NFL Week 3 Picks

GIANTS -3.5 over Redskins

TOT gets off to a strong start to the week.  Also, anyone who started trying to say that Washington had a chance to win the division should be fired.

RAMS PK over Steelers

This is the epitome of a TOT game: everyone forgets Pittsburgh losing by a touchdown in week one while the Rams beat the two-time defending NFC Champions.  St. Louis had to deal with the Seattle hangover (still winless) and that led to a surprising loss to Washington.  Best bet of the week right here.

Chargers +3 over VIKINGS

TOT game #3: This is the biggest toss-up of the week.  The bets are even coming in at almost exactly 50% each way.  I will take the field goal of value to go with TOT.

TEXANS -6.5 over Buccaneers

Tampa took advantage of a hurt Drew Brees causing three turnovers and limiting New Orleans to 219 yards passing.  On the other hand, I liked what I saw from Ryan Mallett and think that the Texans will be able to run on Tampa.  It is also a TOT game.

Eagles +3 over JETS

Philadelphia cannot be as bad as they looked last week… right?  This is another TOT game and DeMarco Murray will finally break out.  The Jets defense is getting too much love and will have a rude awakening.

Saints +3.5 (or higher) over PANTHERS

This game is off the board right now due to Drew Brees’ injury.  I think even if he plays, that Sean Payton gears it back towards the run game and New Orleans springs the upset.

Jaguars +14 over PATRIOTS

Both teams won last week, so there is no TOT potential.  I will be betting with the underdog getting two touchdowns or more in every game this season.  It’s like home-dogs: bet the same every single game to try and turn a profit.

RAVENS -2.5 over Bengals

Baltimore’s defense is solid, even with the loss of Terrell Suggs.  Andy Dalton has not had an Andy Dalton game yet, and I think it comes out this Sunday.

BROWNS -3 over Raiders

Surprisingly, both teams are coming off of wins.  I think that McCown might be the right choice because advanced metrics pointed toward Johnny Manziel getting quite lucky with bad decisions/throws.  Take away the two long bombs and his game was sub-par.  

Fun fact: the last time the Raiders lost by less than 3 points or won on the road was in 2013 against a Texans team that finished 1-15.  Actually, the last time the Raiders won a road game against a team that did not finish with the worst record in the NFL was in 2011.

TITANS +3.5 over Colts

Are we sure the Colts are good?  It is a question I have seen the first couple of weeks but now I might be buying some stock in it.  This is going one of two ways to me: Colts by 30 or Titans by 10.  I think I might be leaning toward Tennessee at home…

COWBOYS +2 over Falcons

Over the past five seasons, the first game that a starting quarterback misses the team rallies for a 23-11 record ATS.  I am going with the trend.

49ers +6.5 over CARDINALS

I’ve picked against the Cardinals two weeks in a row and I am not stopping now! This is also a TOT game… that’s all I got.

Bears +14.5 over SEAHAWKS

In one of my survivor pools, there was over 200 people to start, and just 2 after last week.  If you have Seattle still then you are safe this week.  However, more than two touchdowns and the backup quarterback’s first start are too much to pass up.

DOLPHINS -3 over Bills

I think Miami will bounce back after a tough loss to Jacksonville.  It is the Dolphins’ home opener and the Bills have not won on the road (outside of a meaningless Week 17 game last year) in almost a year.

LIONS +3.5 over Broncos

At 0-2, this game just means more to Detroit than Denver.  It is also another TOT game.

Chiefs +7 over PACKERS

Kansas City gets basically four days of extra rest due to them playing Thursday and Green Bay playing late Sunday night.  The Packers also played Seattle and the week after playing the Seahawks a team has still not covered in over a year and a half.  It is also a TOT game.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Patriots -4, Seahawks -4.5, Rams +10

Others I Like:

Patriots/Jaguars OVER 36.5, Saints/Panthers UNDER 55, Eagles +12, 49ers +16.5, Browns +7, Chargers +13

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: James Starks, RB,  Green Bay Packers

Last week, Brandon Coleman was screwed by Drew Brees’ hurt shoulder. Twice he was looking at him in the end zone but could not deliver the pass.  This week I’m giving you Starks against the Chiefs.  Lacy is questionable and even if he plays, Starks should get a fair amount of targets.

This Week: 1 – 0

Last Week: 8 – 8

Season: 15 – 16 – 1

TOT Last Week: 3 - 4

TOT Season: 3 - 4

NFL Week 2 Picks

Alright, first week is in the books and I finished slightly up with a winning teaser. Now, I can really put The Opposite Theory to play.  In short, I use TOT as a team that did not cover the previous week over a team that did.  It finished 37-19 last season for a hefty profit so I will be keeping track of it again this year.

Broncos +3 over CHIEFS

Twitter pick that I put a sizeable bet on. It’s still not time to bet against Peyton Manning in a prime-time game.

Texans +3 over PANTHERS

Our first TOT game of the season! I would take the Texans anyway with Luke Kuechly out for Carolina and Houston being able to run on them now.

Buccaneers +10 over SAINTS

Jameis has serious back door cover potential, and I do not like giving double digits with a bad defense.

STEELERS -5.5 over 49ers

I’m counting this as a TOT game because pushing, but still losing by 7 should count as not covering.  San Francisco is not as good as they seem because as I said last week the Vikings would not be up to snuff just yet.

VIKINGS -3 over Lions

Speaking of Minnesota, I think they will look like the Cowboys last season: everyone kind of writes them off after a week one loss to San Francisco, but then their star (AP/Romo) gets his feet under him and they go on a run.

BILLS -1 over Patriots

I might end up regretting this one, but the Patriots’ offensive line should not be able to handle the ferocious pass rush of Buffalo.

BEARS +2 over Cardinals

TOT game #3. Alshon Jeffery will probably not play, and that might kick the Bears into another gear knowing they can’t rely on him to bail Cutler out.

BROWNS +1.5 over Titans

I do not think Johnny Manziel will play well, but Mariota’s output can only go down after a perfect quarterback rating last week.  Cleveland’s defense is just good enough to handle Tennessee and a reeled back game plan for Mr. Football will help.

Chargers +3 over BENGALS

I might have under-valued the Chargers in the pre-season.  They looked pretty good last week on offense and I think Cincy is getting over-valued after a blowout win over the Raiders.

REDSKINS +3.5 over Rams

It’s a TOT game, home underdog by more than a field goal, and most importantly, last season the week after teams played Seattle (in a normal week, no Monday/Thursday or Bye’s) they did not cover once.

GIANTS -2.5 over Falcons

This is not quite a TOT since the Giants did cover the spread, but I still like them to bounce back. 

RAIDERS +4.5 over Ravens

It’s another home dog by more than a field goal, and it’s not like the Ravens looked that good against Denver.  I think Oakland slows the game down if McGloin ends up starting and keeps this game close.

JAGUARS +7 over Dolphins

I’m buying the half point to get a home underdog of a touchdown, as well as a TOT candidate.  This is a tease-both-ways game in which the Dolphins will probably not blow them out, but just keep it close enough for a win.

EAGLES -6 over Cowboys

This is another close TOT game, but since Dallas did not cover in their win it does not technically qualify.  Either way, Chip Kelly knows that if they lose this game there is a more than 50% chance that the Cowboys have effectively a three-game lead on the whole division after just two weeks.  He will throw in every trick he has to win.

Seahawks +3.5 over PACKERS

Seattle will miss Kam Chancellor, but they know that they cannot start 0-2 with a decent chance every team in their division will be 2-0.  This qualifies as a TOT game and I think Wilson makes enough plays for the win.

COLTS -7 over Jets

The Jets win last week makes this game slightly less important to them and the Colts loss made it extremely more important to them.  It’s a surprising TOT game and I think Andrew Luck bounces back strongly.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Colts +3, Patriots +11, Buccaneers +20

Others I Like:

Eagles +4, Seahawks +13.5, Browns/Titans Under 53, Texans +13, Raiders +14.5, Giants +7.5

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Brandon Coleman, WR, New Orleans Saints

I will try to give you someone that is not only available in most leagues, but whose price is right in weekly leagues.  Last week in my weekly article at SoCalledFantasyExperts.com, I gave Carson Palmer as my top play and he led the Sunday/Monday games in scoring. 

This week I’m giving you the wide out from New Orleans, Brandon Coleman.  I wrote in my article this week that Coleman had just one fewer target than Brandin Cooks last week and more than Marques Colsten.  He managed 14.1 points in PPR leagues and gets an awful Tampa secondary, yet is only owned in 37.1% of leagues. Get him now.

This Week: 1 – 0

Last Week: 7 – 8 – 1

Season: 8 – 8 – 1

TOT This Season: 0 – 0

TOT Last Season: 37 - 19

NFL Week 1 Picks

And the NFL is officially back!! No more Patriots cheating talk (whoops)! No more off the field violence (damn)! ….

Nevertheless, I had a pretty long preview for the entire NFL yesterday, so I am going to stick to just the picks here.

Friendly reminder that I will be going with The Opposite Theory again this season, but since it’s week one, there are no games in play.

PATRIOTS -7 over Steelers

My feel for the game was right, but Ben backed into a push with a late TD.

BEARS +7 over Packers

I’m buying the half point because I refuse to give a touchdown with a home dog.

Chiefs +1 over TEXANS

The last five teams to be featured on Hard Knocks went 0-4-1 against the spread in Week 1, and it took a late comeback just to get the push.

Browns +3 over JETS

Neither quarterback is any good, but I think the Browns have a better defense, and the second best offensive line in the league.  Start Isaiah Crowell if you have him.

BILLS +3 over Colts

80% of all action in Vegas on this game is coming in on the Colts… I think we have the Sucker Bet of the Week so I will take Buffalo.

REDSKINS +3.5 over Dolphins

Nope, this might be the SBotW.  86% of the handle is coming in on Miami, and I am still not sure why this line isn’t creeping towards a touchdown.

JAGUARS +3 over Panthers

Home underdogs should be bet the same way, all the way through. This line feels just about right, so I will continue taking the home dogs.

RAMS +4 over Seahawks

I think I would lean towards St. Louis here anyway because it should be a toss-up.  Seattle will be getting used to a new offensive line and Jimmy Graham, while missing Kam Chancellor.  Then you throw in the home dog factor and I’m in on St. Louis.

New Orleans +2.5 over CARDINALS

Arizona is due for a let down from regression this season.  They were the luckiest team in the league in terms of point differential/record and close games last year, so I think they start off with losing a close game late.

Lions +3 over CHARGERS

This game is off the board as of now, but I did find the 3-point line for an off-shore site.  At this point I realized I had taken every single underdog…. And I feel really good about it.  Maybe this is a market-correction week in which Vegas sets the lines so that the more publicly favored teams will draw in more bets.

Titans +3 over BUCCANEERS

I like Mariota to pick up the NFL game quicker than Winston.

RAIDERS +3.5 over Bengals

Are the Bengals that good?  Last year, every one of their losses was by 10+ points.  Their only wins against playoff teams were against a hobbled Peyton Manning late in the year, and sweeping the Ravens early in the year.  I think they are in for a free-fall.

Ravens +4 over BRONCOS

I liked the Broncos, but once I’m this far deep with all dogs why switch it up?

Giants +7 over COWBOYS

I’m buying a half point here, as well.  Dallas will take some time to get their defense together as well as their running back situation.  Beckham will probably have a field day with Carr/Claiborne and this shootout will definitely be within a touchdown.

FALCONS +3 over Eagles

I’m all-in on Atlanta this season, and this starts it off strongly.

49ERS +2 over Vikings

I like Minnesota this year and am down on San Francisco, yet this feels like last season when the 49ers show their best stuff in their first game.  Peterson hasn’t had actual contact in over a year now, so I think he needs a week to get going.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Giants +17, Cowboys/Giants OVER 41, Falcons/Eagles OVER 44

Others I Like:

Bears/Packers OVER 38.5, Chiefs +11, Browns +13, Browns/Jets UNDER 51, Titans/Bucs UNDER 53, and Bears +17

No Fantasy sleeper to start the season, but please check out my Weekly Value Based Drafting piece.

This Week: 0 – 0 – 1

TOT : 0 – 0 – 0

Last Season: 122 – 97 - 2

2015 NFL Preview

So it has been a while since I have been on Dirkland because I have been writing over at SoCalledFantasyExperts.com. If you would like to check out all of my fantasy football and baseball articles, feel free to click here for my archive. Share and comment away!

Now that football season is back, I will still have my weekly picks on Dirkland, as SCFE does not want to steer towards 100% gambling just yet. I thought I would give a quick season preview with other season long prop bets first.

AFC East	Projected Record	Division Odds
New England Patriots	11 - 5	-600
Miami Dolphins	10 - 6	+350
Buffalo Bills	9 - 7	+400
New York Jets	6 - 10	+800

Was anyone really that surprised that Tom Brady got away with cheating?  I mean the franchise has been caught cheating more than the rest of the NFL combined with only minor punishments to show for it.

Nevertheless, this is still their division to win.  If anything, I’m probably too low on their win total as they will be in complete F-U mode the entire season.  The only divisional/wins bet I like is the Dolphins.  They have a sneaky good offense and will put up some points.  I wouldn’t deter you from taking the Jets under 7.5 wins either.

AFC North	Projected Record	Division Odds
Pittsburgh Steelers	9 - 7	+200
Baltimore Ravens	9 - 7	+110
Cincinnati Bengals	8 - 8	+160
Cleveland Browns	5 - 11	+1000

This whole division got the benefit of the doubt last season by playing the two weakest divisions, the NFC and AFC South.  That definitely ballooned their win totals as well as made them out to be better than they were.

With that said, I think the Steelers and Ravens are destined to tie at the top of the division again.  The 18^th tie-breaker will give the edge to Pitt.  I don’t like any of the division odds, but I do love the Browns under 6.5 wins.

AFC South	Projected Record	Division Odds
Indianapolis Colts	13 - 3	-550
Houston Texans	8 - 8	+370
Tennessee Titans	7 - 9	+2000
Jacksonville Jaguars	5 - 11	+1500

Surprise, surprise I like Indy to take the division.  The real surprise is I don’t mind laying the heavy odds.  If Andrew Luck is healthy, they win the South. Period.  So I will lay the $550 to win $100.

The other two bets I like are the Colts over 11 wins and the Titans over 5.5 wins.  The Colts for obvious reasons, and the Titans because I think Mariota has something.  They also have the weak division and get the play the NFC South, so I think the Titans will surprise a few teams.

AFC West	Projected Record	Division Odds
Denver Broncos	11 - 5	-180
San Diego Chargers	8 - 8	+270
Kansas City Chiefs	8 - 8	+280
Oakland Raiders	5 - 11	+1200

This is the toughest AFC division to figure out.  Naturally you would think the Broncos run away with it, but the Peyton injury possibility scares me.  I tentatively put them in the top spot.

There aren’t any bets I like because the odds on the Chargers/Chiefs are too low.  If they were closer to the +350 or +400 range, maybe I would be more in to them.  The problem seems to be that one of the two middle tier teams will break out, you just have no clue which one.

NFC North	Projected Record	Division Odds
Green Bay Packers	13 - 3	-300
Minnesota Vikings	9 - 7	+700
Detroit Lions	7 - 9	+550
Chicago Bears	4 - 12	+1400

Now here’s a division with some action I like!  I think the Packers run away with not only the division, but also the #1 seed in the playoffs.  I’ll gladly lay the $300 and take them over 11 wins because if Aaron Rodgers is healthy then they win both.

I also like the Vikings to have over 8.5 wins.  Teddy Bridgewater looks like the real deal and now he has AP plus more receiving threats.  The Bears seem like a solid bet to finish under 6.5 wins as their defense is atrocious, their running back has got a lot of miles on him, their #1 receiver (Alshon) is gimpy, and their #2 (Kevin White) receiver is out for the season.

NFC South	Projected Record	Division Odds
Atlanta Falcons	10 - 6	+165
Carolina Panthers	7 - 9	+250
New Orleans Saints	7 - 9	+115
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5 - 11	+550

Most of the time I am using trends and math to come up with my betting picks.  However, I just have a feeling about this Atlanta team.  Their offense is too explosive not to and it has a lot to do with Tevin Coleman.  I am all-in on Coleman as I have him in almost everyone one of my double-digit fantasy football leagues.  I think he brings a new spark to their backfield that they have sorely missed since Michael Turner was still viable.

I like the Falcons to easily clear the over 8.5 wins and love getting money on their division odds.  The other three teams are a smorgasbord of issues: Carolina’s offensive weapons, New Orleans losing receivers, Tampa getting used to a rookie quarterback.  I will just leave them alone and take the known quantity to triumph.

NFC West	Projected Record	Division Odds
Seattle Seahawks	12 - 4	-500
St. Louis Rams	9 - 7	+550
Arizona Cardinals	8 - 8	+500
San Francisco 49ers	3 - 13	+1700

This division is actually very similar to the AFC South: I think the top team is so much better than the others that they are worth laying huge odds.  Seattle should win the division handily and I expect them to cover the over 11 wins.

The surprise for many will be San Francisco.  I love them at under 6.5 wins.  When you lose half of your defensive starters as well as your head coach and you were a team built on defense and leadership then you got BIG problems.  Kaepernick will disappoint yet again, and Christian Hackenberg will be quarterbacking San Francisco next season.

NFC East	Projected Record	Division Odds
Dallas Cowboys	9 - 7	+125
Philadelphia Eagles	9 - 7	-115
New York Giants	7 - 9	+350
Washington Redskins	4 - 12	+900

Let me be clear, I am not saying the Cowboys are the far and away champion of the division.  However, I do like them getting odds to win it, when it is a virtual coin flip between them and Philly.  I can definitely see this coming down to an obscure tie-break procedure to decide the champion.

With that said, you have to love the Redskins under 6 wins.  I mean seriously, does anyone think this terrible team has 6 wins in them?  The rest of the division will cannibalize like it does every year so I will leave the other win totals alone.

AFC Playoff Seeds	NFC Playoff Seeds
1. Indianapolis Colts	1. Green Bay Packers
2. New England Patriots	2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Denver Broncos	3. Atlanta Falcons
4. Pittsburgh Steelers	4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Miami Dolphins	5. Philadelphia Eagles
6. Baltimore Ravens	6. Minnesota Vikings

Wild Card Round: Broncos over Ravens; Dolphins over Steelers; Falcons over Vikings; Eagles over Cowboys

Divisional Round: Colts over Dolphins; Patriots over Broncos; Packers over Eagles; Falcons over Seahawks

Conference Championships: Colts over Patriots; Packers over Falcons

Super Bowl XL: Green Bay Packers 31 – Indianapolis Colts 27

Last year I nailed my Super Bowl Champion in the pre-season, and I have a good feeling about this one as well.  Jordy Nelson’s injury hurts the Pack a little, but when you have the best player on the planet then you have the edge.  Don’t sleep on the Falcons or Dolphins to make a deep run though, as both of their offenses have the firepower to hang with either Green Bay or Indy.

Pre-Season Prop Bets

Super Bowl Odds: Atlanta +3500, Miami +1700

My two Super Bowl picks are sitting at +500 and +700 respectively so the odds are not strong.  I do like my two long shots, especially the Falcons’ odds.

Player with Most Passing Yards: Matt Ryan +700, Tom Brady +3000

I already stated my love for the Falcons this year, and the Brady odds are still out of whack.

Player with Most Receiving Yards: Julio Jones +550, Antonio Brown +500

I feel like it is only going to be one of these two, so then you are getting decent odds.

Player with Most Rushing Yards: Lamar Miller +2000

Jeremy Hill had good odds but he got bet too low.  Miller is worth a flier at twenty to one.

Total Touchdown Passes: Matt Ryan OVER 27.5; Ryan Tannehill OVER 25.5; Sam Bradford OVER 24.5

All three of these totals just feel too low.

Total Receiving Touchdowns: Odell Beckham Jr. OVER 9.5; Jimmy Graham OVER 8.5; Julio Jones OVER 9.5

As the only red-zone threat on each team, I think they each get double digit TD’s.

Thursday Night Pick:

PATRIOTS -7 over Steelers

Brady starts his revenge tour against Goodell.

I will be keeping track of The Opposite Theory again this season.  TOT is when one team is coming off of not covering the spread against another team that did cover the previous week.  It hit at a remarkably high rate last season and I expect it to again.  The basis is that the line is set too far the opposite way due to the public’s recent bias.

Last Season: 122-97-2

The Opposite Theory: 37-19