Sunday, December 9, 2012

NFL Week 14 Picks


I had a rough one last week, going 7-8-1, but I hit on two of my three teasers to salvage an even week.  The Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest is not giving as solid of trends as I had wanted.  Every aspect that I had been looking at crept back to even or just about last week.  The home dog by more than a touchdown was 1-0-1, but I did pick against that Thursday because the Raiders just suck. 

REDSKINS -2.5 over Ravens
The opposite theory has definite strength here, as the Redskins played one of their best games last week and Baltimore played one of its worst.  However, the world does not favor the Cowboys destiny ever since Jerry made his deal with the devil to win that last Super Bowl, and Dallas needs the Redskins to lose, so they certainly will not.

Chiefs +7 over BROWNS
Cleveland favored by a touchdown over a professional team?  I mean I know they have been playing well the past month or so, but seven is an awful lot.  Kansas City could have a sharp emotional backlash, but I am not sure that the Browns have an offense powerful enough to safely win a game by more than a touchdown.

Chargers +8 over STEELERS
Big Ben is back, but how healthy is he?  Charlie Batch screwed me last week showing either the depth of Pittsburgh or the ineptitude of Baltimore.  Either way, I do not think Ben will be near 100%, so I will take the touchdown+ of points.

COLTS -5 over Titans
Andrew Luck is starting to figure it all out, and at home in a dome is a perfect setup for a monster game.  Tennessee is reeling since their domination of the Dolphins, and they already lost to Luck two months ago at home.

JAGUARS +3 over Jets
I still am refusing to pick the Jets.  Especially when Mark Sanchez is still starting.  Also, especially when I can get a home dog getting a field goal.

Bears -3 over VIKINGS
I started typing the Vikings as the pick, then I remembered that I should not abandon the Bears; bandwagon just yet.  No Urlacher or Jennings could lead to AP having a huge game against the depleted defense. 

PANTHERS +3 over Falcons
Carolina was a last Cam Newton fumble away from beating Atlanta a few weeks ago, and that was in the Georgia Dome.  Cam has been on fire the past two weeks and the Falcons just do not really blow people out that often.  I will take the home dog and the points.

Eagles +8 over BUCS
I know, this pick does not make sense to me either.  Bryce Brown will have another huge game and Nick Foles actually looked quite competent last week.  Philly will be the prime candidate for a backdoor cover the rest of the season.  Also, the Eagles are the worst team in the league against the spread at 2-9-1 and Tampa is the best at 9-3.  Teams do not finish that bad/good against the number, so regression is due.

Rams +3 over BILLS
I am not buying into Buffalo, and taking a little of the opposite theory here.  I am also taking The Leg, Greg Zuerlein to kick another game winner from 50+, this time in the frigid atmosphere of Buffalo.

BENGALS -3.5 over Cowboys
As I said, God is not in the Cowboys’ favor right now.

Dolphins +10.5 over 49ERS
There is definitely some blowout potential, but I think this could be the end of Colin Kaepernick.  Alex Smith is the best option for this team.  It is almost as if Jim Harbaugh forgot that Smith had this team in the Super Bowl, if not for a rookie returner muffing two punts.

GIANTS -5 over Saints
It is going to be cold and rainy slowing Drew Brees and the Saints down a bit.  Also, see Cowboys, Dallas.

Cardinals +10 over SEAHAWKS
Seattle and Russell Wilson are good at home, and the Cardinals are still playing quarterback roulette.  However, Arizona kept it close last week on the road and I think Larry Fitzgerald has one more monster game in him this season as an eff you to the management for having arena league-level quarterbacks throwing him the ball. 

Lions +7 over PACKERS
Greeen Bay is still far from healthy and they got pretty lucky against the Vikings that Christian Ponder sucks so badly.  Minnesota showed the Packers’ weakness against the run, so I see a lot of Mikel Leshoure and short screens to Megatron.  The money line of +250 on the Lions is mighty intriguing.

Texans+3.5 over PATRIOTS
This will be a playoff-like atmosphere, leading me to the odds that it will be decided by a field goal or less.  With that said, I will gladly take the half-point of value and hope that the Texans get up big in the first half so I can hedge the Patriots and over in the second half.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Texans +13.5, Eagles/Bucs Over 38, Steelers/Chargers Under 50

Others I Like:
Chiefs +17, Titans/Colts Over 37, Bears/Vikings Over 29, Panthers +13, Bengals +7, Saints/Giants Under 64

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 7-8-1

Overall: 107-78-5

Saturday, December 8, 2012

The Heisman: Valuable or Offensive?


Well it is Heisman Trophy season with only one college football game on today, so I thought I would dive into the race for the most prestigious award in college sports.  This has been a quite interesting season for the Heisman, as there have been three guys who were almost guaranteed to win the award at one point or another, yet not one of those three are in my top 4.

5.  Collin Klein, QB, Kansas State, Senior
2,490 yards, 15 TD, 7 INT, 66.2% 156.1 rating Passing; 890 yards, 22 TD, 4.6 AVG Rushing

The self-proclaimed “Optimus Klein” is the most over-rated football player around.  People think he is a dual threat quarterback who is also versatile.  He is not.  He makes pee-wee type reads in the passing game, and gets the benefit of the doubt of a great system, phenomenal offensive line, and receivers that get YAC like taking candy from a baby.  There were a number of times where Klein would run untouched into the end zone (I think about 5 were against the Red Raiders alone) because the defense was more worried about the running backs Kansas State has.  Perspective: Bryce Brown could not get on the field at K-State last season because their running back corps was so deep and talented.  Coming from an inside source who has played against Klein twice, the defense is not focused on Klein, as his girly like throwing motion will get him into trouble (See: Baylor game).  The defensive game plan was revolved around stopping the other running backs, and short screens.  Klein probably should not be on the list at all, but I really want to rant about how over-rated he is.

4. Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State, Sophomore
2,039 yards, 15 TD, 6 INT, 58.3%, 140.5 rating Passing; 1,271 yards, 13 TD, 5.6 AVG Rushing
           
If Ohio State were not on a post-season ban then Miller would probably be a favorite to win the award right now to most people (a major flaw in the system, as some people use Hype to vote on the award, rather than the most valuable player to his team).  Either way, Miller has to be on the short list for next season as he has seemingly mastered Urban Meyer’s offense in less than a year.  I honestly think that the key factor in the Buckeyes luring Urban Meyer in the first place was the prospect of getting to coach Braxton Miller for three seasons.
            Miller is actually comparing quite well to Tim Tebow’s sophomore season in which he did win the Heisman.  The passing numbers are not as close, but Miller also did not have to throw nearly as much as Tebow did that season.  What keeps Miller on the Tebow level is his running ability.  Tebow never rushed for over a thousand yards in a season and his touchdown totals were ballooned because the Gators did not have a goal-line back.  With a full off-season under his belt, I would have to tab Miller as my odds-on favorite to win the award next season no matter what happens with a certain Mr. Football.

3.   Marqise Lee, WR, USC, Sophomore
112 Catches, 1,680 yards, 14 TD, 15.0 AVG; 106 yards rushing, 8.8 AVG
           
Lee leads the nation in catches, is second in yards, and third in touchdowns.  No other receiver is in the top three in all the categories.  He has done this in the USC Pro-style offense, which does not sling the ball around nearly as much as West Virginia or Baylor.  Lee also passes the eye test: when you watch USC, every single play there is a hope that Lee gets the ball because every time he touches the ball there is a chance of something spectacular happening.  He definitely has the Reggie Bush x-factor.
            Lee also proved himself to be a team player, as he volunteered to play defense when the Trojans defensive backs were struggling so mightily.  The amount of double coverage he receiver helped Robert Woods have another solid year.  Lee would be a surefire top-10, maybe even top-5 pick if he were eligible for the draft this year.  So what that really means is that the most dynamic playmaker in the country will be back next year.

2.  Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M, Freshman
3,419 yards, 24 TD, 8 INT, 68.3%, 155.9 Rating Passing; 1,181 yards, 19 TD, 6.4 AVG Rushing
1.      Manti Te’o, LB, Notre Dame, Senior
101 Tackles, 46 Solo, 5.5 TFL, 2 Sacks, 7 Interceptions, 11 Passes Deflected, 1 Fumble Recovery

            Johnny Manziel/Football has dazzled in his first season at the helm of Kevin Sumlin and Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, breaking the all-time record for offense in the SEC set by Cam Newton a couple of years ago.  This accomplishment against the “vaunted” SEC defenses has voters just handing him the Heisman without really analyzing his season.
            First off, the offense that Sumlin/Kingsbury brought to A&M is the same offense that Texas Tech has been running for years.  You know, that offense where quarterbacks are labeled “system quarterbacks” so their statistics do not mean as much.  The main difference is with Manziel, they have added a running element to the quarterback position, which is a big upgrade.  However, Manziel’s passing numbers are not in the same league as the previous quarterbacks to run the offense.  By the logic that he should win the award this year, there should also then be a Heisman sitting on Graham Harrell’s mantle.
            This is where the SEC fans start ranting about how hard their conference is and how tough the defenses are.  Sorry to break it to you, but the SEC was actually quite top heavy this season, in terms of team and defense.  Manziel only had to face three top 48 defenses all season.  He also had the privilege of A&M’s atrocious non-conference schedule that included two FCS teams, SMU, and the worst defense in the country, Louisiana Tech.  In those four games Manziel put up 35% of his total yards for the season, and over 51% of his total touchdowns.  To delve even further into the statistics, against the top 48 defenses that the Aggies faced, Manziel only average 297 yards and a single touchdown per game. 
            Now I know that stats are not the end-all be-all when it comes to the Heisman, but the statistics let you in on the fact that A&M lost two of those three games against top defenses.  Manziel did have a brilliant performance to beat Alabama, but in the other two games he was far from good.  The first game against Florida was his first start ever, but the Heisman should not distinguish class, therefore every game counts the same.  The LSU game was just dreadful for Johnny Football as he turned the ball over three teams and did not produce a single touchdown.  So in the Aggies’ biggest three games of the year, Manziel was great in one, but bad in the other two.
            Manti Te’o on the other hand, has been the epitome of valuable to the number one team in the nation.  Te’o’s statistics alone put him in the Heisman conversation.  Over a hundred tackles and seven interceptions is unheard of for a middle linebacker.  It is hard to find stats from more than twenty or so years ago but from I could find, no linebacker has ever been in the top two in the nation for interceptions.  Some people have criticized his lack of fumble productivity and cited the artist formerly known as the Honey Badger.  Well I would argue that point by asking how many times the person had seen Te’o miss a tackle.  He is the best pure tackler to come along in years, and he uses near perfect form.  He does not just try to strip the ball as if it were a marijuana blunt.  He secures the tackle and ends the journey, like he is supposed to.
            Te’o’s real value goes beyond the statistics though.  If you go back and watch Notre Dame’s games, especially the ones later in the year, the opposing offenses would send at least two, sometimes three blockers at Te’o.  This opened up lanes for his fellow linebackers and allowed the Irish defensive lineman to go unblocked.  His presence alone caused offenses to not perform at their optimum level because they were so worried about Te’o blowing up their play.
            Most importantly, Te’o has come up big when his team needed him most.  Notre Dame has had five games that were close, and Te’o made the defining play in all of them.  Against a very under-rated Michigan team (do you realize they have four losses, but three were to the top three teams in the country?) he had two interceptions, one that iced the game.  Te’o led the goal line stand against top-ten team Stanford that secured the overtime victory.  He followed that win up with a key interception against BYU to hold on to the Irish victory.  The following week he had another game-icing interception on the road against top-10 Oklahoma.  The next week he led a goal-line stand against Pittsburgh in the only Irish close call against a bad team.  Lastly, he provided the signature goal-line stand against USC on the road to preserve the perfect record.
            While off-the-field issues do not factor into the Heisman race, Te’o’s off the field troubles translated into on-the-field success.  I mean the guy lost his girlfriend, and grandmother who was basically his mom within four days of each other, and still led his team to a victory over a top ten team, on the road.  His will to win and do so no matter what else is going on has translated to the rest of that team.  They see that their leader can fight through the worst things imaginable, so their focus was turned strictly to winning. 
I fully expect Johnny Football to be announced as the Heisman Trophy winner tonight.  I do not agree with it, and it should officially coincide with the changing of the specifications of the award to the best offensive player, rather than just best player.  I firmly believe that if you replace Te’o with anyone else in the country, Notre Dame struggles to even get to 6-6.  Instead, he has them undefeated and in the National Championship Game.  The same can not be sad for Manziel, as I think a number of guys could have gotten them to nine or ten wins.  If this is truly an award for value and who has had the best season, then how can the heart, soul and leader of the number one team in the country, who also has phenomenal statistics, not win?  It is okay with Te’o though, because losing tonight will only fuel his fire more to get the win that actually matters.

Sunday, December 2, 2012

NFL Week 13 Picks


I had a strong week last week, going 11-4-1 and made myself a nice little sum with a couple of parlays.  Home-dogs were 4-3-1, and touchdown favorites were 2-1 against the number.  As I mentioned previously, I have been tracking the picks in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest, with some of the sharpest sharps in the country, and last week the top five most picked teams went 0-5 against the spread.  Since I started tracking the figures, the top five overall, the top five margins, and the margins overall are all below .500. 
The trends are not significant enough to bet on, but the trend that might have some substance is taking the top margins of the leaders.  By taking these margins, the leaders are hitting at about a 60% win rate, or every gambler’s goal.  The sample is still a little small, but you have to just look at the information for what it is: you can pick the minds of the smartest of the smart and compare them to each other.  This week, the top margins among the leaders are with San Francisco, Seattle, and Cincinnati.  These most also be taken with a grain of salt, as the lines they use are from Tuesday, and some have moved 2 or more points since then.

Saints +3.5 over FALCONS
I had this one wrong.  The Falcons had been just squeaking by and were not looking like they could cover the extra half point, let alone did I expect Drew Brees to follow one of his worst games of his career with THE worst game of his career.

BEARS -3 over Seahawks
The sharps are on this one and the line honestly seems a little low.  I have been on the Bears’ bandwagon all season and see no reason to get off against a rookie quarterback at home.  Chicago was solid last week (including their defense helping Corey and I get our asses kicked) and Seattle lost by three to a Miami team not on the level of Chicago.  With all that said, the line is still only three and the sharps are on it….

Vikings +7.5 over PACKERS
The Packers got destroyed by the Giants on Monday and are still in injury disarray.  I think Rodgers will get his team the victory on his birthday, but seven points is an awful lot.  A new trend that I want to look at is how often teams will lose consecutive games by double digits.  It has happened 16 time all season, with only once by a team that has a .500 record at this point.  It seems like a good bet, until you see that the one time a team above .500 lost consecutive double-digit games was by the Vikings.  I still think they can get the backdoor cover against the depleted Packers’ defense. 

RAMS +8 over 49ers
A home underdog of 8 or more points is 24-2 against the spread in the last few years.  That is an astounding trend that is very hard to bet against (the LVH Supercontest had it at just 7).  Colin Kaepernick has to have a bad game at some point right?  The 49ers Defense has to come back to Earth after their monster fantasy week (40 points!!!! Them and the Bears’ Defense cost us a grand).

Panthers -3 over CHIEFS
The line is not up anymore for obvious reasons.  Its impossible to tell how the game will play out of the two options.  Either Kansas City is jaded and in shock from the recent events and rollover, or they rally around their grief-stricken team, community and fans to victory.  I just know that my head could not be in the game on that team.

Cardinals +6 over JETS
I said I am not going to pick the Jets again and I am sticking to it.

Colts +7 over LIONS
Another line that seems a little high.  The Colts are not good on the road, but the Lions are just hard to figure out.  Their losses do not seem that bad when you consider the only loss to a below-.500 team was the fluky overtime loss to Tennessee.  They also have only one loss by more than a single score.  They also have only one win by more than a single score, so I will take the points.

Jaguars +6 over BILLS
Chad Henne has been surprisingly competent and Cecil Shorts has morphed into the guy that you are going to take two rounds too high next year in your fantasy draft to watch him average 4 points a game.  The Bills can score, but cannot stop anyone either.  With that horrid defense, I do not think they should give more than a field goal to anyone.

DOLPHINS +7 over Patriots
I had picked Miami at 7.5, but the line dropped to 7 and it suddenly seemed like one of those Patriot blowouts.  Tom Brady is in the zone, and the Dolphins have not seemed as strong lately.  However, I cannot go against the double trend of touchdown-home-underdog.

TITANS +7 over Texans
Another double-trend game in which it might make me look stupid.  There is definite blowout potential, but I have a strange feeling Chris Johnson breaks a long run or two to keep this closer than you think.

Bucs +7.5 over BRONCOS
Tampa Bay is still one of only two teams (Patriots) to not lose a game by more than a touchdown.  The line is more than a touchdown.  Although, there is some strong “Peyton Manning showing everyone why he is the best ever” potential, I think Josh Freeman can get the backdoor cover.

RAVENS -7 over Steelers
Charlie. Batch. The only thing I am worried about is that Baltimore does just enough to win the game.  The Ravens dodged a bullet last week and I think they will come back strong.

RAIDERS +1.5 over Browns
So we are at the point where Brandon Weeden is favored on the road.  Remember the stat about losing consecutive games by double digits? Well the Raiders have done that three consecutive weeks.  I think they buck that trend this week though and beat the Browns.

Bengals -1 over CHARGERS
The Bengals are on a roll, led by Andy Dalton.  They have won three in a row by a combined 64 points with Andy Dalton throwing nine touchdowns to zero interceptions.  Now while two of those teams might be in the bottom four in the league (Chiefs/Raiders), Cincinnati has beaten them convincingly.  San Diego has not beaten anyone besides Kansas City since week 2, and the fourth and 29 give-up might signal the end of them trying this season.

Eagles +11 over COWBOYS
I do not think Dallas will beat anyone by more than 10 without the help of three non-offensive touchdowns.  Now what are the odds that they get said touchdowns twice against the same team?  Bryce Brown looks like a possible stud and really worries me for the future encounters with the dreaded and feared.  Would it not be just like this Dallas team to lose a game, favored by 11 points, to a team without its top three offensive players starting a rookie quarterback and a rookie running back?  Moreover, if the games involving the teams the Cowboys are in wild card contention with go the way of the favorites, then the Cowboys just have to win to be tied for the second wild card spot….. The Eagles money-line is looking better and better.

Giants -3 over REDSKINS
RG3 was spectacular last week, but his receivers also bailed him out some.  Let us also not forgot how badly the Redskins’ defense looked and were it not for a key Dez fumble, that game is a complete toss-up.  Eli is about to start doing his Eli things as the calendar has turned to December.

10-Point Teaser of the Week: Texans +3, Patriots +3, Bucs/Broncos over 40

Other Options: Packers +2.5, 49ers +2, Cardinals/Jets under 48, Patriots/Dolphins over 41, Broncos +2.5, Bengals +9

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 11-4-1

Overall: 100-70-4

Sunday, November 25, 2012

NFL Week 12 Picks


With the holiday I was not able to get around to a full picks, so I’ll do a quick run down.   I was 2-1 on Turkey Day, but should have been 3-0 if not for the stupidest challenge rule ever instituted.  What’s to stop a coach from throwing the red flag on an “unchallengeable” play when he knows that it would be over turned to his team’s detriment? Anyway, here are my selections for today.

Raiders +9 over BENGALS
The Bengals are on a roll, but 9 points is too much.

BROWNS +2 over Steelers
A home dog playing against Charlie Batch? Thank you.

COLTS -3 over Bills
Andrew Luck at home is money in the bank.

CHIEFS +10 over Broncos
Corey and my big money fantasy team is in our championship for $1K this week, and we are starting Peyton Manning and Ronnie Hillman… so I am sure that they will have bad days.

JAGUARS +4 over Titans
Why in the world are the Titans giving 4 points on the road???  Actually… Vegas probably knows something…

BEARS -6 over Vikings
The guy Corey and I are playing against has the Chicago Defense, so they are sure to score a couple of touchdowns.

BUCS +1 over Falcons
Our other quarterback (2 QB League) is Matt Ryan.

DOLPHINS +3 over Seahawks
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks suck on the road.  And Corey and I are sitting Reggie Bush so he will have a monster game.

Ravens PICK over CHARGERS
I think San Diego might have given up on the season after last week.

SAINTS +2 over 49ers
New Orleans is on a roll, and the 49ers had a short week with travel.

CARDINALS -1 over Rams
I have literally no idea who will win this game.

GIANTS -3 over Packers
New York will stretch away from Dallas/Washington.

Panthers -3 over EAGLES
Philly is done and now out their best two offensive players.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Panthers +7, Broncos PK, Colts/Bills over 40


Other Options:
Raiders +19, BUCS +11, Rams +11, Packers +13, Raiders/Bengals over 40, Ravens +10

This week: 2-1

Last Week: 8-5

Overall: 89-66-3