Falcons accounted for the blocker, but Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman give the blocker the option on who to block.  Rather than just blindly lead the hole for the back or seal the end for the quarterback, the blocker makes the read as well.  Should the end crash, the blocker than leads the quarterback and takes the linebacker responsible for the QB.  Should the end hesitate, the lead blocker leads through the hole and takes on the filling middle backer.

            Atlanta did not recognize this, causing Frank Gore to run untouched into the end zone twice.  The Ravens are the smartest defense in the league because of the experience between Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and Terrell Suggs.  They will be ready for it, and I suspect they will put a spy on the blocker: the spy will go wherever the lead blocker goes, therefore putting the numbers back in favor of the defense.  Now I know that Jim Harbaugh will have some new wrinkle, but there really is not much more he can add to the pistol that would drastically change the Ravens’ game plan.  The Ravens also adapt better than most teams, as they proved in their playoff wins against Tom Brady and Peyton Manning already this postseason.

            Should the Ravens prevail, Joe Flacco will then have his ninth career playoff victory, good for ninth place all time in terms of quarterbacks.  He is just 28.  Are we sure that Joe Flacco is not discreetly becoming one of the top-5 quarterbacks in the league?  People call Eli Manning elite and one of the best because of his post-season success.  A win Sunday would give Flacco more playoff victories, but he is four years younger.  In Flacco’s last seven post season games, he has fifteen touchdowns and only two interceptions, while completing over 60% of his passes, and almost 250 yards a game.  Of course Flacco benefits from having a great team around him, but outside of the Ravens 2000 Super Bowl run, Baltimore has just one non-Flacco post season win in 12 seasons.  He is also a dropped pass from starting his second Super Bowl.  Maybe I had the quarterback from the 2008 Draft that was going to make The Leap this postseason wrong.

            Lastly, I think Colin Kaepernick will go down.  The Ravens are going to make Kaepernick beat them and his arm has been vastly over-rated.  He made one great pass to Crabtree in the Green Bay game, but he was off target numerous times against Atlanta.  He ended up with a decent game because the Falcons forgot to cover Vernon Davis several times so he just had to loft the ball out there (even then, he limited Davis’ YAC a couple of times).  Baltimore will not make such mistakes.  Kaepernick will then be forced to run the ball, and Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Paul Kruger and Bernard Pollard will make him pay.  There will be an Alex Smith sighting (good odds on the over 2.5 quarterbacks!) and his confidence has been shattered. 

The underdog has covered in eight of the last eleven Super Bowls.  The lower seed is undefeated in the last seven Super Bowls against the spread.  The Ravens’ defense is healthier than it has been all season (especially Haloti Ngata).  Baltimore has deceivingly been more impressive the past two games than San Francisco.  Justin Tucker can handle pressure situations (ask an Aggie) and David Akers has the yips.  Ray Lewis will do his dance with some deer antlers on his helmet, but Flacco will get the MVP with a couple of deep touchdowns to Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin as well as a screen that Ray Rice takes the distance.  Ravens 31-21. 

Prop Bets Coming Sunday!!

Last Week: 0-1-1 (Although I actually bet on the Falcons at +4.5)

Playoffs: 5-4-1

Overall: 149-108-7

Please Stop Talking About Tyson

I am absolutely fed up with the ignorance and short-sightedness that comes with Mavericks’ “Fans” acting like if Dallas had kept Tyson Chandler then they would be about to win their third straight title.  Not only is that an absolute pipe dream, it also shows the greed that Dallas fans have developed.  I mean, a year ago the Mavs were raising the banner, do you not remember?  Now you want to second guess and criticize ownership/management.  The first thing to do is dispel the theory that Tyson Chandler can be a centerpiece to an NBA title team. 

“But Michael, the Mavs won it all with Tyson as a key part!” 

Like I have said previously, Chandler was probably the fourth or fifth most important reason that Dallas won that year.  His lack of an offensive game besides alley-oops and put-back dunks cannot carry a team in today’s NBA.  He has never even averaged 12 points a game for the season!  Not only that, but he has only one season averaging a double-double. 

“But he is the Defensive Player of the Year!” 

Tyson is not even in the top 35 in blocked shots this season, nor has he ever averaged over two a game.  He has upped his rebounding average, and he still is a top 15 defensive player, but his effect on the game is not strong enough to overcome his offensive deficiency.  He does affect many shots, and his rotations are usually spot-on, but he largely won the award last season because of the playoffs the year before.  By the way, only three times has the Defensive Player of the Year won the NBA title the same year, and only Ben Wallace was an offensive burden (but they had four other All-Stars around him). 

“But the Knicks are at the top of the East with him!”

New York has a Top-4 in the East roster without Tyson Chandler.  For comparisons sake, let’s look at the Mavericks’ roster if they had kept Tyson compared to the Knicks now.  Carmelo is far and away better than Dirk now, with the injuries and age factors.  There is no OJ Mayo here with Tyson’s big contract, so JET and his washed up jumper (42% FG/35% 3P) is the second best player.  J.R. Smith is a taller, more athletic, younger, and better defensive version of JET.  Raymond Felton has taken the next step to becoming a high-level point guard, and Amare Stoudemire is coming off the bench.  Ya know, Amare Stoudemire who would be the Mavs’ second best player right now.  Besides, last year with Tyson, Amare and Melo, the Knicks got just as far as the Mavs: first round defeat.  The fact of the matter is Chandler is a role player on the Knicks, and even then it does not automatically equal a contender.  He would have to be the second fiddle in Dallas.

“But Dallas won it all once! Why couldn’t they do it again?”

Need I remind you how lucky Dallas got on that playoff run?  They earned and deserved the championship, but the stars were perfectly aligned.  They got an over-rated Portland team that was a good matchup.  They then got to play the Lakers who showed their implosion factor during game four of that series, as well as Pau Gasol no-showing due to off-the-court issues.  Dallas then played the Thunder, whose top four players were all just 22/23 years old and not quite ready for the big time yet.  Lastly, the Mavericks played the Heat when they were still figuring out how to play together.  Miami did not yet add the perfect complimentary pieces they have since (Battier, Miller, Allen) and LeBron was still playing second fiddle.  If LeBron would have taken over (like last year’s playoffs) the Mavs would not have stood a chance.  There was no way that the Dallas title team could have beaten OKC or Miami last year, Tyson Chandler or not.  Nor would they be able to beat the top teams now, who have only gotten better.

“But if we at least had Tyson, then he could be used as a trade chip!”

While this argument actually has merit, the basis on which the signing would have happened would have been completely illogical.  Dallas would have had to have ESP to know that Dwight Howard would choose to not opt out of his last year, starting a domino effect that really hamstrung the Mavericks’ plans.  Deron and Dwight wanted to play together.  Period.  The only places possible were Dallas and Houston, with both openly preferring Dallas.  The Orlando/National media pushed Dwight into making the bad decision to not opt out because he does not want to be seen as the bad guy.  If he does, then the Mavs have all three D’s playing right now, and no one would be talking about Tyson Chandler. 

Furthermore, does no one else remember Tyson Chandler before his season in Dallas?  Ten years, where he missed at least 12% of the season in seven of them, over half of the year in three of them.  So by signing Tyson Chandler, you would have been saying that you are going to go to battle with him as your second best player (which to keep him you would have had to pay him that much).  No championship team since the Celtics with Bill Russell has had a second best player who averaged less than 15 points a game.  It is just the facts.  Imagine if they had signed Chandler, and Dirk would have been hurt the past couple of seasons.  It could have gotten ugly without Kaman/Carter/Mayo/Brand this year, which none of them (maybe Carter) would have been here with Chandler.

So please stop acting like the Mavs threw away Dirk’s prime or more titles.  They did not.  They set the team up for the future, rather than rolling the dice on a guy who can’t score three points a quarter with a lengthy injury history.  If Dwight Howard would have made his decision sooner, then maybe the Mavs keep him for the trade purposes he would now be helpful with.  However, Donnie Nelson and Mark Cuban went with the more likely option of signing a superstar free agent or just keeping their options open rather than being stuck with an injury-plagued offensive-liability with a max contract.  For goodness sakes, we just got to experience a title a year and a half ago.  Trust in the front office to take the Mavs back.

NFL Championship Weekend Picks

As I said in the opening last week, the Divisional Playoff Round is by far the toughest to handicap.  Even when you have the team right, and they dominating for over 50 minutes, they have to come back and win but no cover.  Or the team that you have as the hottest coming into the game decides to give the game away at both ends of the half.  Then there is always the second year quarterback in his first playoff game that decides he wants to run like Randall Cunningham in Tecmo Super Bowl (and for those are who are acting like they knew Kaepernick was going to do that, please go bury your head in sand).

The trend from last week was solid at 2-1, I just picked the wrong 1.  I had no idea that the Green Bay defense decided to, you know, not prepare for the running aspect of the dual-threat quarterback they were facing.  The most outstanding trend of the championship round: there is usually at least one blowout.  There is not much other precedent, especially with a number 1 seed, at home, getting over a field goal.

FALCONS +4 over 49ers

So the Falcons dominate the Seahawks for the majority of the game, and then came through to pull it out in the end, but they are four point underdogs, at home, to a team that just got blown out of the building by that same Seahawks team just three weeks ago?  Lest I remind you that the last time Colin Kaepernick was on the road, he only completed 52% of his passes, with an interception, a quarterback rating of 72, and only 31 yards rushing?  The value here is too much to pass up, even if you think that San Francisco is just that much better than Atlanta.  The Falcons’ money line at +175 looks appetizing.

PATRIOTS -8 over Ravens

Tom Brady/Bill Belichick do not lose games like this.  Couple that with the blowout potential in the championship round, and the fact that the old Ravens defense had to play almost an extra half last week, and this one could get out of hand.  I expect the Patriots to put Welker in a position to have Ray Lewis cover him, in which Welker will dominate.  The eight is somewhat scary, and it might be worth buying to 7 in case of a backdoor cheap touchdown, but the Pats are definitely the play here.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Falcons +14, Falcons/49ers Over 37, Patriots +2

Props:

+450 Tony Gonzales to score first for Atlanta/+800 for the game

That seems too high

+140 Atlanta to score Last in the game

Either they will be playing catch up, or they will need the score to win

+125 Will there be a score in the first five minutes of the NE/BAL Game: Yes

The big play potential of Baltimore plus the hurry-up of the Patriots with odds in my favor? Thank you.

EVEN -.5 More points score in the second half SF/ATL

I’m sure the Falcons have some sort of defense to stop Kaepernick, so they 49ers will need a half to figure it out.

Over 46.5 Longest touchdown in SF/ATL game

Kaepernick, Moss, Crabtree, Davis, White, Rodgers and Julio Jones.

-150 San Francisco penalized first

The Falcons are the least penalized team in the league.

Under 14 Largest lead in the SF/ATL game

I feel like it will be close.

Under 66.5 Rushing yards for Colin Kaepernick

Before last week, in his seven games as a starter he only passed this total once.

Over 80.5 Receiving yards for Michael Crabtree

He has topped this total in five of his last six games, and the other game was close.

-210 Matt Ryan will throw a touchdown before an interception

He does not throw many interceptions, and I think Matty Ice is making the leap.

+800 49ers lead at the half, Falcons win the game

Those odds are awfully high and Matty Ice is full of comeback

Over 48.5 Longest touchdown in the NE/BAL game

Brady, Welker, Lloyd, Smith, Boldin, Flacco, Rice.  A lot of big play potential.

+160 New England scores in all four quarters

Seems like a likely outcome.

Last Week: 1-3

Playoffs: 5-3

Overall: 149-107-6

NFL Divisional Round Picks

A strong start to the playoffs, with a 4-0 week, but the divisional round is usually the hardest to handicap.  The problem with the divisional round, is that there were common trends for years about the home team, or rematches, but all have been de-bunked in the past four to five years.  Home teams, better seeds, and teams that are hotter do not show any trends.  However, I did found one trend that is especially useful this week.  Since the current postseason format was adopted, there have been 31 teams to lose in week 17, but then win a home wild card playoff game.  Those 31 teams proceeded to go 3-28 straight up and 6-24-1 against the number.  The Packers, Ravens, and Texans all fit that bill and two of the three are prohibitive underdogs to teams that have already put the beat down on them earlier this season.

BRONCOS -8.5 over Ravens

Now this line opened at 8.5, was pushed all the way to 10, but has settled back at 8.5.  If it was at ten still, I would have a much tougher decision, but I love Denver here.  Some people have pointed out the cold and how Peyton Manning is not that good in the cold previously.  Well he is still Peyton Manning and Joe Flacco is still Joe Flacco.  I think the Ravens expended their emotional energy last week winning that last game for Ray.  Even if they made it last, I do not seem them lasting another week, so I will stick with Denver.

Packers +3 over 49ERS

Now I know I just talked up this huge trend and everything… but watching the replay of the 2005 Draft scene and the look on Aaron Rodgers’ face when they picked Alex Smith first… Do you realize that over the past two seasons, Aaron Rodgers has thrown 84 touchdowns and only 14 interceptions? Brady’s best over two years: 75/16, Manning’s best: 78/20; Marino’s best: 78/38; Favre’s: 77/26.  That’s pretty dominant, and now he gets to go back to his hometown, to play the team that passed over him?  Lock.

FALCONS -3 over Seahawks

Atlanta is the first ever 13-3 #1 Seed that everyone is overlooking.  The Seahawks are not a good road team, and are being over-rated for beating one of the worst playoff teams in recent memory with a gimpy quarterback.  I saw a stat from Adam Schefter comparing another quarterback to Matt Ryan’s first five seasons:

Matt Ryan: completed 62.7 percent of his passes for 18,957 yards, with a 127-60 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio and a won-loss record of 56-22

Quarterback B: completed 62 percent of his passes for 20,618 yards, with a 138-100 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio and a 42-38 record

In Quarterback B’s fifth season, he won his first playoff game and went to the conference championship game.  Quarterback B? Peyton Manning.  I am in no way saying Ryan is as good as Manning, but he is vastly under-rated and I think he might make the leap this Sunday, considering he is 35-5 in the Georgia Dome.

PATRIOTS -9.5 over Texans

Before seeing that trend stat from the opening, I was tempted by the Texans seeing that Tom Brady/Belichick are 1-6 over their last seven playoff games against the spread, and 2-7-1 against the number with an extra week of rest.  So in reality, it is a battle of two pretty strong trends.  What it came down to for me is Matt Schaub sucks.  Schaub has the second best running back, a top-4 wide receiver, the best offensive line, and arguably the best defense over the past 4 seasons and he has one playoff win.  Matt Schaub just has to not lose games for Houston, unlike Tony Romo who HAS to win the game for Dallas.  Schaub will find a way to lose this one.

10-Point Teaser of the Week: Patriots -.5, Broncos +1.5, Packers +7

Last Week: 4-0

Playoffs: 4-0

Overall: 148-104-6

NFL Wild Card Round Picks

A tough .500 week to end the regular season, but as I said last week, the majority of the games last week were un-bettable.  Now playoff betting is a whole different animal than regular season games.  Proven trends in the playoffs have more weight than the regular season, such as home-field advantage being stronger and young quarterbacks struggling.  Those two trends in particular will come in to play this weekend with three of the toughest playoff home fields and five quarterbacks in their first or second year. 

Only four rookie quarterbacks have taken their teams to the playoffs and won a game in the past 25 years, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez and Shaun King.  All four had the benefit of a dominant defense and veteran leadership all around them.  Only one of the three rookies this year has something close to that, Russell Wilson. 

Second year quarterbacks do not fare much better in the playoffs, with slightly more wins, but only two (Roethlisberger and Brady) have won a Super Bowl in the past 25 years.  Both of them, once again, had extremely good defenses and even better schemes.  This puts the chances of Andy Dalton and Christian Ponder winning playoff games down. 

            With that last stat, I lead into my playoff betting theory, specifically for pools where you pick the entire playoffs (which I will predict at the end of this piece).  My theory is similar to that of my March Madness Pool in that you want to minimize your risk, and use trends to identify a team or two that you think has the best chances to win.  You cannot just go with who has looked better or who has the better players, because we all know that neither of those really ever play out.  So when you are picking each playoff game, look at the trends for the teams in that game alone, and ask yourself which team has a better chance of winning the Super Bowl from that point forward.

            For example, even if you think the Colts are going to win this weekend but have no shot of winning the Super Bowl behind a rookie quarterback and tattered defense, it might be better to pick the Ravens.  Baltimore has proven veterans all over the field, a strong coaching staff, an experienced quarterback, and the intangible “Win It For Ray” movement that give them a decent Super Bowl chance.  So even if you think the Colts might win, the cost of not picking the Ravens could ruin your bracket in the first round.  With that said, let’s get to the Wild Card picks.

TEXANS -4.5 over Bengals

Both major trends are in play with a strong Houston home-field advantage (12-4 over the past two years at home) and the Bengals starting Dalton.  The Bengals have a decent defense, but at the same time Terrance Newman and Pacman Jones are getting significant playing time.  In no way do those two signify the dominant defenses that young quarterbacks have ridden in the past.  While Houston may be in a slump, the odds of Cincinnati winning at Denver or New England are pretty long.  The Texans, on the other hand, have already won once at Denver and could ride a win here to a long playoff run.

PACKERS -8 over Vikings

Almost the same trend-situation as the previous game with one of the most dominant home fields in the history of football (as well as 22-2 over the past three seasons) and a quite incompetent second year quarterback.  While Adrian Peterson is in a zone like no running back ever outside of a Tecmo Bowl Bo Jackson, if Minnesota gets behind he is effectively neutralized.  I mean, would you want to have to count on Christian Ponder throwing for a significant amount of yards, on the road, at Lambeau, in a playoff game?  Aaron Rodgers is playing possibly his best football ever right now which should scare the rest of the league.

RAVENS -6.5 over Colts

If this were a regular season game, I would be all over Indy getting nearly a touchdown.  Since it is the playoffs though, I would probably stay away from betting the line on this game, but stick to the Ravens money-line.  For some of the reasons stated above, as well as the ridiculous amount of luck that the Colts have received this season, (recovered almost 85% of fumbles, easiest schedule in the league, undefeated in games decided by less than a touchdown) it will run out at some point.  I do not like giving almost a touchdown with Joe Flacco either, but Baltimore is a serious contender with Ray Lewis’ motivational techniques as well as a strong home field (21-3 over the last three seasons).

Seahawks -3 over REDSKINS

This line has moved drastically over the week, with all of the money on Seattle.  Washington has the worst home field of any of the playoff teams (9-15 over the last three seasons) and both teams have rookie quarterbacks.  The main difference is the staunch Seattle defense compared to the Redskins’ 28^th ranked unit.  Against an NFL-level front seven, the Redskins will not have as much success running the ball causing RG3 to have to win games with his arm.  I do not see that happening in the playoffs with the intensity ratcheted up.  This one could get ugly.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Seahawks +7, Colts +16.5, Packers +2

Playoff Predictions:

Divisional Round:

AFC: Broncos over Ravens, Patriots over Ravens

NFC: Packers over 49ers, Falcons over Seahawks

Conference Championships:

AFC: Broncos over Patriots

NFC: Packers over Falcons

Super Bowl:

31-28: Packers over Broncos

I think I picked the wrong NFC North team pre-season, at least I got six division winners correct of the eight.

Last Week: 8-8

Overall: 144-104-6