NFL Week 9 Picks

            So I’m back on track after my second straight 9-6 week, and The Opposite Theory (TOT) was a strong 2-0.  I also had pretty good reads on other games, thinking that Sammy Watkins could approach 200 yards (157) and Arian Foster would have a monster day (173 total yards, 3 touchdowns).  After being back in the country for a couple a weeks and really watching most of the games I feel like my handicapping is on a high level; well besides these damn Thursday night games.

PANTHERS +3 over Saints

I mean it was a home dog, in a short week, and near opposite theory potential in that Carolina lost, although they did cover.  All of the signs pointed to Carolina, but I under estimated how bad Cam Newton has been.  I’m off of the Panthers now for the time being.

Buccaneers +7 over BROWNS

I thought Tampa would come out and put on a good showing and should have won that game against Minnesota last week.  I also did not think Cleveland should be giving a touchdown to anyone yet.  I was wrong on both, but I am stubborn and this is the first TOT game of the week after Tampa lost an overtime game and Cleveland blew out the Raiders.

TEXANS +2 over Eagles

I think Foster will have another monster day and is a good buy in weekly fantasy leagues.  Philadelphia gives up almost 120 yards on the ground a game.  Philadelphia only has one solid win since Week 1, and that was the Eli-suck-fest a couple of weeks ago.  Every other game has come down to the wire, and I think the home-dog Texans are more than up to the fight.

Jets +10 over CHIEFS

A shining example for TOT.  The Jets were horrible last week with 83 (estimated) turnovers while the Chiefs just destroyed the Rams.  I think a full week with Vick as the starter will rejuvenate the Jets and Percy Harvin will be a factor.  Eric Decker will stop letting his wife defend him on Twitter and get a touchdown as well.

Jaguars +10.5 over BENGALS

A.J. Green is still uncertain, Gio Bernard has been ruled out, and we have TOT in play.  Cincy did not look great, but pulled out a big win, and the Jags got blown out.  I don’t think the Bengals have the firepower without both of their skill guys to win by double digits.

Chargers +1.5 over DOLPHINS

I had already typed in the Dolphins as my pick until I realized this is a sneaky TOT game.  It is a noon start with a west coast team traveling to the east, so I do not like that, but I have to stick to my guns.  San Diego got beat pretty handily by Denver last week while Miami blew out Jacksonville.  I have to stay true to the theory to really get the value.

VIKINGS -1 over Redskins

Both teams won last week so there is no TOT, but I think Jay Gruden is making a huge mistake.  Colt McCoy was very effective and efficient against Dallas.  RGIII has not played in more than a month, and did not look as good as McCoy when he was in.  Andy Dalton who makes quick, smart decisions and takes care of the football has best run Gruden’s offense.  This is exactly the opposite of how Griffin plays.  He will remain completely over-rated until he is benched for good.

49ERS -9.5 over Rams

Since the 49ers were on a bye, we can’t use TOT here.  As high as I was on St. Louis last week, I’m just as low this week.  I also think Harbaugh is a good coach with extra time to prepare and will have San Fran ready to take care of business.

PATRIOTS +3 over Broncos

Bill Simmons had a completely self-serving column Friday about how Brady would have just as many yards/touchdowns if he got to play with as good of a supporting cast as Manning.  He is just a homerific idiot.  The reason Manning’s cast seems so good is that they get to play with Peyton Freaking Manning.  Marvin Harrison was an average receiver before Manning. Reggie Wayne has been slightly above average after Manning (and he has Andrew Luck).  Brandon Stokley left Manning and never had a decent season after.  Dallas Clark was one of the best TE’s in football on the Colts, then left and no one heard from him again.  Eric Decker was a spare before Manning, a touchdown machine with him, and a spare again in New York.  Emmanuel Sanders was an average #2 receiver last year, and is now the best #2 in the league… except he’s the third receiving option.  Anyone that thinks Brady is as good a quarterback as Manning is just an idiot that does not know anything about football.  If you give Manning the defense and coaching staff that Brady has had every year, they would have had at least 5 Super Bowls.  Having said that, you don’t bet against Belichick as a home-dog. 

SEAHAWKS -14 over Raiders

This line is just so damn high, but I think Seattle makes a statement that they are still the team with the title belt.  The 12^th man will be in full force and the Raiders will not have a chance.

Ravens -2 over STEELERS

Pittsburgh opened as a 3 point favorite, and the line has already moved this much.  Someone knows something and I will side with that someone.  You can also throw in a surplus of TOT after Pittsburgh’s explosive win over the Colts last week and Baltimore’s crushing defeat against Cincy.

GIANTS +3 over Colts

New York had last week off so there is no TOT in play.  This is one of the 80% games where over four fifths of the money is coming in on Indianapolis.  The public does not win, that is why they build such big towers in Vegas.  That is the only reason I have because I think the Giants suck, but I can’t turn away from that.

Cardinals +3 over COWBOYS

This is still a tentative line on the game because of the uncertain status of Tony Romo, but I can tell you I am taking Arizona at almost any number.  Personally, I would sit Romo for the next two games; hope Weeden gets you a split (and they should be able to beat Jacksonville in London with Weeden next week), then Romo ends up with almost a month in between games to rest.  There would be TOT potential, if not for the Romo injury.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Seahawks -4, 49ers +0.5, Jets/Chiefs UNDER 54

Others I Like:

Jets +20, Patriots +13, Seahawks/Raiders UNDER 54, Jaguars +20, Cowboys/Cardinals UNDER 56, Buccaneers +17

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Brian Hoyer, QB, Cleveland

Tampa Bay is giving up more points to opposing quarterbacks than anyone in the league (in the majority of fantasy formats).  Hoyer is available in the majority of leagues and should have a solid game against Tampa.  With several starting fantasy quarterbacks on a bye this week, Hoyer is the man to turn to.  Another deep sleeper is Tight End John Carlson for Arizona.  Justin Durant is out for Dallas, and he has been solid at covering TE’s all year.

This Week: 0-1       

Last Week: 9-6

Overall: 52-39-1