Post Season and Awards

Post-Season and Awards:

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Johnny Manziel, QB, Cleveland- Risky pick since he’s not even the starter, but if JFF plays at least half the year he will almost assuredly win this award.  The hype and highlights will get him that much.  If he doesn’t start, I’m guessing Kelvin Benjamin wins.  I still don’t advocate Benjamin as a fantasy sleeper, but I think he will have a couple of multiple-TD games with monster catches to boost his resume.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jadaveon Clowney, DE, Houston- With the bad teams he will get to face and J.J. Watt taking all the double teams, 20 sacks is in play.  The only way he might not win would be that Clowney starts so strong that the double teams fall to him giving Watt over 20 sacks, and then look for someone like Aaron Donald of the Rams.

Defensive Player of the Year: DeMarcus Ware, DE, Denver- Ware was hurt all season last year giving a false vibe for the amount of talent he has left.  He will be in an ideal pass-rushing situation: a team that will always be up, score a ton of points forcing the opponent to pass, and with a talented secondary causing the QB to hold onto the ball.  It was still the right choice to cut him, but it will suck when he has 18 sacks and 5 forced fumbles.

Sleeper Defensive Player of the Year: Darrelle Revis, CB, New England- Apparently he is fully healthy as well and we saw what Aqib Talib could do with Belichick last year.  I think he will get opportunities because like Ware, the Patriots will be up and forcing other teams to pass a lot.  They can’t throw away from him the whole game.

MVP: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay- Once again, until otherwise noted he is still the favorite to me.  Even more so since he was injured last year and I doubt that he will miss the majority of the season again.

Sleeper MVP: Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis- I was tempted to take Romo again just because he might throw for 5K, but they Cowboys still will suck so he wouldn’t get consideration.  Rodgers is the best player in the league right now… and Luck is not that far behind him.  One of these years he will take the title belt, so why not this one?

NFC:

#1- Seattle

#2- Green Bay

#3- New Orleans

#4- Philadelphia

#5- San Francisco

#6- Atlanta

Wild Card: San Francisco over Philadelphia, New Orleans over Atlanta

Divisional: San Francisco over Seattle, Green Bay over New Orleans

NFC Championship: Green Bay over San Francisco

San Francisco should have most of its team back from suspension/injury by the end of the season, and I think having the toughest schedule in the league hardens them for the playoff matchups.  If there is a team that can go into Seattle and win, it is probably the 49ers.  Having said that, I still think Green Bay is the best team in the conference besides the Seahawks, and I just can’t see a team repeating anymore.

AFC:

#1- Denver

#2- New England

#3- Indianapolis

#4- Cincinnati

#5- Pittsburgh

#6- Houston

Wild Card: Indianapolis over Houston, Pittsburgh over Cincinnati

Divisional: Denver over Pittsburgh, New England over Indianapolis

AFC Championship: New England over Denver

In the AFC, we get the 37^th (approximately) Brady/Manning championship game.  Pittsburgh could be a dangerous out if they get in the playoffs and would not surprise me if they upset one of the favorites.  However, I think Brady knows this might be his last chance as one of the favorites.  The young quarterbacks in his division are going to get better (Tannehill, and Smith or Manuel) and outside of the division have already hit elite (Luck).  Denver just won’t have the stamina to get to back-to-back Super Bowls.

SUPER BOWL XLIX: New England over Green Bay

As much as I love Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ team, I just have a feeling that this is the year that Brady/Belichick get one more.  The schedule sets up for them to have an easy ride into a first round bye, and the rest of the AFC is pretty weak outside of Denver.  While this was a bad thing when the Broncos had to face the staunch Seattle defense, when facing a team like the Packers the more healthy and invigorated team will win.  That will definitely be the Patriots after the Packers have to run the NFC gauntlet.

THURSDAY NIGHT PICK: SEAHAKS -5.5 over PACKERS

I know, I just picked Green Bay to go to the Super Bowl, but I think the energy will be too high for the Packers to overcome.  Also notice I did not pick Green Bay to have to beat the Seahawks because I think it is a bad matchup.  The one hesitation I have is that the referee crew calling the game called twice as many DB penalties (pass interference, holding, illegal contact) than league average over both the preseason and last year.  If they call it too tightly, then Aaron Rodgers will take advantage.

NFC Preview

NFC

WEST

Seattle Seahawks, 12-4

San Francisco 49ers, 9-7

Arizona Cardinals, 7-9

St. Louis Rams, 5-11

            Usually when a team wins a Super Bowl they suffer from the “Disease of More” in which players leave the team for more money elsewhere.  The prime example would be Paul Kruger leaving the Ravens after a solid post-season.  The difference about this Seattle team is their structure: late round picks on their inexpensive rookie contracts.  The Seahawks were able to keep the majority of their team in tact and are in prime position to repeat.  As hard as it may seem to believe, I think their defense is actually under-rated: that this is one of the best units in the history of the game when you factor in how good the offenses are now.  I mean they took the most prolific offense in NFL history and completely dismantled it, even outscoring it by themselves.  When you combine that fact with an efficient quarterback who doesn’t turn the ball over making less than a million dollars a year and the best home field advantage in the game, then you get a team locked in for 12-13 wins.  Now after this year, things might change as some rookie contracts will be up, but until then they should remain the favorite.

            San Francisco is a hard team to get a good grasp on with so many suspensions and off the field incidents.  The defense is not going to be nearly as good as it has been, especially at the start of the year.  Navarro Bowman had quietly become one of the best linebackers in the league and his presence will be sorely missed.  The offense should be better with a full season of Michael Crabtree and Collin Kaepernick together.  At some point, Kaepernick will have to take a step up with his passing if he wants to move up to the upper echelon of quarterbacks.  The biggest factor I see in the 49ers taking a step back is their schedule: 13 of their 16 games they play a team that won 8 or more games last season, over half of them playoff teams.  Of the other three, they also have a cross-country trip to New York to play the Giants for a noon start.  If I did not have so much faith in Jim Harbaugh, I would have put San Francisco below .500.

            Arizona surprised everyone last year by winning 10 games and still missing the playoffs.  Carson Palmer remains an under-rated option at quarterback throwing for almost 4,300 yards and 24 touchdowns.  If he can work on cutting down the interceptions, this offense can be explosive because of their two-headed receiving monster, Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald.  Floyd actually led the team with 1,041 yards last season and looks to improve upon his 5 touchdowns.  Andre Ellington looks like a top fantasy sleeper to bust out after averaging 5.5 yards per carry and likely getting many more carries this season.  The defense will miss the honey badger at first, but Patrick Peterson can more than make up the slack.  Peterson has the highest approximate value of any non-quarterback since entering the league.  What really hurts Arizona is the same problem facing all of the NFC West: having to play the AFC West.  The Cardinals also get the extra game on the road against a much-improved Atlanta team, so it does not bode well for their playoff hopes.

            St. Louis will always have to deal with the comparisons between RGIII and whoever the Rams have at quarterback after dealing away the pick for him.  I still think it was the right move, even if Sam Bradford does not pan out which is especially likely now.  The Rams have built a strong roster everywhere else except quarterback.  They have the best defensive line in football, to go with a young and athletic back seven.  Their offense line is decent and they just added the best tackle in the draft.  Their receivers need to improve, but their running backs are extremely deep after adding Tre Mason to the emergent Zac Stacy.  The table is set for a quarterback to come in, and as we just saw with Seattle, a quarterback can reach his maximum potential in a quicker manner in this type of situation.  Sam Bradford was going to reap the rewards for that but another torn ACL may have ended his time in St. Louis.  Shaun Hill gives me no hope, so unless the Rams make a trade for Kirk Cousins or another possible starter, I think St. Louis will have a very high pick to take a quarterback (Winston, Mariota, Hundley) with much higher potential than Griffin.

SOUTH

New Orleans Saints, 10-6

Atlanta Falcons, 9-7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8-8

Carolina Panthers, 6-10

            The Saints did something that is quite surprising last season: they were the second ranked team in both passing and opponents’ passing.  Usually when a team throws as much as New Orleans (i.e. Denver: 1^st in passing/27^th in opposing passing) they give up more yards due to mere opportunities.  Rob Ryan has really turned this Saints’ defense around and Kenny Vaccaro and Jairus Byrd create a lot of havoc in the back.  Drew Brees now owns half of the 5,000 yard passing seasons in NFL history, and he has a new toy in the fastest receiver in the draft Brandin Cooks.  They will still lose a few random road games when Brees gets a little careless with the ball, but the Saints are a good bet to take the division.

            Every year it happens to me (and many other fans as well) and every year I fall for it again.  I always over-rate the team on Hard Knocks just because it is such a great show that I fall enamored with the team involved.  Couple the Hard Knocks factor with an Atlanta team that lost some of its top weapons to injury last season and I feel strongly that the Falcons should bounce back.  I’m worried about their linebackers after Weatherspoon went out with an Achilles injury, but their offense should keep them in plenty of shootouts.  Matt Ryan just has a plethora of weapons when they are all healthy after Harry Douglas broke out for 1,000 yards last year, and I expect rookie RB Devonta Freeman to get double-digit touches a game.  This offense will score some points and keep Atlanta in playoff contention.

            Do you remember what the Chiefs added/changed between 2012/2013?  They added a better head coach, and upgraded to an efficient quarterback that takes care of the football.  Tampa Bay got rid of Greg Schiano and upgraded to Love Smith who is 81-63 as a coach with a Super Bowl trip.  Josh McCown showed last season that given two big targets, he can take care of the ball and put up points (Chicago led the league in scoring last season).  So now McCown has Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans out wide with athletic freak Austin Sefarian-Jenkins at tight end which should help the league’s 32^nd ranked passing attack.  I think the running backs with split carries between Doug Martin, Mike James and Bobby Rainey.  I am not completely sold on the defense to put the Bucs in the playoffs just yet.  Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David are studs, but Michael Johnson and Dashon Goldson need to earn their money.  If the defense can step up, then Tampa will definitely be in the playoff hunt.

            Then there is the near lock to regress from a good season last year, the Carolina Panthers.  Carolina took advantage of an easy schedule and a dominant defense to mow their way into the playoffs.  Don’t get me wrong, the defense will be good again, but it will be hard to top giving up less than 300 yards per game.  The more disturbing part of the Panthers is their entire offense.  The line lost Jordan Gross to retirement and has no hope of replacing him with any sort of solidity.  Not a single wide receiver returning from last year had even 100 yards.  They drafted Kelvin Benjamin who has wowed with highlight catches, but he will have to prove himself before I’m touching him in fantasy leagues.  DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart are the two-headed RBC that seems to be ready to fall off the edge.  Of course there is still Cam Newton, but the broken ribs worry me that he will not be ready to take as much of a beating, which has been the Panthers’ best red zone offense.  All of this adds together to create a losing season for Carolina.

NORTH

Green Bay Packers, 12-4

Chicago Bears, 9-7

Detroit Lions, 8-8

Minnesota Vikings, 5-11

            Green Bay somehow won the division without Aaron Rodgers for half of the season.  With Rodgers there for a full year, they will always be around 12 wins.  The defense was the issue even without Rodgers and getting some guys back from injury as well as drafting the top safety in the draft Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix should help them bounce back.  Eddie Lacy was a breakout last year, but I am worried that he has a little too much Trent Richardson-quality to him.  Lacy only averaged a little over 4 yards a carry on his way to 1,178 yards, and he had over 300 touches as a rookie.  Even if Lacy disappoints, a full year of Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson together will get Rodgers near 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns leading the Pack to a first round bye week.

            On the whole, you would have to say that the NFC North has the best offenses.  The Bears sport the best receiver pair in the league with Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall who combined for over 2,700 yards and 19 touchdowns last season.  Jay Cutler will take more chances than McCown, so expect even more big plays from the massive duo.  Matt Forte benefitted the most from Marc Trestman’s offense, putting up career highs across the board.  Of course I own him in a fantasy league this year, so he will get hurt or completely disappear.  What holds Chicago back is a putrid defense that rivaled the Cowboys for dreadfulness.  Opponents rushed for more than 160 yards a game against the Bears, keeping their explosive offense off the field.  Chicago added CB Kyle Fuller and a pair of run-stuffing defensive tackles with their first three picks to help shore up their rush defense.  The key to the Bears’ season lies in weeks 2-6: at San Francisco, at the Jets, Green Bay, at Carolina, and at Atlanta.  If they get through that tough stretch at 2-3 or better, the Bears should make the playoffs.

            From the league’s best receiving duo, to the league’s best receiver the Detroit Lions are not afraid to give Matthew Stafford weapons.  With their first pick they took the athletic TE Eric Ebron as well as signing WR Golden Tate to be the number two option.  Reggie Bush and Joique Bell will have a 50/50 split in the backfield, but both bring great pass-catching skills out of the backfield.  The back seven of the Lions’ defense is their biggest weakness.  Suh and Nick Fairley clog up the rushing lanes in the middle, but a lack of pressure on the edges (Ezekial Ansah needs to live up to his draft status) and no shutdown corner leaves the Lions susceptible to big gains.  The Lions have had a penchant to fold down the stretch, especially last year losing their last few games when they just needed a single win to make the playoffs.  This year will not be easier as they end the year with road trips to Chicago and Green Bay which I think leaves them just outside of the playoffs.

            The Vikings drafted Teddy Bridgewater to be the quarterback of their future, but will start Matt Cassel in week one.  I thought that Bridgewater was as ready as Bortles, so I was curious as to the decision.  I think what the Vikings’ coaches see is the likelihood of a very rough start.  After a road game in St. Louis, the Vikings get New England at home, at New Orleans, Atlanta, and at Green Bay.  A loss in week one puts the Vikings at a likely 0-5.  There back half of the schedule sees much worse defenses and teams in general, meaning I think we see Bridgewater somewhere around the Detroit game in week six.  This will not make Adrian Peterson happy as he recently voiced his desires to leave Minnesota.  He will have to toil against 8-man boxes for at least the first few games, as Matt Cassel will not scare any DB’s from crowding the line.

EAST

Philadelphia Eagles, 9-7

New York Giants, 8-8

Washington Redskins, 7-9

Dallas Cowboys, 6-10

            Chip Kelly took the NFL by storm with his fast paced offense, and while it has staying power I do not think it will be nearly as strong as last season.  Along those lines, I am not a believer in Nick Foles and think that the league will catch up to him this year.  My bold prediction for this season: we see Mark Sanchez in significant time at some point this season.  There is a reason that Kelly went out of his way to snatch up Sanchez.  LeSean McCoy crossed 1,600 yards last year, but there is a reason that he is +1200 (meaning you bet $100 dollars to win $1,200) to do it again: the NFL defensive coordinators are too smart to get beat that badly again all year.  The real problem with the offense is its effect on the defense: last in the league against the pass.  When Philly is running so many plays at such a fast pace, the defense will have to match it week in, week out, leading to more injuries and fatigue on the defenders.  The Eagles also lose their top target in DeSean Jackson, but I think Jeremy Maclin can bring the same dynamic as long as he stays healthy.  With all that said, I still have the Eagles winning the division.  The other three teams just are not that good. Period.

            I have the Giants in second by sheer default.  New York’s offensive line is in shambles, especially after Tom Coughlin’s son-in-law had to retire due to injury.  Eli will be working in a new offense for the first time in his career, which could lead to even more interceptions if that’s even possible.  Rashad Jennings will get the bulk of the RB load, which should mean a TON of receptions.  If possible I would acquire him in any fantasy leagues with PPR because Eli will be checking down to Jennings at least 5 or 6 times a game.  The defense is actually a decent unit, finishing top-15 against both the rush and pass.  That decent defense combined with a so-so schedule will keep the Giants around mediocrity.

             I think that there is something to the notion that this team might be better with Kirk Cousins over RG3.  Jay Gruden brings his offense over from Cincinnati, where Andy Dalton has led them to the playoffs three years in a row.  Cousins is more of a Dalton-type in that he will sit in the pocket and let the reads progress, while Griffin will just take off whenever the pocket collapses at all.  I don’t think Griffin will stay healthy the whole season and Cousins could impress, big time.  The addition of DeSean Jackson takes away from both he and Pierre Garcon’s fantasy value, as there will only be so many targets to go around.  On defense the Washington pro football team will need Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan to play at their highest level rushing the passer.  Deangelo Hall only plays two good games a year against the Cowboys, so the other 14 the secondary is very suspect.  If the Redskins were in any other division I would have them around 4 wins.

            And then there is Dallas.  There is a distinct possibility that the Cowboys end the season with the best offense and worst defense statistically.  Romo looked healthy at the end of the pre season, and the wobbled throws will iron out after a full game.  Dez Bryant is ready to get paid and I feel very strongly about getting him at 10:1 to win the receiving yards title.  DeMarco Murray showed he could play 14 games last year and that he is an elite back (5.2 yards per carry, 9 touchdowns).  The Cowboys have three of the best lineman in the league at their respective positions: and they are all 23 or younger.  This offense is built to score a ton of points now as well as to welcome a new quarterback in the next few years once Romo goes his way.  The defense will be appalling.  The DeMarcus Ware and Jason Hatcher decisions were right; those two needed to be let go so that the team could move forward.  However without them, and with Sean Lee out for the year already and Orlando Scandrick suspended for four games, Dallas will be without its top four players form last year’s defense… that was the worst in the league.  Henry Melton should help up front and hopefully Rolando McLain decides to live up to his potential, but there is just no way this team gives up less than 30 points a game.  While the offense is good, they will not be historic enough to overcome such a bad defense.  The schedule does them no favors with extra games at Chicago and New Orleans, and the NFC West.  Six wins could be generous.

AFC Predictions

AFC

WEST

Denver Broncos, 14-2

San Diego Chargers, 9-7

Kansas City Chiefs, 7-9

Oakland Raiders, 3-13

            The Broncos had arguably the best offseason in the league after their demolition in the Super Bowl.  They let Eric Decker walk, but added Emmanuel Sanders to replace him.  I’m not going to say that one is a better player than the other, but moreover that they bring different aspects to the offense.  Decker had turned into a monster in the red zone for Peyton Manning and I think he will miss that.  Adding DeMarcus Ware opposite of Von Miller (if he can return to form) creates quite a pass rush, and Aqib Talib is on the short list of the best corners in the game.  The schedule is quite a bit more difficult than last year with the NFC West on task.   I still think the Broncos can get to 14 wins, but it will not be like last season.  There will be more close games as well as a whole lot less scoring and passing yards.

            There was one writer who picked San Diego to win the division and I don’t think that it is really that crazy.  Mike McCoy was the perfect match for Phillip Rivers and it completely revitalized the quarterback.  I am very high on Keenan Allen (as you might know if we are in a fantasy league together) and think he really started breaking out at the end of last season.  The one issue I have with the Chargers is their back seven on defense.  Manti Te’o has never exactly been Mr. Coverage, and Eric Weddle did not have as good of a season as he normally does.  San Diego gave up almost 260 yards a game through the air, 29^th in the league.  I expect rookie Jason Verrett to get significant playing time, usually in the slot on the likes of the Wes Welker (if he’s healthy) and Julian Edelman types.  The X-factor of their season will be TE Ladarius Green: he has the ability and potential to make the leap into Jimmy Graham’s tier of tight ends, and if the Chargers add that component to their offense then they will be a dangerous team come playoff time.

            Last year, Kansas City was the odds-on favorite to be the team to jump from out of the playoffs to a spot in the post season and they delivered on it.  This year, they are the prime contender to regress back to the mean and out of the playoffs.  The Chiefs took advantage of an easy beginning of their schedule and rode that hot start into the playoffs.  This season they will not be so lucky with road trips to Miami, New England and Denver, along with a home game against the 49ers before their Week 6 Bye.  They would need an even bigger year from Jamaal Charles, which I just do not see happening.  I think Andy Reid is going to ask too much from Alex Smith and it will blow up in his face.

            Maybe I should believe in recent history more, but I was set to have the Raiders in playoff contention until they announced Derek Carr as their starter.  Matt Schaub has left everyone with a bad taste in their mouths because of his pick-six run, but there is no statistical evidence that backs up interceptions being returned for touchdowns as anything but luck.  Unless Carr blows up in RGIII-like proportions, I just do not see why Oakland is giving him the reins so soon.  They upgraded their defense significantly with Justin Tuck, Lamar Woodley, Charles Woodson and Khalil Mack.  The receiving core is still sub-par, but adding James Jones is a start.  Even Maurice Jones-Drew looks like his former self in the pre season.  It all adds up to a decent roster surrounding the quarterback, something Schaub had in Houston and led to multiple playoff appearances.  Derek Carr will have to completely prove me wrong for this team to not draft in the top-five next year.

SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts, 10-6

Houston Texans, 9-7

Tennessee Titans, 6-10

Jacksonville Jaguars, 3-13

            I think it is at the point where if Andrew Luck is playing then he is winning double-digit games.  After back-to-back 11-5 seasons, Luck has cemented himself as the future of NFL QB’s.  This season gives them the extra games against Denver and New England, but the rest of their division is so bad that it should not matter too much.  If they want to make a run, Trent Richardson will have to do better to justify the first round pick that the Colts really could have used.  There were plenty of defensive options available that could have helped Indy’s 26^th ranked rush defense.  Either way, I think the Colts are the penciled in winners of this division for at least the next few seasons.

            Say hello to this year’s first pick to playoff team!  The Texans are not going to be a good team, but they have the easiest schedule in the league.  Houston has also put together the most fearsome bookends in recent memory with newly extended (and highest guaranteed salary for a defensive player ever) J.J. Watt and number one pick Jadaveon Clowney.  They were already 3^rd in the league against the pass, and now will have two guys threaten to have 20 sacks each.  The unknown factor that could make this prediction entirely too high is Ryan Fitzpatrick.  The Harvard product used a strong start to the 2011 season (14 touchdowns, 97.8 rating over the first seven games) to get a $59 million extension, then proceeded to finish the year with 23 interceptions.  He averages more than an interception per game over his career, never thrown for 4,000 yards or 25 touchdowns, and his career rating is 77.5.  Fitzpatrick will not win games for this team so it will have to be Foster.  If he is healthy, he can make it happen and that’s a big if.

            If I had to pick the best position group of the Tennessee Titans it would be their offensive line.  Michael Oher and Michael Roos at tackle, the best guard combo in the league with Warmack and Levitre, and Brian Schwenke at center.  So why on Earth did they pick LT Taylor Lewan in the first round?  Then with their second round pick, they took Bishop Sankey: a running back who can’t beat out Shonn Greene.  That, my friends, is a bad draft.  Funny enough, their best pick was probably Zach Mettenberger in the sixth round, who I think ends up starting by the end of the season.  Jake Locker is in a make or break year, and I think it will be bad.  The Titans first four games are at Kansas City, home against Dallas, at Cincinnati and at Indianapolis.  There is a real possibility that they will be 0-4 and Locker gets benched.

            Gus Bradley has said he has no intention of starting Blake Bortles this season and Chad Henne is just a band-aid on the gunshot wound that is the Jaguars’ organization.  Bortles looked ready in the pre-season and much like the Titans, Jacksonville could have a rough start to the year: at Philly, at Washington, Indianapolis at home, at San Diego, Pittsburgh at home.  That has 0-5 staring them in the face, and the Blake Bortles-era beginning.  Toby Gerhart will get his chance as a starter after the Jaguars averaged just 78.8 yards rushing a game last year.  The same problem from last season faces Gerhart though: a bad offensive line along with the Jags playing from behind and having to pass too much.  Bortles at least looks like he might have the team going in the right direction for the future.

NORTH

Cincinnati Bengals, 10-6

Pittsburgh Steelers, 9-7

Baltimore Ravens, 8-8

Cleveland Browns, 5-11

            The AFC North is the most difficult to predict in the AFC, and along with the NFC East the murkiest in the league.  I’m picking the Bengals first in spite of Andy Dalton, and because they won the division last year even though they were one of the most injured teams in the NFL.  Geno Atkins is one of, if not the best defensive tackle in the league and he is fully healthy now.  Without him last year, Cincinnati was still a top-5 defense in all areas.  On offense, Dalton threw for almost 4,300 yards and 33 touchdowns last year in a pretty ideal situation.  He has one of the best defenses, an absolute stud at receiver in A.J. Green, one of the best pass catching backs in Giovani Bernard, and a strong offensive line.  With that said, I might have waited to give him $100 million until after he proves he can lead this team deep in the playoffs.

            After a rough start to the year, the Steelers were the team that everyone in the AFC was hoping would not make the playoffs.  Ben Roethlisberger did Ben Roethlisberger things, and Antonio Brown turned into a top-10 receiver.  People seem to forget that he had 110 catches for 1,500 yards and 8 touchdowns last season, because I stole him in the third round in a couple of fantasy drafts.  I’m not sold on Le’Veon Bell, especially after the recent arrest.  I think Dri Archer will get some carries and targets and provide a big-play dynamic.  The schedule is not favorable late in the season with both games against the Bengals, along with the Saints, Falcons and Chiefs to close out the year.  I think my black father will have them more focused and disciplined to start the year and get Pittsburgh into playoff contention.

            Sometimes you let your quarterback win a Super Bowl before giving him the $100 million and it still does not work out.  Flacco made about a million bucks per touchdown pass last season as he could not even crack the 20-TD barrier.  The running game did not help much either, as Ray Rice fell off a cliff and the team only averaged 83 yards per game.  After knocking his then-fiancé out, Rice will be gone the first two games but I think he will come back with a vengeance for the rest of the season.  He should be a good fantasy steal as you can draft him as a bench player and he will end up as a legit RB2.  The Ravens think they have their new Ray Lewis with MLB C.J. Mosley out of Alabama.  However, I think there is something to the fact that more than half of the Crimson Tide defenders that get drafted highly have turned out to be busts.  The combination of the defensive scheme in Tuscaloosa and the amount of wear and tear from those tough Nick Saban practices takes its toll.  The defense should be good enough for the Ravens to make the playoffs, but I think Joe Flacco is just a below-average quarterback who happened to have the best 4-game stretch of his career in the playoffs.

            Then there is the real story of the division, the Cleveland Manziels.  Mike Pettine handled the QB-situation in Cleveland in the worst way possible in my opinion.  I think he should have been firm in starting Hoyer and letting Manziel mature/progress a little bit before throwing him to the wolves.  This is not a good team that will be without its best offensive player, Josh Gordon.  Let Hoyer take the lumps at the beginning of the season so that the pressure is off of Johnny.  Then Pettine names Hoyer the starter, but hints that Manziel could play as well so that Hoyer will feel the pressure from the bench too.  I mean I don’t think Manziel will end up as a quality pro, but you definitely need to get him in a better situation.  The strength of the Browns really is their pass defense, as Joe Haden has turned into one of the best corners in the league.  First round pick Justin Gilbert showed his skills against some of the best receivers in the country from the Big XII.  They will keep the Browns in some games, but the lack of offensive fire power (Ben Tate, really?) will knock the Browns right out of games as well.

EAST

New England Patriots, 12-4

Miami Dolphins, 8-8

Buffalo Bills, 7-9

New York Jets, 6-10

            The most paramount factor keeping the Patriots’ title window open is not Tom Brady or Bill Belichick: it’s this weak division.  Its weakness is not apparent because the teams usually aren’t the worst in the conference, but between Miami, Buffalo and the Jets, they cannot bring out a true contender to win the division; they just bring you mediocrity.  New England did suffer a lot of injuries last year, but I still think they were not beating the Denver buzz saw.  If Gronkowski is actually fully healthy for the first game and is playing up to his level, then they could dethrone Denver.  If he is not, I just don’t think they have the offensive weaponry.  The schedule could end up giving the Patriots a strong start if they can sweep Miami and Minnesota on the road.  If they pull that off I see them being at 8-0 going into a home matchup with the Broncos. 

            I think Ryan Tannehill might be better than what he is getting credit for so far in his short career.  I mean he threw for almost 4,000 yards and 24 touchdowns with a running game that got him just 90 yards on the ground a game (15 coming from his own feet).  Miami beefed up the O-Line with two free agents, Brandon Albert and Jason Fox, and their first pick Ja’wuan James.  If Tannehill can cut down on the turnovers (17 interceptions) and utilize Mike Wallace more then the Dolphins could sneak into the playoffs. 

            Buffalo put a lot of their eggs in the Sammy Watkins basket by giving up their first round pick next year to move up and select the Clemson star.  Apparently a few teams had the WR as the best player on the board, including the Bills.  I don’t view him as that big of a superstar, but Buffalo had to do something with their receiving options.  Last year their tight end Scott Chandler led the team in receiving with 655 yards.  They only have one returning receiver who had over 300 yards last year.  What they do have is the second best rushing attack in the league with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller.  Fred Jackson was surprisingly the tenth best fantasy RB last season.  The defensive line for Buffalo sets the tone for a decent unit.  Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams provide pressure in the middle while Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes rush the passer.  This helped put the Bills in as the 4^th best defense against the pass last season.  At quarterback, Buffalo selected E.J. Manuel last season and he was solid, but unspectacular before getting injured.  They just signed Kyle Orton as the backup, but if Manuel can’t get the ball downfield to Watkins, look for Orton to actually get some playing time.

            Last, and probably least, are the lowly New York Jets.  Foot aficionado Rex Ryan now has dog enthusiast Michael Vick as the backup QB to Geno Smith.  Per Matthew Berry, Geno actually had more “Stud” (top 10 of the week) fantasy performances than Russell Wilson, Collin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III last season.  He did come on strong at the end of the year and does have a new number one target with Eric Decker.  However, I think Decker will be hard-pressed to repeat his performance from the past couple of seasons with Peyton Manning and Geno will feel the New York media on his back about Michael Vick possibly playing.  The first week of the year against Oakland is about as close to a must-win game as the first game of the year can be.  Following the Raiders’ game, the Jets travel to Green bay, get Chicago and Detroit at home, travel to San Diego, get Denver at home, then head to New England for a Thursday night game.  You lose to Oakland and the Jets have an 0-7 start a strong possibility.