Friday, December 16, 2016

NFL Week 15 Picks

SEAHAWKS -16 over Rams
I really was not sure how high this line would have had to be for me to take Los Angeles.
Dolphins -3 OVER JETS
Matt Moore is not that much of a downgrade from Ryan Tannehill.
GIANTS -4 over Lions
I have given up trying to figure out how the Giants are getting these wins. They tend to let other teams suck just a little bit more and shoot themselves in the feet.
Eagles +6 over RAVENS
It’s a short week for the Ravens and Philly has to break their losing streak at some point.
BEARS +6 over Packers
This game will be absolutely frigid and that tends to lean toward closer contests.
VIKINGS -4 over Colts
Indianapolis cannot score on good defenses. Against Top-16 defenses, Indy is averaging just 16 points per game.
Browns +10 over BILLS
Cleveland has not covered a spread in exactly two months. It is REALLY hard to go much further on an ATS losing streak.
Titans +6 over Chiefs
Tennessee has not lost a game by more than one score since Week 1, when they lost by just 9 points. This team is in every single game it plays and if I’m getting nearly a touchdown with them against anyone then I’m taking it.
Jaguars +5 over TEXANS
DeAndre Hopkins and Lamar Miller are both dealing with minor injuries, so there will be more placed on Brock Osweiler’s shoulders. Those are not shoulders you want to put your money on.
Saints +3 over CARDINALS
Both of these teams have disappointed this season but I don’t see that much of a difference between them. Take the points.
49ers +14 over FALCONS
There is a massive trend against teams that score more than 40 points and cover one week not covering the next game.
BRONCOS +3 over Patriots
Tom Brady has lost his last three games at Denver, and one of those was with Brock Osweiler at quarterback.
CHARGERS +3 over Raiders
This feels like one of those late season games where Philip Rivers looks like a Hall of Famer and beats a team that he should not.
BENGALS +3 over Steelers
Might as well take all of the home underdogs right?
COWBOYS -7 over Buccaneers
Tampa’s defense has been better, but they still give up over 110 rushing yards a game.
REDSKINS -6.5 over Panthers
Washington needs this game to stay in reach of the playoff hunt.
Best Bets: 25-15
Giants -4, Titans +6, Redskins/Panthers OVER 50
10-Point Teaser of the Week: 36-3
Redskins/Panthers OVER 40, 49ers +24, Browns +20
Others I Like: 69-9
Giants +6, Titans +16, Buccaneers +17, Saints +13, Saints/Cardinals OVER 40, Falcons/49ers OVER 41
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 7-8-1

Season: 103-84-6

Friday, December 9, 2016

NFL Week 14 Picks

CHIEFS -3.5 over Raiders
I have been saying for a couple of weeks now that Kansas City is the favorite in the AFC.

Chargers +1 over PANTHERS
I mean, did you see the lack of effort and attention to detail by Carolina Sunday night? I can’t take them until I know Cam can deal with adversity.

Texans +7 over COLTS
The Opposite Theory here, as there is too much of an over-correction due to last week’s results. Brock Osweiler is terrible, but the Colts are not as good as they looked Monday night.

BROWNS +6 over Bengals
I think that there is a chance that Cleveland ends their drought here. If you are still alive in a survivor pool, I would be wary. This seems like that game that happens every year that knocks out the majority of people surviving.

BILLS +3 over Steelers
This is another TOT game, but don’t be deceived by end results. I mean, Buffalo was cruising, up 24-9 and just took the pedal off the gas against Oakland. Pittsburgh benefitted HEAVILY from Eli doing Eli things like throwing terrible interceptions.

DOLPHINS +2 over Cardinals
This line has moved a full field goal toward the Cardinals. Yet another TOT game, in which I don’t think Miami is as bad as they looked last week and the Cardinals are not as good as they looked. You get over a field goal of value here.

Bears +8 over LIONS
This line opened at 9, and sharps have bet it down a bit. Matt Barkley is not as terrible as I thought. Detroit only has one win all season by more than a touchdown. Chicago can keep it close.

JAGUARS +3 over Vikings
Minnesota has lost six of their last seven and four straight on the road. They have no offensive line, running game, or downfield passing game. Jacksonville can keep it close in what should be a 10-9 final.

Saints +3 over BUCCANEERS
Drew Brees is going to have a field day and this shootout should remain within a field goal.

EAGLES +2 over Redskins
The public has hammered Washington here, moving the line two points and totaling 85% of the handle. I think Philly can get out of its mini-slump against Washington’s terrible defense.

TITANS +1 over Broncos
This is a tough one with no word still on who’s starting at quarterback for Denver. I think Tennessee will be able to run the ball and slow down the Broncos’ pass rush in the process.

49ERS -2.5 over Jets
Bryce Petty is starting for New York.

PACKERS +3 over Seahawks
With no Earl Thomas in the middle of the field, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams will have monster games. Either that, or this is the sucker line of the week.

RAMS +7 over Falcons
All but one of the Falcons’ wins have been by a touchdown or more, and four have come on the road. So why isn’t this line higher? I think THIS is the sucker line of the week.

GIANTS +4 over Cowboys
This game just means more to New York. If they lose, they will only be a half-game up on Washington for the last playoff spot and they play AT Washington in Week 17. Also, if they lose, they will probably be underdogs in each of their last three games. A must-win for the Giants.

PATRIOTS -7 over Ravens
I think Bill Belichick has not shown his full hand with Marty B in the lineup, nor has he shown what they can pull out with both James White and Dion Lewis in the game at the same time. People are trumpeting this as a new rivalry, and that’s going to piss Tom Brady off.

Best Bets: 24-13
Vikings/Jaguars UNDER 40, 49ers -2.5, Giants +4

10-Point Teaser of the Week: 33-3
Vikings/Jaguars UNDER 50, Giants +14, Packers +13

Others I Like: 64-8
49ers +7.5, Saints +13, Saints/Buccaneers OVER 40.5, Texans +17. Titans +11, 49ers/Jets UNDER 55

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 6-9

Overall: 96-76-5

Friday, December 2, 2016

NFL Week 13 Picks

Cowboys -3 over VIKINGS
Should have covered if Dak takes one more step before sliding.

JAGUARS +4 over Broncos
84% of all money is on Denver so I will go with Vegas on this one.

Chiefs +6 over FALCONS
I really think with Gronk now out that Kansas City is a co-favorite in the AFC. Too many points.

Texans +7 over PACKERS
I’m not going to jump on the “Green Bay is BACK” bandwagon just yet.

Eagles +1.5 over BENGALS
This line has moved a field goal towards the Bengals. What am I missing about how terrible Cincinnati is?

SAINTS -6.5 over Lions
Detroit can only pull so many games out of their ass. New Orleans’ offense is rolling right now.

BEARS PK over 49ers
These teams are both awful, so I’ll go with the home team.

Rams +14 over PATRIOTS
No Gronk, no two-touchdown spreads for me.

RAVENS -3 over Dolphins
Miami is another team pulling random games out of their ass that I think is due for a clunker.

Bills +3 over RAIDERS
The Raiders are getting a little too full of themselves. And why is this line only 3 if Oakland is as good as everyone thinks? Sucker bet of the week.

CHARGERS -4 over Buccaneers
That was a slugfest last week between Tampa and Seattle and I think it takes its toll on them this week.

CARDINALS -2.5 over Redskins
Or is this the sucker bet of the week? Washington has looked really good, but I think the Cardinals’ defense can stop them.

STEELERS -6 over Giants
With the Cowboys’ win last night, the Steelers just need this game more. New York is almost locked in to the 5 seed.

SEAHAWKS -7 over Panthers
The Opposite Theory is in play here after Carolina covered and Seattle did not last week.

JETS +1.5 over Colts
In the battle of the aged running backs, I think the Jets prevail.

Best Bets: 22-12
Redskins/Cardinals OVER 49, Chiefs +6, Jaguars +4

10-Point Teaser of the Week: 30-3
Redskins/Cardinals OVER 39, Chiefs +16, Rams +24

Others I Like: 58-8
Jaguars +14, Texans +14, Dolphins/Ravens UNDER 51, Falcons/Chiefs UNDER 60, Lions +16.5, Steelers +4

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 10-6

Overall: 89-68-5

Sunday, November 27, 2016

NFL Week 12 Picks

Quick picks, but just notice the amount of high spreads and home dogs. That usually means a good week for the underdogs.

LIONS -2.5 over Vikings
Minnesota is terrible.
Redskins +6 over COWBOYS
The Cowboys had been 10-0 against the spread.
Steelers -8 over COLTS
Scott Tolzein.

TEXANS +3 over Chargers
BEARS +7 over Titans
Jaguars +10 over BILLS
Bengals +4 over RAVENS
Cardinals +4 over FALCONS
49ers +7.5 over DOLPHINS
Rams + 7.5 over SAINTS
BROWNS +7 over Giants
BUCCANEERS +6 over Seahawks
Panthers +4 over RAIDERS
BRONCOS -3 over Chiefs
JETS +7.5 over Patriots
Packers +4 over EAGLES

Best Bets: 20-11
Texans +3, Jaguars +10, Falcons/Cardinals OVER 49

10-Point Teaser of the Week: 27-3
Patriots +2.5, 49ers +17.5, Falcons/Cardinals OVER 39

Others I Like: 54-6
Panthers +14, Rams +17.5, Packers +14, Giants +3, Giants/Browns OVER 34, Broncos/Chiefs UNDER 50

This Week: 3-0
2 Weeks Ago: 10-4

Overall: 82-61-5

Sunday, November 13, 2016

NFL Week 10 Picks

RAVENS -7.5 over Browns
JAGUARS +2.5 over Texans
Chiefs +3 over PANTHERS
Broncos +3 over SAINTS
Rams -1.5 over JETS
EAGLES PK over Falcons
Vikings +3 over REDSKINS
TITANS +3 over Packers
BUCCANEERS +3 over Bears
Dolphins +4.5 over CHARGERS
49ers +14 over CARDINALS
STEELERS -3 over Cowboys
Seahawks +7.5 over PATRIOTS
Bengals -1 GIANTS

Best Bets: 18-10
49ers +14, Buccaneers/Bears OVER 45, Steelers -3

10-Point Teaser of the Week: 24-3
Steelers +7, Buccaneers/Bears OVER 35, 49ers +24

Others I Like: 48-6
Broncos +13, Vikings +13, Eagles +10, Seahawks +17.5, Texans/Jaguars OVER 31, Saints/Broncos UNDER 61

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 7-5-2
Overall: 70-57-5

Sunday, November 6, 2016

NFL Week 9 Picks

Quick Picks because I had Tommy's wedding yesterday.

BUCCANEERS +4.5 over Falcons
VIKINGS -6 over Lions
Jaguars +7 over CHIEFS
GIANTS -3 over Eagles
BROWNS +7 over Cowboys
Jets +4 over DOLPHINS
RAVENS -3 over Steelers
49ERS +4.5 over Saints
RAMS +3 over Panthers
Colts +7 over PACKERS
Titans +4 over CHARGERS
RAIDERS PK over Broncos
Bills +7 over SEAHAWKS

Best Bets: 15-10
Bills +7, Raiders PK, Saints/49ers UNDER 54

10-Point Teaser of the Year: 22-2
Saints/49ers UNDER 64, Bills +17, Browns +17

Others I Like: 43-5
Raiders +10, Packers +3, Steelers +13, Eagles +13, Cowboys/Browns OVER 38.5, Chiefs/Jaguars OVER 34

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 9-4
Overall: 62-53-3

Saturday, October 29, 2016

NFL Week 8 Picks

After a couple of quick-pick weeks, it’s time to delve into some trends this season.
As I have been on for the past few years, The Opposite Theory is when a team that covered the week before is playing a team that did not cover the previous game. It had developed into a profitable trend.

This season it has had some ups and downs, but is still two games above .500 which is basically breaking even money-wise.

Home underdogs have been strong this year, posting a 19-11-1 record. So if you only bet $100 a game on the home dogs, then you would be up $700 for the season.

Touchdown favorites are 16-10-1 and double-digit favorites are 4-3. Those trends seem to not matter as much as in previous years.

Then there is the West Coast team playing East at a noon start. This used to be one of the best bets each week. However, these West Coast teams are 7-4.

So now that we are at the mid-point, I am going to see if there are any other trends to follow. The next few weeks might have some ups and downs as I experiment with them.

TITANS -3 over Jaguars
I forgot to Tweet it, but I bet it. Home teams are now 6-2 against the spread on Thursday night games. The only ones that did not cover were the weird New England/Buffalo  game with Jacoby Brissett starting, and the Arizona/San Francisco game which was just a massive talent gap.

Redskins +3 over Bengals (In London)
The last of the London games this season. Although it is nice to have football on for basically 14 hours straight, it does force you to wake up super early to get your bets, lineups and survivor picks set.

Packers +3 over FALCONS
Green Bay looked like they found something in the West-Coast stylized short passing attack. Their line is awful, but with Cobb, Adams and Montgomery, Aaron Rodgers can get his receivers YAC opportunity. They also have extra preparation time after a Thursday night game.

TEXANS -2.5 over Lions
Houston looked awful Monday night, mostly because they had Brock Osweiler slinging the ball around like he was in the Big XII. That is not the way that he is a successful quarterback. He is a game manager. Lamar Miller will get a massive workload as they control the flow of the game and keep Matthew Stafford off of the field.

SAINTS +3 over Seahawks
I am going with all of the home underdogs this week. Drew Brees at home is just a different player, no matter what defense he is facing. Seattle’s offense has looked like a mess all season.

BILLS +7 over Patriots
This is one you just have to grit your teeth and bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. It’s a TOT game, a home underdog, and a touchdown underdog. The Patriots haven’t gotten swept by a division foe since 2000, so hopefully Buffalo can just keep it close.

BROWNS +3 over Jets
This has to be the hardest week in memory for a Survivor pick. The biggest favorite is the previous game with all of those trends against it. The worst team, Cleveland, is at home against another one of the worst 4 or 5 teams. I think the Jets will be a popular pick, meaning Cleveland will win this TOT game.

BUCCANEERS PK over Raiders
The Raiders like to build up expectations then tear them down. Over 80% of all bets are on Oakland at this point. That high of a percentage has yielded a 6-8 record for the betters. Jameis Winston will tear the Oakland secondary apart and Mike Evans continues his sneaky-great start to the year.

COLTS +3 over Chiefs
Kansas City is another popular play this week. They have been on a roll since their demolition at the hands of Pittsburgh. However, the Chiefs’ pass rush is not what it used to be. If you give Andrew Luck time, he will be able to find lanes.

BRONCOS -4 over Chargers
I like the revenge factor here for Denver after losing at San Diego a couple of Thursdays ago. Devontae Booker is an upgrade over C.J. Anderson in the running game.

PANTHERS -3 over Cardinals
Easily the two most disappointing teams this season, something has to give. Arizona should be able to score on Carolina’s Jekyll and Hyde defense, but Carolina is in must-win mode.

Eagles +5 over COWBOYS
This line has gone 2.5 points too high. I think these teams are pretty equal, and Dallas has absolutely no home-field advantage. If I’m wrong though, and Dak breaks down the top DVOA-ranked team, we might have a real contender here.

BEARS +5 over Vikings
The last of five home underdogs and probably the other most-picked survivor game. The Eagles showed the massive weakness that is the Vikings’ offensive line. As I have heard, “bad lines don’t travel.” That basically means your offensive line can be hidden at home, but on the road they become more of a liability.

Best Bets: 13-9
Eagles +5, Redskins +3, Panthers/Cardinals OVER 46

10-Point Teaser of the Week: 19-2
Cardinals/Panthers OVER 36, Eagles +15, Patriots +3

Others I Like: 37-5
Redskins +13, Browns +13, Saints +13, Packers +13, Packers/Falcons OVER 42, Buccaneers/Raiders OVER 38

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 8-6-1
Overall: 54-48-3

TOT: 18-16-1