NFL Week 1 Picks

And the NFL is officially back!! No more Patriots cheating talk (whoops)! No more off the field violence (damn)! ….

Nevertheless, I had a pretty long preview for the entire NFL yesterday, so I am going to stick to just the picks here.

Friendly reminder that I will be going with The Opposite Theory again this season, but since it’s week one, there are no games in play.

PATRIOTS -7 over Steelers

My feel for the game was right, but Ben backed into a push with a late TD.

BEARS +7 over Packers

I’m buying the half point because I refuse to give a touchdown with a home dog.

Chiefs +1 over TEXANS

The last five teams to be featured on Hard Knocks went 0-4-1 against the spread in Week 1, and it took a late comeback just to get the push.

Browns +3 over JETS

Neither quarterback is any good, but I think the Browns have a better defense, and the second best offensive line in the league.  Start Isaiah Crowell if you have him.

BILLS +3 over Colts

80% of all action in Vegas on this game is coming in on the Colts… I think we have the Sucker Bet of the Week so I will take Buffalo.

REDSKINS +3.5 over Dolphins

Nope, this might be the SBotW.  86% of the handle is coming in on Miami, and I am still not sure why this line isn’t creeping towards a touchdown.

JAGUARS +3 over Panthers

Home underdogs should be bet the same way, all the way through. This line feels just about right, so I will continue taking the home dogs.

RAMS +4 over Seahawks

I think I would lean towards St. Louis here anyway because it should be a toss-up.  Seattle will be getting used to a new offensive line and Jimmy Graham, while missing Kam Chancellor.  Then you throw in the home dog factor and I’m in on St. Louis.

New Orleans +2.5 over CARDINALS

Arizona is due for a let down from regression this season.  They were the luckiest team in the league in terms of point differential/record and close games last year, so I think they start off with losing a close game late.

Lions +3 over CHARGERS

This game is off the board as of now, but I did find the 3-point line for an off-shore site.  At this point I realized I had taken every single underdog…. And I feel really good about it.  Maybe this is a market-correction week in which Vegas sets the lines so that the more publicly favored teams will draw in more bets.

Titans +3 over BUCCANEERS

I like Mariota to pick up the NFL game quicker than Winston.

RAIDERS +3.5 over Bengals

Are the Bengals that good?  Last year, every one of their losses was by 10+ points.  Their only wins against playoff teams were against a hobbled Peyton Manning late in the year, and sweeping the Ravens early in the year.  I think they are in for a free-fall.

Ravens +4 over BRONCOS

I liked the Broncos, but once I’m this far deep with all dogs why switch it up?

Giants +7 over COWBOYS

I’m buying a half point here, as well.  Dallas will take some time to get their defense together as well as their running back situation.  Beckham will probably have a field day with Carr/Claiborne and this shootout will definitely be within a touchdown.

FALCONS +3 over Eagles

I’m all-in on Atlanta this season, and this starts it off strongly.

49ERS +2 over Vikings

I like Minnesota this year and am down on San Francisco, yet this feels like last season when the 49ers show their best stuff in their first game.  Peterson hasn’t had actual contact in over a year now, so I think he needs a week to get going.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Giants +17, Cowboys/Giants OVER 41, Falcons/Eagles OVER 44

Others I Like:

Bears/Packers OVER 38.5, Chiefs +11, Browns +13, Browns/Jets UNDER 51, Titans/Bucs UNDER 53, and Bears +17

No Fantasy sleeper to start the season, but please check out my Weekly Value Based Drafting piece.

This Week: 0 – 0 – 1

TOT : 0 – 0 – 0

Last Season: 122 – 97 - 2