NFL Week 14 Picks

I had a rough one last week, going 7-8-1, but I hit on two of my three teasers to salvage an even week.  The Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest is not giving as solid of trends as I had wanted.  Every aspect that I had been looking at crept back to even or just about last week.  The home dog by more than a touchdown was 1-0-1, but I did pick against that Thursday because the Raiders just suck. 

REDSKINS -2.5 over Ravens

The opposite theory has definite strength here, as the Redskins played one of their best games last week and Baltimore played one of its worst.  However, the world does not favor the Cowboys destiny ever since Jerry made his deal with the devil to win that last Super Bowl, and Dallas needs the Redskins to lose, so they certainly will not.

Chiefs +7 over BROWNS

Cleveland favored by a touchdown over a professional team?  I mean I know they have been playing well the past month or so, but seven is an awful lot.  Kansas City could have a sharp emotional backlash, but I am not sure that the Browns have an offense powerful enough to safely win a game by more than a touchdown.

Chargers +8 over STEELERS

Big Ben is back, but how healthy is he?  Charlie Batch screwed me last week showing either the depth of Pittsburgh or the ineptitude of Baltimore.  Either way, I do not think Ben will be near 100%, so I will take the touchdown+ of points.

COLTS -5 over Titans

Andrew Luck is starting to figure it all out, and at home in a dome is a perfect setup for a monster game.  Tennessee is reeling since their domination of the Dolphins, and they already lost to Luck two months ago at home.

JAGUARS +3 over Jets

I still am refusing to pick the Jets.  Especially when Mark Sanchez is still starting.  Also, especially when I can get a home dog getting a field goal.

Bears -3 over VIKINGS

I started typing the Vikings as the pick, then I remembered that I should not abandon the Bears; bandwagon just yet.  No Urlacher or Jennings could lead to AP having a huge game against the depleted defense. 

PANTHERS +3 over Falcons

Carolina was a last Cam Newton fumble away from beating Atlanta a few weeks ago, and that was in the Georgia Dome.  Cam has been on fire the past two weeks and the Falcons just do not really blow people out that often.  I will take the home dog and the points.

Eagles +8 over BUCS

I know, this pick does not make sense to me either.  Bryce Brown will have another huge game and Nick Foles actually looked quite competent last week.  Philly will be the prime candidate for a backdoor cover the rest of the season.  Also, the Eagles are the worst team in the league against the spread at 2-9-1 and Tampa is the best at 9-3.  Teams do not finish that bad/good against the number, so regression is due.

Rams +3 over BILLS

I am not buying into Buffalo, and taking a little of the opposite theory here.  I am also taking The Leg, Greg Zuerlein to kick another game winner from 50+, this time in the frigid atmosphere of Buffalo.

BENGALS -3.5 over Cowboys

As I said, God is not in the Cowboys’ favor right now.

Dolphins +10.5 over 49ERS

There is definitely some blowout potential, but I think this could be the end of Colin Kaepernick.  Alex Smith is the best option for this team.  It is almost as if Jim Harbaugh forgot that Smith had this team in the Super Bowl, if not for a rookie returner muffing two punts.

GIANTS -5 over Saints

It is going to be cold and rainy slowing Drew Brees and the Saints down a bit.  Also, see Cowboys, Dallas.

Cardinals +10 over SEAHAWKS

Seattle and Russell Wilson are good at home, and the Cardinals are still playing quarterback roulette.  However, Arizona kept it close last week on the road and I think Larry Fitzgerald has one more monster game in him this season as an eff you to the management for having arena league-level quarterbacks throwing him the ball. 

Lions +7 over PACKERS

Greeen Bay is still far from healthy and they got pretty lucky against the Vikings that Christian Ponder sucks so badly.  Minnesota showed the Packers’ weakness against the run, so I see a lot of Mikel Leshoure and short screens to Megatron.  The money line of +250 on the Lions is mighty intriguing.

Texans+3.5 over PATRIOTS

This will be a playoff-like atmosphere, leading me to the odds that it will be decided by a field goal or less.  With that said, I will gladly take the half-point of value and hope that the Texans get up big in the first half so I can hedge the Patriots and over in the second half.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Texans +13.5, Eagles/Bucs Over 38, Steelers/Chargers Under 50

Others I Like:

Chiefs +17, Titans/Colts Over 37, Bears/Vikings Over 29, Panthers +13, Bengals +7, Saints/Giants Under 64

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 7-8-1

Overall: 107-78-5