NFL Week 14 Picks

Last week was the best week yet for both my picks and The Opposite Theory with them going 12-4 and 6-1 respectively.  TOT has really helped clear up a few games for me that I would have otherwise gone the opposite way.  The hardest thing about using theories in gambling is sticking to them no matter what so that you get the right side of the trend.  What that means is rolling with the Jets on Monday Night or even getting through the lows like picking the Raiders last week.

As we enter the stretch run to the playoffs as well as the fantasy playoff season, there are other factors in picking games/players.  I tend to stay away from rookies who have been hot (Kelvin Benjamin) and jump on the bandwagon for rookies who had started slowly (Beckham was a little early, but Bishop Sankey and Tre Mason are great candidates).  Team-wise, I like teams that have a sudden influx of health that the lack of had previously hurt them (San Diego, Seattle).  With that said, let’s dive into the week’s picks.

Cowboys -3.5 over BEARS

This wasn’t a TOT game, but it might have spawned something else in that you just knew that Dallas was going to bounce back.  Maybe something along the lines of a big loss by a team with a strong running game will bounce back stronger than normally?  Seattle seems like a likely candidate after they lost to San Diego, they followed it up with a huge win over Denver; definitely something to look in to.

DOLPHINS -2.5 over Ravens

Both teams are coming off crushing losses in games they really think they should have won.  In the muddled mix of the AFC Wild Card Race, this game will go a long way in tie-breakers as well who gets the early leg-up.  I think that the Ravens were exposed a bit last week by San Diego, and Ryan Tannehill had been on a roll until last week. 

BENGALS -3 over Steelers

Just like the Ravens, I think the Steelers defensive flaws were put on display against the Saints last week.  Every week that Gio Bernard and A.J. Green get a little healthier, the Bengals continue to lurk as a sneaky contender.  I also will need a huge game from Antonio Brown in my big-money fantasy league playoffs, so I’m sure that he will have his worst game of the year.

BROWNS +4 over Colts

In our first TOT game of the week, we have the tumultuous situation that is the Cleveland quarterback situation.  Manziel got his first legitimate action last week and while he did rush for a touchdown, he was less than spectacular as well as playing against the second string defensive line.  I think Hoyer bounces back and I love getting more than a field goal with a home team.

JAGUARS +7 over Texans

I was all set to make this a TOT pick, then I remembered that Jacksonville beat the Giants last week.  You know, because Eli Manning is so great that he lost to Blake Bortles in an actual football game.  Either way, I thought something was askew about the Texans being favored a touchdown last week and it paid off.  However, I can’t lay a touchdown on the road with them just yet.

TITANS +1 over Giants

Both of these teams are coming off bad losses to the previous game’s teams, and I cannot get a good read on this game.  I’ll take the home-dog and the fact that Eli Manning could not beat the lowly Jaguars, why can he beat the Titans on the road?

Panthers +10 over SAINTS

In the second TOT game of the week, we also have the reverse jinx action I will be playing because I need a big game from Drew Brees.  I also think that New Orleans will give up plenty of late points as they did last week and open the backdoor for a cover by Carolina.

Buccaneers +10 over LIONS

I don’t know how many weeks I can be wrong about Tampa Bay, but I am rolling with them this week.  I honestly don’t know why, I just think that the Lions won’t have blowout wins in consecutive weeks.

REDSKINS +4 over Rams

In the RG3-Trade-Bowl, we have serious TOT action going.  The Rams decimated Oakland last week while Washington was getting blown out by Indianapolis.  Home dogs are coming on strong with a 4-0 week last week, 8-1 over the past two weeks, so maybe that is another late-season trend to keep an eye on.

Jets +6 over VIKINGS

Both of these teams had solid wins last week, with Chris Johnson turning into CJ2K again.  The Vikings have a really good defense with Mike Zimmer calling the shots, but I don’t believe in their offense enough to cover nearly a touchdown.

Bills +10 over BRONCOS

Here we have another game in which both teams had comfortable wins last week, so there is no TOT potential.  The Bills have a dominating defensive line that I think will get pressure similar to how Seattle did in the Super Bowl last year against Peyton.  Their secondary is not quite as strong so they won’t be able to blow them out or anything, but I think it will allow them to keep it close.

CARDINALS +1.5 over Chiefs

Arizona’s home field is the most under-rated advantage in the NFL right now.  Getting points with them in the Nest seems almost too easy.  This could be the sucker bet of the week, but I’m buying it. 

RAIDERS +8 over 49ers

It seems like almost every game this week pits teams coming off of the same result last week.  Both of the bay area teams got dominated last week, and as much as the Raiders home field is not much of an advantage as probably half the stadium will be in red, I still don’t trust Colin Kaepernick.  I’ll take the points and try not to think about how the Raiders got beat by 50 last week.

EAGLES -1 over Seahawks

Once again, both teams coming off almost the same exact result, on the same Thursday.  The Eagles had a controlling win over Dallas while Seattle pounded San Francisco into the ground Thanksgiving night.  I still believe in the Sanchize as the right quarterback for Chip Kelly’s offense, and I think McCoy runs wild.

Patriots -3 over CHARGERS

Most teams could not handle the late afternoon game on the road followed by the late prime time game across the country, but I think Brady and Belichick will get it done.  This is also a TOT game after the Patriots’ loss at Green Bay, and I learned a while ago to not bet against Belichick after a loss.

PACKERS -12 over Falcons

Aaron Rodgers has not thrown an interception at Lambeau Field in over two calendar years.  I also have Julio Jones and Matt Ryan in another fantasy league playoff matchup, so I’m sure they will lay duds.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Packers -2, Patriots +7, Packers/Falcons OVER 45

Others I Like:

Panthers +20, Buccaneers +20, Bills +20, Broncos PK, Jets/Vikings UNDER 51, Chiefs/Cardinals UNDER 51

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay

Last week, Jarvis Landry would have gotten you 14.8 points to continue my trend of hitting starter worthy performances from guys widely available.  Daniel Herron also got you 17.6 if you were able to snag him.  This week I’m going with Davante Adams.  The rookie out of Fresno State had a massive game last week, as defenses are starting to put an umbrella over the deep routes of Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb.  Atlanta’s pass defense is awful, so expect Adams to get a ton of shallow targets that he could turn into sizable gains.

This Week:  1-0

Last Week: 12-4

Overall: 93-67-1

TOT: 22-10