NFL Week 7 Picks

The two night games salvaged a .500 week, but I went undefeated in my Sunday bets including a huge money line parlay on the Lions and Giants.  I was getting 9 to 1 on it, and took the easy money to bounce back from the happiest three-hundo I ever lost on West Virginia the day before.  All of my teasers hit for the fourth week in a row.  The trends are abundantly clear now, as the underdog by a touchdown or more is 13-7-1 against the spread, the Home-dog is 24-11-1 against the number, and the NFC is 17-10.  So if you have an NFC team playing at home against an AFC team getting more than 6.5 points, I’d jump all over it. Sadly, that hypothetical is not in play as there are not any inter-conference matchups.  In fact, there’s only one spread of 7 or more, and only one home-dog getting a field goal or more.  So let’s get to this week’s games, and you can check my betting history that I had Seattle +8.5 last night.

Titans +3 over BILLS

I’m not sure if Buffalo should ever be favored by a field goal or more.  Honestly, who can definitively argue for either one of these teams to win this game?  I think I’ll take the fact that Chris Johnson has looked better and take the three points.

Cardinals +7 over VIKINGS

I think the Vikings will win, but the spread is just a little too high.  I also see a low-scoring game, which might be the obvious statement of the year when talking about a Kevin Kolb/Christian Ponder matchup.  On a sidenote, if Minnesota wins, how sneaky-good are they?  They will be sitting at 5-2 with three more easily winnable games ahead of them before the meat in their schedule.  The rest of the NFC better watch out as the Vikings might snag a wild-card spot.

COLTS -2 over Browns

There’s just no way that Cleveland can have two straight good performances right?  Andrew Luck at home is a beast, and I think the Colts can get some of that “Chuckstrong” mojo going again in the Oil Barrel.

TEXANS -6.5 over Ravens

The line is way higher than I would like, so I will probably stay away from it.  I know that Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb were key pieces to that defense, but it is not like the defense has been winning the games for Baltimore.  Flacco is having a solid year and Green Bay might have given the blue-print to beat Houston last week.  With that said, the Texans need a strong bounce back and I think the crowd will show up for this one.

RAMS +6 over Packers

The home-dog by almost a touchdown is the only reason for this pick.  The Packers are a better team, coming off a better performance, with the hottest quarterback on the planet.  Nothing about St. Louis covering makes sense.  Yet, every week in the NFL there are a few games where nothing makes sense, and I will take the points and the trends.

PANTHERS +2 over Cowboys

Me? Reverse-jinx? Never.  Dallas needs this game badly, which leads me to believe that they will blow it.  The Cowboys still have the second ranked defense in the league, but their special teams unit is leaving something left to be desired.  I think that Carolina will exploit that yet again, and Felix Jones will turn back into a pumpkin by about the second quarter.

Redskins +6.5 over GIANTS

I pick them at 6.5, but I will buy it to 7.  What do we know about the Giants?  They win big games impressively when given no shot; they lose to teams they have no business losing to; and in games that they should win handedly they fall behind and have to come back in the second half.  I will go with the third option as RG3 gets a lead only to have Eli drive the Giants for a last second field goal and win.

BUCS +2 over Saints

I am starting to buy into the theory that the Saints just are not that good.  Yeah Drew Brees will throw for another 5,000 yards, but he slings it 50-60 times a game.  A quick tangent: why has Drew Brees not been labled a “system-quarterback”??? He was nowhere near this level until getting into the system he is in now.  The Saints offense is the NFL’s version of the Mike Leach Air Raid, which leads me to another point: Geno Smith is the Heisman favorite… in the same offense that Graham Harrell, Sonny Cumbie, B.J. Symons and Kliff Kingsbury ran before, but put up similar if not better numbers.  Why is the “system quarterback” label not on Smith?  Finally, Doege just dominated Smith and WVU, by THIRTY-FIVE points, yet Smith is still a Heisman front-runner, Doege gets no mention, and Tech gets no respect, being ranked lower than WVU in every poll.  I understand not using just one game as a measure of a team’s overall composition, but when a team loses by THIRTY-FIVE how can that team still be better? (Rant over, soap box removed)

Jets +11 over PATRIOTS

I typed the Patriots name first and just could not give 11 in this crazy NFL season.  I got burned last week by a team (the Falcons) better than New England not covering over a team (the Raiders) worse than the Jets.  I just refuse to give 10 or more the rest of the season.

Jaguars +4 over RAIDERS

I have no feel for this game either, and will just take the 4 points.  Very likely a field goal either way, so there is a lot of value in that extra point.

BENGALS +2 over Steelers

Like the Saints, Pittsburgh is getting lines based on who they have been and not who they are now.  Their running game is a mess, their offensive line is terrible, their defensive starters are dropping like flies, and Ben Rapelisberger is due for an off-the-field incident any day now.  I do not believe in them which will certainly lead to a 6 game win streak in my face.

BEARS -6.5 over Lions

The Bears are good.  Really good.  I think this will be as eye-opening as their last Monday Night Football trouncing, and will send these two teams to where they shall be the rest of the season: the apex and the cellar.  Brandon Marshall should have a monster day against the Lions’ weak secondary and the Bears’ pressure will hassle the struggling Stafford all night.  The lack of a running game for the Lions will turn this into a blowout.

 

Bonus College Pick:

TCU +2 over Texas Tech (what even is a reverse jinx?)

 

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

New England -1, Bears +3.5, Packers/Rams over 36

 

I Also Like:

Bears/Lions over 37, Jets/Patriots over 37, Vikings/Cardinals under 50.5, Cardinals +16.5, Bengals +11.5

 

This Week: 1-0

 

Last Week: 7-7

 

Overall: 52-37-2