NFL Week 11 Picks

Not a good week last week, although I feel like if Cutler/Big Ben would not have gotten hurt, I could have squeaked out a .500 week.  The trends were decent as the home underdogs went 2-2 against the spread, while the touchdown underdogs were 3-1.  I definitely had a few teams (Jets, Dolphins, Panthers) over-rated, and under-rated a few more (Ravens, Seahawks, Patriots).  I will try to correct that his week.

REDSKINS -3 over Eagles

The start of the Nick Foles era in Philly, and the Eagles’ fans are going to get a rude awakening.  I will take the number 2 overall pick in the draft over a third rounder.  The Eagles are probably done, and might just win one more game this season (in Dallas to ruin their slim playoff hopes).

LIONS +3 over Packers

The Packers are absolutely decimated by injuries and are asking a little bit too much of Aaron Rodgers.  Now while if you want to ask too much of someone, might as well be the best player on the planet.  With that said, the Lions need this game significantly more than the Packers.  A loss could end their season as the rest of the rest of their games are against playoff caliber competition.  Calvin Johnson has to get some touchdowns at some point right?

Cardinals +10 over FALCONS

These double-digit lines have been killing me.  The Saints did show some of Atlanta’s weakness, while they showed their own Red Zone issues.  Those issues are not good against a stout defense, so I think Arizona can keep this one close.

Bucs -1 over PANTHERS

It is time to start believing in Tampa Bay.  Four wins in their past five games with just the fluky loss to New Orleans.  Only three teams have not lost a game by more than a touchdown: Atlanta, New England and Tampa Bay.  Josh Freeman is looking like a star.  If the Bucs can go 2-1 over the next three, be sitting at 7-5 going into a stretch of three games against sub-.500 teams and a last game against the Falcons who might not need it…

Browns +8 over COWBOYS

Let’s not kid ourselves; Dallas was lucky to get out of Philly.  That was a close game against a bad team with its backup quarterback until a fortunate string of defensive/special teams touchdowns.  The Browns have been in every game they have played this year, surprisingly.  I think they can keep it close.

RAMS -3 over Jets

I am done with the Jets.  Just finished.  Next.

Colts +9 over PATRIOTS

Both teams are 6-3, and have very similar point differentials over the past four games.  The past four games are what really matter, since Andrew Luck is now finding his groove.  I think these two teams are closer than the line says, so I will take the touchdown’s worth of value.

Jaguars +16 over TEXANS

I am not sure if any NFL team should be favored by over two touchdowns over another.  Even if it is one of the top 3 teams against one of the 3 worst, and the better team is at home.  I just refuse to bet against a team getting 16 points… but I will tease the hell out of them.

Bengals -3.5 over CHIEFS

I know I should go the other way, in line with the opposite theory.  Cincinnati played their best game of the season (possibly best game possible).  Can they do it 2 weeks in a row?.....

CHIEFS +3.5 over Bengals

I cannot give more than a field goal, to the Bengals on the road.  I will hopefully get that half point of value.

Saints -4 over RAIDERS

New Orleans is on a roll and Drew Brees is in the zone again.  Those two things are bad for the Oakland defense.  I still think they line is a little too high, but I will not be betting this game’s line… I will be abusing the over.

Chargers +8 over BRONCOS

I know I should probably believe in Denver’s blowout ability in this game, but I do not want to leave this one double-digit line on the table.  San Diego can keep this game close… I think.

Ravens -3 over STEELERS

With no Big Ben in the lineup, I think the Ravens will win the game, so I will take the small line.  Byron Leftwich is not terrible, but he is still probably worse than Mark Sanchez making him the worst quarterback starting a game on Sunday.

49ERS +5 over Bears

This was the line Monday morning when I jumped on it, so I will go with it.  There is not a lineup on my site right now, but I figure it will settle around San Fran -3 or -4.  I would probably take them there, too, since Jason Campbell did not look good the other night.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Texans -6, Saints/Raiders Over 44, Falcons Pick ‘Em

Others I Like:

Redskins +7, Packers/Lions Over 42, Cowboys +2, Rams/Jets Under 49, Steelers/Ravens Under 50, Bucs/Panthers Over 38

Last Week: 6-8

Overall: 81-61-3

NFL Week 10 Picks

Not a strong showing last week, with an under-.500 record and a couple of my misses were big misses (why did I pick against the team I have thought is the best overall all year???).  My teasers continued to be strong, going 8-1.  The trends were murderous to gamblers last week, with home underdogs finished 1-4 against the spread, and touchdown-underdogs going winless, 0-3 against the number.  The NFC did bounce back with a 3-0 inter-conference record, but the Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest trends were no help at all.  I am going to hope that last week was more of an aberration and not the norm now, and continue to go with the analyzed trends.  There are 3 double-digit spreads and four home-underdogs in play, not to mention five inter-conference matchups.  I Tweeted the Colts’ victory last night, to get a solid start on my week.  Indy is a team that might need to be ridden, as the Chuckstrong factor might be the strongest motivational tactic yet.

PATRIOTS -11 over Bills

New England is 2-2 against the spread when favored by a touchdown or more, so they might be an exception to the trend.  The Bills also suck, and I have to start Ryan Fitzpatrick on A Rodg’s bye week, so sorry Buffalo I have doomed you.

VIKINGS +2 over Lions

For some reason, my guy has not had this line up all week.  Vegas has Detroit as a 2 point favorite on the road, which I think the line should be switched.  While the Lions did look good last week, they were playing the Jaguars who the Colts then demolished last night.  The line probably has something to do with the fact that the Vikings lost by ten to Seattle last week and Detroit beat the Seahawks by 4 the week before.  However, Minnesota played IN Seattle, where the Seahawks are a completely different team.  AP is starting to get in a groove and I think he has another monster day.

BENGALS +4 over Giants

Are the Giants really any good?  They are 6-3, but let’s look at their wins.  They beat Dallas by a finger, in a game that the Cowboys tried to hand to them.  It took a last second touchdown to beat the Redskins at home.  They had to come back from a double-digit deficit to beat the Browns.  It took a last second touchdown to beat the Bucs, also at home.  They blew out Carolina, the worst team in the NFC, and San Francisco on the road.  I see one quality win and then wins over sub-.500 teams.  They have two losses to sub-.500 teams as well (Cowboys and Eagles).  I think the 49ers’ game was more of a mental thing.  I’ll take the points.

BUCS -3 over Chargers

Tampa Bay won by double-digits for the second straight week last week, and their offense is firing on all cylinders.  The Bucs have averaged 36 points a game the last four games since their bye week, and still do not have a bad loss.  San Diego’s only wins over their last 7 weeks were both to Kansas City, the worst team in a decade.  Josh Freeman will probably have a monster game since I picked Fitzpatrick over him to start this week.

PANTHERS +4 over Broncos

Denver is 4-0 as favorites against the spread this year, but I think Carolina kind of figured out how to win last week.  They need to pound the ball as much as possible with their four different rushing threats.  The Broncos let the Bengals hang around last week and barely covered at the end.  So I think the Broncos win this one by a field goal, with Carolina keeping it close by controlling the clock/ball.

DOLPHINS -6 over Titans

When Tennessee loses, they get whooped.  Outside of a close loss to the Colts, in the Titans’ other five losses, they have lost by an average of over 25 points a game.  Do I think they will beat Miami on the road? No.  So I do not think they can cover.  Miami still has looked like a really good team since the second week of the season, with no losses by more than a field goal.

Raiders +8 over RAVENS

Since losing LaDarius Webb and Ray Lewis, the Ravens got absolutely annihilated by the Texans, and squeaked by the pitiful Browns with a misleading final score.  If Cleveland had any sort of Red Zone Offense, they win that game easily.  I do not know if Baltimore should be giving more than a touchdown against anyone.

SAINTS +3 over Falcons

I think that Atlanta will lose one of their next couple of games, and it will be the best thing for them (and my fantasy team with Matt Ryan/Roddy White).  Over their past six games, only one win was by more than a touchdown, and none of the teams have even a .500 record.  For as bad as I thought the Saints were at the beginning of the season, they have only one loss by a touchdown or more.  One of their losses was in overtime to the hapless Chiefs, which seems fluky.  Another was a one-point loss on the road to Green Bay.  Then they lost to RG3 in week 1, when their interim, interim coach was getting used to head coaching and no one knew how the Redskins would use Griffin.  Now the Saints are rolling, and I think they get the upset here.

Jets +7 over SEAHAWKS

I am going with the opposite theory here.  The Jets looked way worse than they are in their last game, and Seattle looked better than they are.  This pushed this line to a touchdown, which seems too high.  The Jets are also coming off of a bye week, so expect some sort of Tebow trick up their sleeves. 

EAGLES +1.5 over Cowboys

The Eagles opened as a 2.5 point favorite Monday morning before their loss to the Saints, and that line has now moved a full 4 points the other way.  These teams are both fatally flawed on the offensive line, forcing both quarterbacks into killer interceptions and fumbles.  The Cowboys have a better defense, but the Lincoln Financial Field gives Dallas fits.  I would say this is more of a Pick ‘Em game, so I will take the extra point and a half.

Rams +11.5 over 49ERS

This line just seems a few points too high.  The Rams have been playing progressively worse their last 5 games, while the 49ers were playing better.  Both teams are coming off of a bye, so I think it will help the Rams more.  St. Louis also is getting Danny Amendola back to help give Sam Bradford an underneath relief valve.  San Francisco will win, but the Rams have high potential for a backdoor cover.

BEARS -1 over Texans

I went against them last week and will not do it again.  This team is really good.  They may not have Charles Tillman, but their defense is pretty deep so I do not think it will have that big of an effect.  I think that the Chicago defense will smother the zone-blocking and running game of Houston, and Urlacher will be in beast-mode all night.

STEELERS -12.5 over Chiefs

Pittsburgh has won all three of its home games by an average of 11 points, and none of those teams were nearly as bad as Kansas City.  The Chiefs have still yet to lead a game in regulation, with their one win being by a field goal in overtime.  Pittsburgh is starting to pick up steam with three wins in a row against solid teams so maybe I was wrong about them.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Patriots -1, 49ers -1.5, Steelers -2.5

Others I Like:

Falcons/Saints Over 43, Bills/Patriots over 42, Chargers/Bucs Over 37; Saints +13, Seahawks/Jets Under 49, Raiders +18

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 6-7

Overall: 75-53-3

NFL Week 8 Picks

A quite solid 8-4-1 last week to bring my total for the season back around a 66% winning percentage.  I lost my first teaser option, but I am still sitting at 36-1 in that category.  The trends suffered last week, as the home-underdog went 0-3, but still a solid 24-14-1 for the season.  The touchdown-underdogs were 2-1-1, and there were no inter-conference matchups.  This week though, we have all three in abundance. 

A few other trends I have been keeping track of revolve around the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest, where the “smartest gamblers around” each my 5 picks a week, and whoever has the best record at the end gets a nice sum of money.  I do not have all of the numbers, but from the weeks I have calculated the data from, by taking the margin of people who pick one team against the other (i.e. the team favored by the bettors to cover) the record is 34-50-2.  If you take the top five margins overall, it is only 11-18-1 and the top 5 teams picked overall are 12-17-1.  Nothing conclusive yet, but they are definitely something to keep track of.  So I had the 7 point underdog Bucs last night, since Minnesota should not be favored by that much against anyone, and here are the rest:

 

Patriots -7 over RAMS

The Rams are the “home” team, but this game is being played in London, so there is no home team.  I see the Patriots coming back strong after the near-loss last week, and wanting to put on a show for the world to see.  Although this goes against two of the major trends and it will probably bite me in the ass, I think that New England is the second or third best AFC team and St. Louis is near the bottom in the NFC, so the trend could be misleading.

PACKERS -13 over Jaguars

This line is just so high, but at the same time who the hell is going to gain yards for the Jaguars?  Backup quarterback in, MJD out, the Packers on an absolute tear… I just cannot pick Jacksonville here.  Although, it is very likely that Green Bay mails this one in and gives up a backdoor cover, but I will take my chances with the two touchdowns.

Colts +3.5 over TITANS

This game is tough, because one of these teams is sneaky good, and will be in position to make the playoffs after winning this game.  The problem is, it is extremely difficult to tell which team that is.  The Colts have the best win, over the Packers, but the worst loss, to the Jaguars.  Then, the Titans, have barely squeaked by in all three of their wins, but none of the opponents have been that dominant this year.  In their losses they get blown out.  I will take the half point of value though, since Jacksonville has not won by more than 3 all season.

BROWNS +3 over Chargers

San Diego has had some bad luck the past couple of weeks, but they still do not have a quality win (unless the Titans romp in the game before..).  I am picking Cleveland strictly as a home underdog, which they are 2-1 this season in that situation.

Falcons +3 over EAGLES

Why are the Falcons getting 3 points in this game?  They are because Vegas knows the perception on the Eagles and can still get bets on them as favorites.  With the three points for home field, this line is saying these two teams are completely equal.  Except Atlanta is 6-0 and Philly is 3-3 with no wins by more than 2 points. 

LIONS -2.5 over Seahawks

Seattle is 1-3 on the road, with the win coming against a terrible Carolina team.  The Lions need this game badly after getting their butts kicked up and down the field Monday night.  I think Megatron is going to have a huge game against the Seahawks’ over-rated secondary.

Dolphins +2.5 over JETS

I actually changed this pick once I looked at the Dolphins’ schedule so far this season.  Since the week 1 blowout loss to Houston, Miami is 3-2 with both losses in OT.  While none of those opponents has been of the upper tier of quality teams, one loss was to the Jets.  It is difficult to beat an evenly matched team twice in a season.  Couple those factors with the fact that Miami is coming off a bye week while the Jets are coming off a late-afternoon emotional loss and I will buy the half point to 3 for the Dolphins.

Panthers +8 over BEARS

A short week of having everyone telling Chicago how good they are will keep this game closer than it should be.  I also think Cam Newton is due for a big game after his comments this week about throwing too much.  Chicago will still win, but I think the 8 points is a couple too high.

Redskins +4.5 over STEELERS

I just do not think Pittsburgh is that good.  They are one of the more inconsistent teams of the season, as they have alternated losses and wins, with this week being the turn for a loss.  On the other hand, the Redskins have been playing better and better each week as RGIII gets more accustomed to the speed of the game.  Their last 3 games they have looked quite good in beating a decent Vikings team, and giving away late leads to two division leaders in the Falcons and Giants.  I think the Redskins win this game outright, not to mention the NFC/AFC trend.

CHIEFS -1.5 over Raiders

Kansas City is coming off of a bye week while the Raiders are coming off an overtime win halfway across the country.  I think Brady Quinn will surprise some people and not be terrible… at least not as terrible as Carson Palmer.  What it comes down to is Jamaal Charles is playing better than Darren McFadden and Dwayne Bowe is playing better than any receiver on the Raiders. 

Giants +2 over COWBOYS

How many times has Eli lost in the Death Star?  Whose signature is on the wall?  Who has not gone unbeaten against the Giants in a season since 2003?  Who is down their starting running back?  Who has a gimpy backup running back?  Who is down their second best defensive player and quarterback of their defense?  This might get ugly.

Saints +6 over BRONCOS

New Orleans got extremely lucky to get out of Tampa last week with a win.  They were a Vincent Jackson heel then a stupid technicality from going into overtime, with all of the momentum with the Bucs.  However, the Broncos have been apt to get behind good offenses (Atlanta, Houston, New England) early and have to play catch-up.  Whether Denver gets down early, or the Saints have to come back late, I see Drew Brees at least covering the six points.

CARDINALS +7 over 49ers

A touchdown is an awful lot to give on the road, especially a team that can sometimes have trouble scoring.  The most telling thing about Arizona is they play up or down to their competition.  I think they beat the best four teams on their schedule, but lost to the worst three.  The Cardinals need a win badly to end their skid, and with the double trend of home underdog being given a touchdown, I like them to cover. 

 

Bonus College Pick:

KANSAS STATE -7.5 over Texas Tech

Lock it up, lock it down, stone cold lock of a pick, to the future BCS Title Game participants and guaranteed unanimous Heisman Trophy winner.

 

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Patriots +3, Saints/Broncos over 46, Falcons +13

 

Also Like:

Giants +8, Redskins +14.5, Dolphins +12.5, Jaguars/Packers over 35, 49ers/Cardinals under 49, Bears +2

 

This week: 1-0

 

Last week: 8-4-1

 

Season: 60-41-3

NFL Week 7 Picks

The two night games salvaged a .500 week, but I went undefeated in my Sunday bets including a huge money line parlay on the Lions and Giants.  I was getting 9 to 1 on it, and took the easy money to bounce back from the happiest three-hundo I ever lost on West Virginia the day before.  All of my teasers hit for the fourth week in a row.  The trends are abundantly clear now, as the underdog by a touchdown or more is 13-7-1 against the spread, the Home-dog is 24-11-1 against the number, and the NFC is 17-10.  So if you have an NFC team playing at home against an AFC team getting more than 6.5 points, I’d jump all over it. Sadly, that hypothetical is not in play as there are not any inter-conference matchups.  In fact, there’s only one spread of 7 or more, and only one home-dog getting a field goal or more.  So let’s get to this week’s games, and you can check my betting history that I had Seattle +8.5 last night.

Titans +3 over BILLS

I’m not sure if Buffalo should ever be favored by a field goal or more.  Honestly, who can definitively argue for either one of these teams to win this game?  I think I’ll take the fact that Chris Johnson has looked better and take the three points.

Cardinals +7 over VIKINGS

I think the Vikings will win, but the spread is just a little too high.  I also see a low-scoring game, which might be the obvious statement of the year when talking about a Kevin Kolb/Christian Ponder matchup.  On a sidenote, if Minnesota wins, how sneaky-good are they?  They will be sitting at 5-2 with three more easily winnable games ahead of them before the meat in their schedule.  The rest of the NFC better watch out as the Vikings might snag a wild-card spot.

COLTS -2 over Browns

There’s just no way that Cleveland can have two straight good performances right?  Andrew Luck at home is a beast, and I think the Colts can get some of that “Chuckstrong” mojo going again in the Oil Barrel.

TEXANS -6.5 over Ravens

The line is way higher than I would like, so I will probably stay away from it.  I know that Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb were key pieces to that defense, but it is not like the defense has been winning the games for Baltimore.  Flacco is having a solid year and Green Bay might have given the blue-print to beat Houston last week.  With that said, the Texans need a strong bounce back and I think the crowd will show up for this one.

RAMS +6 over Packers

The home-dog by almost a touchdown is the only reason for this pick.  The Packers are a better team, coming off a better performance, with the hottest quarterback on the planet.  Nothing about St. Louis covering makes sense.  Yet, every week in the NFL there are a few games where nothing makes sense, and I will take the points and the trends.

PANTHERS +2 over Cowboys

Me? Reverse-jinx? Never.  Dallas needs this game badly, which leads me to believe that they will blow it.  The Cowboys still have the second ranked defense in the league, but their special teams unit is leaving something left to be desired.  I think that Carolina will exploit that yet again, and Felix Jones will turn back into a pumpkin by about the second quarter.

Redskins +6.5 over GIANTS

I pick them at 6.5, but I will buy it to 7.  What do we know about the Giants?  They win big games impressively when given no shot; they lose to teams they have no business losing to; and in games that they should win handedly they fall behind and have to come back in the second half.  I will go with the third option as RG3 gets a lead only to have Eli drive the Giants for a last second field goal and win.

BUCS +2 over Saints

I am starting to buy into the theory that the Saints just are not that good.  Yeah Drew Brees will throw for another 5,000 yards, but he slings it 50-60 times a game.  A quick tangent: why has Drew Brees not been labled a “system-quarterback”??? He was nowhere near this level until getting into the system he is in now.  The Saints offense is the NFL’s version of the Mike Leach Air Raid, which leads me to another point: Geno Smith is the Heisman favorite… in the same offense that Graham Harrell, Sonny Cumbie, B.J. Symons and Kliff Kingsbury ran before, but put up similar if not better numbers.  Why is the “system quarterback” label not on Smith?  Finally, Doege just dominated Smith and WVU, by THIRTY-FIVE points, yet Smith is still a Heisman front-runner, Doege gets no mention, and Tech gets no respect, being ranked lower than WVU in every poll.  I understand not using just one game as a measure of a team’s overall composition, but when a team loses by THIRTY-FIVE how can that team still be better? (Rant over, soap box removed)

Jets +11 over PATRIOTS

I typed the Patriots name first and just could not give 11 in this crazy NFL season.  I got burned last week by a team (the Falcons) better than New England not covering over a team (the Raiders) worse than the Jets.  I just refuse to give 10 or more the rest of the season.

Jaguars +4 over RAIDERS

I have no feel for this game either, and will just take the 4 points.  Very likely a field goal either way, so there is a lot of value in that extra point.

BENGALS +2 over Steelers

Like the Saints, Pittsburgh is getting lines based on who they have been and not who they are now.  Their running game is a mess, their offensive line is terrible, their defensive starters are dropping like flies, and Ben Rapelisberger is due for an off-the-field incident any day now.  I do not believe in them which will certainly lead to a 6 game win streak in my face.

BEARS -6.5 over Lions

The Bears are good.  Really good.  I think this will be as eye-opening as their last Monday Night Football trouncing, and will send these two teams to where they shall be the rest of the season: the apex and the cellar.  Brandon Marshall should have a monster day against the Lions’ weak secondary and the Bears’ pressure will hassle the struggling Stafford all night.  The lack of a running game for the Lions will turn this into a blowout.

 

Bonus College Pick:

TCU +2 over Texas Tech (what even is a reverse jinx?)

 

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

New England -1, Bears +3.5, Packers/Rams over 36

 

I Also Like:

Bears/Lions over 37, Jets/Patriots over 37, Vikings/Cardinals under 50.5, Cardinals +16.5, Bengals +11.5

 

This Week: 1-0

 

Last Week: 7-7

 

Overall: 52-37-2

NFL Week 6 Picks

I posted a solid 10-4 week last week, that won myself quite a bit of money.  Once again, my teaser of the week hit, as well as all 9 teaser options total.  The home-underdog trend continued with the aforementioned going 5-2 against the spread.  The more noteworthy trend is the NFC vs. AFC as the NFL continued its dominance over the other conference, going 6-1 against the number.  Combined with the prevalent touchdown-underdog trend there are not any easy plays this week, but still some value.  I’m off to a bad start with the Steelers’ pick last night, so let’s try and turn it around:

Bengals -2 over BROWNS

I think that Cincinnati will be able to bounce back from the loss last week, and just cannot buy into Brandon Weeden. The Browns have hung close in most of their games but 2 points is too close.  If it moved to 3 my mind might change.

JETS -3 over Colts

The Colts rode the “Chuckstrong” mojo last week to beat the Packers, but I see a letdown against the Jets.  The Jets kept it close and covered against the Texans and although their offense is atrocious it cannot get any worse, right?  

Chiefs +5 over BUCS

I think this line was pushed to the “Vegas Zone” strictly because of the injury to Matt Cassel.  The question for the game is this: is Matt Cassel really that much better than Brady Quinn?  I do not believe so and think that Romeo Crennel will pull out all the stops for the upset on the road.

FALCONS -9.5 over Raiders

This will be a part of almost every gambler’s teaser for the weekend.  The number is extremely high, but if you can’t see Oakland winning, then you can’t expect that they can cover.  The Falcons are prone to the backdoor cover, but Carson Palmer is prone to throwing interceptions.

Cowboys +3.5 over RAVENS

If it is under 3 I would take Baltimore, but the Cowboys will come out firing off of their bye week.  With the brutal five-game stretch ahead of them, Dallas knows that getting the first win might make or break their season, so I think this will be close in the final minutes.  Now, will Romo’s receivers make the plays he needs them too?  People can say what they want about his five interceptions two weeks ago, but the number 1 and 2 league leaders in passes dropped (percentage wise) are Jason Witten and Dez Bryant respectively.

Lions +3.5 over EAGLES

Once again, this is Vegas pushing bets into the pile, as the number lends bettors to favor the Lions even with how badly they have looked of recent.  The Eagles have kept every game close and there is no reason to think it will change, so I will take the half-point.

Rams +4 over DOLPHINS

This is strictly an NFC over AFC pick, as St. Louis will miss former Red Raider Danny Amendola and Steven Jackson is still ailing.  The Dolphins defense has been stout, but they are due for a let-down game.  The number is too high given with how even these two teams are.

Patriots -3.5 over SEAHAWKS

Seattle has had some very good fortune from their special teams, to the replacement referees to the scheduling to get to where they are.  I think this game could turn into a blowout and Russell Wilson will get benched in favor of the most expensive backup in the league, Matt Flynn.  Home-field will not matter when Brady has built up a 3-touchdown lead on the home team.

CARDINALS -5 over Bills

Between the NFC/AFC trend and the fact that the Bills just suck, I think Arizona is a quality pick here.  Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably throw two or three interceptions, like he normally does, and with Patrick Peterson back there the chances of a pick-six are strong to quite strong.  Kevin Kolb did not look good last week in St. Louis, but he did not look horrible either.  Management of the game by Kolb will lead Arizona to a comfortable victory.

Giants +7 over 49ERS

The seven points is just too high for the best road/underdog team of the past few years.  Revenge will be on San Francisco’s minds, but there is also the factor that every time the masses are buying into the 49er’s they lay an egg like a few weeks ago against the Vikings.  Now while Minnesota might be better than everyone was giving them credit for, New York is still the defending champions and Eli will keep the game within a touchdown.

Vikings +2.5 over REDSKINS

Most places do not have a line out for this as no one really knows if RG3 will play or at what percentage, but I will go with the one I found.  Should Griffin not play, this line will probably flip the opposite, at which point I will still take Minnesota.  Kirk Cousins had a nice start with the long touchdown, but he is not ready to handle the situation himself.  Even if Griffin plays, Minnesota has looked absolutely solid since the 49er’s upset and Adrian Peterson is due for a monster game.

Packers +3.5 over TEXANS

An over-reaction line to last week’s upset by the Colts, I think these teams are just about equal, with a slight advantage to Green Bay.  So judging with a 2.5 home-field advantage, means you are getting about a point and a half of value on the Pack.  Then when you factor in the NFC/AFC trend, Green Bay becomes the right pick to make.  The line opened at 5 on Tuesday, but the sharps quickly jumped on it showing that the Packers are the smart money.

Broncos +1 over CHARGERS

Can Rivers put together three consecutive solid outings?  Or will Peyton playing on Monday Night Football become the smart bet again?  Drew Brees and Marques Colston torched the Chargers last Sunday night and I think that Denver’s receivers are markedly better.

 

 

College Bonus Pick: West Virginia -4 over TEXAS TECH

I was a Homer last week and it bit me in the ass… but when it came down to it I teased OU +4 so much I actually won money.  WVU is about to blow out the Red Raiders.  And the over cannot be high enough.

 

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Falcons +0.5, Cowboys +13.5, Cowboys/Ravens over 34

Also Like: Broncos/Chargers over 39, Jets +7, Bills Cardinals over 34, Giants +16.5, Patriots +6.5, Rams/Dolphins under 48

 

This week: 0-1

Last week: 10-4

Overall: 44-30-2

NFL Week 5 Picks

Another above .500 record last week at 8-6, but if you looked at any one of the EIGHT teaser options, then you won because they all hit.  I’ll be in Lubbock for the Tech/OU game so I’m just going to do a quick pick set today.

 

RAMS +3 over Cardinals

This line has moved from 1 just today, so I’ll take the value.

Falcons -3 over REDSKINS

Matt Ryan and Roddy White are on fire.

Eagles +3 over STEELERS

Philly has just been finding ways to win, and I’m still not sold on the Steelers.

COLTS +7 over Packers

I think Green Bay will win, but a home-dog giving a touchdown has too many trends to not take.

GIANTS -9 over Browns

I’ll tease this a whole bunch, but I do think the Giants play with a vengeance. 

Titans +6 over VIKINGS

Feels like a field goal-game, and Hasselbeck could rejuvenate the Titans; Chris Johnson already looked it last week.

Dolphins +3 over BENGALS

I just have a feeling about Miami in this one.

Ravens -6 over CHIEFS

If it gets to 7, I might sway the other way, but the Ravens have had 10 days to prepare for KC.

Seahawks +3 over PANTHERS

Feels like a close game, so I’ll take the points.

Bears -5 over JAGUARS

I have been saying Chicago is good since the pre-season, now others will follow.

Broncos +7 over PATRIOTS

I will take a late backdoor cover from Peyton.

49ERS -9.5 over Bills

If it gets to 10, I might swap, but the Bills defense is atrocious.

San Diego +3.5 over SAINTS

New Orleans just is not that good.  But a 3-1 team getting more than a field goal against an 0-4 team? I will take that to the bank.

JETS +8 over Texans

An overreaction line to last week.  The Jets will keep it close.

 

Bonus College Pick:

Tech +6 over OU

I am a homer, but I really think the Jones will be rockin’ for this one.

 

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

49ers +.5, Giants +1, Falcons +7

Also like: Falcons/Redskins over 40, Eagles/Steelers under 54, Ravens +4, Bears +5, Broncos/Patriots over 42, Chargers/Saints over 44

 

Last Week: 8-6

Overall: 34-25-2