NFL Picks Week 1

After the full NFL Preview, I am going to knock out the rest of this week’s picks quickly.  The only other thing I’ll say is Seattle at home for a night game is an official “Take them no matter what the spread is” game.  Since the Fail Mary game a couple of years ago, every night game played in Seattle has been a Seahawks’ win by more than two touchdowns.

FALCONS +3.5 over Saints

The hook of the half point more than a field goal pulled me in to what should be a shootout.  Atlanta should bounce back nicely this season.

RAMS -3 over Vikings

Like I said in my NFC preview, the Rams’ roster is quite strong outside of quarterback so Shaun Hill should be all right.  It should tell you something that St. Louis is still the favor with their backup quarterback in.  Over 80% of the public’s bets are on the Vikings, the most of any game this week.

Browns +7.5 over STEELERS

The Browns will not be that good, but the Steelers’ defense is pretty bad too.  Troy Polomalu is just awful now on an every-play basis.  Even Miles Austin can get open against that secondary.

Jaguars +10.5 over EAGLES

Double-digit underdogs went 18-15-1 against the spread last year, so I am going to stay away from the favorites in this scenario for the time being.

Raiders +6 over JETS

I’m not really sure what to do with this game because there is so much unknown with both of these teams.  I will definitely stay away from it, but I’ll take the points.

RAVENS -1.5 over Bengals

This is another game between two teams that I have pretty even in my power rankings.  I do have the Bengals as a 3-point favorite on a neutral field, so once you add in the game being in Baltimore, they should still be a slight favorite or Pick ‘Em.  However Vegas has the Ravens as the firm favorite so I will go with them.

Bills +7 over BEARS

This seems like one of those Week 1 games that everyone thinks will be an easy win and has Chicago in their Knockout Pools; then they are sweating it in the fourth quarter.

TEXANS -2.5 over Redskins

The Redskins could be really bad this year, and Houston should play much better.  RG3 could get knocked out in the first quarter if Clowney gets an opportunity.

Titans +3 over CHIEFS

I am not sold on Tennessee at all, but this seems like the sucker bet of the week.  A team that won 11 games at home against a team that won 7 the year before, and there are no major changes.  That should be closer to a touchdown but holding at a field goal drawing in KC bets. 

DOLPHINS +4 over Patriots

You know I love me some home underdogs!  Miami actually beat the Patriots late last season in Florida, and I think they can at least make this close.

Panthers +3 over BUCCANEERS

This has been an over-adjustment due to the Cam Newton injury.  I think he plays so you can get value on the line right now.

COWBOYS +4.5 over 49ers

This has been bet down some over the week due to the injuries/suspensions to San Francisco.  The Cowboys’ defense will be awful, as every analyst in the world has pointed out, but I think the 49ers’ defense will be near the middle of the league.  Dallas will put up points and keep this game close.

Colts +7.5 over BRONCOS

I wanted to lay the points with Peyton after what happened on opening night last year, but then I remembered how Indy plays up to the level of competition. 

Giants +7 over LIONS

I’m buying this line up to the full touchdown, which most sharps will be doing after getting Detroit at -3 earlier in the week.  This is another game of the unknown with so much turnover on New York’s offense, so I’ll take the points.

CARDINALS -3 over Chargers

Too many people are on San Diego, some even picking them to beat out the Broncos for the division.  Everyone seems to forget that they start slow every, single, year.  I’ll take Carson Palmer throwing to Floyd/Fitzgerald over Keenan Allen trying to get open on Patrick Peterson.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Jaguars +20.5, Titans +13, Cowboys/49ers OVER 40

Others I Like:

Cowboys +14.5, Dolphins +14, Giants +17, Bears +3, Broncos/Colts OVER 44, Jets/Raiders UNDER 51

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week:

This will be someone you should be able to pick up, or use in your SKYLLZONE lineup.  Since there aren’t many sleepers for the first week, I’ll go with a defense you can stream in the Jets.  That game should be low scoring, and they get a rookie quarterback in his first start.

Week: 1-0

Season: 1-0