NFL Week 4 Picks

Not a good showing last week, as I figured the lines would catch up to my theories.  Lost to a couple of excruciating endings, mostly that Browns collapse at the end to make it a push.  I have to go catch a plane in a bit, so this one is going to have to be quick.

REDSKINS -3 over Giants

Stupid theories.

BEARS +1.5 over Packers

The Packers have burned me twice already this year, and maybe the rest of that team just is not good enough for A-Rodg to drag them to the playoffs again.  The Bears on the other hand, have looked pretty damn good the past two weeks on prime time.

TEXANS -2.5 over Bills

Both of these teams had let downs at home last week, and I just think Houston is a better team here.  So I will take the field goal spread.

Titans +8 over COLTS

Indianapolis usually hasn’t been blowing teams out since Andrew Luck got there, so the odds of them having back-to-back blowouts are slim.  The Titans have been blown out two weeks in a row after demolishing a decent Kansas City team in Week 1.  I just feel like Tennessee can cover this big number.

Panthers +3.5 over RAVENS

I think Carolina rebounds from the egg they laid last week, and I think the Ravens are prone to disappointing betters whether it is for or against them.

JETS +3 over Lions

The Jets’ defense is strong and can keep them in most games.  In fact, these are surprisingly the top two defenses in the league in yards allowed.  In what should be a low-scoring affair, I will take the value.

Buccaneers +8 over STEELERS

As bad as Tampa looked last week and as good as Pittsburgh looked last week, I have to go with the opposite theory.  The Bucs still have an NFL quality roster, and those guys were embarrassed last week.  Lovie Smith will have them ready to play and cover a touchdown.

RAIDERS +3.5 over Dolphins

The Raiders found a solid formula for staying in striking distance against New England on the road last week, and I think they employ the same tactic here.  They also get a Miami team that has a mess at quarterback right now.

Jaguars +13 over CHARGERS

At some point the Jags will cover. I will be there for it through hell or high water.

49ERS -4 over Eagles

This line reached all the way to 6.5 earlier this week before the public jumped all over the Eagles at that number.  At 3-0, Philly might have a little letdown knowing that this is not a needed win for their end goal.  Throw in the fact that they have dissension in the locker room and I like the ‘Niners here.

VIKINGS +3.5 over Falcons

I believe in Teddy Bridgewater.  I believe that Atlanta’s defense is bad.  I believe in home dogs.  I believe in the Vikings this week.

COWBOYS +3 over Saints

New Orleans just is not that good away from home.  The public is all over the Saints still, with 76% of the action coming on New Orleans.  Is Dallas actually a good team?  I mean if you take out defensive touchdowns given up, (a random occurrence with no sustained likelihood for any team) they are 3-0 with a +39 point differential.  This game will show us just how good the Cowboys are.

Patriots -3 over CHIEFS

I’m off on some of the home dogs this week, and that’s partly because I still believe the Patriots will break out at some point.  What better place than Monday Night Football for Tom Brady to announce that he is nowhere near done yet? 

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Saints +7, Saints/Cowboys UNDER 64.5, Colts +2

Others I Like:

Jaguars +23, Eagles/49ers OVER 40, Panthers +13.5, Patriots +3, Raiders +13.5, Jets +13

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Malcom Floyd, WR, San Diego

The Chargers will put up some points on Jacksonville, and Gus Bradley will be out to stop Keenan Allen.  That will leave Floyd open for some big plays down the field.

 

This Week: 0-1

Last Week: 6-9-1

Overall: 28-20-1