I
am on a two-year run of really seeing the flow of the Super Bowl after picking Flacco to
pick apart the 49ers and the Seahawks to use
their defensive line to get pressure on Manning and force him into mistakes. Many pundits, analysts, and amateurs alike
are all talking about how close of a game this year is and that it is one of
the best overall matchups in a while.
People are even going as far as to say that no one “knows” who is going
to win, it is all just a guess.
Newsflash:
almost every NFL game is a “guess”. The
best handicappers in the world play in the LVH SuperContest where they put
thousands of dollars on the line to pick whichever five NFL games a week they
want against the spread. The winner
every year barely cracks 70% and the majority fall below 50% of correctly
picked games. In reality, outside of a
major hot streak the preeminent handicappers will only hit 60% with NFL games
(all of this is against the spread, which is all that should matter). The parity of talent is just too strong that if
the winner of this game plays the first-pick-holding Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a
neutral field, they probably only win seven or so times, and cover about half
of the time.
When
picking a single NFL game I do not worry about who would win the single game: I
look more for who will cover more if they played ten times on that same
field. In a single game you can have
pass interference go for or against you in the biggest of situations, or one of
the greatest catches in NFL Playoff history not count (yes I am still bitter,
and yes that is why I haven’t written the past couple of weeks). Any two NFL teams are too close in talent to
factor in what could happen in a
single game, so I focus on what should
happen.
The
perfect example is the safety to open the game last year. What if the center doesn’t spazz out on the
first series of the game and Denver drives down and scores? Could the outcome have been drastically
different? Two years ago, there were a
couple of questionable blocks on the Jacoby Jones touchdown return as well as a
disputed no-call on Crabtree at the end of the game. If either of these go the other way, then San
Francisco probably wins that game. The
point is that if one of these fluky things had gone the other way then should turns into could. That is just the way
of the NFL and is what makes it so great.
At the same time, I will still offer my opinion on what should happen
Sunday night and make a firm stance on which team will win the game.
When Seattle Has the Ball:
The
most prevalent misconception about the actual gameplay for this Super Bowl is
the age-old false causation, “If you run the ball well on the Patriots then you
can beat them.” Running the ball does
not cause wins, winning the game causes rushing the football (just as losing
will call a lack of rushing attempts).
The
Patriots have won eleven games by a touchdown or more this season, and in all
but one of them the other team failed to rush for 92 yards (the one exception
being a fluky Chicago game in which they were down by 31 at the half and just
handed it off to end the game as quickly as possible). In six of those wins New England had a
halftime lead of 10 or more, and 17 or more in five of them. When you are down that much at the half to a
high-scoring offense, odds are slim that there will be many rushes in the
second half. In the other blowout wins
by the Patriots they pulled away early in the third quarter to give a similar
flow to the game with an average final margin of almost three touchdowns.
When
teams have rushed for more than 100 yards this season (seven times not
including Chicago) against New England, the opponent had either a half time
lead or final winning margin of a at least a touchdown. Once again, the flow of the game dictates
that the opponents were rushing the ball and not that it was more
effective. In fact, of the top-5 rushing
outputs against the Patriots this season, three were New England wins.
What This Means:
I
think Marshawn Lynch will be effective running the ball on Sunday. I do not think that this effectiveness will
lead to many points. New England’s
defense is sneakily staunch. They have
played nine of their last ten games against teams with non-losing records and
only once has an opponent scored more than 26 points, with a 17.4 point
average. That stretch includes four
games against top-5 scoring offenses (including the top 2) with an average
yield of just 14 points. New England
should stop Seattle’s offense and keep them under 20 points.
When New England Has the Ball:
Seattle
has had the best defense in the league for three years running now, and quite
possibly one of the best in the last 15 years.
Everyone knows about their vaunted secondary of mostly late round picks
that have jelled together to put fear in opposing receivers as the Legion of
Boom. How will the hyped passing attack
of New England be able to complete any passes against such a firm
secondary?
The
Seahawks led the league in every opposing passing and receiving category
imaginable except one: tight end production.
Seattle actually gave up the third most touchdowns to tight ends of any
team in the league. They also were in
the middle of the pack in yards, and in the bottom quarter in catch
percentage. When facing the elite level
of tight end offenses led by the best in the game (Antonio Gates, Julius Thomas
and Jason Witten), Seattle gave up 5.7 catches for 57.3 yards and 2.3
touchdowns a game. Let that sink in for
a minute….
So
against elite tight ends, Seattle gave up MORE THAN TWO TOUCHDOWNS a game this
season. Now they face the best tight end
in the league that happens to hold the record for most touchdowns over the
first two seasons in a career as well as the most touchdowns in a single season
by any tight end in NFL history. Seattle
obviously knows these stats as well, so what will they do to remedy it?
The
Seahawks make their money on playing a single high safety look with basically
one-on-one on the outside. They can do
this because they have the best free safety in the league, Earl Thomas, and the
best lockdown corner Richard Sherman.
This flexibility combined with a strong front four that can get pressure
without a blitz (as noted last year) allows the other four defensive players to
play with a great deal of freedom.
Usually, there will only be two receivers in their area to cover for the
four defenders which allows strong safety Kam Chanchellor to take chances on
big hits. Whenever a more athletic/wily
tight end is on the field, he has been able to take advantage of these risky
moves.
With
the size of the Patriots receivers, Seattle would normally be able to get away
with putting Byron Maxwell on Edelman and the backup corners Tharold Simon and
Jeremy Lane on Amendola/LaFell leaving Sherman to match up with
Gronkowski. Not only does Seattle not
like to match up, but the injuries to Sherman and Thomas make them less of
physical threats than they are normally.
I believe that they are down playing the significance of those injuries
and we will see the evidence Sunday night.
What This Means:
I
think Gronk is going to have a big day.
Chancellor does not have the chops to keep up with him in the open
field, Bobby Wagner will not have the speed to stay with his deceiving
quickness, and Sherman/Thomas cannot play physical enough with him because of
injuries. He will have to be the focus
of the back seven, which will open up lanes for LaGarrette Blount to pick up
chunks of yardage.
What It All Comes Down To:
I
think New England’s defense will once again get Brady a Super Bowl Ring. Brady has two Super Bowl MVP’s to his name
thanks to the best defense/coach in the league, and a third championship thanks
to Deion Branch’s career day. When he is
the focal point I do not think they are a Super Bowl Champion team. Luckily this season he is third to Gronk and
the defense, in that order. New England
has an “Us Against the World” mentality because they were caught cheating,
AGAIN (which will be a whole different post), and they ride that wave with Rob
Gronkowski steering the ship.
New England 24 – Seattle 16
SUPER BOWL PROP BETS
UNDER 48.5
As I have already mentioned, New
England has not given up more than 26 points in their last ten games; well the
Seahawks have not given up more than 24 in their last 12 games. Both teams have played great offenses such as
Green Bay, Denver, San Diego, etc., in that time period. I love the under here.
Will a team score 3 consecutive times? YES
This has happened in the last
three Super Bowls, five of the last six, and 14 of the last 19. I could easily see a field
goal-touchdown-field goal combo, which would only yield 13 points and not be
too drastic.
Tom Brady’s First Pass: Completion
The odds are against you a little
bit on this one with the vig, but look for the Patriots to get something quick
and easy to start Brady off on the right foot.
The worst thing possible would be an opening interception, so Josh
McDaniels will keep it safe.
Super Bowl MVP: Rob Gronkowski +1200
So a $100 bet gets you $1300 back
if Gronk wins the MVP. I consider it a
25% chance that if the Patriots win, he is the MVP. I think they are more than a 50% chance to
win the game, so by those odds you are getting $200 of value.
Rob Gronkowski Receiving Yards OVER 79.5, Receptions OVER 5.5,
-135 to score a touchdown, first reception yards
OVER 9.5
As you can see, I’m all-in on
Gronk.
Will there be a Roughing the Passer Penalty? YES +140
Between the two Superstar-level
quarterbacks, if there is a hard hit that flag will come out. The last thing the league needs is more
concussion talk, so look for a quick trigger on personal foul penalties.
Ryan Allen shortest punt UNDER 36 yards
A punt to the 12-yard line of New
England from the 47-yard line going in?
Thank you.
Total score by Tiger Woods in the first round of The Masters vs.
Julian Edelman Receiving yards: Tiger’s score
Dude shot an 82 yesterday, with a
44 on the front nine.
LeGarrette Blount Rushing Attempts OVER Minutes of Silva/Diaz
UFC Fight
The max amount of minutes for the
fight is 15, which is the over/under for Blount’s attempts. So the max for one, is the average for the
other? Value.
Idina Menzel’s National Anthem: UNDER 2 minutes 2 seconds
That is an obscenely long anthem,
and I don’t think she will “let it go” that long.
How many times will Katy Perry be mentioned in the first half?
OVER 2
Seems too easy. Just two mentions of the half time show and I
push?
Katy Perry’s first outfit: Skirt or Dress, -150
Just Google-image search her and
look at the percentage of pictures of her performing in one of the two.
