I finished the
regular season with another solid, profitable week, and now I look to build on
that in the playoffs. If you would have
bet $100 on every pick I made, then you would be up almost $2,000 at this
point. If you would have bet on the
teasers as well for $100 each, then that would have added another $700. More importantly, since I developed The
Opposite Theory mid-season, if you bet $100 on each TOT game you would be up
over $1,500 off of just those.
Cardinals (11-5) +7 over PANTHERS (7-8-1)
I’ve added the
records for the teams in there because it sometimes gets forgotten what each
team did in the regular season. Now this
is a very intriguing matchup gambling wise: I mean how often is a sub-.500 team
favored a touchdown over an 11-win team?
How often does a team use four different quarterbacks, yet still win 11
games? How often are you completely
mortified to bet on either quarterback in a playoff game?
What
do we know? We know that Arizona has a
better defense, maybe the best overall unit in the league to help limp this
team to 11 wins. We know that Carolina
is flawed at both wide receiver and their secondary. We know that Arizona has weaknesses at
running back, and most importantly quarterback.
We know that Cam Newton was in a serious car wreck less than two weeks
ago. We know that Carolina only has one
win over a playoff team. We know that
Arizona’s only win over a playoff team was against a Romo-less Dallas
squad. We know that Arizona has not
scored more than 18 points in a game since November 9th, and
Carolina’s offense has not scored more than 21 since October 12th. We know that this is almost a TOT game
because Carolina blew out Atlanta while Arizona lost to San Francisco (but
managed to cover).
With
all that we know, I think the only option is the take the points or pass. I know that betting against Ryan Lindley is
very enticing, but do you really want to give a touchdown to the Cardinals’
defense with the Panthers’ offense? This
game has 13-10 written all over it. It’s
a complete and total toss-up so the points are the value. Take the under.
Ravens (10-6) +3.5 over STEELERS (11-5)
This
is technically a TOT game, as last week Baltimore failed to cover against
Conner Shaw in his first start ever, while Pittsburgh won comfortably over
Cincinnati. The questions start with how
can the Steelers maintain their high level of offensive play without their key
cog Le’veon Bell? Will Ben Tate and Dri
Archer be able to fill his shoes? Will
the Ravens suspect secondary be ready to face the multiple deep threats that
the Steelers can throw to? Can Justin
Forsett bounce back from a disappointing end to his career season?
What do we
know? We know that each team beat the
other by 20 points on their home field.
We know that the higher scoring game favors Baltimore. We know that Pittsburgh went 5-1 against
playoff teams. We know Baltimore went
2-4 against playoff teams. We know that
7 of the previous 11 games between these two teams prior to this year were
decided by 3 points exactly. We know
that Pittsburgh had the second most prolific offense in the league this
season. We know that no matter who plays
more at running back for the Steelers, they cannot do what Bell has done over
the past five weeks.
Once the Bell news
came out this morning that he was for sure out, the line did not move at
all. I think Vegas had built him being
out already into the spread. With that
said, I think it will have a major impact.
Baltimore’s secondary is not good by any means, but if they can add an
extra defensive back with a Cover 2-Man umbrella over the top, it will really
limit the big-play ability of Pittsburgh.
With no Bell the keep the Ravens front seven honest, I think this will
happen and Baltimore can keep the game close.
Bengals (10-5-1) +3.5 over COLTS (11-5)
We
have our second TOT game of the first round of the playoffs, but before I
blindly pick it there needs to be a little analysis since I have no TOT
evidence in the playoffs. The biggest
questions: which Indianapolis Colts team will show up- the one that almost gets
shut out by Dallas or the one that trounced this same Bengals team earlier this
year? Can Andy Dalton step up in a
prime-time game? Will A.J. Green be
fully healthy? Will any running back for
Indy get more than 2.5 yards per carry?
Will this be the year that Andrew Luck makes a leap in not just the
regular season but playoff performance as well?
Can the aged secondary of Cincinnati hold up against the talented wide
receivers of Indianapolis? Can Andy
Dalton take advantage of the inconsistent secondary of the Colts?
What
do we know? We know that the Colts beat
Cincinnati 27-0 in Indianapolis already this year. We know that the Colts’ went 2-4 against
other playoff teams. We know that
Cincinnati went 3-4-1 against other playoff teams, playing half of their
schedule against tough competition. We
know that the Indianapolis played against four quarterbacks this season who are
in the conversation for “Elite” and gave up almost 42 points in each game. We know Andy Dalton is not elite. We know that no running back on the Colts has
averaged over 3.0 yards per carry this season.
On
the surface, this would seem similar to the Panthers/Cardinals game: who
wouldn’t want to bet against Andy Dalton on the road? However, the Bengals have played arguably the
toughest schedule in the league, and come out with a strong record. I also think that beating a team twice in one
season including the playoffs is much more difficult than it gets credit
for. What tends to happen is the team
that won tries to rely on the things that won them the first game, while the
team that lost has remedied those weaknesses in preparation for the game. If Green plays, he dominates; if he sits, the rest of the team rallies around him. Either way, I like the Bengals here.
Lions (11-5) +7 over COWBOYS (12-4)
This
is another TOT game after Detroit blew its chance at a division title against
Green Bay and Dallas decimated Washington.
This is the biggest line of the weekend (I am buying the half point for
Arizona from 6.5), but may end up being the most exciting. Can Matthew Stafford win a big road
game? Will Suh play with a
vengeance? Can Zack Martin assert his
dominance as the best guard in the league as a rookie? Is DeMarco Murray worn down after 400+
touches? Will Tony Romo finally get over
the stigma attached to him? Can Jason
Garrett make big-time decisions under the brightest of lights? Who will assert their dominance between
Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant? Can the
Cowboys defense hold up in a big game?
What
do we know? We know that Dallas has one
of the best offensive lines in football.
We know that Dallas was 2-1 against playoff teams and Detroit was 1-4. We know that Matthew Stafford is 0-16 in his
career on the road against a team with a winning record. We know that the last time these two teams
played, Megatron had over 300 yards in arguably the best game by a wide
receiver ever. We know that this year
that same Transformer has not been close to the level he was playing at last
year. We know that Detroit has one of
the best defensive lines in football. We
know that Detroit has the best duo of pass catching running backs in the
league. We know that the Cowboys have
struggled with running backs catching the ball out of the backfield. We know that Dallas has dominated in time of
possession all season.
I
think the Suh suspension being rescinded changed the whole game. Without him in the middle, I imagine DeMarco
running for a buck-fifty and the Cowboys cruising. With him clogging up lanes I’m not so sure it
will be that easy. The thing about
Megatron is it took 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns… and the Lions still
needed a clock-stopping penalty by Dallas and a last second touchdown, all in
Detroit. He can have a huge day and the
Cowboys still win. If Suh has a monster
day though, it will be tough sledding the league’s leading rusher and
passer. A touchdown is just too much to
give in a game with this much backdoor cover potential. Even if the Cowboys are up 13 with less than
a minute left, I can totally see Stafford airing one out for a cheap late
touchdown.
10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Lions +17, Ravens/Steelers OVER 34,
Cardinals/Panthers UNDER 49.5
Others I Like:
Cardinals +17, Ravens +13.5,
Steelers +6.5
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 119-95-2
TOT Last Week: 2-1
TOT Season: 35-18
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