NFL Week 17 Picks

A dominant 12-4 last week has brought my season record to a nice 59% win clip.  Basically, if you bet $100 on every game I have said to, you made over $3,000 this season.  If you toss in my teasers for a hundred bucks a pop, you would be near $5,000.  Anyway, most trends (home underdog, double-digit underdog) have come back to the regression line, except for the NFC vs. AFC in which the NFC was a dominant 37-27, with no more inter-conference games until the Super Bowl.

            Week 17 is most definitely the hardest week to handicap.  Between teams that have nothing to play for because their playoff seed is locked up or their tee times are already being booked, no one but the head coaches know who is going to finish games for their teams.  You almost have to try to guess what will happen in the early games to see who will want to win the later games. 

BILLS -3 over Jets

Even if the Jets lost today, they will be 43-37 over their last five seasons, with only one sub-.500 and two trips to the AFC title game.  If they fire Rex Ryan they are stupid.  The problem has been and always will be quarterback.  Luckily, if they lose today and a couple of other games go their way, they might have a top 6 or 7 pick.  They could then roll the dice with whichever of Matt Barkeley or Geno Smith is still there that the Bills have not taken.

Dolphins +10 over PATRIOTS

New England needs a whole lot of help to improve their standing, and I do not see both the Texans and Broncos losing.  Therefore, Belichick will play his backups and the Dolphins will continue to play hard with their rookie quarterback trying to build momentum into the offseason.

Ravens +3 over BENGALS

I had originally wanted to take Cincinnati in this one, but the fact that they cannot improve their playoff standing led me to the Ravens.  Baltimore can possibly move up to the third seed should the Patriots lose so I think they will play a little bit harder today.

STEELERS -10 over Browns

It looks like Cleveland will be starting Thad Lewis at quarterback, who has never thrown a pass in the NFL.  It is always good to start your first game against the number one pass/overall defense in the league.  The Browns have been destroyed by injuries as of late, and I expect Trent Richardson not to play much either.  The Steelers will take their frustrations of the season out on the Browns.

COLTS +6 over Texans

Chuck. Strong.  I would be afraid to bet against the Colts as an underdog for the rest of the year.

TITANS -5 over Jaguars

Why on Earth would Tennessee with a gimpy Chris Johnson be favored 5 points against anyone?  The fact that this line is in the Vegas zone between 4 and 7 leads me to believe that Vegas knows something... so I will not go against that.

GIANTS -6.5 over Eagles

It is almost prophetic how this is working out for the Giants.  Should Washington win tonight (which they will because of Jerry’s deal with the devil), Minnesota lose (which they are an underdog against the second hottest team in football) and Chicago lose (which they are in free-fall mode) then New York sneaks into the playoffs with a win.  Does anyone actually not believe that all of this will happen?? I hate the Giants.

LIONS +3 over Bears

This is a complete reverse jinx pick so that my Super Bowl Pick from the preseason is still alive.

Packers -3 over VIKINGS

Green Bay needs a win to keep their first round bye, and they need to first round bye more than any other playoff teams sans the Cowboys.  They have been having injury issues all season, so that extra week could be the key cog in the Packers’ Super Bowl run.  Aaron Rodgers is somehow quietly dominating and no one is talking about it.  I would probably say that Green Bay is smart money for the Super Bowl right now.

FALCONS -3 over Bucs

This seems like one of those games where everyone thinks Atlanta will rest their starters, but they don’t.  With the first round bye locked up, I think Mike Smith will want to get his guys some extra work in this week and they get a healthy lead by the fourth quarter.

SAINTS -4 over Panthers

This could turn into a crazy shootout as neither defense is something to write home about and both quarterbacks have been putting up crazy stats.  Drew Brees might throw the ball 70 times as he tries to pad his meaningless statistics because that is what Drew Brees does.

Chiefs +17 over BRONCOS

As much as I am absolutely certain that Kansas City will lose this game, I just cannot give 17 points to anyone in the NFL.  Now who must the Chiefs draft number one overall in the worst top of the quarterback class in years?  There will be value signal callers in the second and third round, so they have got to go with Te’o to get a new face of the organization to replace position-wise the scarlet S of the team.

CHARGERS -8 over Raiders

Matt Leinart.  Terrelle Pryor.  Would you put any money with either of them?

49ERS -16.5 over Cardinals

It is not quite 17…. And I just cannot take Arizona with that quarterback situation.  San Francisco will not rest their players and they will try to make a statement.

SEAHAWKS -12 over Rams

Seattle has easily the best home field advantage in football, and I think it will definitely show.  The Rams are done for the season, and will hope to improve their draft position.

REDSKINS -3 over Cowboys

Even though the underdog has covered in 26 of the past 29 meetings… even though Tony Romo is playing out of his mind… even though RG3 is due for a bad game… even though Washington’s defense is probably even worse than the Cowboys’…. I just hate football.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Steelers PK, 49ers -6.5, Saints/Panthers Over 43

Others I Like:

Ravens +13, Packers +7, Seahawks -2, Colts +16, Cowboys/Redskins Over 39, Bills +6.5

Last Week: 12-4

Overall: 136-96-6