Saturday, December 8, 2012

The Heisman: Valuable or Offensive?


Well it is Heisman Trophy season with only one college football game on today, so I thought I would dive into the race for the most prestigious award in college sports.  This has been a quite interesting season for the Heisman, as there have been three guys who were almost guaranteed to win the award at one point or another, yet not one of those three are in my top 4.

5.  Collin Klein, QB, Kansas State, Senior
2,490 yards, 15 TD, 7 INT, 66.2% 156.1 rating Passing; 890 yards, 22 TD, 4.6 AVG Rushing

The self-proclaimed “Optimus Klein” is the most over-rated football player around.  People think he is a dual threat quarterback who is also versatile.  He is not.  He makes pee-wee type reads in the passing game, and gets the benefit of the doubt of a great system, phenomenal offensive line, and receivers that get YAC like taking candy from a baby.  There were a number of times where Klein would run untouched into the end zone (I think about 5 were against the Red Raiders alone) because the defense was more worried about the running backs Kansas State has.  Perspective: Bryce Brown could not get on the field at K-State last season because their running back corps was so deep and talented.  Coming from an inside source who has played against Klein twice, the defense is not focused on Klein, as his girly like throwing motion will get him into trouble (See: Baylor game).  The defensive game plan was revolved around stopping the other running backs, and short screens.  Klein probably should not be on the list at all, but I really want to rant about how over-rated he is.

4. Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State, Sophomore
2,039 yards, 15 TD, 6 INT, 58.3%, 140.5 rating Passing; 1,271 yards, 13 TD, 5.6 AVG Rushing
           
If Ohio State were not on a post-season ban then Miller would probably be a favorite to win the award right now to most people (a major flaw in the system, as some people use Hype to vote on the award, rather than the most valuable player to his team).  Either way, Miller has to be on the short list for next season as he has seemingly mastered Urban Meyer’s offense in less than a year.  I honestly think that the key factor in the Buckeyes luring Urban Meyer in the first place was the prospect of getting to coach Braxton Miller for three seasons.
            Miller is actually comparing quite well to Tim Tebow’s sophomore season in which he did win the Heisman.  The passing numbers are not as close, but Miller also did not have to throw nearly as much as Tebow did that season.  What keeps Miller on the Tebow level is his running ability.  Tebow never rushed for over a thousand yards in a season and his touchdown totals were ballooned because the Gators did not have a goal-line back.  With a full off-season under his belt, I would have to tab Miller as my odds-on favorite to win the award next season no matter what happens with a certain Mr. Football.

3.   Marqise Lee, WR, USC, Sophomore
112 Catches, 1,680 yards, 14 TD, 15.0 AVG; 106 yards rushing, 8.8 AVG
           
Lee leads the nation in catches, is second in yards, and third in touchdowns.  No other receiver is in the top three in all the categories.  He has done this in the USC Pro-style offense, which does not sling the ball around nearly as much as West Virginia or Baylor.  Lee also passes the eye test: when you watch USC, every single play there is a hope that Lee gets the ball because every time he touches the ball there is a chance of something spectacular happening.  He definitely has the Reggie Bush x-factor.
            Lee also proved himself to be a team player, as he volunteered to play defense when the Trojans defensive backs were struggling so mightily.  The amount of double coverage he receiver helped Robert Woods have another solid year.  Lee would be a surefire top-10, maybe even top-5 pick if he were eligible for the draft this year.  So what that really means is that the most dynamic playmaker in the country will be back next year.

2.  Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M, Freshman
3,419 yards, 24 TD, 8 INT, 68.3%, 155.9 Rating Passing; 1,181 yards, 19 TD, 6.4 AVG Rushing
1.      Manti Te’o, LB, Notre Dame, Senior
101 Tackles, 46 Solo, 5.5 TFL, 2 Sacks, 7 Interceptions, 11 Passes Deflected, 1 Fumble Recovery

            Johnny Manziel/Football has dazzled in his first season at the helm of Kevin Sumlin and Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, breaking the all-time record for offense in the SEC set by Cam Newton a couple of years ago.  This accomplishment against the “vaunted” SEC defenses has voters just handing him the Heisman without really analyzing his season.
            First off, the offense that Sumlin/Kingsbury brought to A&M is the same offense that Texas Tech has been running for years.  You know, that offense where quarterbacks are labeled “system quarterbacks” so their statistics do not mean as much.  The main difference is with Manziel, they have added a running element to the quarterback position, which is a big upgrade.  However, Manziel’s passing numbers are not in the same league as the previous quarterbacks to run the offense.  By the logic that he should win the award this year, there should also then be a Heisman sitting on Graham Harrell’s mantle.
            This is where the SEC fans start ranting about how hard their conference is and how tough the defenses are.  Sorry to break it to you, but the SEC was actually quite top heavy this season, in terms of team and defense.  Manziel only had to face three top 48 defenses all season.  He also had the privilege of A&M’s atrocious non-conference schedule that included two FCS teams, SMU, and the worst defense in the country, Louisiana Tech.  In those four games Manziel put up 35% of his total yards for the season, and over 51% of his total touchdowns.  To delve even further into the statistics, against the top 48 defenses that the Aggies faced, Manziel only average 297 yards and a single touchdown per game. 
            Now I know that stats are not the end-all be-all when it comes to the Heisman, but the statistics let you in on the fact that A&M lost two of those three games against top defenses.  Manziel did have a brilliant performance to beat Alabama, but in the other two games he was far from good.  The first game against Florida was his first start ever, but the Heisman should not distinguish class, therefore every game counts the same.  The LSU game was just dreadful for Johnny Football as he turned the ball over three teams and did not produce a single touchdown.  So in the Aggies’ biggest three games of the year, Manziel was great in one, but bad in the other two.
            Manti Te’o on the other hand, has been the epitome of valuable to the number one team in the nation.  Te’o’s statistics alone put him in the Heisman conversation.  Over a hundred tackles and seven interceptions is unheard of for a middle linebacker.  It is hard to find stats from more than twenty or so years ago but from I could find, no linebacker has ever been in the top two in the nation for interceptions.  Some people have criticized his lack of fumble productivity and cited the artist formerly known as the Honey Badger.  Well I would argue that point by asking how many times the person had seen Te’o miss a tackle.  He is the best pure tackler to come along in years, and he uses near perfect form.  He does not just try to strip the ball as if it were a marijuana blunt.  He secures the tackle and ends the journey, like he is supposed to.
            Te’o’s real value goes beyond the statistics though.  If you go back and watch Notre Dame’s games, especially the ones later in the year, the opposing offenses would send at least two, sometimes three blockers at Te’o.  This opened up lanes for his fellow linebackers and allowed the Irish defensive lineman to go unblocked.  His presence alone caused offenses to not perform at their optimum level because they were so worried about Te’o blowing up their play.
            Most importantly, Te’o has come up big when his team needed him most.  Notre Dame has had five games that were close, and Te’o made the defining play in all of them.  Against a very under-rated Michigan team (do you realize they have four losses, but three were to the top three teams in the country?) he had two interceptions, one that iced the game.  Te’o led the goal line stand against top-ten team Stanford that secured the overtime victory.  He followed that win up with a key interception against BYU to hold on to the Irish victory.  The following week he had another game-icing interception on the road against top-10 Oklahoma.  The next week he led a goal-line stand against Pittsburgh in the only Irish close call against a bad team.  Lastly, he provided the signature goal-line stand against USC on the road to preserve the perfect record.
            While off-the-field issues do not factor into the Heisman race, Te’o’s off the field troubles translated into on-the-field success.  I mean the guy lost his girlfriend, and grandmother who was basically his mom within four days of each other, and still led his team to a victory over a top ten team, on the road.  His will to win and do so no matter what else is going on has translated to the rest of that team.  They see that their leader can fight through the worst things imaginable, so their focus was turned strictly to winning. 
I fully expect Johnny Football to be announced as the Heisman Trophy winner tonight.  I do not agree with it, and it should officially coincide with the changing of the specifications of the award to the best offensive player, rather than just best player.  I firmly believe that if you replace Te’o with anyone else in the country, Notre Dame struggles to even get to 6-6.  Instead, he has them undefeated and in the National Championship Game.  The same can not be sad for Manziel, as I think a number of guys could have gotten them to nine or ten wins.  If this is truly an award for value and who has had the best season, then how can the heart, soul and leader of the number one team in the country, who also has phenomenal statistics, not win?  It is okay with Te’o though, because losing tonight will only fuel his fire more to get the win that actually matters.

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