NFL Week 15 Picks

Once again, luck was not on my favor with my picks last week.  Even though my total selections went 9-7 for a profitable weekend, my best bets were a menial 2-4.  Meaning if there were $100 bets on each game, I was -240 in games I bet, and +470 in games I picked but did not bet.  Ultimate fail.  On the Cowboys’ front, the knee-jerk reactions of Cowboys Nation continue as now they are doomed to fail to make the playoffs in the majority’s eyes.  Yet, all that Dallas has to do is beat a Green Bay team at home, starting their backup quarterback, a Washington team with an atrocious home field advantage as of late with their backup quarterback, and Philadelphia at home.  Does that really sound so gloom and doom? 

                What’s even more ignorant about some analysts and fans is their insistence to blame someone for individual games.  Some people even went as far to blame Romo for their performance on Monday… Because you know he plays defense and gave up 45 points and failed to force a punt.  The reason the game went the way it did was the dropped interceptions.  There were two blatant drops and one overturned by a penalty.  If Dallas gets just two of those (which all three led to touchdowns) then it is a completely different game.  That is what Kiffin has made this defense: turnover or bust.  They just do not have the talent to line up and stop good offenses (Denver, New Orleans, Chicago) so they have to try and force as many turnovers as possible. 

                Where does that leave Dallas this week?  Well if Rodgers plays, they better hope he is rusty because the last time he played Dallas as well as the last time he played in this stadium (Super Bowl XLV) he was pinpoint and magnificent.  If Rodgers does not play, the Cowboys have actually been bend but don’t break against the middle to lower tier of quarterbacks, giving up just 73 points (14.6 a game) to the likes of Bradford, Griffin, Foles/Barkley, Ponder and McGloin).

                The biggest factor that gets over-looked is how good the Dallas offense has been at home.  Yes, I know that defensive stops/touchdowns skew the totals, but the Cowboys are averaging 34 points a game at home.  Can a Matt Flynn-led Green Bay team score more than 30 against the Cowboys’ defense, as depleted with injuries and leaky as it has been? That is the unknown and what will leave this game to the TLF rather than a blowout.

Chargers +10.5 over BRONCOS

I Tweeted this one out since there was not a home-dog on Thursday, I went with the double-digit underdog trend which is hitting about 62% on the season.

Redskins +7 over FALCONS

How much of a downgrade is it really from Griffin to Cousins? By my rankings and spread-guessing, I had it as a 4-point line from analysis on the season so far.  Since the only difference will be Cousins for Griffin, I think the rally-factor of the rest of the team around Cousins outweighs the slight downgrade in talent. 

BUCCANEERS +6 over 49ers

The first of the NINE home-dogs this week, Tampa Bay has been quietly good the past few weeks.  Sean Glennon might actually be a competent quarterback and the defense has finally jelled.  Outside of playing the terrible Redskins’ defense, Kaepernick has been atrocious on the road.  He has not broken 200 yards and has just 5 touchdowns versus 4 interceptions in the five games.  I will take the Bucs to keep it close.

TITANS +3 over Cardinals

Carson Palmer at home versus Carson Palmer on the road is a big difference.  The Titans have been decent recently and the loss of the Honey Badger will leave an opening for Delanie Walker to have a huge game.

RAMS +7 over Saints

Somehow I squeaked out last week (by 80 points) and now have gotten lucky that my semifinal opponent has Peyton/Demaryius who had subpar games, but my TLF cannot continue.  Brees and Graham are due for a terrible game and the St. Louis pass rush will be the difference.  Nope, no reverse jinxes here.

GIANTS +7 over Seahawks

As much as I hate it, I have to stick to the trends.  A west coast team playing on the east coast early game; home underdog; touchdown underdog; LVH SuperContest; public backing; every trend is going against the Seahawks so I will follow it.

BROWNS PK over Bears

I had already typed in the Bears winning, and then I remembered that their defense is awful, Cleveland has Josh Gordon, and the Browns defense is exponentially better than Dallas’.  Jay Cutler coming back could be the worst thing to happen to this Chicago team.

Texans +7 over COLTS

Indianapolis has not looked good in weeks.  They especially have been starting slow in the first halves, meaning covering by more than a touchdown is a long shot.  Houston has been competitive the past couple of weeks and will face less booing on the road than at home.

Bills -2 over JAGUARS

Why in the world is Buffalo favored on the road, over the team with the longest win streak in the AFC?  Why is the public all of a sudden backing Jacksonville, the least backed team all year, with 73% of their bets?  Why is the line the opposite way by the Vegas Power Poll by over a field goal?  Ladies and gentlemen, your “Las Vegas Always Wins” Sucker Bet of the Week!

DOLPHINS +3 over Patriots

This line slipped to 3 this morning and I am jumping all over that.  New England has not looked very good the past couple of weeks against non-contenders Cleveland and Houston, now they have a team in playoff positioning and there is no Rob Gronkowski.  Ryan Tannehill has even turned himself into a viable QB2 in fantasy and the Dolphins finally finish the job against New England.

VIKINGS +5 over Eagles

EEEEEEEEEEEvvvvveerrrryyyyyyybody is on Philly in this one.  A whopping 88% (probably top 3 all season) are backing the Eagles.  Yet, the line has only moved from 4.5 to 5.  What gives?  That means that the sharps are waiting to place their sizable bets on Minnesota whenever the line gets high enough.  Everything I said about Philadelphia last week still remains true: you cannot judge a team based on a game in a complete blizzard. 

Jets +11 over PANTHERS

Carolina just is not a blowout team.  The play smothering defense and let Cam Newton do just enough to not screw up the win.  Geno Smith on the road sounds like an abysmal thing to put your money on, but betting on Carolina to win by double digits is just as bad, so I’ll go with the trend of double digit-dogs.

RAIDERS +4.5 over Chiefs

You know that stat about 88% of the money being on Philly?  Well NINETY PERCENT of money for this game is on Kansas City.  I just cannot bring myself to pick against Vegas giving 9-1 odds.  That is all of the analysis I need for this game.

Packers +7.5 over COWBOYS

Since I started writing this, Rodgers has been ruled out.  Yes, I think the Matt Flynn-led Packers can put up 30 on this defense.  No Sean Lee, no Bruce Carter, no Morris Claiborne, a shell of DeMarcus Ware… Flynn will rejuvenate the Packers like it’s 2011 and lead them to the upset of the week.

STEELERS +3 over Bengals

This may end up being the second sucker bet of the week, but I just cannot trust Andy Dalton on the road, at night, in Pittsburgh. 

Ravens +6 over LIONS

Could Baltimore be recreating their run from last season?  At this point, they were right about in the same spot and Joe Flacco started getting hot.  We will see Monday, and I’m sure Reggie Bush will not play and Calvin Johnson will have a dreadful game to knock out three more of my semifinal fantasy teams.

(Best bets will be tweeted after final lines Sunday morning)

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Panthers -1, Packers +17, Packers/Cowboys OVER whatever the total ends up as.

Others I Like:

Bills +8, Redskins +17, 49ers/Buccaneers UNDER 53, Eagles/Vikings OVER 40, Browns +10, Rams/Saints OVER 37

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 9-7

Overall: 113-93-6

NFL Week 14 Picks

Another solid week to stretch me to a profit at almost 20 games above .500, so I’m hitting at a 55% clip.  Stupidly, I’ve only been playing select games so I have not been taking advantage of my hot streak.  Of course, the simple solution would be to bet every single game, but I think I am due for a regression week back toward the middle.  Betting all 16 games a week is too risky, so I will not focus more on the best bets that I see of the slate.

JAGUARS +3 over Texans

Thursday night home-dogs are an amazing 6-1, including winning the last 6.  It has become the biggest lock of the season.

REDSKINS +4 over Chiefs

Another home underdog, and the Chiefs are reeling.  RG3 claims that they are not a 10-loss team so he has the chance to put his money where his mouth is.

Vikings +7 over RAVENS

I am still not sold on this Baltimore team.  They got by on the scrape of their teeth last week and the Vikings have now figured out that Adrian Peterson is really good when he gets 30+ carries.  Moreover, in my big-money fantasy league playoffs in which I am the first seed, I am destined to lose to AP in the first round.

Browns +10.5 over PATRIOTS

New England damn near lost to a horrible Texans team and the Browns have actually been halfway decent with Jason Campbell in at quarterback.  Josh Gordon is on fire, so I do not even think Aqib Talib can slow him down that much.

Jets+3 over RAIDERS

This Jets team is the epitome of the opposite theory.  They looked horrible last week, so I expect them to bounce back and play well this week.  The Raiders actually looked good last week considering they were on the road for a short week against a possible playoff team.  I.e. they will look terrible this week.

Colts +7 over BENGALS

I might be falling for the Vegas sucker bet of the week, but I just do not see how a division leader can be favored a touchdown over another division leader with the same record.  Moreover, Cincinnati is down some of their best defensive players and Andrew Luck is due for a huge game.

Lions +3.5 over EAGLES

I might be more interested in the total in this game (54) as the frigid weather and natural icy-grass will slow down Bush/McCoy.  Anyway, the Eagles were completely bailed out by every big 4^th quarter call going their way, taking away a touchdown and interception from Arizona and helping Philly get a score.  Let’s look at who the Eagles have actually beaten: The Redskins which RG3 has not been anywhere near as good as last year; Eli and the Giants when he was in full suck mode of 0-6; rookie backup Sean Glennon and Tampa Bay; rookie backup Matt McGloin and the Raiders; rookie backup Scott Tolzien and the Packers; then they get bailed out against Arizona when Carson Palmer played like bad Carson Palmer.  I think they will be exposed this week.

Dolphins +3.5 over STEELERS

I thought for sure this line would be flipped the other way, so I feel like there is a touchdown worth of value here.  The Dolphins could win this game and have the inside track to the last wild card with two easier games against the Bills/Jets left.

Bills +3.5 over BUCCANEERS

After last week’s pitiful performance I just cannot take Tampa Bay.  It feels like a field goal-game, so I might be getting the half point of value for free.

Titans +13 over BRONCOS

Denver’s defense has not lived up to their offense this season and it will cost them in the playoffs.  The defense let New England back in and win the game, and then nearly did the same thing with Kansas City last week.  It will be another cold day, so Peyton won’t get to 50, meaning I think the Titans can keep it close enough.

CARDINALS -5 over Rams

This has got to be the ultimate toss-up bet of the season.  It is in the “Vegas Zone” between 4 and 6, the public is split completely even 50/50 on picking it, and both are in the middle of the pack in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest pool.  I think I will go with Arizona, as Carson Palmer has been good Carson at home more often than not.

Giants +3.5 over CHARGERS

70% of the country betting is taking San Diego, and the LVH SuperContest’s biggest consensus this week was San Diego over the Giants.  What’s that?  Nobody believes in the Giants to win?  They will most definitely win.  Upset of the week.

Seahawks +3 over 49ERS

Seattle has looked quite dominant of late, while San Francisco has only looked good against the hapless Redskins.  People are making it to be a marquee matchup, but Seattle will make it look like a blowout.

Falcons +3 over PACKERS

Can Matt Ryan put together back-to-back solid games?  I am not sure he will have to with Matt Flynn behind center for the Packers.  Not much info to go on since the line really just got settled this morning, so I will take the dog.

Panthers +4 over SAINTS

In my upset of the week part deux, I think the Panthers manhandle the Saints.  Not because of any betting trend, or football analysis.   No, the Saints will play terrible because I am the least lucky person with the TLF and in my big-money league playoffs, I have Brees and Jimmy Graham.  I am sorry to anyone else who has these two in the playoffs as well I have screwed you over.

BEARS +2 over Cowboys

The other home dog of the weekend, the Bears demolished Dallas last season.  There is also something at work with Chicago that no one will talk about… they are a better offense with Josh McCown than with Jay Cutler.  He leads the league in QBR (a stat I think is dumb, over-skewed toward the running quarterback and does not factor in actual passing numbers enough for the passing position, nonetheless he is leading it) and McCown utilizes his options better.  Cutler tended to get locked into Marshall, forcing interceptions and missing out on big plays.  McCown has made Alshon Jeffrey a fantasy superstar and given Matt Forte his best season yet.

Top Picks of the Week:

This is where I will point out the games I am actually going to bet on.

Redskins +4, Colts +7, Dolphins +3.5, Giants +3.5, Seahawks +3, Panthers +4

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Seahawks +13, Panthers +14, Lions/Eagles UNDER 65

Others I Like:

Giants +13.5, Chiefs/Redskins UNDER 55, Broncos/Titans OVER 39, Redskins +14, Colts +17, Bengals/Colts UNDER 56

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 9-7

Overall: 105-86-6

NFL Week 13 Picks

So with it being Thanksgiving Weekend, and me having way too much NCAA to catch up with on my Xbox, I’m just going to fly through the weekly picks.  I had a decent week at 8-6, but of the ones I actually wagered on, I picked poorly.  Here’s to a bounce back over some turkey!

Packers +7 over LIONS

Matt Flynn has torn this defense apart before and can do it again.

Raiders +10 over COWBOYS

This line just feels like it has gotten way too high.

RAVENS -2.5 over Steelers

I have no idea about this game, so I’ll take the home team.

Titans +4 over COLTS

Maybe the Colts just are not as good as originally though; we will know after Sunday.

CHIEFS +6 over Broncos

It’s not exactly going to be warm in Kansas City Sunday, and the Chiefs’ defense woes have been overblown.

BROWNS -6.5 over Jaguars

Jacksonville remembers that they should be tanking this week.

PANTHERS -8 over Buccaneers

Tampa Bay also remembers it should be pointed towards the tank squad.

VIKINGS -1 over Bears

This line moved only 2 points once Cutler was confirmed out… does no one realize that Adrian Peterson will go crazy on that awful run defense?

EAGLES -3 over Cardinals

I’ll take Carson Palmer giving it away on the road in the cold.

JETS -2 over Dolphins

The Jets are deceivingly good at home.

Falcons +3.5 over BILLS

No real home field advantage since it is in Toronto, so I think Atlanta keeps it close.

49ERS -7 over Rams

The Rams can run on most teams, but I will guess they cannot against San Francisco.

TEXANS +8 over Patriots

Post-Denver letdown.

Bengals PK over CHARGERS

Sucker bet of the week: how is San Diego not favored, at home, over a struggling Bengals’ team?

REDSKINS +1 over Giants

This line moved towards the Giants after the Redskins’ loss.  Newsflash: New York’s defense is not as good as San Francisco’s.

SEAHAWKS -4 over Saints

I’ll take the 12^th man over Drew Brees at night in a cold, windy stadium.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Lions/Packers OVER 39, Raiders +20, Chiefs +16

Others I Like:

49ers +3, Redskins +11, Ravens/Steelers UNDER 52, Falcons +13.5,  Browns +3.5, Packers +17

Last Week: 8-6

Overall: 95-79-6

The Timely Luck Factor and NFL Week 12 Picks

So I think I have come to a revelation this week: winning an NFL game comes down to the same critical factor as fantasy football.  Sadly, the critical factor in question is timely luck.  I consider myself a pretty good fantasy football player; I have six teams and four of them have the most points in the league (by wide margins) and my other two have dealt with a lot of injuries, but are still middle of the pack.  Yet, I know that the odds of me even winning one of these leagues is nothing more than a coin flip, let alone winning all four where I have the best team.  Yes, the team that scores the most points is the best team in fantasy football, where the sole purpose is scoring points.  However, the “best team” wins the league less than half of the time.  Whether it’s bad seeding from tough matchups in the regular season, or having your one bad week during the first round of the playoffs, the best team is completely vulnerable.

            Now in the NFL, it is impossible to qualify a single team as “the best”, because there are so many other factors than gaining points by yards/touchdowns/etc.  Nevertheless, one can single down the league to a group of 5 or so (Bill Simmons uses 8, but I still feel like he did not have the Ravens in that 8 last year, or the Giants either time they won) teams that he or she would then think has the “best” within it.  Yet who would have put Baltimore in their top-5 at the beginning of the playoffs last year?  Hell, after the Super Bowl was over, I still would not have taken the Ravens if the same playoff situation was to start over.  So how did they win?  Rahim Moore making the biggest mistake a defensive back can make, Steven Ridley getting knocked out and fumbling, Colin Kaepernick’s pumpkin hitting midnight (I firmly believe that San Francisco wins the Super Bowl with Alex Smith at quarterback, but getting past Green Bay would have been another story…), and a questionable no-call in the end zone that would have given the 49ers the lead late in the game.  It took an obscene amount of luck at just the exact right time for them to win it all. 

            This is exactly how it is in fantasy football: you don’t have to have your best week points-wise to win, just better than the other guy.  Now the big difference is in fantasy, your opponent has no bearing on whether you score or not (Team Defense against quarterback/running back/receiver withstanding).  As I just referenced though, the Ravens benefitted from having an opponent to get lucky on their own bad misfortunes, just as a fantasy team can benefit from its opponent’s star running back going down in the first quarter.  It is all about the luck of the matchup.

            How did the NFL come to this?  Since the salary cap was instituted and the Cowboys/49ers/Bills dominance of the early to mid-90’s ended, the NFL has become the epitome of parity.  The expansion of teams and therefore talent, as well as the technological advances regarding scouting and injury recovery have made it even more of a level playing field.  The only team to seem to buck the trend was New England, but lest you forget, they won two Super Bowls on long field goals, another playoff game to start the run on a questionable call followed by a field goal in a blizzard, and they were blatantly cheating  for who knows how long.  The same factors that equaled the playing field in real football, have done the same to fantasy.  The internet and thousands of fantasy football experts on it have made getting advanced information easily and quickly accessible.  This means with just 20 minutes worth of browsing, someone equals the research done for hours upon hours of his opponent.

            There is no real answer to getting around the Timely Luck Factor (TLF).  I developed a dynamic value-based drafting system that has led to by far the most complete and high-scoring teams in the five leagues that used snake drafts (the one not in first place saw my top FOUR picks, Steven Jackson, Ray Rice, Randall Cobb, and DeMarco Murray all miss serious time or play hurt in Rice’s case but is now on its way back up).  Still, I doubt any one of the five runs away with a championship.  There is just no way to predict if the team you happen to be playing in the playoffs will have the best week of his season that week.  Just as there is no way to predict if the opposing team in the NFL will bring you timely luck with their own calamity. 

So one can say that the Cowboys are, literally, a few plays away from being 9-1: the offense running a better play at the goal line against KC in a one-point loss, Terrance Williams fumbling at the goal line, the defense stopping Peyton Manning at all in a 3-point loss, and Tyron Smith not holding to stop the clock in a 1-point loss.  Yet, they are also just as easily close to being 1-9: Eli throwing a pick-six late, Dwayne Harris taking advantage of Washington slacking on special teams, Nick Foles throwing an interception in the end zone, and Christian Ponder fumbling in his own end zone.  So eight plays or so, can take a team from 9-1 to 1-9 and anywhere in between.  Who on earth can honestly predict what this team will do next?  This team is the most polarizing and extreme group in the league.  No other team has such a wide range of variability.  They could go 5-11 or 11-5 and win the Super Bowl.  Nothing will surprise me anymore.  I am going to stop trying to find reasoning behind Dallas, and try to enjoy the TLF that is sure to swing back their way soon after losing it for 18 years.

LIONS -6.5 over Buccaneers

The Lions gave one away last week and I think they bounce back strongly.  The only thing making me want to pick Tampa, is I literally had the Add/Drop ready to go, just needed to hit confirm to start Mike Glennon over Matt Ryan as my Russell Wilson replacement.  After last night, I’m sure I made the wrong call and Glennon will go off.

TEXANS-10 over Jaguars

Why would Vegas make the same mistake two weeks in a row about Houston being more than a touchdown favorite?  Because Vegas knows and Vegas always wins.  I think I may have been wrong on every single Jaguars’ game this season though, so do not trust me on this one.

Vikings +4.5 over PACKERS

Both teams got blown out last weekend, so we can’t go theory of opposites.  Christian Ponder on the road seems equal to third stringer at home.  Both teams are relying more on the run, so the cold weather should not have too much effect.  I guess I will pick the best player on the field, Adrian Peterson, especially since I need him to come up big. (I traded for him two weeks ago and he has not done much since.  If I don’t win a 12-team league in which I have AP, Megatron, Forte, Reggie Bush and a choice of Andre Brown, Josh Gordon or T.Y. Hilton, then I might give up on Fantasy)

Chargers +5 over CHIEFS

Vegas has not given the Chiefs any respect, and even at home against a suddenly free-falling Chargers team they get put in the Vegas zone at 5.  Just as the Denver game was screaming at you to take KC, this one seems to be doing the same.  With that said, I will do the same and go against them since it worked out last week.

DOLPHINS +4.5 over Panthers

It’s a short week for Carolina, combined with travel and a lot of attention surrounding the controversial end of last week.  All of that, plus with Tampa on deck at home next week, if Carolina wins they would probably end up with an 8-game winning streak going into New Orleans.  This team does not seem good enough to win 8 in a row.  I can’t find an exact stat, but I feel like there can’t be that many of those in NFL history.  Upset of the week in a bounce back. 

BROWNS -2 over Steelers

Opposite theory is strongly in play here, and it almost worries me that Vegas is on to it by making Cleveland the favorite.  The Steelers looked good last week facing a terrible secondary.  Now, Antonio Brown will have the best corner in the league on him, Joe Haden.  Matthew Berry had the stat that: “Haden has now faced A.J. Green (twice), Torrey Smith (twice), Calvin Johnson and Jordy Nelson. In those six games, those wideouts averaged 48 yards and caught only one touchdown.”  Quite impressive.

RAMS -1 over Bears

Zac Stacy may be the real deal and I may be regretting putting him in a package to get AP.  St. Louis’ defense is really good as well.  I also am not buying the bears, who are 3-4 in their last seven with wins over Green Bay when Rodgers got hurt, a weird win in OT over a struggling Baltimore team, and less than a touchdown at home over the Giants.  Chicago just might not be that good.

Jets +3.5 over RAVENS

As I was saying, Baltimore is really struggling, even with Ray Rice going.  Joe Flacco is playing like a guy who has over $100 million guaranteed with no fire, and the defense is a shell of last year’s.  Geno Smith on the road sounds terrible but I am too lazy to go back and change it.

RAIDERS -1 over Titans

Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road sounds almost as bad as Geno Smith on the road, and I still think Terrelle Pryor has got something.  Chris Johnson would have his best week of the year last week when I needed a win against him, and I doubt he really builds on his performance.

CARDINALS -2.5 over Colts

The quietest 6-4 team ever is getting the respect it deserves from Vegas.  In my preseason preview I knew I should have picked them as my sleeper wild card team, but couldn’t find the balls to pull the trigger.  If Carson Palmer takes care of the ball, they win this game, plain and simple.  Their defense will get them a lead early, and only the dreaded Palmer TAINT will get Indy back in it.

Cowboys +3 over GIANTS

Almost every week I have picked against the Cowboys, even though I do not believe it is the right choice.  This has not been good for my totals as they are the best team in the league against the number.  After my revelation I am going to try and just enjoy my ‘Boys and pick it as I see it.  Eli sucks, Romo is awesome.  So I take the Cowboys for the win.

PATRIOTS +3 over Broncos

Peyton Manning is the greatest football player ever in my mind, but Bill Belicheat cheats.  I also don’t like the shorter week after a tough prime time game in the cold, back out in the cold at night, for Peyton’s older arm. 

REDSKINS +6 over 49ers

San Francisco has back to back long road trips, and I still am the first person that started the now-getting-crowded, “Collin Kaepernick is over-rated” bandwagon.  The 49ers should not be giving almost a touchdown on the road to anyone.  Washington does have the worst pass-defense in the league, but San Francisco’s passing offense is even worse in comparison.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Chiefs/Chargers UNDER 53, Broncos/Patriots OVER 42, Patriots +13

Others I Like:

Giants +7, Giants/Cowboys OVER 33.5, Lions +3.5, Vikings +14.5, Colts +12.5, Texans PK

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 9-5-1Overall: 88-73-6

NFL Week 11 Picks

Falcons -1 over BUCCANEERS

With Bobby Rainey and Brian Leonard now starting at running back behind quarterback Mike Glennon, I just don’t see how anyone can pick this Tampa team to beat a team that is not in complete locker room disarray.  Roddy White comes back with a vengeance. 

BILLS -1 over Jets

E.J. Manuel should be coming back this week, and the Bills should be able to run on New York.  Rex Ryan can only hide Geno Smith’s limitations so much until his mistakes cause a Jets’ defeat.

STEELERS +3 over Lions

Just like the Giants, I (as well as everyone else, including fans of the teams) had these two left for dead too soon.  Now?  Both are two wins away from being tied for the division lead.  The world is not kind enough for the Steelers to lose this game.

EAGLES -4 over Redskins

Is Nick Foles for real?  I keep wanting to think that he is a product of going off in two games against two terrible teams (Raiders and Bucs) and getting very fortuitous against a decent team without the best player in the league.  I’ll ride him for one more week because I think RG3 has gotten found out as a one-hit wonder.

DOLPHINS +2 over Chargers

Theory of Opposites with Miami.  They looked atrocious last week against Tampa, but have now had a full week with their new lineman to work out the kinks.  It just seems like a complete sucker bet on the Chargers, so Miami rallies around their coach and gets the win.

Ravens +3.5 over BEARS

Josh McCown’s presence has actually pushed this line a point higher for the Bears.  LaDarius Webb hangs with Brandon Marshall and the Ravens get after McCown to cover.

Browns +6 over BENGALS

No Leon Hall, no Geno Atkins, Andy Dalton has turned into the spare we all thought he would be, and Marvin Jones’ pumpkin hit midnight.  Jason Campbell is surprisingly efficient since taking over, and Cleveland can smell the playoffs.  Upset of the week to make it four in a row.

Raiders +7 over TEXANS

This was the hardest game to pick of the week, especially because two major books had the number at 7, while one had it at Raiders -1.5.  Something might be amiss as I am writing this, so combine that with the fact that I do not think these two teams are that different and I’ll take the points.

JAGUARS +7.5 over Cardinals

Going against my philosophy that I do not think the Jags will win, but I feel even less certain that Arizona can blow anyone out.  Carson Palmer throws too many interceptions to sustain a big lead and Jacksonville is forgetting their goal of the number-one pick.

BRONCOS -8 over Chiefs

Do you know what that 8-number is begging you to do?  Get more than a touchdown with a 9-0 team?  Sucker-bet.  The Chiefs will try to bring the pressure on a gimpy Manning, but don’t you think he knows that?  Wes Welker and Julius Thomas have gigantic days as they catch short hot routes over the middle and turn them into big gains.

Vikings +13 over SEAHAWKS

As good as the Seattle pass defense is, the rush defense has been rather paltry.  Adrian Peterson should have a field day and keep this game within two touchdowns.

49ers +3.5 over SAINTS

People are over-rating the Saints’ big win Sunday, and under-rating how good the Panthers were in destroying San Francisco.  Harbaugh brings his team back with a vengeance and lost in Sunday night’s massacre was the Cowboys ran the ball somewhat well.  Gore and Kaepernick should have big days on the ground.

Packers +6 over GIANTS

Scott Tolzien looked surprisingly competent last week with really good arm strength.  A week of first team reps will do him well and Eli will throw a couple more league leading interceptions.  This may be more of a hope that Dallas does not play New York with first place on the line. Gulp.

PANTHERS -2.5 over Patriots

You can run on the Patriots without Vince Wilfork in the middle, and running is what this Carolina team does best.  With Jonathan Stewart back, the Panthers have four legitimate rushing options to grind out long drives and keep Brady off the field.  Carolina keeps rolling.

Bonus College Parlay:

Baylor -27 over Tech; Baylor/Tech OVER 86

Trust me.  Seriously, just trust me.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Broncos +2, Eagles/Redskins OVER 34, Bills +9

Others I Like:

Broncos/Chiefs UNDER 61, Packers +16, Vikings +23, Browns +16, Panthers +7.5, Falcons +9

This Week: 0-0-1

Last Week: 8-6

Overall: 79-68-5