After a couple of quick-pick weeks, it’s time to delve into some trends this season.
As I have been on for the past few years, The Opposite Theory is when a team that covered the week before is playing a team that did not cover the previous game. It had developed into a profitable trend.
This season it has had some ups and downs, but is still two games above .500 which is basically breaking even money-wise.
Home underdogs have been strong this year, posting a 19-11-1 record. So if you only bet $100 a game on the home dogs, then you would be up $700 for the season.
Touchdown favorites are 16-10-1 and double-digit favorites are 4-3. Those trends seem to not matter as much as in previous years.
Then there is the West Coast team playing East at a noon start. This used to be one of the best bets each week. However, these West Coast teams are 7-4.
So now that we are at the mid-point, I am going to see if there are any other trends to follow. The next few weeks might have some ups and downs as I experiment with them.
TITANS -3 over Jaguars
I forgot to Tweet it, but I bet it. Home teams are now 6-2 against the spread on Thursday night games. The only ones that did not cover were the weird New England/Buffalo game with Jacoby Brissett starting, and the Arizona/San Francisco game which was just a massive talent gap.
Redskins +3 over Bengals (In London)
The last of the London games this season. Although it is nice to have football on for basically 14 hours straight, it does force you to wake up super early to get your bets, lineups and survivor picks set.
Packers +3 over FALCONS
Green Bay looked like they found something in the West-Coast stylized short passing attack. Their line is awful, but with Cobb, Adams and Montgomery, Aaron Rodgers can get his receivers YAC opportunity. They also have extra preparation time after a Thursday night game.
TEXANS -2.5 over Lions
Houston looked awful Monday night, mostly because they had Brock Osweiler slinging the ball around like he was in the Big XII. That is not the way that he is a successful quarterback. He is a game manager. Lamar Miller will get a massive workload as they control the flow of the game and keep Matthew Stafford off of the field.
SAINTS +3 over Seahawks
I am going with all of the home underdogs this week. Drew Brees at home is just a different player, no matter what defense he is facing. Seattle’s offense has looked like a mess all season.
BILLS +7 over Patriots
This is one you just have to grit your teeth and bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. It’s a TOT game, a home underdog, and a touchdown underdog. The Patriots haven’t gotten swept by a division foe since 2000, so hopefully Buffalo can just keep it close.
BROWNS +3 over Jets
This has to be the hardest week in memory for a Survivor pick. The biggest favorite is the previous game with all of those trends against it. The worst team, Cleveland, is at home against another one of the worst 4 or 5 teams. I think the Jets will be a popular pick, meaning Cleveland will win this TOT game.
BUCCANEERS PK over Raiders
The Raiders like to build up expectations then tear them down. Over 80% of all bets are on Oakland at this point. That high of a percentage has yielded a 6-8 record for the betters. Jameis Winston will tear the Oakland secondary apart and Mike Evans continues his sneaky-great start to the year.
COLTS +3 over Chiefs
Kansas City is another popular play this week. They have been on a roll since their demolition at the hands of Pittsburgh. However, the Chiefs’ pass rush is not what it used to be. If you give Andrew Luck time, he will be able to find lanes.
BRONCOS -4 over Chargers
I like the revenge factor here for Denver after losing at San Diego a couple of Thursdays ago. Devontae Booker is an upgrade over C.J. Anderson in the running game.
PANTHERS -3 over Cardinals
Easily the two most disappointing teams this season, something has to give. Arizona should be able to score on Carolina’s Jekyll and Hyde defense, but Carolina is in must-win mode.
Eagles +5 over COWBOYS
This line has gone 2.5 points too high. I think these teams are pretty equal, and Dallas has absolutely no home-field advantage. If I’m wrong though, and Dak breaks down the top DVOA-ranked team, we might have a real contender here.
BEARS +5 over Vikings
The last of five home underdogs and probably the other most-picked survivor game. The Eagles showed the massive weakness that is the Vikings’ offensive line. As I have heard, “bad lines don’t travel.” That basically means your offensive line can be hidden at home, but on the road they become more of a liability.
Best Bets: 13-9
Eagles +5, Redskins +3, Panthers/Cardinals OVER 46
10-Point Teaser of the Week: 19-2
Cardinals/Panthers OVER 36, Eagles +15, Patriots +3
Others I Like: 37-5
Redskins +13, Browns +13, Saints +13, Packers +13, Packers/Falcons OVER 42, Buccaneers/Raiders OVER 38
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 8-6-1