Bowl Picks

            When picking the college football bowl games in some sort of pool, I like to stick to over expanding trends.  The point is to win the pool right?  So if you want to win, you need to try to hit a home run and finish well above .500.  The best way to do that is have a theory about a conference or bowl specific.  For example, if you think that one conference was clearly the best in the country, you pick all of their teams to cover/win.  Every year at least one conference comes out with a near unblemished bowl record.  A specific situation you might roll with would be teams in their home state (covering at 67% over the past 10 years) or teams that finished the year strong as opposed to teams limping to the finish line.  The best thing to do is really look at the group of games as a whole, and see which trend sticks out to you.  Then, you just hope that it hits.

            Now I’m picking these games against the line, and only rarely would I advise to bet the game straight up differently than the spread.  The line would have to be at least more than a touchdown, but I will point out the few examples of that this year.

Louisiana Lafayette +1 over Nevada

This is one of the several bowls played in Louisiana and that is really some of my only logic.  I have not bet on a single game involving either one of these two teams this season, and I believe this is the only game of such a matchup. 

UTEP +10 over Utah St.

U Take ‘Em Points as Norm always says.  The Miners have been a big dog coverer for the past few years, and this game is played in basically their home state since it is in New Mexico.  Utah St. has had inflated lines near the end of the year due to the previous bias that they were a solid mid-major, but without Chuckie Keaton they just aren’t the same team.  I’m definitely taking UTEP against the spread, and it might be a good contrarian pick straight up, as I would see 80%+ of the pool taking the big favorite.

Colorado St. +3 over Utah

Another trend some people like is taking Power 5 conference teams over the little guys.  I am not in on that one this season, because the meddling 6-6 crowd of the Power 5 is not that strong.  I tend to like Mid-Majors that lose their coach to better opportunity such as this Rams’ team.  Their coach left for a bigger school and I think they show how that rubbed them the wrong way.

Air Force -2 over Western Michigan

There are two ways to look at service academies in bowls: the first is that with the extra weeks of practice their option offenses are easier to defend.  The other way is that they cherish the bowl experience more because they are not up at 0500 or whatever and get to truly enjoy themselves.  I lean towards the latter and I think the Falcons are just a flat out better team.

South Alabama -3 over Bowling Green

South Alabama will get a bus ride to Montgomery for this game while Bowling Green has to fly across the Mason Dixon Line.  South Alabama is quite similar to Texas St./UTSA in schools that are new but have such a rich recruiting ground that they will have the athletes to dominate the smaller conferences.  I think that begins in this game.

Memphis -1.5 over BYU

This game is being played in Florida, so it is a much shorter trip for the Tigers and their fans.  I also believe that BYU has gotten the same type of credit as Utah St. as being better than they really are without their quarterback.  I really like the Tigers in this spot and they are one of my best bets.

Northern Illinois +10 over Marshall

This line is similar to the UTEP line in that I would definitely like getting the points, and I like taking the Huskies straight up as a contrarian pick.  To win big pools you usually need at least one or two games where the overwhelmingly majority picked the opposite way but you were right.  Marshall is over-rated due to a hot start but that was against terrible teams.  The expectations have crashed them back to Earth and ten points is too much in what I see as a toss-up game.

San Diego St. +3 over Navy

I know, I said I like taking service academies in bowls, but San Diego is playing a legitimate home game while Navy is traveling across the country (and not by sea).  I think the sunshine and good weather is a detriment to the Midshipmen who are used to the cold and blistery Mid-Atlantic.

Western Kentucky -3.5 over Central Michigan

Western Kentucky can flat out score.  They showed it in the upset of Marshall and I think they ride that hot streak into the bowl season.  Central Michigan has been a covering machine, but they do not see many offenses as prolific as the Hilltoppers.  I think the style of play difference is a huge advantage to Western Kentucky.

Rice -2.5 over Fresno St.

The Owls are 22-11 against the spread over the last two years, and depending on the line you got they are 9-3 this season.  All they do is cover, including being down 17 at the half and still covering favored by 17.5.  The flight is only a couple of hours shorter from Fresno to Hawaii than Houston, so there is not much advantage there.  I think Rice is just a better team and will show it.

Louisiana Tech -6 over Illinois

Before I even share my thoughts on the Big Ten, just look at that line for a second: a team from a non-Power 5 conference is favored by almost a touchdown against one of their “bowl” teams.  This line has already received multiple max-limit bets in Vegas on the Bulldogs.  Lay the points.

North Carolina -3 over Rutgers

Pop Quiz: how many Big Ten teams are favored in the bowls?  ZERO. 0 for 10.  I can’t say there are many games where I even have hope that they will cover/win.  North Carolina can just out-talent Rutgers.

Central Florida -2 over North Carolina State

The Wolfpack have been a strong dog this season, but I am sticking with home-state advantage.  This game is in Florida so I give the edge to the Knights, who have bounced back nicely after losing Blake Bortles.

Virginia Tech +3 over Cincinnati

This may be a little bit of spite in that I hate Tommy Tuberville, but I think the Bearcats have a little bit of a fools’ gold resume.  They beat up on the teams in the AAC, which most people in Dallas think I’m talking about where the Mavs play.  Virginia Tech does have a win over a Playoff Team (sarcasm).

Arizona St. -7.5 over Duke

Duke had been really good to me over the first half of the season.  Then they broke down and just could not score the ball anymore.  There is a slight home advantage to the Sun Devils since it is in El Paso, and I think their offense will be too much for Duke to hang with.

Miami -4 over South Carolina

There is no home field advantage as the two are about equidistant from Shreveport.  There have been a few max limit bets on Miami that has pushed the line up over a field goal.  When I really look at it though: who has South Carolina beaten this season?  At home against Georgia who was without Todd Gurley?  Besides that, they beat a very mediocre Florida team and lost to Tennessee and Kentucky.  I’ll take The U.

Boston College -2.5 over Penn St.

Boston College can run the ball really well, probably on par with Michigan St. and Ohio St. who both beat Penn St. handily.  I also would not want any part of a Big Ten team getting less than a field goal.

USC -6.5 over Nebraska

Insert Pac-12 team playing in home state that is absolutely on fire at the end of the year-over- Big Ten team traveling halfway across the country with a fired head coach limping toward the finish line.  This might possibly be my 38 Point confidence pick.

Texas A&M +3 over West Virginia

I think this has the potential to be a very good matchup.  Neither team has much interest in playing defense, so the over is the strong play here.  I think it comes down to the last team with the ball for the win, so I will take the field goal of value.

Oklahoma PK over Clemson

The line is s till not on the board for this game with both quarterbacks in doubt.  I believe in the Oklahoma’s backup more than Clemson’s, so I will stick with them.

Arkansas -6 over Texas

This is the one game where I am going against the home state team.  I don’t think that the majority of Texas fans will care much about this mid-level bowl, but Arkansas fans will get up to play Texas.  Arkansas will be able to run on the Horns, because Arkansas can run on anyone.  They will limit the possessions of the Texas offense, which is not good with their bad quarterback play.

LSU -7 over Notre Dame

We have seen this before: an Irish team that can beat anyone in the Big Ten, but cannot hang with the athletes of the SEC.  LSU has not been as good as recent years, but they are ridiculously young.  I think this extra month of practice will help them mature and they will show how dangerous they will be next season.

Louisville +7 over Georgia

Charlie Strong did not leave the cupboard dry at Louisville.  That team has some real NFL talent and they can match up with the Bulldogs.  I like the value of the touchdown, as I think this will be another tight game coming down to the wire.

Stanford -14 over Maryland

Insert Pac-12 team playing in home state that is coming on strong at the end of the year-over- Big Ten team traveling all the way across the country with a lame duck coach limping toward the finish line.  I had to only slight change that from the USC/Nebraska pick.

TCU -3 over Mississippi

I think TCU will be out to prove a point.  Both they and Baylor will go one of two ways: they show up with a purpose and have the best game of their season, or they feel sorry for themselves and get blown out.  I don’t think there is an in between.  As good as the Land Sharks for Ole Miss have been, they have not seen an offense as explosive as the Frogs.

Arizona -3 over Boise St.

This is being played in Arizona, and they have a very explosive offense that Boise St. has not had to face the level of this season.  Boise St. is definitely the best of the mid-majors, but they are not on the level of the Wildcats.  The line has been pushed down because of the blowout to Oregon, but everyone saw that coming with vengeance. 

Mississippi St. -6.5 over Georgia Tech

The Bulldogs will have better athletes on defense than the Yellow Jackets and will have a month to prepare for their 1950’s offense.  Dak Prescott will want to put on a show for the NFL scouts (max third rounder, but he better strike while the iron is as hot as it will ever be) and will abuse Tech’s defense.

Wisconsin +7 over Auburn

This is another line pushed by a misleading conference championship game.  It is a widely believed theory that a team will play its best game the first time out after losing its best player.  They rally and every person realizes that they need to play at their absolute best to cover for their fallen comrade.  I think Melvin Gordon goes wild as they try to get him 300 yards and get the season rushing record.

Baylor -3 over Michigan St.

Baylor is the closest offense to Oregon’s, and we saw what happened in the second half when the Spartans could not keep up with them.  Throw in the fact that this game is at The Death Star, and Baylor will want to prove that they belonged in the Playoff, and I think the Bears get a big win.  Oh, and Michigan State plays in the Big Ten.

Missouri -5 over Minnesota

Minnesota got trounced by the speed of TCU and I think Missouri brings the same athletic advantage.

Oregon -9.5 over Florida St.

It is very dangerous to lay that many points against a quarterback who has never lost a game on a 27-game winning streak.  It may be ugly, but Winston always pulls his team out.  However, I think Mariota is better and Oregon has been 100% the best team all season.  They lost on a weird Thursday night game against a top-7 team without three of their offensive linemen.  They won’t lose again.

Alabama -9.5 over Ohio St.

Never has a team been so happy to play against another.  Alabama will destroy Cardale Jones and the rest of the over-rated Buckeyes.  I take it back, this is Confidence level 39.

Houston +3 over Pittsburgh

The Cougars can score some points and they get home state advantage in this one.  Pittsburgh has been really good at running the ball, but I think Houston will sling it all over the place and keep it close for a late victory.

Tennessee -3.5 over Iowa

The Hawkeyes have been the most disappointing team of the season.  They had a schedule set up for 10+ wins but it all went south after losing to Iowa St., the last place team in the Big XII.  I don’t think they will get up for this game very much, while Tennessee will want to build on something for next year.

UCLA +1.5 over Kansas St.

I actually flipped this pick as I was writing it.  Kansas St. had a superior Vegas power ranking to this spread, the Big XII is seen as a more powerful conference by every computer metric, and Bill Snyder is seen as a superior coach.  Yet, the line stayed at 1.5.  Sucker. Bet.  I also think Hundley puts on a show as he tries to force his way into the first round.

Washington -5.5 over Oklahoma St.

This is another line that has been pushed around because of recent bias.  Oklahoma St. pulled out the upset over Oklahoma, but that was a rivalry game against a backup quarterback.  We have all seen how good Chris Petersen is in bowl games as well, and I think he knows how this win can help grow his program.

East Carolina +7 over Florida

East Carolina is just behind Boise St. as a top Mid-level team.  Carden can sling the ball around and Florida will not have much energy in the Birmingham Bowl, in between head coaches.  They will more than likely be trying to showcase individual talent for NFL scouts.  East Carolina and coach Ruffin McNiel will want to win the damn game.  I think they will.

Toledo -3 over Arkansas St.

Sorry, I have not bet on either one of these teams either.  Let’s go with the favorite.

Theorized National Championship Game:

Oregon -1 over Alabama

I think the Ducks would gain the favorite role to start, but the public would push the spread back to the Tide being favored.  Either way, I said it in the preseason, and I’ll reiterate it now.  Marcus Mariota is the best player and Heisman trophy winner, and the Oregon Ducks are the best team in the nation.