NFL Week 10 Picks

I think I am finding my groove with the season after a superb week to put me in a profit after the vig.  My upset of the week paid off big with the Jets manhandling the Saints offense.  Hopefully I can continue my winning ways using two different methods: guessing the lines and going against the consensus. I guess the lines before the come out to find out where I automatically see value.  I then look at the values compared to different levels of public consensus on games to see where Vegas is getting their money at.  It helps me see the sucker bets each week.  Once again, the home dog on Thursday night pays off.

Jaguars +14 over TITANS

The Jags could go 0-16 or 1-15, but they are not finishing with that terrible record against the number.  Right now, they are at 1-7, so I think they will start keeping it close.

PACKERS +1 over Eagles

Can Nick Foles throw for seven touchdowns again?  I think the Pack rallies around their fallen leader, and Eddie Lacy/James Starks give Chip Kelly a taste of his own running medicine.

Bills +3 over STEELERS

The Bills are a decent football team and E.J. Manuel comes back strong against a depleted Pittsburgh defense. 

Raiders +7.5 over GIANTS

I think Oakland bounces back against the hapless Giants.  Mini rant: both Eli Manning and Ben Rapelsberger are in danger of starting 2-7.  I dare someone to try and argue that either one of the teams around the two spare quarterbacks is any worse than the teams Romo has had to deal with, yet Tony’s worst season gets you a .500-record.  This is where ignorance on quarterback play says “well what about rings?”  Well what about the teams they had with them?  Yeah, Ben and Eli can win a Super Bowl having one of the best defenses in the league as well as having wide receivers bail them out with ridiculously huge catches.  I would take Romo over either one of them and the stats back it up.  Teams win Super Bowls, not single quarterbacks.

Rams +10 over COLTS

I feel like the Colts play close games every week and just let Andrew Luck win it in the end.  I think Luck is easily second in the MVP race to Peyton, and gaining ground every week.  The kid is a stud and is proving the early-doubters how much better he is than RG3.

FALCONS +4.5 over Seahawks

The public consensus is on Seattle big time, yet the line has moved towards Atlanta all week.  You know what that means?  The sucker bet of the week.  Atlanta has looked awful, but as a home dog against a Seattle team that has not exactly been blowing people out. 

RAVENS +1 over Bengals

I’m liking the home dogs this week, and the Bengals have big issues on defense.  Geno Atkins’ absence will be huge, so Ray Rice fantasy owners better not give up on him just yet. 

BEARS -1 over Lions

Jay Cutler comes back and swings the line 4 points.  This game is a complete toss-up in that I guessed the line perfectly, finding no value, and the public consensus came in with a lot of action before Cutler announced his plans to start.  I think I’ll take Chicago even though they are on a short week.

Panthers +7 over 49ERS

The two hottest teams outside of Kansas City are clashing with very similar styles.  Carolina’s defense has looked like the best in the league, however it has been against very sub-par competition.  Kaepernick has looked very below average after his fluky first game.  The league has figured him out, and Cam Newton shows who the best dual threat quarterback is in my upset of the week.

CARDINALS -2.5 over Texans

Case Keenum is looking like a definite upgrade at quarterback, but no Foster and a hobbled Tate is going to make Houston one-dimensional.  Arizona has a stout defense, and Patrick Peterson will take on Andre Johnson who will not have a 50-point fantasy performance again (Bitterness, yes).

CHARGERS +7 over Broncos

This will be very similar to the Dallas game, in which Peyton takes Denver on the road against another high-powered offense with a quarterback playing at the top of the league.  It feels like a massive shootout, so I will take the touchdown of value on the home dog.

SAINTS -6.5 over Cowboys

Everyone knows the stats already about the 400-yard passers, and how terrible the defense has been.  What I’m most worried about is how Dallas will defense Jimmy Graham and (if he plays) Darren Sproles.  Antonio Gates and Danny Woodhead are like off-brand versions of their Saints’ counterparts, and the latter two destroyed the Kiffin Cover-2.  Bruce Carter has not stepped up this season, and this situation will not help him.

Dolphins -2.5 over BUCCANEERS

Can Tampa Bay out-suck the Jaguars and somehow steal the number one pick?  I think that if they finish with the same record, Tampa would have the worse schedule strength.  An interesting development as either team needs a quarterback as well as a pass rusher.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Broncos/Chargers OVER 47, Cardinals +12.5, Panthers +17

Others I Like:

Cowboys/Saints OVER 43, Saints +3.5, Dolphins/Buccaneers UNDER 53, Chargers +17, Ravens +11, Bears +9

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 9-3-1

Overall: 72-62-4