2015 NFL Preview

So it has been a while since I have been on Dirkland because I have been writing over at SoCalledFantasyExperts.com. If you would like to check out all of my fantasy football and baseball articles, feel free to click here for my archive. Share and comment away!

Now that football season is back, I will still have my weekly picks on Dirkland, as SCFE does not want to steer towards 100% gambling just yet. I thought I would give a quick season preview with other season long prop bets first.

AFC East	Projected Record	Division Odds
New England Patriots	11 - 5	-600
Miami Dolphins	10 - 6	+350
Buffalo Bills	9 - 7	+400
New York Jets	6 - 10	+800

Was anyone really that surprised that Tom Brady got away with cheating?  I mean the franchise has been caught cheating more than the rest of the NFL combined with only minor punishments to show for it.

Nevertheless, this is still their division to win.  If anything, I’m probably too low on their win total as they will be in complete F-U mode the entire season.  The only divisional/wins bet I like is the Dolphins.  They have a sneaky good offense and will put up some points.  I wouldn’t deter you from taking the Jets under 7.5 wins either.

AFC North	Projected Record	Division Odds
Pittsburgh Steelers	9 - 7	+200
Baltimore Ravens	9 - 7	+110
Cincinnati Bengals	8 - 8	+160
Cleveland Browns	5 - 11	+1000

This whole division got the benefit of the doubt last season by playing the two weakest divisions, the NFC and AFC South.  That definitely ballooned their win totals as well as made them out to be better than they were.

With that said, I think the Steelers and Ravens are destined to tie at the top of the division again.  The 18^th tie-breaker will give the edge to Pitt.  I don’t like any of the division odds, but I do love the Browns under 6.5 wins.

AFC South	Projected Record	Division Odds
Indianapolis Colts	13 - 3	-550
Houston Texans	8 - 8	+370
Tennessee Titans	7 - 9	+2000
Jacksonville Jaguars	5 - 11	+1500

Surprise, surprise I like Indy to take the division.  The real surprise is I don’t mind laying the heavy odds.  If Andrew Luck is healthy, they win the South. Period.  So I will lay the $550 to win $100.

The other two bets I like are the Colts over 11 wins and the Titans over 5.5 wins.  The Colts for obvious reasons, and the Titans because I think Mariota has something.  They also have the weak division and get the play the NFC South, so I think the Titans will surprise a few teams.

AFC West	Projected Record	Division Odds
Denver Broncos	11 - 5	-180
San Diego Chargers	8 - 8	+270
Kansas City Chiefs	8 - 8	+280
Oakland Raiders	5 - 11	+1200

This is the toughest AFC division to figure out.  Naturally you would think the Broncos run away with it, but the Peyton injury possibility scares me.  I tentatively put them in the top spot.

There aren’t any bets I like because the odds on the Chargers/Chiefs are too low.  If they were closer to the +350 or +400 range, maybe I would be more in to them.  The problem seems to be that one of the two middle tier teams will break out, you just have no clue which one.

NFC North	Projected Record	Division Odds
Green Bay Packers	13 - 3	-300
Minnesota Vikings	9 - 7	+700
Detroit Lions	7 - 9	+550
Chicago Bears	4 - 12	+1400

Now here’s a division with some action I like!  I think the Packers run away with not only the division, but also the #1 seed in the playoffs.  I’ll gladly lay the $300 and take them over 11 wins because if Aaron Rodgers is healthy then they win both.

I also like the Vikings to have over 8.5 wins.  Teddy Bridgewater looks like the real deal and now he has AP plus more receiving threats.  The Bears seem like a solid bet to finish under 6.5 wins as their defense is atrocious, their running back has got a lot of miles on him, their #1 receiver (Alshon) is gimpy, and their #2 (Kevin White) receiver is out for the season.

NFC South	Projected Record	Division Odds
Atlanta Falcons	10 - 6	+165
Carolina Panthers	7 - 9	+250
New Orleans Saints	7 - 9	+115
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5 - 11	+550

Most of the time I am using trends and math to come up with my betting picks.  However, I just have a feeling about this Atlanta team.  Their offense is too explosive not to and it has a lot to do with Tevin Coleman.  I am all-in on Coleman as I have him in almost everyone one of my double-digit fantasy football leagues.  I think he brings a new spark to their backfield that they have sorely missed since Michael Turner was still viable.

I like the Falcons to easily clear the over 8.5 wins and love getting money on their division odds.  The other three teams are a smorgasbord of issues: Carolina’s offensive weapons, New Orleans losing receivers, Tampa getting used to a rookie quarterback.  I will just leave them alone and take the known quantity to triumph.

NFC West	Projected Record	Division Odds
Seattle Seahawks	12 - 4	-500
St. Louis Rams	9 - 7	+550
Arizona Cardinals	8 - 8	+500
San Francisco 49ers	3 - 13	+1700

This division is actually very similar to the AFC South: I think the top team is so much better than the others that they are worth laying huge odds.  Seattle should win the division handily and I expect them to cover the over 11 wins.

The surprise for many will be San Francisco.  I love them at under 6.5 wins.  When you lose half of your defensive starters as well as your head coach and you were a team built on defense and leadership then you got BIG problems.  Kaepernick will disappoint yet again, and Christian Hackenberg will be quarterbacking San Francisco next season.

NFC East	Projected Record	Division Odds
Dallas Cowboys	9 - 7	+125
Philadelphia Eagles	9 - 7	-115
New York Giants	7 - 9	+350
Washington Redskins	4 - 12	+900

Let me be clear, I am not saying the Cowboys are the far and away champion of the division.  However, I do like them getting odds to win it, when it is a virtual coin flip between them and Philly.  I can definitely see this coming down to an obscure tie-break procedure to decide the champion.

With that said, you have to love the Redskins under 6 wins.  I mean seriously, does anyone think this terrible team has 6 wins in them?  The rest of the division will cannibalize like it does every year so I will leave the other win totals alone.

AFC Playoff Seeds	NFC Playoff Seeds
1. Indianapolis Colts	1. Green Bay Packers
2. New England Patriots	2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Denver Broncos	3. Atlanta Falcons
4. Pittsburgh Steelers	4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Miami Dolphins	5. Philadelphia Eagles
6. Baltimore Ravens	6. Minnesota Vikings

Wild Card Round: Broncos over Ravens; Dolphins over Steelers; Falcons over Vikings; Eagles over Cowboys

Divisional Round: Colts over Dolphins; Patriots over Broncos; Packers over Eagles; Falcons over Seahawks

Conference Championships: Colts over Patriots; Packers over Falcons

Super Bowl XL: Green Bay Packers 31 – Indianapolis Colts 27

Last year I nailed my Super Bowl Champion in the pre-season, and I have a good feeling about this one as well.  Jordy Nelson’s injury hurts the Pack a little, but when you have the best player on the planet then you have the edge.  Don’t sleep on the Falcons or Dolphins to make a deep run though, as both of their offenses have the firepower to hang with either Green Bay or Indy.

Pre-Season Prop Bets

Super Bowl Odds: Atlanta +3500, Miami +1700

My two Super Bowl picks are sitting at +500 and +700 respectively so the odds are not strong.  I do like my two long shots, especially the Falcons’ odds.

Player with Most Passing Yards: Matt Ryan +700, Tom Brady +3000

I already stated my love for the Falcons this year, and the Brady odds are still out of whack.

Player with Most Receiving Yards: Julio Jones +550, Antonio Brown +500

I feel like it is only going to be one of these two, so then you are getting decent odds.

Player with Most Rushing Yards: Lamar Miller +2000

Jeremy Hill had good odds but he got bet too low.  Miller is worth a flier at twenty to one.

Total Touchdown Passes: Matt Ryan OVER 27.5; Ryan Tannehill OVER 25.5; Sam Bradford OVER 24.5

All three of these totals just feel too low.

Total Receiving Touchdowns: Odell Beckham Jr. OVER 9.5; Jimmy Graham OVER 8.5; Julio Jones OVER 9.5

As the only red-zone threat on each team, I think they each get double digit TD’s.

Thursday Night Pick:

PATRIOTS -7 over Steelers

Brady starts his revenge tour against Goodell.

I will be keeping track of The Opposite Theory again this season.  TOT is when one team is coming off of not covering the spread against another team that did cover the previous week.  It hit at a remarkably high rate last season and I expect it to again.  The basis is that the line is set too far the opposite way due to the public’s recent bias.

Last Season: 122-97-2

The Opposite Theory: 37-19

Super Bowl Pick and Props

            I am on a two-year run of really seeing the flow of the Super Bowl after picking Flacco to pick apart the 49ers and the Seahawks to use their defensive line to get pressure on Manning and force him into mistakes.  Many pundits, analysts, and amateurs alike are all talking about how close of a game this year is and that it is one of the best overall matchups in a while.  People are even going as far as to say that no one “knows” who is going to win, it is all just a guess.

            Newsflash: almost every NFL game is a “guess”.  The best handicappers in the world play in the LVH SuperContest where they put thousands of dollars on the line to pick whichever five NFL games a week they want against the spread.  The winner every year barely cracks 70% and the majority fall below 50% of correctly picked games.  In reality, outside of a major hot streak the preeminent handicappers will only hit 60% with NFL games (all of this is against the spread, which is all that should matter).  The parity of talent is just too strong that if the winner of this game plays the first-pick-holding Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a neutral field, they probably only win seven or so times, and cover about half of the time. 

            When picking a single NFL game I do not worry about who would win the single game: I look more for who will cover more if they played ten times on that same field.  In a single game you can have pass interference go for or against you in the biggest of situations, or one of the greatest catches in NFL Playoff history not count (yes I am still bitter, and yes that is why I haven’t written the past couple of weeks).  Any two NFL teams are too close in talent to factor in what could happen in a single game, so I focus on what should happen. 

            The perfect example is the safety to open the game last year.  What if the center doesn’t spazz out on the first series of the game and Denver drives down and scores?  Could the outcome have been drastically different?  Two years ago, there were a couple of questionable blocks on the Jacoby Jones touchdown return as well as a disputed no-call on Crabtree at the end of the game.  If either of these go the other way, then San Francisco probably wins that game.  The point is that if one of these fluky things had gone the other way then should turns into could.  That is just the way of the NFL and is what makes it so great.  At the same time, I will still offer my opinion on what should happen Sunday night and make a firm stance on which team will win the game.

When Seattle Has the Ball:

            The most prevalent misconception about the actual gameplay for this Super Bowl is the age-old false causation, “If you run the ball well on the Patriots then you can beat them.”  Running the ball does not cause wins, winning the game causes rushing the football (just as losing will call a lack of rushing attempts). 

            The Patriots have won eleven games by a touchdown or more this season, and in all but one of them the other team failed to rush for 92 yards (the one exception being a fluky Chicago game in which they were down by 31 at the half and just handed it off to end the game as quickly as possible).  In six of those wins New England had a halftime lead of 10 or more, and 17 or more in five of them.  When you are down that much at the half to a high-scoring offense, odds are slim that there will be many rushes in the second half.  In the other blowout wins by the Patriots they pulled away early in the third quarter to give a similar flow to the game with an average final margin of almost three touchdowns. 

            When teams have rushed for more than 100 yards this season (seven times not including Chicago) against New England, the opponent had either a half time lead or final winning margin of a at least a touchdown.  Once again, the flow of the game dictates that the opponents were rushing the ball and not that it was more effective.  In fact, of the top-5 rushing outputs against the Patriots this season, three were New England wins.

What This Means:

            I think Marshawn Lynch will be effective running the ball on Sunday.  I do not think that this effectiveness will lead to many points.  New England’s defense is sneakily staunch.  They have played nine of their last ten games against teams with non-losing records and only once has an opponent scored more than 26 points, with a 17.4 point average.  That stretch includes four games against top-5 scoring offenses (including the top 2) with an average yield of just 14 points.  New England should stop Seattle’s offense and keep them under 20 points.

When New England Has the Ball:

            Seattle has had the best defense in the league for three years running now, and quite possibly one of the best in the last 15 years.  Everyone knows about their vaunted secondary of mostly late round picks that have jelled together to put fear in opposing receivers as the Legion of Boom.  How will the hyped passing attack of New England be able to complete any passes against such a firm secondary? 

            The Seahawks led the league in every opposing passing and receiving category imaginable except one: tight end production.  Seattle actually gave up the third most touchdowns to tight ends of any team in the league.  They also were in the middle of the pack in yards, and in the bottom quarter in catch percentage.  When facing the elite level of tight end offenses led by the best in the game (Antonio Gates, Julius Thomas and Jason Witten), Seattle gave up 5.7 catches for 57.3 yards and 2.3 touchdowns a game.  Let that sink in for a minute….

            So against elite tight ends, Seattle gave up MORE THAN TWO TOUCHDOWNS a game this season.  Now they face the best tight end in the league that happens to hold the record for most touchdowns over the first two seasons in a career as well as the most touchdowns in a single season by any tight end in NFL history.  Seattle obviously knows these stats as well, so what will they do to remedy it?

            The Seahawks make their money on playing a single high safety look with basically one-on-one on the outside.  They can do this because they have the best free safety in the league, Earl Thomas, and the best lockdown corner Richard Sherman.  This flexibility combined with a strong front four that can get pressure without a blitz (as noted last year) allows the other four defensive players to play with a great deal of freedom.  Usually, there will only be two receivers in their area to cover for the four defenders which allows strong safety Kam Chanchellor to take chances on big hits.  Whenever a more athletic/wily tight end is on the field, he has been able to take advantage of these risky moves.

            With the size of the Patriots receivers, Seattle would normally be able to get away with putting Byron Maxwell on Edelman and the backup corners Tharold Simon and Jeremy Lane on Amendola/LaFell leaving Sherman to match up with Gronkowski.  Not only does Seattle not like to match up, but the injuries to Sherman and Thomas make them less of physical threats than they are normally.  I believe that they are down playing the significance of those injuries and we will see the evidence Sunday night.

What This Means:

            I think Gronk is going to have a big day.  Chancellor does not have the chops to keep up with him in the open field, Bobby Wagner will not have the speed to stay with his deceiving quickness, and Sherman/Thomas cannot play physical enough with him because of injuries.  He will have to be the focus of the back seven, which will open up lanes for LaGarrette Blount to pick up chunks of yardage.     

What It All Comes Down To:

            I think New England’s defense will once again get Brady a Super Bowl Ring.  Brady has two Super Bowl MVP’s to his name thanks to the best defense/coach in the league, and a third championship thanks to Deion Branch’s career day.  When he is the focal point I do not think they are a Super Bowl Champion team.  Luckily this season he is third to Gronk and the defense, in that order.  New England has an “Us Against the World” mentality because they were caught cheating, AGAIN (which will be a whole different post), and they ride that wave with Rob Gronkowski steering the ship. 

New England 24 – Seattle 16

SUPER BOWL PROP BETS

UNDER 48.5

As I have already mentioned, New England has not given up more than 26 points in their last ten games; well the Seahawks have not given up more than 24 in their last 12 games.  Both teams have played great offenses such as Green Bay, Denver, San Diego, etc., in that time period.  I love the under here.

Will a team score 3 consecutive times?  YES

This has happened in the last three Super Bowls, five of the last six, and 14 of the last 19.  I could easily see a field goal-touchdown-field goal combo, which would only yield 13 points and not be too drastic.

Tom Brady’s First Pass: Completion

The odds are against you a little bit on this one with the vig, but look for the Patriots to get something quick and easy to start Brady off on the right foot.  The worst thing possible would be an opening interception, so Josh McDaniels will keep it safe.

Super Bowl MVP: Rob Gronkowski +1200

So a $100 bet gets you $1300 back if Gronk wins the MVP.  I consider it a 25% chance that if the Patriots win, he is the MVP.  I think they are more than a 50% chance to win the game, so by those odds you are getting $200 of value.

Rob Gronkowski Receiving Yards OVER 79.5, Receptions OVER 5.5, -135 to score a touchdown, first reception yards OVER 9.5

As you can see, I’m all-in on Gronk.

Will there be a Roughing the Passer Penalty? YES +140

Between the two Superstar-level quarterbacks, if there is a hard hit that flag will come out.  The last thing the league needs is more concussion talk, so look for a quick trigger on personal foul penalties.

Ryan Allen shortest punt UNDER 36 yards

A punt to the 12-yard line of New England from the 47-yard line going in?  Thank you.

Total score by Tiger Woods in the first round of The Masters vs. Julian Edelman Receiving yards: Tiger’s score

Dude shot an 82 yesterday, with a 44 on the front nine.

LeGarrette Blount Rushing Attempts OVER Minutes of Silva/Diaz UFC Fight

The max amount of minutes for the fight is 15, which is the over/under for Blount’s attempts.  So the max for one, is the average for the other?  Value. 

Idina Menzel’s National Anthem: UNDER 2 minutes 2 seconds

That is an obscenely long anthem, and I don’t think she will “let it go” that long.

How many times will Katy Perry be mentioned in the first half? OVER 2

Seems too easy.  Just two mentions of the half time show and I push? 

Katy Perry’s first outfit: Skirt or Dress, -150

Just Google-image search her and look at the percentage of pictures of her performing in one of the two.