NFL Week 13 Picks

I had a strong week last week, going 11-4-1 and made myself a nice little sum with a couple of parlays.  Home-dogs were 4-3-1, and touchdown favorites were 2-1 against the number.  As I mentioned previously, I have been tracking the picks in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest, with some of the sharpest sharps in the country, and last week the top five most picked teams went 0-5 against the spread.  Since I started tracking the figures, the top five overall, the top five margins, and the margins overall are all below .500. 

The trends are not significant enough to bet on, but the trend that might have some substance is taking the top margins of the leaders.  By taking these margins, the leaders are hitting at about a 60% win rate, or every gambler’s goal.  The sample is still a little small, but you have to just look at the information for what it is: you can pick the minds of the smartest of the smart and compare them to each other.  This week, the top margins among the leaders are with San Francisco, Seattle, and Cincinnati.  These most also be taken with a grain of salt, as the lines they use are from Tuesday, and some have moved 2 or more points since then.

Saints +3.5 over FALCONS

I had this one wrong.  The Falcons had been just squeaking by and were not looking like they could cover the extra half point, let alone did I expect Drew Brees to follow one of his worst games of his career with THE worst game of his career.

BEARS -3 over Seahawks

The sharps are on this one and the line honestly seems a little low.  I have been on the Bears’ bandwagon all season and see no reason to get off against a rookie quarterback at home.  Chicago was solid last week (including their defense helping Corey and I get our asses kicked) and Seattle lost by three to a Miami team not on the level of Chicago.  With all that said, the line is still only three and the sharps are on it….

Vikings +7.5 over PACKERS

The Packers got destroyed by the Giants on Monday and are still in injury disarray.  I think Rodgers will get his team the victory on his birthday, but seven points is an awful lot.  A new trend that I want to look at is how often teams will lose consecutive games by double digits.  It has happened 16 time all season, with only once by a team that has a .500 record at this point.  It seems like a good bet, until you see that the one time a team above .500 lost consecutive double-digit games was by the Vikings.  I still think they can get the backdoor cover against the depleted Packers’ defense. 

RAMS +8 over 49ers

A home underdog of 8 or more points is 24-2 against the spread in the last few years.  That is an astounding trend that is very hard to bet against (the LVH Supercontest had it at just 7).  Colin Kaepernick has to have a bad game at some point right?  The 49ers Defense has to come back to Earth after their monster fantasy week (40 points!!!! Them and the Bears’ Defense cost us a grand).

Panthers -3 over CHIEFS

The line is not up anymore for obvious reasons.  Its impossible to tell how the game will play out of the two options.  Either Kansas City is jaded and in shock from the recent events and rollover, or they rally around their grief-stricken team, community and fans to victory.  I just know that my head could not be in the game on that team.

Cardinals +6 over JETS

I said I am not going to pick the Jets again and I am sticking to it.

Colts +7 over LIONS

Another line that seems a little high.  The Colts are not good on the road, but the Lions are just hard to figure out.  Their losses do not seem that bad when you consider the only loss to a below-.500 team was the fluky overtime loss to Tennessee.  They also have only one loss by more than a single score.  They also have only one win by more than a single score, so I will take the points.

Jaguars +6 over BILLS

Chad Henne has been surprisingly competent and Cecil Shorts has morphed into the guy that you are going to take two rounds too high next year in your fantasy draft to watch him average 4 points a game.  The Bills can score, but cannot stop anyone either.  With that horrid defense, I do not think they should give more than a field goal to anyone.

DOLPHINS +7 over Patriots

I had picked Miami at 7.5, but the line dropped to 7 and it suddenly seemed like one of those Patriot blowouts.  Tom Brady is in the zone, and the Dolphins have not seemed as strong lately.  However, I cannot go against the double trend of touchdown-home-underdog.

TITANS +7 over Texans

Another double-trend game in which it might make me look stupid.  There is definite blowout potential, but I have a strange feeling Chris Johnson breaks a long run or two to keep this closer than you think.

Bucs +7.5 over BRONCOS

Tampa Bay is still one of only two teams (Patriots) to not lose a game by more than a touchdown.  The line is more than a touchdown.  Although, there is some strong “Peyton Manning showing everyone why he is the best ever” potential, I think Josh Freeman can get the backdoor cover.

RAVENS -7 over Steelers

Charlie. Batch. The only thing I am worried about is that Baltimore does just enough to win the game.  The Ravens dodged a bullet last week and I think they will come back strong.

RAIDERS +1.5 over Browns

So we are at the point where Brandon Weeden is favored on the road.  Remember the stat about losing consecutive games by double digits? Well the Raiders have done that three consecutive weeks.  I think they buck that trend this week though and beat the Browns.

Bengals -1 over CHARGERS

The Bengals are on a roll, led by Andy Dalton.  They have won three in a row by a combined 64 points with Andy Dalton throwing nine touchdowns to zero interceptions.  Now while two of those teams might be in the bottom four in the league (Chiefs/Raiders), Cincinnati has beaten them convincingly.  San Diego has not beaten anyone besides Kansas City since week 2, and the fourth and 29 give-up might signal the end of them trying this season.

Eagles +11 over COWBOYS

I do not think Dallas will beat anyone by more than 10 without the help of three non-offensive touchdowns.  Now what are the odds that they get said touchdowns twice against the same team?  Bryce Brown looks like a possible stud and really worries me for the future encounters with the dreaded and feared.  Would it not be just like this Dallas team to lose a game, favored by 11 points, to a team without its top three offensive players starting a rookie quarterback and a rookie running back?  Moreover, if the games involving the teams the Cowboys are in wild card contention with go the way of the favorites, then the Cowboys just have to win to be tied for the second wild card spot….. The Eagles money-line is looking better and better.

Giants -3 over REDSKINS

RG3 was spectacular last week, but his receivers also bailed him out some.  Let us also not forgot how badly the Redskins’ defense looked and were it not for a key Dez fumble, that game is a complete toss-up.  Eli is about to start doing his Eli things as the calendar has turned to December.

10-Point Teaser of the Week: Texans +3, Patriots +3, Bucs/Broncos over 40

Other Options: Packers +2.5, 49ers +2, Cardinals/Jets under 48, Patriots/Dolphins over 41, Broncos +2.5, Bengals +9

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 11-4-1

Overall: 100-70-4