NFL Week 15 Picks

            I eked out an above-.500 week, at 8-7-1, but it included two of my worst picks ever: Seattle over Arizona and Houston over New England.  I did not realize just how bad Arizona was, and that is just my lack of caring about them in general.  I also have underestimated the Patriots offense and just how lethal it can be.  The trends had a decent week with one noticeable trend making a return.  The NFC was 4-0 against the spread last week in the inter-conference games.  I still believe that the NFC is the much better and deeper conference, but it is hard to know which games the AFC will actually show up for.

Bengals -3 over EAGLES

I picked this on Thursday in a Tweet, but I wanted to go on another rant.  I am done playing Fantasy Football when Team Defenses are involved.  It is just a freaking roll of the roulette wheel each week on seeing who is going to suck the most on offense.  All I had to do was win last week in a league to get the regular season championship prize, yet the Seahawks’ Defense scored 41 points.  This week, in the first round of the playoffs in another league, the Bengals’ Defense scored 45 points by the stupid scoring system (which the league commissioner who I was playing put in) and I am most likely out even though I dominated the rest of the league by over 100 points.  It is just stupid and I am done.

BEARS +2.5 over Packers

I am still on the bandwagon, although my feet are starting to slip.  Last week was tough with AP just going crazy again, but I think the defense will get pressure on Rodgers and the Bears can pull out the victory.

Giants +1 over FALCONS

Just like I said last week, everything will not work out in the Cowboys’ favor.  As Moneyball put it to me last night, what happens every season?  The Giants seems like they have no chance, then they do just enough to get into the playoffs.  Atlanta looks flawed and the only thing that can change that is Matt Ryan showing up late in the season.

Bucs +4 over SAINTS

Josh Freeman is on a tear right now and I am going to steal a stat from Grantland: if Freeman continues to have similar numbers like this season for the next five, he will have 32,000 yards and 225 touchdowns, putting him in the top 30 all-time for yards and top 24 for touchdowns.  He will be 29. 

Vikings +3 over RAMS

So a normal human being takes a full year to recover from a torn ACL.  Some professional athletes have pushed it to 9 months, but not many running backs.  Adrian Peterson is on pace to have over 1,800 yards rushing before the one year anniversary of his torn ACL. 

BROWNS -3 over Redskins

Another conversation I was involved in regarding the NFL was whether RG3 is going to be like Vick or not in regards to injury.  Would the odds not be higher to say that RG3 will not play a full 16 games every season than saying that he will? 

Jaguars +8 over DOLPHINS

This line just seems too high and I will take the value of getting a touchdown.  I also think Reggie Bush will have a terrible week since I am starting him in the Fantasy Playoffs.

Broncos -3 over RAVENS

I am not sold on the Ravens yet.  Peyton Manning is the best football player ever.  It costs you -130 to bet on the Ravens, yet the line has not moved past 3.  Vegas knows something.

TEXANS -10 over Colts

The sharps were all over this one when it was just 8, and it pushed the line to double digits.  I really think it is too high with the backdoor cover potential of Andrew Luck, but I will go with Vegas when it seems like they know something. 

Panthers +3 over CHARGERS

San Diego is not as good as they looked last week.  Carolina will get after Phillip Rivers and he will start doing Phillip Rivers things like throwing pick-sixes.  Cam Newton has come on in recent weeks and I expect it to continue against a weak Charger defense.

BILLS +5 over Seahawks

The Seattle to Toronto flight cannot be a fun one.  Let alone after a late Sunday game to play an early game the next Sunday.  I think the trend has value in west coast teams playing at noon on the east coast, and I will look at that more.

Lions -6 over CARDINALS

Arizona just sucks.  They have mailed it in and are ruining the career of Larry Fitzgerald.  If he was not such a stand up person he would have asked for a trade a long time ago.  He was on pace to be in the conversation for best receiver ever, but that torch has definitely been passed to the Transformer on the other sideline.

COWBOYS +1 over Steelers

I am sick of hearing how great of a quarterback the rapist is, and how terrible Romo is.  Why do Super Bowls make or break quarterbacks?  Roethlisberger has had a top-5 defense, top-10 rushing attack and a solid offensive line to get him to his three Super Bowls.  When he does not have that, he is all of a sudden not an elite quarterback.  Romo on the other hand, gets called out for not being clutch.  Who drove the team for a win last week?  Who drove the team to 10 feet on a field goal and a pinky finger from late-game winning drives that would have put the Cowboys in the drivers’ seat for the division?  279-of-403 passing for 3,279 yards and 23 touchdowns with only four interceptions. With a 108.6 rating (best in the NFL in that span).  Those are Romo’s numbers in December/January since 2009.  Come at me Romo haters because you all are just football-idiots.

RAIDERS -4 over Chiefs

This game is so meaningless that I am just picking against Brady Quinn.  I do not feel like researching it because betting on it is a coin flip.

49ers +4.5 over PATRIOTS

People who know things are all over the 49ers and have moved the line over two points.  I am going to side with these people and I do not think New England can destroy a top-5 defense in back-to-back weeks.

TITANS -1.5 over Jets

Sweet Monday Night Football game.  I am sticking to not picking the Jets again until someone not named Sanchez or Tebow is their quarterback.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Bucs/Saints Over 44, Packers/Bears Over 33, Bucs +14

Others I Like:

Jaguars +18, Jaguars/Dolphins Under 49, Colts +21, Lions/Cardinals Over 33, Steelers +11, 49ers +14.5

This week: 1-0

Last Week: 8-7-1

Overall: 115-85-6