AFC
WEST
Denver Broncos, 14-2
San Diego Chargers, 9-7
Kansas City Chiefs, 7-9
Oakland Raiders, 3-13
The
Broncos had arguably the best offseason in the league after their demolition in
the Super Bowl. They let Eric Decker
walk, but added Emmanuel Sanders to replace him. I’m not going to say that one is a better
player than the other, but moreover that they bring different aspects to the
offense. Decker had turned into a
monster in the red zone for Peyton Manning and I think he will miss that. Adding DeMarcus Ware opposite of Von Miller
(if he can return to form) creates quite a pass rush, and Aqib Talib is on the
short list of the best corners in the game.
The schedule is quite a bit more difficult than last year with the NFC
West on task. I still think the Broncos
can get to 14 wins, but it will not be like last season. There will be more close games as well as a
whole lot less scoring and passing yards.
There
was one writer who picked San Diego to win the division and I don’t think that
it is really that crazy. Mike McCoy was
the perfect match for Phillip Rivers and it completely revitalized the
quarterback. I am very high on Keenan
Allen (as you might know if we are in a fantasy league together) and think he
really started breaking out at the end of last season. The one issue I have with the Chargers is
their back seven on defense. Manti Te’o
has never exactly been Mr. Coverage, and Eric Weddle did not have as good of a
season as he normally does. San Diego
gave up almost 260 yards a game through the air, 29th in the
league. I expect rookie Jason Verrett to
get significant playing time, usually in the slot on the likes of the Wes
Welker (if he’s healthy) and Julian Edelman types. The X-factor of their season will be TE
Ladarius Green: he has the ability and potential to make the leap into Jimmy
Graham’s tier of tight ends, and if the Chargers add that component to their
offense then they will be a dangerous team come playoff time.
Last
year, Kansas City was the odds-on favorite to be the team to jump from out of
the playoffs to a spot in the post season and they delivered on it. This year, they are the prime contender to
regress back to the mean and out of the playoffs. The Chiefs took advantage of an easy
beginning of their schedule and rode that hot start into the playoffs. This season they will not be so lucky with
road trips to Miami, New England and Denver, along with a home game against the
49ers before their Week 6 Bye. They
would need an even bigger year from Jamaal Charles, which I just do not see
happening. I think Andy Reid is going to
ask too much from Alex Smith and it will blow up in his face.
Maybe
I should believe in recent history more, but I was set to have the Raiders in
playoff contention until they announced Derek Carr as their starter. Matt Schaub has left everyone with a bad
taste in their mouths because of his pick-six run, but there is no statistical
evidence that backs up interceptions being returned for touchdowns as anything
but luck. Unless Carr blows up in
RGIII-like proportions, I just do not see why Oakland is giving him the reins
so soon. They upgraded their defense
significantly with Justin Tuck, Lamar Woodley, Charles Woodson and Khalil
Mack. The receiving core is still
sub-par, but adding James Jones is a start.
Even Maurice Jones-Drew looks like his former self in the pre season. It all adds up to a decent roster surrounding
the quarterback, something Schaub had in Houston and led to multiple playoff
appearances. Derek Carr will have to
completely prove me wrong for this team to not draft in the top-five next year.
SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts, 10-6
Houston Texans, 9-7
Tennessee Titans, 6-10
Jacksonville Jaguars, 3-13
I
think it is at the point where if Andrew Luck is playing then he is winning
double-digit games. After back-to-back
11-5 seasons, Luck has cemented himself as the future of NFL QB’s. This season gives them the extra games
against Denver and New England, but the rest of their division is so bad that
it should not matter too much. If they
want to make a run, Trent Richardson will have
to do better to justify the first round pick that the Colts really could
have used. There were plenty of
defensive options available that could have helped Indy’s 26th
ranked rush defense. Either way, I think
the Colts are the penciled in winners of this division for at least the next
few seasons.
Say
hello to this year’s first pick to playoff team! The Texans are not going to be a good team,
but they have the easiest schedule
in the league. Houston has also put
together the most fearsome bookends in recent memory with newly extended (and
highest guaranteed salary for a defensive player ever) J.J. Watt and number one
pick Jadaveon Clowney. They were already
3rd in the league against the pass, and now will have two guys
threaten to have 20 sacks each. The
unknown factor that could make this prediction entirely too high is Ryan
Fitzpatrick. The Harvard product used a
strong start to the 2011 season (14 touchdowns, 97.8 rating over the first
seven games) to get a $59 million extension, then proceeded to finish the year
with 23 interceptions. He averages more
than an interception per game over his career, never thrown for 4,000 yards or
25 touchdowns, and his career rating is 77.5.
Fitzpatrick will not win games for this team so it will have to be
Foster. If he is healthy, he can make it
happen and that’s a big if.
If
I had to pick the best position group of the Tennessee Titans it would be their
offensive line. Michael Oher and Michael
Roos at tackle, the best guard combo in the league with Warmack and Levitre,
and Brian Schwenke at center. So why on
Earth did they pick LT Taylor Lewan in the first round? Then with their second round pick, they took
Bishop Sankey: a running back who can’t beat out Shonn Greene. That, my friends, is a bad draft. Funny enough, their best pick was probably
Zach Mettenberger in the sixth round, who I think ends up starting by the end
of the season. Jake Locker is in a make
or break year, and I think it will be bad.
The Titans first four games are at Kansas City, home against Dallas, at
Cincinnati and at Indianapolis. There is
a real possibility that they will be 0-4 and Locker gets benched.
Gus
Bradley has said he has no intention of starting Blake Bortles this season and Chad
Henne is just a band-aid on the gunshot wound that is the Jaguars’
organization. Bortles looked ready in
the pre-season and much like the Titans, Jacksonville could have a rough start
to the year: at Philly, at Washington, Indianapolis at home, at San Diego,
Pittsburgh at home. That has 0-5 staring
them in the face, and the Blake Bortles-era beginning. Toby Gerhart will get his chance as a starter
after the Jaguars averaged just 78.8 yards rushing a game last year. The same problem from last season faces
Gerhart though: a bad offensive line along with the Jags playing from behind
and having to pass too much. Bortles at
least looks like he might have the team going in the right direction for the
future.
NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals, 10-6
Pittsburgh Steelers, 9-7
Baltimore Ravens, 8-8
Cleveland Browns, 5-11
The
AFC North is the most difficult to predict in the AFC, and along with the NFC
East the murkiest in the league. I’m
picking the Bengals first in spite of Andy Dalton, and because they won the
division last year even though they were one of the most injured teams in the
NFL. Geno Atkins is one of, if not the
best defensive tackle in the league and he is fully healthy now. Without him last year, Cincinnati was still a
top-5 defense in all areas. On offense,
Dalton threw for almost 4,300 yards and 33 touchdowns last year in a pretty
ideal situation. He has one of the best
defenses, an absolute stud at receiver in A.J. Green, one of the best pass
catching backs in Giovani Bernard, and a strong offensive line. With that said, I might have waited to give
him $100 million until after he proves he can lead this team deep in the
playoffs.
After
a rough start to the year, the Steelers were the team that everyone in the AFC
was hoping would not make the playoffs.
Ben Roethlisberger did Ben Roethlisberger things, and Antonio Brown
turned into a top-10 receiver. People
seem to forget that he had 110 catches for 1,500 yards and 8 touchdowns last
season, because I stole him in the third round in a couple of fantasy
drafts. I’m not sold on Le’Veon Bell,
especially after the recent arrest. I
think Dri Archer will get some carries and targets and provide a big-play dynamic. The schedule is not favorable late in the
season with both games against the Bengals, along with the Saints, Falcons and
Chiefs to close out the year. I think my
black father will have them more focused and disciplined to start the year and get
Pittsburgh into playoff contention.
Sometimes
you let your quarterback win a Super Bowl before giving him the $100 million
and it still does not work out. Flacco
made about a million bucks per touchdown pass last season as he could not even
crack the 20-TD barrier. The running
game did not help much either, as Ray Rice fell off a cliff and the team only
averaged 83 yards per game. After
knocking his then-fiancé out, Rice will be gone the first two games but I think
he will come back with a vengeance for the rest of the season. He should be a good fantasy steal as you can
draft him as a bench player and he will end up as a legit RB2. The Ravens think they have their new Ray
Lewis with MLB C.J. Mosley out of Alabama.
However, I think there is something to the fact that more than half of
the Crimson Tide defenders that get drafted highly have turned out to be
busts. The combination of the defensive scheme
in Tuscaloosa and the amount of wear and tear from those tough Nick Saban
practices takes its toll. The defense
should be good enough for the Ravens to make the playoffs, but I think Joe
Flacco is just a below-average quarterback who happened to have the best 4-game
stretch of his career in the playoffs.
Then
there is the real story of the division, the Cleveland Manziels. Mike Pettine handled the QB-situation in
Cleveland in the worst way possible in my opinion. I think he should have been firm in starting
Hoyer and letting Manziel mature/progress a little bit before throwing him to
the wolves. This is not a good team that
will be without its best offensive player, Josh Gordon. Let Hoyer take the lumps at the beginning of
the season so that the pressure is off of Johnny. Then Pettine names Hoyer the starter, but
hints that Manziel could play as well so that Hoyer will feel the pressure from
the bench too. I mean I don’t think Manziel
will end up as a quality pro, but you definitely need to get him in a better
situation. The strength of the Browns
really is their pass defense, as Joe Haden has turned into one of the best
corners in the league. First round pick
Justin Gilbert showed his skills against some of the best receivers in the
country from the Big XII. They will keep
the Browns in some games, but the lack of offensive fire power (Ben Tate,
really?) will knock the Browns right out of games as well.
EAST
New England Patriots, 12-4
Miami Dolphins, 8-8
Buffalo Bills, 7-9
New York Jets, 6-10
The
most paramount factor keeping the Patriots’ title window open is not Tom Brady
or Bill Belichick: it’s this weak division.
Its weakness is not apparent because the teams usually aren’t the worst
in the conference, but between Miami, Buffalo and the Jets, they cannot bring
out a true contender to win the division; they just bring you mediocrity. New England did suffer a lot of injuries last
year, but I still think they were not beating the Denver buzz saw. If Gronkowski is actually fully healthy for
the first game and is playing up to his level, then they could dethrone
Denver. If he is not, I just don’t think
they have the offensive weaponry. The
schedule could end up giving the Patriots a strong start if they can sweep
Miami and Minnesota on the road. If they
pull that off I see them being at 8-0 going into a home matchup with the
Broncos.
I
think Ryan Tannehill might be better than what he is getting credit for so far
in his short career. I mean he threw for
almost 4,000 yards and 24 touchdowns with a running game that got him just 90
yards on the ground a game (15 coming from his own feet). Miami beefed up the O-Line with two free
agents, Brandon Albert and Jason Fox, and their first pick Ja’wuan James. If Tannehill can cut down on the turnovers
(17 interceptions) and utilize Mike Wallace more then the Dolphins could sneak
into the playoffs.
Buffalo
put a lot of their eggs in the Sammy Watkins basket by giving up their first
round pick next year to move up and select the Clemson star. Apparently a few teams had the WR as the best
player on the board, including the Bills.
I don’t view him as that big of a superstar, but Buffalo had to do
something with their receiving options.
Last year their tight end Scott Chandler led the team in receiving with
655 yards. They only have one returning
receiver who had over 300 yards last year.
What they do have is the second best rushing attack in the league with
Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. Fred
Jackson was surprisingly the tenth best fantasy RB last season. The defensive line for Buffalo sets the tone
for a decent unit. Marcell Dareus and
Kyle Williams provide pressure in the middle while Mario Williams and Jerry
Hughes rush the passer. This helped put
the Bills in as the 4th best defense against the pass last
season. At quarterback, Buffalo selected
E.J. Manuel last season and he was solid, but unspectacular before getting
injured. They just signed Kyle Orton as
the backup, but if Manuel can’t get the ball downfield to Watkins, look for
Orton to actually get some playing time.
Last,
and probably least, are the lowly New York Jets. Foot aficionado Rex Ryan now has dog
enthusiast Michael Vick as the backup QB to Geno Smith. Per Matthew Berry, Geno actually had more
“Stud” (top 10 of the week) fantasy performances than Russell Wilson, Collin
Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III last season.
He did come on strong at the end of the year and does have a new number
one target with Eric Decker. However, I
think Decker will be hard-pressed to repeat his performance from the past
couple of seasons with Peyton Manning and Geno will feel the New York media on
his back about Michael Vick possibly playing.
The first week of the year against Oakland is about as close to a
must-win game as the first game of the year can be. Following the Raiders’ game, the Jets travel
to Green bay, get Chicago and Detroit at home, travel to San Diego, get Denver
at home, then head to New England for a Thursday night game. You lose to Oakland and the Jets have an 0-7
start a strong possibility.
No comments:
Post a Comment