NFL Week 16 Picks

If you want some opinions for Bowl Pick ‘Em pools, I posted my picks here yesterday.  For NFL, The Opposite Theory went 5-4 last week, and is still winning at a very profitable rate.  There are five more games this week with potential so let’s dive in.

JAGUARS -3 over Titans

Tennessee is in full on tank mode, as they truly want Marcus Mariota.  I mean, they could not even get a turnover against Jacksonville (damn you Titans D/ST, I’ve been holding you all season for my fantasy championships and this is how your repay me!!).

49ERS -1.5 over Chargers

This has strong sucker-bet potential with how badly San Francisco has looked and the fact their coach has one foot out the door towards Ann Arbor.  The Chargers are still in the hunt, but from everything I am seeing Phillip Rivers is far from 100% and is missing his best  target and starting running back.

REDSKINS +7 over Eagles

My heart says take Washington in hopes that Philly can basically gift the division to Dallas; my brain says that the Eagles will annihilate the Deadskins.  I am picking here with my heart, but I would not be surprised if my brain takes over when I make my actual bet tonight.

DOLPHINS -6.5 over Vikings

TOT #1: Miami is basically already in playoff mode as they need to win out and get a ton of help to have a chance at tie-breaking their way into the playoffs.  I think they come up big against a Vikings team that has been covering the past couple of months, but is due for a letdown.

Packers -12.5 over BUCCANEERS

TOT #2: Green Bay is coming off its worst performance of the season, and possibly Aaron Rodgers’ worst game of his entire career.  Do you really think they won’t bounce back with a vengeance?  I do not think this line could go high enough to where I will NOT take Green Bay.

BEARS +8 over Lions

There are too many trends working against Detroit.  Backup quarterbacks have been covering machines in their first starts this season.  Home underdogs are money as of late.  Underdogs of a touchdown or more have been on a down swing, but still profitable for the season. 

Falcons +6 over SAINTS

TOT #3: I am not so sure there is much of a difference between these two teams, especially in a dome.  New Orleans’ home field has been neutralized this season, so I would say this should be closer to a pick ‘em.  Throw in the TOT factor, and I will take the near touchdown of value.

JETS +10 over Patriots

I think Rex Ryan makes a last stand here and covers as a home dog by double digits.  I could eat my words rather quickly though.

Chiefs +3 over STEELERS

When you get a good read on this Pittsburgh team, let me know.  Every week I seem to be off.

Browns +4 over PANTHERS

Manziel cannot be worse than last week.  Literally, I do not think you can have a worse game.  Having said that, it is not like Carolina is a good team or anything.  I think the Browns defense rises to the occasion and gets a score to win the game.

TEXANS +5.5 over Ravens

The Ravens have the worst secondary in the league, and I think even Cash Keenum can put up some yards on them.  I do not think he will have to throw it that much though, as it will be an Arian Foster show.  J.J. Watt continues his late season push to get a few MVP votes.

RAMS -7 over Giants

TOT #4: The Rams have not given up a touchdown since November 23^rd.  They have given up only one touchdown at home since October 19^th.  Their defense is stout and the Giants’ defense is bad enough to give up the 10 points it will take for victory.

RAIDERS +7 over Bills

TOT #5: If Buffalo wins this game, they still have a solid shot at the playoffs.  The Bills have not made the playoffs since the Wycheck lateral.  I think this is a prime spot for the Raiders to Raider out, get an upset, and ruin their chances for Mariota.

CARDINALS +7.5 over Seahawks

No matter who has had to play quarterback for Arizona, they are undefeated at home for about two years.  Getting over a touchdown with that stat behind you is almost too much value… I might be getting suckered in.

BENGALS +3 over Broncos

Peyton has not looked right for nearly a month now, and the older he gets the tougher the cold weather is on his game.  Denver is all but locked in to the second seed, so there will not be much sense for urgency.

COWBOYS -3 over Colts

As with the Broncos, the Colts are all but locked in to the 3/4 seed, without much of a difference between the two.  I think Hilton sits, killing the Indy’s deep attack on the weak back end of Dallas.  I think Murray plays as a two-down back with Dunbar getting third down duties.  I also think Dunbar does a really good job so he might be worth a play in salary cap weekly leagues.  Lastly, I think the December swoons are over for Romo and the Boys.  Cowboys 45, Colts 31.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Packers -2.5, Patriots PK, Seahawks +2.5  (FREE MONEY-TAKE IT)

Others I Like:

Cowboys/Colts OVER 44, Falcons +16, Browns +14, Chiefs +13, Raiders +17, Raiders/Bills UNDER 51

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts

If you are having to take sleepers and you are still in the championship, then good freakin’ job.  With that said, if Moncrief is still available take him and start him.  It will be a high scoring affair at the Death Star and I don’t think Hilton plays that much if at all.

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 6-8-2

Season: 109-83-2

TOT Last Week: 5-4

TOT Season: 30-15