NFL Week 8 Picks

A quite solid 8-4-1 last week to bring my total for the season back around a 66% winning percentage.  I lost my first teaser option, but I am still sitting at 36-1 in that category.  The trends suffered last week, as the home-underdog went 0-3, but still a solid 24-14-1 for the season.  The touchdown-underdogs were 2-1-1, and there were no inter-conference matchups.  This week though, we have all three in abundance. 

A few other trends I have been keeping track of revolve around the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest, where the “smartest gamblers around” each my 5 picks a week, and whoever has the best record at the end gets a nice sum of money.  I do not have all of the numbers, but from the weeks I have calculated the data from, by taking the margin of people who pick one team against the other (i.e. the team favored by the bettors to cover) the record is 34-50-2.  If you take the top five margins overall, it is only 11-18-1 and the top 5 teams picked overall are 12-17-1.  Nothing conclusive yet, but they are definitely something to keep track of.  So I had the 7 point underdog Bucs last night, since Minnesota should not be favored by that much against anyone, and here are the rest:

 

Patriots -7 over RAMS

The Rams are the “home” team, but this game is being played in London, so there is no home team.  I see the Patriots coming back strong after the near-loss last week, and wanting to put on a show for the world to see.  Although this goes against two of the major trends and it will probably bite me in the ass, I think that New England is the second or third best AFC team and St. Louis is near the bottom in the NFC, so the trend could be misleading.

PACKERS -13 over Jaguars

This line is just so high, but at the same time who the hell is going to gain yards for the Jaguars?  Backup quarterback in, MJD out, the Packers on an absolute tear… I just cannot pick Jacksonville here.  Although, it is very likely that Green Bay mails this one in and gives up a backdoor cover, but I will take my chances with the two touchdowns.

Colts +3.5 over TITANS

This game is tough, because one of these teams is sneaky good, and will be in position to make the playoffs after winning this game.  The problem is, it is extremely difficult to tell which team that is.  The Colts have the best win, over the Packers, but the worst loss, to the Jaguars.  Then, the Titans, have barely squeaked by in all three of their wins, but none of the opponents have been that dominant this year.  In their losses they get blown out.  I will take the half point of value though, since Jacksonville has not won by more than 3 all season.

BROWNS +3 over Chargers

San Diego has had some bad luck the past couple of weeks, but they still do not have a quality win (unless the Titans romp in the game before..).  I am picking Cleveland strictly as a home underdog, which they are 2-1 this season in that situation.

Falcons +3 over EAGLES

Why are the Falcons getting 3 points in this game?  They are because Vegas knows the perception on the Eagles and can still get bets on them as favorites.  With the three points for home field, this line is saying these two teams are completely equal.  Except Atlanta is 6-0 and Philly is 3-3 with no wins by more than 2 points. 

LIONS -2.5 over Seahawks

Seattle is 1-3 on the road, with the win coming against a terrible Carolina team.  The Lions need this game badly after getting their butts kicked up and down the field Monday night.  I think Megatron is going to have a huge game against the Seahawks’ over-rated secondary.

Dolphins +2.5 over JETS

I actually changed this pick once I looked at the Dolphins’ schedule so far this season.  Since the week 1 blowout loss to Houston, Miami is 3-2 with both losses in OT.  While none of those opponents has been of the upper tier of quality teams, one loss was to the Jets.  It is difficult to beat an evenly matched team twice in a season.  Couple those factors with the fact that Miami is coming off a bye week while the Jets are coming off a late-afternoon emotional loss and I will buy the half point to 3 for the Dolphins.

Panthers +8 over BEARS

A short week of having everyone telling Chicago how good they are will keep this game closer than it should be.  I also think Cam Newton is due for a big game after his comments this week about throwing too much.  Chicago will still win, but I think the 8 points is a couple too high.

Redskins +4.5 over STEELERS

I just do not think Pittsburgh is that good.  They are one of the more inconsistent teams of the season, as they have alternated losses and wins, with this week being the turn for a loss.  On the other hand, the Redskins have been playing better and better each week as RGIII gets more accustomed to the speed of the game.  Their last 3 games they have looked quite good in beating a decent Vikings team, and giving away late leads to two division leaders in the Falcons and Giants.  I think the Redskins win this game outright, not to mention the NFC/AFC trend.

CHIEFS -1.5 over Raiders

Kansas City is coming off of a bye week while the Raiders are coming off an overtime win halfway across the country.  I think Brady Quinn will surprise some people and not be terrible… at least not as terrible as Carson Palmer.  What it comes down to is Jamaal Charles is playing better than Darren McFadden and Dwayne Bowe is playing better than any receiver on the Raiders. 

Giants +2 over COWBOYS

How many times has Eli lost in the Death Star?  Whose signature is on the wall?  Who has not gone unbeaten against the Giants in a season since 2003?  Who is down their starting running back?  Who has a gimpy backup running back?  Who is down their second best defensive player and quarterback of their defense?  This might get ugly.

Saints +6 over BRONCOS

New Orleans got extremely lucky to get out of Tampa last week with a win.  They were a Vincent Jackson heel then a stupid technicality from going into overtime, with all of the momentum with the Bucs.  However, the Broncos have been apt to get behind good offenses (Atlanta, Houston, New England) early and have to play catch-up.  Whether Denver gets down early, or the Saints have to come back late, I see Drew Brees at least covering the six points.

CARDINALS +7 over 49ers

A touchdown is an awful lot to give on the road, especially a team that can sometimes have trouble scoring.  The most telling thing about Arizona is they play up or down to their competition.  I think they beat the best four teams on their schedule, but lost to the worst three.  The Cardinals need a win badly to end their skid, and with the double trend of home underdog being given a touchdown, I like them to cover. 

 

Bonus College Pick:

KANSAS STATE -7.5 over Texas Tech

Lock it up, lock it down, stone cold lock of a pick, to the future BCS Title Game participants and guaranteed unanimous Heisman Trophy winner.

 

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Patriots +3, Saints/Broncos over 46, Falcons +13

 

Also Like:

Giants +8, Redskins +14.5, Dolphins +12.5, Jaguars/Packers over 35, 49ers/Cardinals under 49, Bears +2

 

This week: 1-0

 

Last week: 8-4-1

 

Season: 60-41-3