NFL Week 6 Picks

I posted a solid 10-4 week last week, that won myself quite a bit of money.  Once again, my teaser of the week hit, as well as all 9 teaser options total.  The home-underdog trend continued with the aforementioned going 5-2 against the spread.  The more noteworthy trend is the NFC vs. AFC as the NFL continued its dominance over the other conference, going 6-1 against the number.  Combined with the prevalent touchdown-underdog trend there are not any easy plays this week, but still some value.  I’m off to a bad start with the Steelers’ pick last night, so let’s try and turn it around:

Bengals -2 over BROWNS

I think that Cincinnati will be able to bounce back from the loss last week, and just cannot buy into Brandon Weeden. The Browns have hung close in most of their games but 2 points is too close.  If it moved to 3 my mind might change.

JETS -3 over Colts

The Colts rode the “Chuckstrong” mojo last week to beat the Packers, but I see a letdown against the Jets.  The Jets kept it close and covered against the Texans and although their offense is atrocious it cannot get any worse, right?  

Chiefs +5 over BUCS

I think this line was pushed to the “Vegas Zone” strictly because of the injury to Matt Cassel.  The question for the game is this: is Matt Cassel really that much better than Brady Quinn?  I do not believe so and think that Romeo Crennel will pull out all the stops for the upset on the road.

FALCONS -9.5 over Raiders

This will be a part of almost every gambler’s teaser for the weekend.  The number is extremely high, but if you can’t see Oakland winning, then you can’t expect that they can cover.  The Falcons are prone to the backdoor cover, but Carson Palmer is prone to throwing interceptions.

Cowboys +3.5 over RAVENS

If it is under 3 I would take Baltimore, but the Cowboys will come out firing off of their bye week.  With the brutal five-game stretch ahead of them, Dallas knows that getting the first win might make or break their season, so I think this will be close in the final minutes.  Now, will Romo’s receivers make the plays he needs them too?  People can say what they want about his five interceptions two weeks ago, but the number 1 and 2 league leaders in passes dropped (percentage wise) are Jason Witten and Dez Bryant respectively.

Lions +3.5 over EAGLES

Once again, this is Vegas pushing bets into the pile, as the number lends bettors to favor the Lions even with how badly they have looked of recent.  The Eagles have kept every game close and there is no reason to think it will change, so I will take the half-point.

Rams +4 over DOLPHINS

This is strictly an NFC over AFC pick, as St. Louis will miss former Red Raider Danny Amendola and Steven Jackson is still ailing.  The Dolphins defense has been stout, but they are due for a let-down game.  The number is too high given with how even these two teams are.

Patriots -3.5 over SEAHAWKS

Seattle has had some very good fortune from their special teams, to the replacement referees to the scheduling to get to where they are.  I think this game could turn into a blowout and Russell Wilson will get benched in favor of the most expensive backup in the league, Matt Flynn.  Home-field will not matter when Brady has built up a 3-touchdown lead on the home team.

CARDINALS -5 over Bills

Between the NFC/AFC trend and the fact that the Bills just suck, I think Arizona is a quality pick here.  Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably throw two or three interceptions, like he normally does, and with Patrick Peterson back there the chances of a pick-six are strong to quite strong.  Kevin Kolb did not look good last week in St. Louis, but he did not look horrible either.  Management of the game by Kolb will lead Arizona to a comfortable victory.

Giants +7 over 49ERS

The seven points is just too high for the best road/underdog team of the past few years.  Revenge will be on San Francisco’s minds, but there is also the factor that every time the masses are buying into the 49er’s they lay an egg like a few weeks ago against the Vikings.  Now while Minnesota might be better than everyone was giving them credit for, New York is still the defending champions and Eli will keep the game within a touchdown.

Vikings +2.5 over REDSKINS

Most places do not have a line out for this as no one really knows if RG3 will play or at what percentage, but I will go with the one I found.  Should Griffin not play, this line will probably flip the opposite, at which point I will still take Minnesota.  Kirk Cousins had a nice start with the long touchdown, but he is not ready to handle the situation himself.  Even if Griffin plays, Minnesota has looked absolutely solid since the 49er’s upset and Adrian Peterson is due for a monster game.

Packers +3.5 over TEXANS

An over-reaction line to last week’s upset by the Colts, I think these teams are just about equal, with a slight advantage to Green Bay.  So judging with a 2.5 home-field advantage, means you are getting about a point and a half of value on the Pack.  Then when you factor in the NFC/AFC trend, Green Bay becomes the right pick to make.  The line opened at 5 on Tuesday, but the sharps quickly jumped on it showing that the Packers are the smart money.

Broncos +1 over CHARGERS

Can Rivers put together three consecutive solid outings?  Or will Peyton playing on Monday Night Football become the smart bet again?  Drew Brees and Marques Colston torched the Chargers last Sunday night and I think that Denver’s receivers are markedly better.

 

 

College Bonus Pick: West Virginia -4 over TEXAS TECH

I was a Homer last week and it bit me in the ass… but when it came down to it I teased OU +4 so much I actually won money.  WVU is about to blow out the Red Raiders.  And the over cannot be high enough.

 

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Falcons +0.5, Cowboys +13.5, Cowboys/Ravens over 34

Also Like: Broncos/Chargers over 39, Jets +7, Bills Cardinals over 34, Giants +16.5, Patriots +6.5, Rams/Dolphins under 48

 

This week: 0-1

Last week: 10-4

Overall: 44-30-2