NFL Week 16 Picks

A solid week for me going 9-7 last week, although I made two more atrocious picks on the Giants and Bucs.  I looked too much into both games and went with trends that I had to sell myself on, rather than just looking at the teams themselves.  With that said, the leaders of the LVH Supercontest have established a winning trend with their pick margins, and the NFC had a dominant 5-1 record against the AFC last week.

Falcons -3.5 over LIONS

I bet on Atlanta last night because as good as Megatron has been, something has seemed off about Stafford.  He had one of the most prolific years in the history of the NFL last year, and it either got to his head, or his arm is getting worn out.  He has missed easy throws frequently and continues to force bad throws.  It is quite a troubling sign for Lions’ fans.

PACKERS -12.5 over Titans

Normally I would take the points in such a big spread for a team that has not had a 100-yard rusher in 41 games (and people really think Aaron Rodgers should not be considered the best QB in the league).  However, I am starting Chris Johnson in a fantasy championship so I am certain he will lay an absolute egg.

PANTHERS -9 over Raiders

As much as I think Carolina should not be favored that much against anyone, I am playing against Cam Newton in said fantasy championship, so he will most definitely go off today.  The Raiders also just are not very good and have given up, while the Panthers are mostly young and still wanting to get momentum for next season.

Bills +5 over DOLPHINS

Buffalo will bounce back from that horrendous “home” game last week.  Their players were feisty about having to play that game in Toronto and I think they will exact some revenge on a Miami team who has lost 5 of their last 7, including once to these Bills.  Oh, and I am starting Reggie Bush today.

Bengals +3 over STEELERS

Both teams have lost to the Cowboys in the last couple of weeks, but I have got to say that Cincinnati looked like the all-around better team.  They also have a better quarterback, and I do not think Andy Dalton is that great.  Romo and Roethlisberger showed some of their true colors last week: Romo makes plays to help his team win games; Roethlisberger depends on his teammates to make spectacular plays to bail him out.  Everyone has always touted Big Ben as some elite quarterback, when he was dependent on a non-pass interference call and a 100-yard interception return for a touchdown to win his two Super Bowls when his defense carried him to get there.  Over. Rated.

JAGUARS +14 over Patriots

Jacksonville is 2-2 against these big, double-digit spreads including covering at Houston and at Green Bay.  The Patriots will get up early, but Chad Henne has major backdoor cover potential with his two deep threats.

Colts -7 over CHIEFS

The Chiefs are just done for the season, and I cannot really blame them.  The problem is there is not a consensus number 1 pick for the upcoming draft, so they will either have to reach on a quarterback, or trade down.  I would just draft Mant Te’o just because he is an absolute beast.

Saints +3 over COWBOYS

It has been all or nothing with Drew Brees this years, as he has regressed into someone who just wants to throw for 400 yards, interceptions be damned.  You just know that he will have a good day in his home state, and it will probably feel like a home game inside the Death Star.  Oh wait, the Saints are not going to the playoffs?  Oh, ok the fake fans that call themselves the “Who Dat Nation” will not show up.

Redskins -6.5 over EAGLES

If the Giants lose, then those last two games lose a whole lot of meaning, but I still think RG3 will come back strong and lead the Redskins to a win.  Washington, unlike Dallas, has a good chance at the wild card.  If Washington wins today, and Seattle loses, then the Redskins will have the tiebreaker over all of the other wild card contending teams.

BUCS -3 over Rams

Josh Freeman will bounce back and Tampa Bay as a team will too after the horrendous performance last week against New Orleans.  Greg Schiano has that college coach mentality where he will not let his team go off into the night for the season.

RAVENS +3 over Giants

Evverrrryybody is on the Giants this week, but they fail to see what is really happening here: New York is going to lose today, setting up the NFC East Championship next week between Dallas and Washington.  Cowboys’ fans will get their annual nut-kick as RG3 leads a last second touchdown drive to send the Redskins to the playoffs.  Meanwhile, the other wild card contending teams falter, and the Giants pound the Eagles to get that last playoff spot and get to play the 49ers in the first round again.  We all know what happens after that.  I hate football.

TEXANS -8 over Vikings

The only reason I am taking that big number is because Adrian Peterson is the star of the Romosexual Tendencies so he will have his worst game of the year this week.  I am certain of this, especially with Calvin Johnson having a monster for us last night.  Fantasy Nut-kick: engaged.

BRONCOS -12 over Browns

The Browns screwed me last week with that pathetic performance against Kirk Cousins.  They are on the New York Jets’ sponsored No Pick List for the little remainder of the season.

Bears -6 over CARDINALS

Arizona’s sad sack quarterback situation cannot do it two weeks in a row, right?  I would say that the Bears defense has a huge day against them, but that is my defense, so betters beware...

49ers +1.5 over SEAHAWKS

This line was a Pick ‘Em, then moved early to San Francisco by 1 when the sharps jumped all over it.  The public then saw the line and though, “Seattle, at home getting points? I am on it!” not remembering the San Francisco beat the best team in the league last week, on the road.

Chargers +3 over JETS

I really do not like this pick, nor do I even want to pick it.  Both these teams just suck right now, but I will go against Greg McElroy.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Packers -1, Broncos -2, Cowboys/Saints Over 41.5

Others I Like:

Carolina +1, Patriots +4, Patriots/Jaguars Over 41, Colts +3, Redskins +4.5, Cardinals/Bears Under 48

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 9-7

Overall: 124-92-6