NFL Week 8 Picks and the new Opposite Theory

If you have read anything I have written before about picking NFL games (as well as fantasy players, this theory shows there as well) then you know I follow trends and theories.  Whether it is home-underdogs, double-digit underdogs, or any other cracked up trend I see, I try to ride it.  Most of the normal theories have not been trending in any significant way this season except a new concept I am calling the Opposite Theory.  If one team plays about as well as it can the week before and is now favored over a team that looked about as bad as it could the week before, take the points.  Tampa Bay after the 56-14 loss to Atlanta won outright over Pittsburgh while the Falcons got blown out.  Seattle destroyed Green Bay Week 1, but came back and lost outright in Week 2 while the Packers won by a touchdown.  There are numerous examples and I am going to start to chart them and notate which games really fall under the theory.

Chargers +8.5 over BRONCOS

I had a good feel on the game knowing that the Chargers would have to come slinging back, and if Rivers doesn’t throw that dumb interception late, deep in Broncos’ territory then San Diego would have covered.  And of COURSE I’m playing against Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Gates in my big money fantasy league, as they score 5 touchdowns between the two of them last night with over 60 fantasy points.

FALCONS +4 over Lions

This is a perfect case study for the opposite theory.  The Falcons looked terrible last week while the Lions came back and had a huge win over the Saints.  If bringing a team or two to Europe gives us an 8:30 a.m. start every Sunday, then I am completely cosigning that idea.  As far as this game goes, I am giving Atlanta one last chance.  Maybe since they are technically the “home” team they will play like they are in the Georgia Dome.  If the offensive line can just play below average instead of horrendous then they win this game.

BUCCANEERS -2.5 over Vikings

As bad as Tampa has looked, including going down 56-0 earlier this season, they are just two wins out of first place in the highly disappointing NFC South.  After this home date with Minnesota, the Bucs have free-falling Cleveland, home against the terrible-on-the-road Falcons, and Colt McCoy-led Redskins.  They very well could go 3-1 or even 4-0 over that stretch and be in serious contention.  I think Lovie Smith knows that, and knows that they must win this game to kick their season back in gear.

PATRIOTS -6 over Bears

Any other coach-QB combo might look past the divided and splintering Chicago team towards next week’s annual Brady/Manning showdown.  I do not think Belichick will let that happen though, especially with 3 extra days of preparation.  Also, Chicago’s strength is obviously their passing games with their three towers of target (Bennett, Marshall and Jeffery) and Forte leading all running backs in catches.  The Patriots have the best pass defense in the league right now.

Rams +7.5 over CHIEFS

Both teams had strong performances last week, so you can’t use the opposite theory here.  The Rams just have a fight about them now.  Look at their last four games against the defending Super Bowl Champs, the back to back to back NFC Championship Game participant 49ers, and the Eagles/Cowboys combo that is 11-2 this season.  They were in every single one of those games, and outside of a late pick six combined with the worst defense with 7 seconds left in a half they would have even beat San Francisco.  I just think St. Louis will not get beat by more than touchdown.

PANTHERS +5 over Seahawks

Both teams looked terrible last week; well I guess Seattle was good in two phases, but its special teams were atrocious.  Do you realize that since the opening night win over Green Bay Seattle has only one win by a touchdown or more?  And that was against the lowly Redskins?  So why should they be giving close to a touchdown on the road to a decent Carolina team? 

Bills +3.5 over JETS

The injuries to Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller might have been a blessing in disguise.  I think the team can focus now on Sammy Watkins and his big-play ability, which will make them more dangerous.  The Jets’ secondary is decimated and Watkins could go for 200.  Bryce Brown has serious fantasy breakout potential, so if you have an open spot on your bench and he is still there, pick him up.

JAGUARS +7 over Dolphins

Both teams played arguably their best games of the season last week, so there is no Opposite Theory potential here.  The Jags are surprisingly progressing rather nicely after Blake Bortles’ first couple of starts.  They have covered in their last three games, and very easily could have won all three.  Gus Bradley has Jacksonville utilizing Shoelace Robinson’s quickness to control the ball a little more and not put too much on Bortles’ shoulders.  I’ll take the touchdown with the home dog.

Texans -2 over TITANS

Another game between two teams that looked terrible last week, I am going with the Texans at this number.  The game is down in most sportsbooks with the announcement of Zach Mettenberger starting, but this spread was the last one I have seen.  If it creeps upwards toward a touchdown, I might flip, but as is I think Arian Foster runs all over Tennessee.  Do you realize that outside of the week Foster got banged up, he has over a hundred yards in every other game, with 700 total yards and 6 touchdowns?  He is quietly having a monster year and I think it continues.

Ravens +1 over BENGALS

I think A.J. Green is out again, and the Bengals offense will still be without a punch.  Baltimore has the top defense against fantasy running backs, which should slow down Gio Bernard for a second straight week. 

CARDINALS -2.5 over Eagles

Even though Philly is coming off of a bye week, there is just something about the Cardinals.  They keep covering and winning every week by a dominant defense and a new Carson Palmer who only has one interception all season.  Only he and Peyton Manning have a touchdown in every start this season.  Andre Ellington has turned into a top-5 fantasy running back, and they can score on a weak Eagles’ defense.

Colts -3 over STEELERS

Both teams are coming off of dominant wins, but I think Indy is just a flat-out better team.  Andrew Luck has been the all-around best quarterback in the league so far, in my opinion, and Ahmad Bradshaw has turned himself into a viable fantasy option again.  Reggie Wayne is out, but at this point I think they are better off utilizing T.Y. Hilton and the younger options in the passing game.

BROWNS -6.5 over Raiders

The Browns looked terrible last week in losing to Jacksonville while the Raiders got beat handily by Arizona.  This is not quite the Opposite Theory, but I think it is a definite bounce back game for Cleveland and Brian Hoyer.  Hoyer has stepped up to all of the pre-season Johnny Football talk with a strong start, and now that it has resurfaced I think he has a big game.

SAINTS -2.5 over Packers

New Orleans at home is a 100% different team than the Saints on the road.  More importantly, we have probably the best Opposite Theory game of the week.  The Saints choked away a game to the Lions last week while the Packers dominated Carolina.  I think the combo of the opposite theory, with New Orleans (Brees at home has thrown for 332 yards a game in two wins this season) at home makes this the lock of the week.  Brees with the Saints is undefeated in prime time, home, regular season games.

Redskins +10 over COWBOYS

This line has reached double digits at some places now and I just cannot lay that many points with a team on a 6-game winning streak.  It is just too hard to win 7 straight games in the NFL.  Colt McCoy will do his best to not make mistakes in a very Andy Dalton-esque performance in Jay Gruden’s offense, and Alfred Morris will get back on track against the Cowboys defense that gives up almost 120 yards a game on the ground.  Washington will try to keep the Cowboys off the field as much as possible and keep this game as close as the Giants did last week at least.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Saints +7.5, Falcons +14, Cowboys/Redskins UNDER 59.5

Others I Like:

Colts +7, Jaguars +17, Bills +13.5, Ravens +11, Ravens/Bengals UNDER 56, Patriots/Bears OVER 40

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Travaris Cadet, RB, New Orleans

If you are in a PPR league and need a RB/Flex, Cadet is a solid pickup available in almost every single league (0.2% ownership in ESPN leagues).  Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson are out for Sunday, so Cadet will be getting all of the third-down work, and will share goal line touches with Mark Ingram.

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 9-6

Season: 43-33-1