NFL Week 2 Picks

Alright, first week is in the books and I finished slightly up with a winning teaser. Now, I can really put The Opposite Theory to play.  In short, I use TOT as a team that did not cover the previous week over a team that did.  It finished 37-19 last season for a hefty profit so I will be keeping track of it again this year.

Broncos +3 over CHIEFS

Twitter pick that I put a sizeable bet on. It’s still not time to bet against Peyton Manning in a prime-time game.

Texans +3 over PANTHERS

Our first TOT game of the season! I would take the Texans anyway with Luke Kuechly out for Carolina and Houston being able to run on them now.

Buccaneers +10 over SAINTS

Jameis has serious back door cover potential, and I do not like giving double digits with a bad defense.

STEELERS -5.5 over 49ers

I’m counting this as a TOT game because pushing, but still losing by 7 should count as not covering.  San Francisco is not as good as they seem because as I said last week the Vikings would not be up to snuff just yet.

VIKINGS -3 over Lions

Speaking of Minnesota, I think they will look like the Cowboys last season: everyone kind of writes them off after a week one loss to San Francisco, but then their star (AP/Romo) gets his feet under him and they go on a run.

BILLS -1 over Patriots

I might end up regretting this one, but the Patriots’ offensive line should not be able to handle the ferocious pass rush of Buffalo.

BEARS +2 over Cardinals

TOT game #3. Alshon Jeffery will probably not play, and that might kick the Bears into another gear knowing they can’t rely on him to bail Cutler out.

BROWNS +1.5 over Titans

I do not think Johnny Manziel will play well, but Mariota’s output can only go down after a perfect quarterback rating last week.  Cleveland’s defense is just good enough to handle Tennessee and a reeled back game plan for Mr. Football will help.

Chargers +3 over BENGALS

I might have under-valued the Chargers in the pre-season.  They looked pretty good last week on offense and I think Cincy is getting over-valued after a blowout win over the Raiders.

REDSKINS +3.5 over Rams

It’s a TOT game, home underdog by more than a field goal, and most importantly, last season the week after teams played Seattle (in a normal week, no Monday/Thursday or Bye’s) they did not cover once.

GIANTS -2.5 over Falcons

This is not quite a TOT since the Giants did cover the spread, but I still like them to bounce back. 

RAIDERS +4.5 over Ravens

It’s another home dog by more than a field goal, and it’s not like the Ravens looked that good against Denver.  I think Oakland slows the game down if McGloin ends up starting and keeps this game close.

JAGUARS +7 over Dolphins

I’m buying the half point to get a home underdog of a touchdown, as well as a TOT candidate.  This is a tease-both-ways game in which the Dolphins will probably not blow them out, but just keep it close enough for a win.

EAGLES -6 over Cowboys

This is another close TOT game, but since Dallas did not cover in their win it does not technically qualify.  Either way, Chip Kelly knows that if they lose this game there is a more than 50% chance that the Cowboys have effectively a three-game lead on the whole division after just two weeks.  He will throw in every trick he has to win.

Seahawks +3.5 over PACKERS

Seattle will miss Kam Chancellor, but they know that they cannot start 0-2 with a decent chance every team in their division will be 2-0.  This qualifies as a TOT game and I think Wilson makes enough plays for the win.

COLTS -7 over Jets

The Jets win last week makes this game slightly less important to them and the Colts loss made it extremely more important to them.  It’s a surprising TOT game and I think Andrew Luck bounces back strongly.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Colts +3, Patriots +11, Buccaneers +20

Others I Like:

Eagles +4, Seahawks +13.5, Browns/Titans Under 53, Texans +13, Raiders +14.5, Giants +7.5

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Brandon Coleman, WR, New Orleans Saints

I will try to give you someone that is not only available in most leagues, but whose price is right in weekly leagues.  Last week in my weekly article at SoCalledFantasyExperts.com, I gave Carson Palmer as my top play and he led the Sunday/Monday games in scoring. 

This week I’m giving you the wide out from New Orleans, Brandon Coleman.  I wrote in my article this week that Coleman had just one fewer target than Brandin Cooks last week and more than Marques Colsten.  He managed 14.1 points in PPR leagues and gets an awful Tampa secondary, yet is only owned in 37.1% of leagues. Get him now.

This Week: 1 – 0

Last Week: 7 – 8 – 1

Season: 8 – 8 – 1

TOT This Season: 0 – 0

TOT Last Season: 37 - 19