NFL Week 17 Picks

A dominant 12-4 last week has brought my season record to a nice 59% win clip.  Basically, if you bet $100 on every game I have said to, you made over $3,000 this season.  If you toss in my teasers for a hundred bucks a pop, you would be near $5,000.  Anyway, most trends (home underdog, double-digit underdog) have come back to the regression line, except for the NFC vs. AFC in which the NFC was a dominant 37-27, with no more inter-conference games until the Super Bowl.

            Week 17 is most definitely the hardest week to handicap.  Between teams that have nothing to play for because their playoff seed is locked up or their tee times are already being booked, no one but the head coaches know who is going to finish games for their teams.  You almost have to try to guess what will happen in the early games to see who will want to win the later games. 

BILLS -3 over Jets

Even if the Jets lost today, they will be 43-37 over their last five seasons, with only one sub-.500 and two trips to the AFC title game.  If they fire Rex Ryan they are stupid.  The problem has been and always will be quarterback.  Luckily, if they lose today and a couple of other games go their way, they might have a top 6 or 7 pick.  They could then roll the dice with whichever of Matt Barkeley or Geno Smith is still there that the Bills have not taken.

Dolphins +10 over PATRIOTS

New England needs a whole lot of help to improve their standing, and I do not see both the Texans and Broncos losing.  Therefore, Belichick will play his backups and the Dolphins will continue to play hard with their rookie quarterback trying to build momentum into the offseason.

Ravens +3 over BENGALS

I had originally wanted to take Cincinnati in this one, but the fact that they cannot improve their playoff standing led me to the Ravens.  Baltimore can possibly move up to the third seed should the Patriots lose so I think they will play a little bit harder today.

STEELERS -10 over Browns

It looks like Cleveland will be starting Thad Lewis at quarterback, who has never thrown a pass in the NFL.  It is always good to start your first game against the number one pass/overall defense in the league.  The Browns have been destroyed by injuries as of late, and I expect Trent Richardson not to play much either.  The Steelers will take their frustrations of the season out on the Browns.

COLTS +6 over Texans

Chuck. Strong.  I would be afraid to bet against the Colts as an underdog for the rest of the year.

TITANS -5 over Jaguars

Why on Earth would Tennessee with a gimpy Chris Johnson be favored 5 points against anyone?  The fact that this line is in the Vegas zone between 4 and 7 leads me to believe that Vegas knows something... so I will not go against that.

GIANTS -6.5 over Eagles

It is almost prophetic how this is working out for the Giants.  Should Washington win tonight (which they will because of Jerry’s deal with the devil), Minnesota lose (which they are an underdog against the second hottest team in football) and Chicago lose (which they are in free-fall mode) then New York sneaks into the playoffs with a win.  Does anyone actually not believe that all of this will happen?? I hate the Giants.

LIONS +3 over Bears

This is a complete reverse jinx pick so that my Super Bowl Pick from the preseason is still alive.

Packers -3 over VIKINGS

Green Bay needs a win to keep their first round bye, and they need to first round bye more than any other playoff teams sans the Cowboys.  They have been having injury issues all season, so that extra week could be the key cog in the Packers’ Super Bowl run.  Aaron Rodgers is somehow quietly dominating and no one is talking about it.  I would probably say that Green Bay is smart money for the Super Bowl right now.

FALCONS -3 over Bucs

This seems like one of those games where everyone thinks Atlanta will rest their starters, but they don’t.  With the first round bye locked up, I think Mike Smith will want to get his guys some extra work in this week and they get a healthy lead by the fourth quarter.

SAINTS -4 over Panthers

This could turn into a crazy shootout as neither defense is something to write home about and both quarterbacks have been putting up crazy stats.  Drew Brees might throw the ball 70 times as he tries to pad his meaningless statistics because that is what Drew Brees does.

Chiefs +17 over BRONCOS

As much as I am absolutely certain that Kansas City will lose this game, I just cannot give 17 points to anyone in the NFL.  Now who must the Chiefs draft number one overall in the worst top of the quarterback class in years?  There will be value signal callers in the second and third round, so they have got to go with Te’o to get a new face of the organization to replace position-wise the scarlet S of the team.

CHARGERS -8 over Raiders

Matt Leinart.  Terrelle Pryor.  Would you put any money with either of them?

49ERS -16.5 over Cardinals

It is not quite 17…. And I just cannot take Arizona with that quarterback situation.  San Francisco will not rest their players and they will try to make a statement.

SEAHAWKS -12 over Rams

Seattle has easily the best home field advantage in football, and I think it will definitely show.  The Rams are done for the season, and will hope to improve their draft position.

REDSKINS -3 over Cowboys

Even though the underdog has covered in 26 of the past 29 meetings… even though Tony Romo is playing out of his mind… even though RG3 is due for a bad game… even though Washington’s defense is probably even worse than the Cowboys’…. I just hate football.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Steelers PK, 49ers -6.5, Saints/Panthers Over 43

Others I Like:

Ravens +13, Packers +7, Seahawks -2, Colts +16, Cowboys/Redskins Over 39, Bills +6.5

Last Week: 12-4

Overall: 136-96-6

NFL Week 16 Picks

A solid week for me going 9-7 last week, although I made two more atrocious picks on the Giants and Bucs.  I looked too much into both games and went with trends that I had to sell myself on, rather than just looking at the teams themselves.  With that said, the leaders of the LVH Supercontest have established a winning trend with their pick margins, and the NFC had a dominant 5-1 record against the AFC last week.

Falcons -3.5 over LIONS

I bet on Atlanta last night because as good as Megatron has been, something has seemed off about Stafford.  He had one of the most prolific years in the history of the NFL last year, and it either got to his head, or his arm is getting worn out.  He has missed easy throws frequently and continues to force bad throws.  It is quite a troubling sign for Lions’ fans.

PACKERS -12.5 over Titans

Normally I would take the points in such a big spread for a team that has not had a 100-yard rusher in 41 games (and people really think Aaron Rodgers should not be considered the best QB in the league).  However, I am starting Chris Johnson in a fantasy championship so I am certain he will lay an absolute egg.

PANTHERS -9 over Raiders

As much as I think Carolina should not be favored that much against anyone, I am playing against Cam Newton in said fantasy championship, so he will most definitely go off today.  The Raiders also just are not very good and have given up, while the Panthers are mostly young and still wanting to get momentum for next season.

Bills +5 over DOLPHINS

Buffalo will bounce back from that horrendous “home” game last week.  Their players were feisty about having to play that game in Toronto and I think they will exact some revenge on a Miami team who has lost 5 of their last 7, including once to these Bills.  Oh, and I am starting Reggie Bush today.

Bengals +3 over STEELERS

Both teams have lost to the Cowboys in the last couple of weeks, but I have got to say that Cincinnati looked like the all-around better team.  They also have a better quarterback, and I do not think Andy Dalton is that great.  Romo and Roethlisberger showed some of their true colors last week: Romo makes plays to help his team win games; Roethlisberger depends on his teammates to make spectacular plays to bail him out.  Everyone has always touted Big Ben as some elite quarterback, when he was dependent on a non-pass interference call and a 100-yard interception return for a touchdown to win his two Super Bowls when his defense carried him to get there.  Over. Rated.

JAGUARS +14 over Patriots

Jacksonville is 2-2 against these big, double-digit spreads including covering at Houston and at Green Bay.  The Patriots will get up early, but Chad Henne has major backdoor cover potential with his two deep threats.

Colts -7 over CHIEFS

The Chiefs are just done for the season, and I cannot really blame them.  The problem is there is not a consensus number 1 pick for the upcoming draft, so they will either have to reach on a quarterback, or trade down.  I would just draft Mant Te’o just because he is an absolute beast.

Saints +3 over COWBOYS

It has been all or nothing with Drew Brees this years, as he has regressed into someone who just wants to throw for 400 yards, interceptions be damned.  You just know that he will have a good day in his home state, and it will probably feel like a home game inside the Death Star.  Oh wait, the Saints are not going to the playoffs?  Oh, ok the fake fans that call themselves the “Who Dat Nation” will not show up.

Redskins -6.5 over EAGLES

If the Giants lose, then those last two games lose a whole lot of meaning, but I still think RG3 will come back strong and lead the Redskins to a win.  Washington, unlike Dallas, has a good chance at the wild card.  If Washington wins today, and Seattle loses, then the Redskins will have the tiebreaker over all of the other wild card contending teams.

BUCS -3 over Rams

Josh Freeman will bounce back and Tampa Bay as a team will too after the horrendous performance last week against New Orleans.  Greg Schiano has that college coach mentality where he will not let his team go off into the night for the season.

RAVENS +3 over Giants

Evverrrryybody is on the Giants this week, but they fail to see what is really happening here: New York is going to lose today, setting up the NFC East Championship next week between Dallas and Washington.  Cowboys’ fans will get their annual nut-kick as RG3 leads a last second touchdown drive to send the Redskins to the playoffs.  Meanwhile, the other wild card contending teams falter, and the Giants pound the Eagles to get that last playoff spot and get to play the 49ers in the first round again.  We all know what happens after that.  I hate football.

TEXANS -8 over Vikings

The only reason I am taking that big number is because Adrian Peterson is the star of the Romosexual Tendencies so he will have his worst game of the year this week.  I am certain of this, especially with Calvin Johnson having a monster for us last night.  Fantasy Nut-kick: engaged.

BRONCOS -12 over Browns

The Browns screwed me last week with that pathetic performance against Kirk Cousins.  They are on the New York Jets’ sponsored No Pick List for the little remainder of the season.

Bears -6 over CARDINALS

Arizona’s sad sack quarterback situation cannot do it two weeks in a row, right?  I would say that the Bears defense has a huge day against them, but that is my defense, so betters beware...

49ers +1.5 over SEAHAWKS

This line was a Pick ‘Em, then moved early to San Francisco by 1 when the sharps jumped all over it.  The public then saw the line and though, “Seattle, at home getting points? I am on it!” not remembering the San Francisco beat the best team in the league last week, on the road.

Chargers +3 over JETS

I really do not like this pick, nor do I even want to pick it.  Both these teams just suck right now, but I will go against Greg McElroy.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Packers -1, Broncos -2, Cowboys/Saints Over 41.5

Others I Like:

Carolina +1, Patriots +4, Patriots/Jaguars Over 41, Colts +3, Redskins +4.5, Cardinals/Bears Under 48

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 9-7

Overall: 124-92-6

NFL Week 15 Picks

            I eked out an above-.500 week, at 8-7-1, but it included two of my worst picks ever: Seattle over Arizona and Houston over New England.  I did not realize just how bad Arizona was, and that is just my lack of caring about them in general.  I also have underestimated the Patriots offense and just how lethal it can be.  The trends had a decent week with one noticeable trend making a return.  The NFC was 4-0 against the spread last week in the inter-conference games.  I still believe that the NFC is the much better and deeper conference, but it is hard to know which games the AFC will actually show up for.

Bengals -3 over EAGLES

I picked this on Thursday in a Tweet, but I wanted to go on another rant.  I am done playing Fantasy Football when Team Defenses are involved.  It is just a freaking roll of the roulette wheel each week on seeing who is going to suck the most on offense.  All I had to do was win last week in a league to get the regular season championship prize, yet the Seahawks’ Defense scored 41 points.  This week, in the first round of the playoffs in another league, the Bengals’ Defense scored 45 points by the stupid scoring system (which the league commissioner who I was playing put in) and I am most likely out even though I dominated the rest of the league by over 100 points.  It is just stupid and I am done.

BEARS +2.5 over Packers

I am still on the bandwagon, although my feet are starting to slip.  Last week was tough with AP just going crazy again, but I think the defense will get pressure on Rodgers and the Bears can pull out the victory.

Giants +1 over FALCONS

Just like I said last week, everything will not work out in the Cowboys’ favor.  As Moneyball put it to me last night, what happens every season?  The Giants seems like they have no chance, then they do just enough to get into the playoffs.  Atlanta looks flawed and the only thing that can change that is Matt Ryan showing up late in the season.

Bucs +4 over SAINTS

Josh Freeman is on a tear right now and I am going to steal a stat from Grantland: if Freeman continues to have similar numbers like this season for the next five, he will have 32,000 yards and 225 touchdowns, putting him in the top 30 all-time for yards and top 24 for touchdowns.  He will be 29. 

Vikings +3 over RAMS

So a normal human being takes a full year to recover from a torn ACL.  Some professional athletes have pushed it to 9 months, but not many running backs.  Adrian Peterson is on pace to have over 1,800 yards rushing before the one year anniversary of his torn ACL. 

BROWNS -3 over Redskins

Another conversation I was involved in regarding the NFL was whether RG3 is going to be like Vick or not in regards to injury.  Would the odds not be higher to say that RG3 will not play a full 16 games every season than saying that he will? 

Jaguars +8 over DOLPHINS

This line just seems too high and I will take the value of getting a touchdown.  I also think Reggie Bush will have a terrible week since I am starting him in the Fantasy Playoffs.

Broncos -3 over RAVENS

I am not sold on the Ravens yet.  Peyton Manning is the best football player ever.  It costs you -130 to bet on the Ravens, yet the line has not moved past 3.  Vegas knows something.

TEXANS -10 over Colts

The sharps were all over this one when it was just 8, and it pushed the line to double digits.  I really think it is too high with the backdoor cover potential of Andrew Luck, but I will go with Vegas when it seems like they know something. 

Panthers +3 over CHARGERS

San Diego is not as good as they looked last week.  Carolina will get after Phillip Rivers and he will start doing Phillip Rivers things like throwing pick-sixes.  Cam Newton has come on in recent weeks and I expect it to continue against a weak Charger defense.

BILLS +5 over Seahawks

The Seattle to Toronto flight cannot be a fun one.  Let alone after a late Sunday game to play an early game the next Sunday.  I think the trend has value in west coast teams playing at noon on the east coast, and I will look at that more.

Lions -6 over CARDINALS

Arizona just sucks.  They have mailed it in and are ruining the career of Larry Fitzgerald.  If he was not such a stand up person he would have asked for a trade a long time ago.  He was on pace to be in the conversation for best receiver ever, but that torch has definitely been passed to the Transformer on the other sideline.

COWBOYS +1 over Steelers

I am sick of hearing how great of a quarterback the rapist is, and how terrible Romo is.  Why do Super Bowls make or break quarterbacks?  Roethlisberger has had a top-5 defense, top-10 rushing attack and a solid offensive line to get him to his three Super Bowls.  When he does not have that, he is all of a sudden not an elite quarterback.  Romo on the other hand, gets called out for not being clutch.  Who drove the team for a win last week?  Who drove the team to 10 feet on a field goal and a pinky finger from late-game winning drives that would have put the Cowboys in the drivers’ seat for the division?  279-of-403 passing for 3,279 yards and 23 touchdowns with only four interceptions. With a 108.6 rating (best in the NFL in that span).  Those are Romo’s numbers in December/January since 2009.  Come at me Romo haters because you all are just football-idiots.

RAIDERS -4 over Chiefs

This game is so meaningless that I am just picking against Brady Quinn.  I do not feel like researching it because betting on it is a coin flip.

49ers +4.5 over PATRIOTS

People who know things are all over the 49ers and have moved the line over two points.  I am going to side with these people and I do not think New England can destroy a top-5 defense in back-to-back weeks.

TITANS -1.5 over Jets

Sweet Monday Night Football game.  I am sticking to not picking the Jets again until someone not named Sanchez or Tebow is their quarterback.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Bucs/Saints Over 44, Packers/Bears Over 33, Bucs +14

Others I Like:

Jaguars +18, Jaguars/Dolphins Under 49, Colts +21, Lions/Cardinals Over 33, Steelers +11, 49ers +14.5

This week: 1-0

Last Week: 8-7-1

Overall: 115-85-6

NFL Week 14 Picks

I had a rough one last week, going 7-8-1, but I hit on two of my three teasers to salvage an even week.  The Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest is not giving as solid of trends as I had wanted.  Every aspect that I had been looking at crept back to even or just about last week.  The home dog by more than a touchdown was 1-0-1, but I did pick against that Thursday because the Raiders just suck. 

REDSKINS -2.5 over Ravens

The opposite theory has definite strength here, as the Redskins played one of their best games last week and Baltimore played one of its worst.  However, the world does not favor the Cowboys destiny ever since Jerry made his deal with the devil to win that last Super Bowl, and Dallas needs the Redskins to lose, so they certainly will not.

Chiefs +7 over BROWNS

Cleveland favored by a touchdown over a professional team?  I mean I know they have been playing well the past month or so, but seven is an awful lot.  Kansas City could have a sharp emotional backlash, but I am not sure that the Browns have an offense powerful enough to safely win a game by more than a touchdown.

Chargers +8 over STEELERS

Big Ben is back, but how healthy is he?  Charlie Batch screwed me last week showing either the depth of Pittsburgh or the ineptitude of Baltimore.  Either way, I do not think Ben will be near 100%, so I will take the touchdown+ of points.

COLTS -5 over Titans

Andrew Luck is starting to figure it all out, and at home in a dome is a perfect setup for a monster game.  Tennessee is reeling since their domination of the Dolphins, and they already lost to Luck two months ago at home.

JAGUARS +3 over Jets

I still am refusing to pick the Jets.  Especially when Mark Sanchez is still starting.  Also, especially when I can get a home dog getting a field goal.

Bears -3 over VIKINGS

I started typing the Vikings as the pick, then I remembered that I should not abandon the Bears; bandwagon just yet.  No Urlacher or Jennings could lead to AP having a huge game against the depleted defense. 

PANTHERS +3 over Falcons

Carolina was a last Cam Newton fumble away from beating Atlanta a few weeks ago, and that was in the Georgia Dome.  Cam has been on fire the past two weeks and the Falcons just do not really blow people out that often.  I will take the home dog and the points.

Eagles +8 over BUCS

I know, this pick does not make sense to me either.  Bryce Brown will have another huge game and Nick Foles actually looked quite competent last week.  Philly will be the prime candidate for a backdoor cover the rest of the season.  Also, the Eagles are the worst team in the league against the spread at 2-9-1 and Tampa is the best at 9-3.  Teams do not finish that bad/good against the number, so regression is due.

Rams +3 over BILLS

I am not buying into Buffalo, and taking a little of the opposite theory here.  I am also taking The Leg, Greg Zuerlein to kick another game winner from 50+, this time in the frigid atmosphere of Buffalo.

BENGALS -3.5 over Cowboys

As I said, God is not in the Cowboys’ favor right now.

Dolphins +10.5 over 49ERS

There is definitely some blowout potential, but I think this could be the end of Colin Kaepernick.  Alex Smith is the best option for this team.  It is almost as if Jim Harbaugh forgot that Smith had this team in the Super Bowl, if not for a rookie returner muffing two punts.

GIANTS -5 over Saints

It is going to be cold and rainy slowing Drew Brees and the Saints down a bit.  Also, see Cowboys, Dallas.

Cardinals +10 over SEAHAWKS

Seattle and Russell Wilson are good at home, and the Cardinals are still playing quarterback roulette.  However, Arizona kept it close last week on the road and I think Larry Fitzgerald has one more monster game in him this season as an eff you to the management for having arena league-level quarterbacks throwing him the ball. 

Lions +7 over PACKERS

Greeen Bay is still far from healthy and they got pretty lucky against the Vikings that Christian Ponder sucks so badly.  Minnesota showed the Packers’ weakness against the run, so I see a lot of Mikel Leshoure and short screens to Megatron.  The money line of +250 on the Lions is mighty intriguing.

Texans+3.5 over PATRIOTS

This will be a playoff-like atmosphere, leading me to the odds that it will be decided by a field goal or less.  With that said, I will gladly take the half-point of value and hope that the Texans get up big in the first half so I can hedge the Patriots and over in the second half.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Texans +13.5, Eagles/Bucs Over 38, Steelers/Chargers Under 50

Others I Like:

Chiefs +17, Titans/Colts Over 37, Bears/Vikings Over 29, Panthers +13, Bengals +7, Saints/Giants Under 64

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 7-8-1

Overall: 107-78-5