NFL Week 3 Picks

GIANTS -3.5 over Redskins

TOT gets off to a strong start to the week.  Also, anyone who started trying to say that Washington had a chance to win the division should be fired.

RAMS PK over Steelers

This is the epitome of a TOT game: everyone forgets Pittsburgh losing by a touchdown in week one while the Rams beat the two-time defending NFC Champions.  St. Louis had to deal with the Seattle hangover (still winless) and that led to a surprising loss to Washington.  Best bet of the week right here.

Chargers +3 over VIKINGS

TOT game #3: This is the biggest toss-up of the week.  The bets are even coming in at almost exactly 50% each way.  I will take the field goal of value to go with TOT.

TEXANS -6.5 over Buccaneers

Tampa took advantage of a hurt Drew Brees causing three turnovers and limiting New Orleans to 219 yards passing.  On the other hand, I liked what I saw from Ryan Mallett and think that the Texans will be able to run on Tampa.  It is also a TOT game.

Eagles +3 over JETS

Philadelphia cannot be as bad as they looked last week… right?  This is another TOT game and DeMarco Murray will finally break out.  The Jets defense is getting too much love and will have a rude awakening.

Saints +3.5 (or higher) over PANTHERS

This game is off the board right now due to Drew Brees’ injury.  I think even if he plays, that Sean Payton gears it back towards the run game and New Orleans springs the upset.

Jaguars +14 over PATRIOTS

Both teams won last week, so there is no TOT potential.  I will be betting with the underdog getting two touchdowns or more in every game this season.  It’s like home-dogs: bet the same every single game to try and turn a profit.

RAVENS -2.5 over Bengals

Baltimore’s defense is solid, even with the loss of Terrell Suggs.  Andy Dalton has not had an Andy Dalton game yet, and I think it comes out this Sunday.

BROWNS -3 over Raiders

Surprisingly, both teams are coming off of wins.  I think that McCown might be the right choice because advanced metrics pointed toward Johnny Manziel getting quite lucky with bad decisions/throws.  Take away the two long bombs and his game was sub-par.  

Fun fact: the last time the Raiders lost by less than 3 points or won on the road was in 2013 against a Texans team that finished 1-15.  Actually, the last time the Raiders won a road game against a team that did not finish with the worst record in the NFL was in 2011.

TITANS +3.5 over Colts

Are we sure the Colts are good?  It is a question I have seen the first couple of weeks but now I might be buying some stock in it.  This is going one of two ways to me: Colts by 30 or Titans by 10.  I think I might be leaning toward Tennessee at home…

COWBOYS +2 over Falcons

Over the past five seasons, the first game that a starting quarterback misses the team rallies for a 23-11 record ATS.  I am going with the trend.

49ers +6.5 over CARDINALS

I’ve picked against the Cardinals two weeks in a row and I am not stopping now! This is also a TOT game… that’s all I got.

Bears +14.5 over SEAHAWKS

In one of my survivor pools, there was over 200 people to start, and just 2 after last week.  If you have Seattle still then you are safe this week.  However, more than two touchdowns and the backup quarterback’s first start are too much to pass up.

DOLPHINS -3 over Bills

I think Miami will bounce back after a tough loss to Jacksonville.  It is the Dolphins’ home opener and the Bills have not won on the road (outside of a meaningless Week 17 game last year) in almost a year.

LIONS +3.5 over Broncos

At 0-2, this game just means more to Detroit than Denver.  It is also another TOT game.

Chiefs +7 over PACKERS

Kansas City gets basically four days of extra rest due to them playing Thursday and Green Bay playing late Sunday night.  The Packers also played Seattle and the week after playing the Seahawks a team has still not covered in over a year and a half.  It is also a TOT game.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Patriots -4, Seahawks -4.5, Rams +10

Others I Like:

Patriots/Jaguars OVER 36.5, Saints/Panthers UNDER 55, Eagles +12, 49ers +16.5, Browns +7, Chargers +13

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: James Starks, RB,  Green Bay Packers

Last week, Brandon Coleman was screwed by Drew Brees’ hurt shoulder. Twice he was looking at him in the end zone but could not deliver the pass.  This week I’m giving you Starks against the Chiefs.  Lacy is questionable and even if he plays, Starks should get a fair amount of targets.

This Week: 1 – 0

Last Week: 8 – 8

Season: 15 – 16 – 1

TOT Last Week: 3 - 4

TOT Season: 3 - 4