NFL Week 7 Picks

So I missed the last two weeks because I was a little busy getting married.  Everything went perfectly and the honeymoon was amazing.  Now that I am back, it is time to see what has happened in the wild two weeks since I last graced the internet with my thoughts.

Jets +10 over PATRIOTS (Tweeted)

So the road team has now covered in three of the past four Thursday Night games so it has killed the short week trend.  The other part to factor in, is the Patriots had a road game last Sunday while the Jets played at home.  It somewhat equaled out the travel aspect and you know Rob Ryan always has his team ready for New England.

Bengals +3.5 over COLTS

Two weeks ago, the Bengals were seen as possibly the best team in the league coming off their bye week and the Colts were seen as struggling after opening 0-2.  Now, the Indy is on a 4-game winning streak and Cincy has not won a game in almost a full month.  Yet, I am going with the Bengals here.  Why?  Because no team in the NFL is ever as good or bad as it looked the week before.  The Colts are on a tear and the Bengals seem to be falling off a cliff, yet the line is still only 3.5. 

Titans +6 over REDSKINS

Washington has not come within ten points of anyone in weeks and has not looked especially good doing it either.  The Titans are not exactly world-beaters either after squeaking by Jacksonville for their second win of the season.  I just don’t think either one of these teams should be favored more than a field goal against anyone besides Jacksonville or Oakland so I will take the value.

Dolphins +3 over BEARS

After that last second loss last week, I think Miami is coming out guns a blazing.  This line seems entirely too low as well.  Why would Chicago, with wins at San Francisco and at Atlanta be only a field goal favorite over the Dolphins IN Chicago?  I will stick with the adage that “if a line seems too low/high, there is a reason for it. Bet the opposite way”.

JAGUARS +7 over Browns

Jacksonville is going to win at least two games this season, and I feel like this could be one of them.  Cleveland is a better team after winning back-to-back games and its only two losses were by a combined 5 points to two teams with .500 or better records.  However, giving a touchdown, on the road is just not something I want to be a part of yet.  I mean I hesitate with Denver giving a touchdown on the road, let alone Brian Hoyer.

RAMS +7 over Seahawks

Once again, I hesitate to give a touchdown, on the road.  It is just too much to ask for a team to not only win on the road, but absolutely dominate.  Will Seattle probably be out for blood after last week and go up big in the first half?  Most likely.  Will that little twerp Austin Davis get all cocky and lead a few backdoor-covering touchdowns in the fourth quarter?  Off COURSE he will. 

PACKERS -6.5 over Panthers

So the Panthers went into Cincinnati and tied them, which should probably be considered a win when you think about playing a division champion on the road.  Green Bay came within inches/seconds of losing to Miami.  So one team looked good last week and one team looked bad…. Of course you have to go the opposite way.

Falcons +7 over RAVENS

Atlanta is 0-3 on the road, with each loss coming by double-digits.  The Ravens are 2-1 at home with both wins by 20+ points.  Atlanta is getting all sorts of crap about playing terribly on the road.  All of the numbers are pointing towards the Ravens winning big.  So I will take Atlanta and the touchdown of value.

Vikings +6.5 over BILLS

For some reason, these lines this week are just huge.  There are nine games that are 6 points of spread or more.  The thing is, just not that many NFL games are decided by a touchdown or more.  The level of talent is just too close.  One perfect example is this game.  Both teams are on their second quarterback of the season.  Both teams have staunch, under-rated defenses.  Both teams rely on a time-share of running backs to pound the ball.  Both teams have a young, big-play type receiving threat.  Why should this game be decided by anything more than a field goal?

LIONS -2.5 over Saints

Something no one is talking about: Detroit has the best defense in the league.  Number one against the pass and number two against the run, the Lions have finally cashed in on building a dominant defensive line.  The Saints are quite an anomaly themselves, as they are a missed field goal and a quarterback injury from being 0-5. while also being a long field goal make and a short miss from being 4-1.  On the road, against the top defense in the league, and I need Drew Brees to have a big game, I just don’t see this happening.

Chiefs +4 over CHARGERS

Kansas City now has two toss-up road losses to good teams (Broncos and 49ers) sandwiched around two blow-out wins since the weird season opening loss to Tennessee.  They are also coming off of a bye, where Andy Reid covers about 80% of the time.  It is also really hard to win 6 games in a row.  I think KC needs this game more than San Diego and it will show.

RAIDERS +4 over Cardinals

Basically, this is going to be very similar to the Jacksonville pick.  Weird stat oddity: Oakland is 3-0 against the number when the spread is 4 or more and 0-2 when less than 4.  Arizona is 4-1 despite giving up the most passing yards in the league and rushing for the 3^rd least amount of yards.  I think the statistics catch up with them this week and Derek Carr shows that he might actually have something.

49ers +7 over BRONCOS

If not for a late pick-six last week, Denver would only have won one game by more than a touchdown.  They are not blowing people out and while it is a short week, I think Harbaugh will have his team up for the prime-time game.  He will not want to give up the record to Peyton, so I think the game is a definite Under bet, making it more likely to cover the touchdown spread.

STEELERS -3 over Texans

I think Houston is misleading lines-makers and bettors alike with their results.  The lose a close game to Indy, but it was the Colts on a very short week.  They lose a close game to Dallas, but the Cowboys really dominated them until a late turnover kept the Texans in it.  They beat the Bills in E.J. Manuel’s bottom out game.  They beat Oakland and Washington, who are two of the worst teams in the league.  The Steelers have a weird, fluky loss to Tampa, and every other result is respectable.  After the way they beat Cleveland the first time, getting blown out the second time does not worry me.  Then they lost a Thursday night game on the road.  I think Pittsburgh blows out Houston.

Giants +7 over COWBOYS

I cannot believe the line has gotten this high.  There is too much made about division opponents “knowing” each other, but the Manning/Romo games are something different.  Since 2006, there are only 6 quarterbacks who have started almost every game.  All of them have Super Bowls except Tony Romo and Phillip Rivers.  Rivers has always gotten a pass for the torn-ACL led victory in Indianapolis over Peyton Manning.  However, Eli is the worst of that group of six, and he knows it.  Even though the media loves to compare Eli to Romo and how the two Super Bowls making Eli better, Eli knows inside that Romo is a better football player than him.  That is why he saves his best games when New York plays in Dallas.  They are really his Super Bowl to prove his worth.  He will never be Peyton and he knows that he can’t change that.  He does know that he can try to prove he is better than Romo (even though he’s not) so he will continue to do so.  It is also REALLY hard to win six games in a row.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Steelers +7, Lions +7.5, Saints/Lions UNDER 58

Others I Like:

Giants +17, 49ers +17, Packers +3.5, Vikings +16.5, Colts/Bengals OVER 40, Packers/Panthers OVER 39.5

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina

Stewart has been dropped in the majority of leagues, being owned in less than 25% of ESPN leagues.  He is back this week, and the Packers have one of the worst rush defenses in football.  The future schedule is strong too, after a tough test against Seattle, the Panthers get the Saints, Eagles, and Falcons, all in the bottom 8 of the league in defense.

This Week: 1-0

Season: 35-26-1