Super Bowl Pick and Props

            I am on a two-year run of really seeing the flow of the Super Bowl after picking Flacco to pick apart the 49ers and the Seahawks to use their defensive line to get pressure on Manning and force him into mistakes.  Many pundits, analysts, and amateurs alike are all talking about how close of a game this year is and that it is one of the best overall matchups in a while.  People are even going as far as to say that no one “knows” who is going to win, it is all just a guess.

            Newsflash: almost every NFL game is a “guess”.  The best handicappers in the world play in the LVH SuperContest where they put thousands of dollars on the line to pick whichever five NFL games a week they want against the spread.  The winner every year barely cracks 70% and the majority fall below 50% of correctly picked games.  In reality, outside of a major hot streak the preeminent handicappers will only hit 60% with NFL games (all of this is against the spread, which is all that should matter).  The parity of talent is just too strong that if the winner of this game plays the first-pick-holding Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a neutral field, they probably only win seven or so times, and cover about half of the time. 

            When picking a single NFL game I do not worry about who would win the single game: I look more for who will cover more if they played ten times on that same field.  In a single game you can have pass interference go for or against you in the biggest of situations, or one of the greatest catches in NFL Playoff history not count (yes I am still bitter, and yes that is why I haven’t written the past couple of weeks).  Any two NFL teams are too close in talent to factor in what could happen in a single game, so I focus on what should happen. 

            The perfect example is the safety to open the game last year.  What if the center doesn’t spazz out on the first series of the game and Denver drives down and scores?  Could the outcome have been drastically different?  Two years ago, there were a couple of questionable blocks on the Jacoby Jones touchdown return as well as a disputed no-call on Crabtree at the end of the game.  If either of these go the other way, then San Francisco probably wins that game.  The point is that if one of these fluky things had gone the other way then should turns into could.  That is just the way of the NFL and is what makes it so great.  At the same time, I will still offer my opinion on what should happen Sunday night and make a firm stance on which team will win the game.

When Seattle Has the Ball:

            The most prevalent misconception about the actual gameplay for this Super Bowl is the age-old false causation, “If you run the ball well on the Patriots then you can beat them.”  Running the ball does not cause wins, winning the game causes rushing the football (just as losing will call a lack of rushing attempts). 

            The Patriots have won eleven games by a touchdown or more this season, and in all but one of them the other team failed to rush for 92 yards (the one exception being a fluky Chicago game in which they were down by 31 at the half and just handed it off to end the game as quickly as possible).  In six of those wins New England had a halftime lead of 10 or more, and 17 or more in five of them.  When you are down that much at the half to a high-scoring offense, odds are slim that there will be many rushes in the second half.  In the other blowout wins by the Patriots they pulled away early in the third quarter to give a similar flow to the game with an average final margin of almost three touchdowns. 

            When teams have rushed for more than 100 yards this season (seven times not including Chicago) against New England, the opponent had either a half time lead or final winning margin of a at least a touchdown.  Once again, the flow of the game dictates that the opponents were rushing the ball and not that it was more effective.  In fact, of the top-5 rushing outputs against the Patriots this season, three were New England wins.

What This Means:

            I think Marshawn Lynch will be effective running the ball on Sunday.  I do not think that this effectiveness will lead to many points.  New England’s defense is sneakily staunch.  They have played nine of their last ten games against teams with non-losing records and only once has an opponent scored more than 26 points, with a 17.4 point average.  That stretch includes four games against top-5 scoring offenses (including the top 2) with an average yield of just 14 points.  New England should stop Seattle’s offense and keep them under 20 points.

When New England Has the Ball:

            Seattle has had the best defense in the league for three years running now, and quite possibly one of the best in the last 15 years.  Everyone knows about their vaunted secondary of mostly late round picks that have jelled together to put fear in opposing receivers as the Legion of Boom.  How will the hyped passing attack of New England be able to complete any passes against such a firm secondary? 

            The Seahawks led the league in every opposing passing and receiving category imaginable except one: tight end production.  Seattle actually gave up the third most touchdowns to tight ends of any team in the league.  They also were in the middle of the pack in yards, and in the bottom quarter in catch percentage.  When facing the elite level of tight end offenses led by the best in the game (Antonio Gates, Julius Thomas and Jason Witten), Seattle gave up 5.7 catches for 57.3 yards and 2.3 touchdowns a game.  Let that sink in for a minute….

            So against elite tight ends, Seattle gave up MORE THAN TWO TOUCHDOWNS a game this season.  Now they face the best tight end in the league that happens to hold the record for most touchdowns over the first two seasons in a career as well as the most touchdowns in a single season by any tight end in NFL history.  Seattle obviously knows these stats as well, so what will they do to remedy it?

            The Seahawks make their money on playing a single high safety look with basically one-on-one on the outside.  They can do this because they have the best free safety in the league, Earl Thomas, and the best lockdown corner Richard Sherman.  This flexibility combined with a strong front four that can get pressure without a blitz (as noted last year) allows the other four defensive players to play with a great deal of freedom.  Usually, there will only be two receivers in their area to cover for the four defenders which allows strong safety Kam Chanchellor to take chances on big hits.  Whenever a more athletic/wily tight end is on the field, he has been able to take advantage of these risky moves.

            With the size of the Patriots receivers, Seattle would normally be able to get away with putting Byron Maxwell on Edelman and the backup corners Tharold Simon and Jeremy Lane on Amendola/LaFell leaving Sherman to match up with Gronkowski.  Not only does Seattle not like to match up, but the injuries to Sherman and Thomas make them less of physical threats than they are normally.  I believe that they are down playing the significance of those injuries and we will see the evidence Sunday night.

What This Means:

            I think Gronk is going to have a big day.  Chancellor does not have the chops to keep up with him in the open field, Bobby Wagner will not have the speed to stay with his deceiving quickness, and Sherman/Thomas cannot play physical enough with him because of injuries.  He will have to be the focus of the back seven, which will open up lanes for LaGarrette Blount to pick up chunks of yardage.     

What It All Comes Down To:

            I think New England’s defense will once again get Brady a Super Bowl Ring.  Brady has two Super Bowl MVP’s to his name thanks to the best defense/coach in the league, and a third championship thanks to Deion Branch’s career day.  When he is the focal point I do not think they are a Super Bowl Champion team.  Luckily this season he is third to Gronk and the defense, in that order.  New England has an “Us Against the World” mentality because they were caught cheating, AGAIN (which will be a whole different post), and they ride that wave with Rob Gronkowski steering the ship. 

New England 24 – Seattle 16

SUPER BOWL PROP BETS

UNDER 48.5

As I have already mentioned, New England has not given up more than 26 points in their last ten games; well the Seahawks have not given up more than 24 in their last 12 games.  Both teams have played great offenses such as Green Bay, Denver, San Diego, etc., in that time period.  I love the under here.

Will a team score 3 consecutive times?  YES

This has happened in the last three Super Bowls, five of the last six, and 14 of the last 19.  I could easily see a field goal-touchdown-field goal combo, which would only yield 13 points and not be too drastic.

Tom Brady’s First Pass: Completion

The odds are against you a little bit on this one with the vig, but look for the Patriots to get something quick and easy to start Brady off on the right foot.  The worst thing possible would be an opening interception, so Josh McDaniels will keep it safe.

Super Bowl MVP: Rob Gronkowski +1200

So a $100 bet gets you $1300 back if Gronk wins the MVP.  I consider it a 25% chance that if the Patriots win, he is the MVP.  I think they are more than a 50% chance to win the game, so by those odds you are getting $200 of value.

Rob Gronkowski Receiving Yards OVER 79.5, Receptions OVER 5.5, -135 to score a touchdown, first reception yards OVER 9.5

As you can see, I’m all-in on Gronk.

Will there be a Roughing the Passer Penalty? YES +140

Between the two Superstar-level quarterbacks, if there is a hard hit that flag will come out.  The last thing the league needs is more concussion talk, so look for a quick trigger on personal foul penalties.

Ryan Allen shortest punt UNDER 36 yards

A punt to the 12-yard line of New England from the 47-yard line going in?  Thank you.

Total score by Tiger Woods in the first round of The Masters vs. Julian Edelman Receiving yards: Tiger’s score

Dude shot an 82 yesterday, with a 44 on the front nine.

LeGarrette Blount Rushing Attempts OVER Minutes of Silva/Diaz UFC Fight

The max amount of minutes for the fight is 15, which is the over/under for Blount’s attempts.  So the max for one, is the average for the other?  Value. 

Idina Menzel’s National Anthem: UNDER 2 minutes 2 seconds

That is an obscenely long anthem, and I don’t think she will “let it go” that long.

How many times will Katy Perry be mentioned in the first half? OVER 2

Seems too easy.  Just two mentions of the half time show and I push? 

Katy Perry’s first outfit: Skirt or Dress, -150

Just Google-image search her and look at the percentage of pictures of her performing in one of the two.