NFL Week 1 Picks and Pre-Season Predictions

And I’m back!! I know it hit a lull last season with my picks, but I promise to update each week this season. I took on a Senior writing position at So-Called Fantasy Experts and you can view all of my Fantasy Football advice here.

I will have three weekly articles: RB rankings reactions, Start/Sit, and a Sunday morning game preview. Please check them out each week.

This space will be strictly for gambling purposes. I will give you my picks for every NFL game against the spread, along with a best bet and a teaser. I’ll also give you some pre-season predictions, because I mean who doesn’t love those?

Let’s get started shall we!

AFC

East	Wins	Losses
New England	11	5
N.Y. Jets	8	8
Buffalo	7	9
Miami	6	10

Even with Brady’s suspension, the rest of the division is just not good enough. The Jets played about as well as they could last season, and still couldn’t touch the Patriots. They bring the same team back and are due for some regression.

Tyrod Taylor might have something, but the defense has taken a step back. I had a lot of Ryan Tannehill shares in Fantasy Football last season that all went to waste.

North	Wins	Losses
Pittsburgh	11	5
Cincinnati	9	7
Baltimore	9	7
Cleveland	4	12

As it is every year, the AFC North is the hardest division to predict. I am going with the Steelers because I think the Hue Jackson loss will hurt the Bengals more than people think. Pittsburgh still has easily the best QB, RB, and WR in the division, and their defense has gotten slightly better.

I think Baltimore bounces back, but not quite enough to make the playoffs. Cleveland’s offense will be Fantasy worthy this season, but their defense is still trash.

South	Wins	Losses
Indianapolis	9	7
Houston	9	7
Jacksonville	7	9
Tennessee	5	11

This could sway very easily if Andrew Luck cannot stay on the field again. If he does, I think they edge out the Texans for the division title. Jacksonville is lurking, but I think they are a year away from their defense being ready.

Tennessee’s exotic smash-mouth will be worth watching and betting the under on. However, the same theme as the last few teams their defense is not strong enough to really contend.

West	Wins	Losses
Chiefs	9	7
Broncos	9	7
Raiders	8	8
Chargers	6	10

Even with the win last night, I'm thinking Kansas City pulls out the division. The quarterback issues will be there for Denver.  Oakland will knock on the door of the post-season, but come up just short.

NFC

East	Wins	Losses
Giants	9	7
Redskins	8	8
Cowboys	8	8
Eagles	5	11

This division race could be decided in the first week of the season. If Dak Prescott and the Cowboys can pull out the win Sunday, then I think they end up as the division champs by way of an easy schedule. I don’t think that will happen though, so I’m siding with the Giants by default.

Kirk Cousins is not that good, and he will be found out this season. I have said this before about other quarterbacks such as Robert Griffin and Collin Kaepernick, so I think I’ll make the trifecta. The Eagles still suck and start Carson Wentz.

North	Wins	Losses
Packers	12	4
Lions	8	8
Vikings	8	8
Bears	6	10

Probably the easiest division to predict, even before Bridgewater’s injury. None of these teams can match up with a full-strength Packers’ squad, and even with the massive injuries last year Green Bay was really the best team.

I think Detroit will be better this season. Megatron will not be missed as much with Marvin Jones coming over and Matthew Stafford should be a better quarterback not focusing in on Calvin Johnson non-stop. Chicago just signed their whole offensive line off of cuts, so Jay Cutler will need a body bag.

South	Wins	Losses
Panthers	11	5
Falcons	8	8
Buccaneers	7	9
Saints	7	9

The Falcons were one of my surprise teams last year and they came out the gate firing. The problem I didn’t forsee is just how awful their defense was. They are still a wild card contender, due to the quarterback injuries with other teams.

The Buccaneers are a year away, and might have been closer had they not taken a kicker in the second round that has the yips. Drew Brees will drag the Saints to 6-7 wins, but no more.

West	Wins	Losses
Seahawks	11	5
Cardinals	11	5
Rams	7	9
49ers	3	13

Everrryyonnnnee is in on the Cardinals this year, which leads me to think Seattle will win the division. Carson Palmer was absolutely awful last year in that playoff game, and he’s not certain to come back mentally from that. The Seahawks found something with their high-flying passing offense at the end of last season, and I think they continue.

The Rams look to be mediocre as always after they drafted a quarterback first overall that can’t even play his way into the backup role. The 49ers are probably the least talented and worst team in the league. Enter Deshaun Watson.

Playoffs

Wild Card

Indianapolis over Cincinnati, Kansas City over Denver

Arizona over N.Y. Giants, Carolina over Detroit

Divisional

New England over Indianapolis, Pittsburgh over Kansas City

Green Bay over Arizona, Seattle over Carolina

Conference Championships

Pittsburgh over New England

Green Bay over Seattle

Super Bowl LI

Green Bay 27 – Pittsburgh 21

Super Bowl MVP

Aaron Rodgers

Regular Season MVP

Aaron Rodgers

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Ezekiel Elliott

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Myles Jack

Week 1 Picks

Panthers -3 over BRONCOS

I gave out this pick last night to start my season on a losing note! But I will usually Tweet my Thursday pick, so follow me for it, @Tomlin3 .

Buccaneers +2.5 over FALCONS

Jameis starts the year strong against the terrible Falcons’ defense.

TITANS +2.5 over Vikings

I’ll take a home dog against a backup quarterback.

Browns +3.5 over EAGLES

RG3 against Carson Wentz… I’ll take the points.

JETS +2.5 over Bengals

The absence of Hue Jackson will take Cincy some getting used to.

Raiders +1.5 over SAINTS

Oakland is just a flat-out better team than New Orleans, and this line should be switched.

Chargers +7 over CHIEFS

I like Kansas City this year, but that’s too many points for back-door cover Philip Rivers.

Bills +3 over RAVENS

The questions in the Baltimore backfield have me worried to start the year, but it will get figured out.

Bears +6 over TEXANS

This line just feels a few points too high. It should be a low-scoring game, so I’ll take the value.

JAGUARS +5 over Packers

Blake Bortles is king of the garbage time, and I think he sneaks in a cover here.

Dolphins +10 over SEAHAWKS

This feels like that Week 1 game that could kill thousands of elimination/survivor pools.

COWBOYS PK over Giants

In Dak we trust…. I think.

Lions +3 over COLTS

I have the Lions contending for a playoff spot, and this would be a huge win towards that.

Patriots +7 over CARDINALS

I’ll take points with Bill Belichick no matter who is playing quarterback.

REDSKINS +3 over Steelers

I don’t think Washington will be that great, but the Steelers will not be in top form for a few weeks.

49ERS +2.5 over Rams

I’m not sure that Los Angeles should be a road favorite over anyone with their quarterbacks.

10-Point Teaser of the Week: Seahawks PK, Saints/Raiders OVER 41, Cowboys/Giants OVER 36

Others I Like: Jaguars +15, Texans/Bears UNDER 54, Bears +16, Patriots +17, Chargers +17, Titans/Vikings UNDER 51

Best Bets: Patriots +7, Browns +3.5, Saints/Raiders OVER 51

This Week: 0-1

Season: 0-1

Super Bowl 50 Preview and Props

Every year I have to reiterate the same point: I hate the people that try to make a “pick” on the Super Bowl but do not actually take a stance. If you are going to go out of your way to have your selection for the winner of the game published in any capacity then please actually pick a team.

Nevertheless, it’s the same story every year. “I think that Carolina will blow them out by four touchdowns… but I also think that Peyton good make it a close game and pull out the win in the last minute.” Is that making a prediction or being a waffler?

Anyone can say that “so-and-so might win but it will be a close game that could go either way.” Every single game in the NFL can go “either way.” The parity is so prevalent that the worst team in the league can beat the best team in the league at least 2 or 3 out of 10 times.

So with that said, I am going to make a full game analysis and decide on which team I am predicting to win and whether or not the spread will be covered (another massive pet peeve of mine, the “I think this team will win, but the other will cover” when it’s less than a touchdown spread).

Super Bowl L Preview

This game is getting predominantly compared to the Broncos/Seahawks Super Bowl since you have the Peyton Manning-led Denver team against a young squad led by a dual-threat quarterback with a (seemingly) staunch defense headed by a brash cornerback.

However, I see it completely differently. That Denver team did not have the dominant, league-leading defense that this year’s version fields. The combination of Vonn Miller and Demarcus Ware rushing the passer is unmatched in the NFL at this moment. Aqib Talib has added a shutdown corner to the mix, and the linebackers that were young and inexperienced in 2014 are now solid producers.

The offense is different as well. The 2014 Broncos had Peyton Manning’s all-time single season record for yards and touchdowns at the helm. This year’s group is led by the noodle-armed version of the greatest quarterback of all time (in my opinion) who threw significantly more interceptions than touchdowns in his brief season.

The Panthers are not exactly what that Seattle team played as either. Cam Newton and Russell Wilson play a similar style, but Cam still provides more of a bruising, goal-line type running game while Wilson gave the back-breaking scrambles. The Carolina defense gets a bit over-valued because it has stars.

Yes, the Panthers gave up the fewest points in the league, but the offenses they faced had quite a bit to do with that. Luke Kuechly is dominant and Josh Norman has developed into an elite corner. However I am not sold on their pass rush (especially without Jared Allen) and the rest of the secondary is nowhere near what the Legion of Boom brought to the table.

When Denver Has the Ball:

Who would have thought that Peyton Manning would be at the helm of a ball-control, more western than west coast style offense with a plethora of short screens and outs to complement the running game? Still, that is where we are, and he has actually looked quite proficient in this role the past couple of playoff games.

Yes, Peyton got benched in the middle of the season, but I think that injury had a lot to do with it. The mistakes he was making early in the year have not shown up in the playoffs. The best way to make him make those mistakes is a ferocious pass rush, sort of like how Kansas City did in the game that got Manning “benched”. That is something I really do not see with this Panthers team.

C.J. Anderson has the bad stigma of being one of the most over-valued and over-hyped players in Fantasy Football history (however if you listened to my advice, he was not on a single one of your teams.) However, the combination of him and Ronnie Hillman is a solid 1-2 punch running behind a deceivingly good run-blocking offensive line. That line is led by the super-human strength of former Red Raider Louis Vasquez and will give Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis’ broken arm all they can handle.

The real problem I see with the Broncos offense is the Red Zone. They have had their issues previously and now they face one of the best Red Zone defenses in the league. In his entire career Peyton Manning has had specific roles for players in his offense. The main target (Marvin Harrison/Reggie Wayne, Demaryius Thomas), the secondary option (Reggie Wayne, Eric Decker, Emmanuel Sanders), the slot third option (Brandon Stokley, Anthony Gonzalez, Wes Welker) and a solid, two-way pass catching tight end (Dallas Clark, Julius Thomas).

I see two of those options having massive holes: the third option and tight end. Cody Latimer and the other Broncos’ wide-outs outside of Thomas/Sanders cannot fill that void. Denver traded for Vernon Davis to complement Owen Daniels, but I don’t see either of them being able to get away from Kuechly. That leads me to believe that the Broncos will have even more Red Zone troubles.

More importantly, Carolina has had the ability to get big, early leads on almost every opponent recently. If that goes down on Sunday, then Peyton will have to play come-from-behind football, which is not his forte anymore. If that does happen and Manning has to force the ball downfield a little bit, then the ball-hawking secondary for Carolina is in its best situation and continues to force turnovers at its league-leading level.

When Carolina Has the Ball:

Carolina not only led the league in points allowed, but scored the most points as well. Cam Newton has taken a few major strides in both passing and decision making over the past year, turning himself into one of the upper-echelon guys at the position. The most impressive part is he has done this without his best weapon, Kelvin Benjamin, all season.

Newton has been throwing to the likes of Ted Ginn, Philly Brown, Devin Funchess and Jericho Cotchery at the wide receiver position, yet still threw for 35 touchdowns. The biggest reason has been Greg Olsen. Olsen has become the second best tight end in the league, and I would make a strong case that I would take 16 games of Olsen over 12 games of Gronk every year.

The rushing game has been just as impressive as Carolina has now rushed for more than 100 yards in 31 straight games. Jonathan Stewart has made the most of his opportunity as a bell-cow type running back, and seems to be fully healthy. The stable behind him of Cameron Artis-Payne, Mike Tolbert and Fozzy Whitaker provide good change of pace options along with depth to help progress their running game.

Cam Newton is the head of all of this, with his amazing talents inside the 10-yard line to punch it in for the six. He has picked his spots at the perfect times, and has shed the previous hankering for taking off as soon as the pocket collapses at all.

With all that said, the Denver defense is getting the least credit of any league-best defense to make it to the Super Bowl. This team lead the league in sacks, and was not far behind Carolina in points allowed while allowing the fewest yards per game of any team in the league. It is nearly impossible to run the ball on this team and I think they will continue that while forcing the Panthers to throw the ball downfield.

So it seems like this might be a spot for Olsen to shine as the linebackers are stacking the box to stop the run.  However, the Broncos have both starting safeties back, and healthy which I figure one will be on Olsen at all times. This will put the emphasis clearly on the shaky hands of the Carolina receiving corps.

Special Teams:

A quick word about special teams after they decided the AFC Championship game: Brandon McManus will have to be a factor for Denver to win. He will be called upon to make some long field goals and it will be imperative that both him and Britton Colquitt keep the ball away from Ted Ginn.

Now should Ted Ginn get his hands on a couple of returns, all of a sudden this game could look like a couple of years ago when Percy Harvin had the highlight of his career against this Denver team.

The Pick

What it comes down to is that I think Carolina will get ahead early. Peyton will know to not make mistakes early on as they have killed him in Super Bowls past, meaning the Panthers will have the opportunity to go for the early kill shots. I see them getting up double digits early and forcing Manning into bad situations. Manning, in bad situations, with two of his four main options not fulfilled, and a noodle arm is bad news.

Cam Newton will take the early shots down the field and I think his inspiration and leadership has his receivers in the right mindset to make the big plays. Cam Newton seems like a near lock for the MVP should Carolina win, but we will get to prop bets in a second. As much as it pains me to say it, I have to think Manning goes out to pasture as a loser. Carolina 27 – Denver 17

SUPER BOWL PROP BETS

These props are in no particular order as I am just going down the list of nearly 400.

Alternate Point Spread: Panthers -17.5, +475

I think Carolina is going to get up early and this could turn into more of a blowout than even I expect. The odds are strong here getting nearly 5 to 1 on your money.

*Will either team score 3 straight times? Yes, -175

One of my favorites every year, but especially this year as Carolina could get out to an early 13-0 lead with three scores, or Denver will have three scores in a row to come back from a big deficit.

Total QB Sacks for both teams: OVER 5.0, +110

The Broncos average over three a game and Carolina averages two. Throw in the fact that Carolina has not seen a pass rush as strong as these two (Miller/Ware), and Peyton will take a few sacks to avoid fumbles/interceptions and I love this number.

Shortest TD of game: OVER 1.5 yards, EVEN

You basically need a pass interference in the end zone to get less than a yard with these two, so I will take my chances at even money.

*Will Peyton Manning throw an interception? Yes, -220

Trust me, it is worth the vig. He has not thrown one in the playoffs yet, but as I said, I see it as Denver playing come from behind and him forcing throws.

*Team to Score first? Panthers, -140

As I said, you need to go with how you see the game flowing, and I think the Panthers get out to an early lead.

Total Field Goals made, both teams: OVER 3.5, +105

I don’t see the Broncos solving the Red Zone issues, so this seems safe.

Longest TD of the Game: OVER 43.5 yards, -110

I think one of the Panthers’ receivers gets loose for a big one, but no clue which one. If you have a good hunch, they would be a good bet for over yards, touchdown scored, and MVP consideration.

Will the Panthers score a TD in the first quarter? Yes, +120

Once again, I like them to get out to an early lead.

*Total interceptions, both teams: OVER 1.5, -230

The vig is super high, but Peyton may pass this number by himself in the second half.

Total number of players to have a pass attempt: OVER 2.5, +175

You have a fragile, old quarterback against a signal caller who runs more than almost any other quarterback. Very likely a backup plays, and even more likely a trick play happens.

*Will Cam Newton score a TD? Yes, +140

He will want to do his dance if they get close, so you can guarantee he calls his own number.

Total Rushing+Receiving yards for Fozzy Whitaker: OVER 5.5, -110

Look for Carolina to split touches with their platoon of backs and this can be done in one touch.

Total number of Panthers with a rush attempt: OVER 4.5, +130

Goes with the last prop.

*Will the Panthers get a rushing touchdown: Yes, -200

This seems too easy and too low of a number… maybe a sucker bet.

Total tackles Luke Kuechly: OVER 8.5, -110

Denver will try to establish the run early before throwing short, meaning Kuechly will get a lot of chances.

Total receptions for Emmanuel Sanders: OVER 5.0, -110

With Norman on Thomas, Sanders should get a lot of looks.

Total points for Brandon McManus: OVER 7.5, -110

Field goals should be aplenty for the Denver kicker.

*Total field goals for Brandon McManus: OVER 1.5, -110

Field goals should be aplenty for the Denver kicker.

Total tackles for Von Miller (sacks not included): UNDER 3.5, -110

Miller is not a strong run defender, so this could come down to whether certain plays are “sacks” or “rushes”.

*More Points: Brandon McManus +0.5 over Graham Gano, +120

Field goals should be aplenty for the Denver kicker.

Who will have more: Total score of the first half -1.5 over Lakers/Spurs margin of victory, -110

Like I said, Panthers up early, more points in the first half.

Stephen Curry 3-Point field goals made PK over Greg Olsen receptions, +110

Olsen’s over/under is at 5, and Stephen made 7 in the first quarter the other night, on pace for almost 6 a game.

Demarcus Cousins points+rebounds -6.5 over Owen Daniels receiving yards, -110

Cousins will go off against the Celtics, and Daniels might have a lot of Luke Kuechly in his way.

Panthers/Broncos FG’s Made +0.5 over DeAndre Jordan made FT’s, +120

He’s shooting well under 50% so he will have to take more than 11 or 12 to come close to the amount of field goals I see made.

Denver Sacks -0.5 over Rory McIlroy holes over par, +150

This is the Dubai Desert Classic where McIlroy should have a strong score. I think Denver gets four or five sacks, so this should be easy.

Number of Panthers with Rushing Attempt PK over Goals in Manchester United/Chelsea game, -120

Like I said previously, I think five different Panthers could get a rush, and I don’t see that many goals in the premiership game.

*Panthers/Broncos FG’s made +0.5 over Rounds in Hendricks/Thompson fight, -110

I think Hendricks could end that fast, and even if the fight goes the distance, you would need four field goals or less.

MVP of Super Bowl 50:

*Cam Newton 5/7

It’s a good hedge bet.

Luke Kuechly 25/1

He has had plenty of pick sixes lately, and one here could do the trick. At these odds, I love it.

Ted Ginn 25/1

One deep touchdown and a couple of really good returns is worth the long shot.

Devin Funchess 100/1

Say he gets on the receiving end of a couple of the big plays the Panthers will have to throw… these odds are worth a very small bet.

Vonn Miller 25/1; Demarcus Ware 100/1

Worth a shot to hedge the Carolina bet. One of them will have to dominate to make this game close.

The ten props with the * next to them are my best bets. Another strong, safe bet is a two-team, 7-point teaser, Carolina +1.5 and UNDER 53. Good hunting!

NFL Week 4 Picks

Quick picks this week since I’m celebrating my 1-year anniversary to my amazing wife.

Ravens -2.5 over STEELERS

Good thing I got this TOT game in at 2.5.

Jets +1.5 over Dolphins

I have no idea why the Dolphins are favored.

Jaguars +9.5 over COLTS

I locked this bet in before the Andrew Luck news.

Texans +6.5 over FALCONS

Buy the half point and roll with Watt.

BUCCANEERS +3 over Panthers

Carolina does not seem like a good enough team to be 4-0.

BILLS -5 over Giants

Buffalo might be really good.

BEARS +3.5 over Raiders

Oakland as a road favorite? Get out of here. TOT game.

REDSKINS +3 over Eagles

I think Philadelphia deserves the same questioning of road favoritism. TOT game.

Chiefs +3.5 over BENGALS

The Chiefs have started with a BRUTAL schedule (@ Houston, Denver, @Green Bay) and I think their lines are skewed. TOT game.

Browns +7 over CHARGERS

I like the backdoor potential.

49ERS +7 over Packers

You almost always have to take a home dog of a TD or more. TOT game.

Vikings +7 over BRONCOS

The real play is the under.

Rams +7 over CARDINALS

At some point Arizona won’t cover…. TOT game.

Cowboys +3 over SAINTS

TOT game.  I don’t feel good about it.

Lions +10 over SEAHAWKS

I have a bad feeling about this one, but it’s a TOT game.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Packers +3, Broncos/Vikings UNDER 54, and Seahawks PK

Others I Like:

Saints +7, Saints/Cowboys UNDER 59, Redskins +13, Bills +5, Jets +11.5, Bears/Raiders UNDER 55

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Gary Barnidge, TE, Cleveland Browns

This guy has stud potential and no matter who is playing at QB for Cleveland they will be checking down to him.  Still owned in less than 40% of leagues, jump on it now.

This Week: 1 – 0

Last Week:  6 – 10

Season: 22 – 26 - 1

TOT Last Week: 4 - 4

TOT Season: 7 – 8