NFL Week 12 Picks

            So I got back on the right side of even par last week, but The Opposite Theory took a small hit going 1-2.  With that said, both losses saw the non-covering teams driving for tying (covering) or winning scores until late turnovers/missed field goals.  More importantly, there were two games in which a bye week separated games so I was unsure of how TOT would factor.  In both cases, the games played into TOT favor, and against my picks.  I will add them to the official record for now, as even though it is a small sample size, the unlikelihood of reoccurrence is so small the sample actually fits.  There are eight TOT games this week so we will really put it to the test.

            For the fourth straight week I gave you someone un-owned in 90% of leagues that came through with double-digit points.  John Brown had 11.9 PPR points last week, good enough for a starter-worthy performance overall. 

           

RAIDERS +7.5 over Chiefs

This game had every trend going with Oakland: slight TOT, home underdog, touchdown underdog, and short week at home.

Browns +3 over FALCONS

Another TOT game after a big win by Atlanta and a devastating loss by Cleveland last week.  The Browns were one of the trendy picks last week with sharps/wiseguys, yet they laid an absolute egg.  I think the return of Josh Gordon will be the difference as he had 10-140-2 last year in his first game back from suspension.  Atlanta has the worst pass defense in football.

Titans +11.5 over EAGLES

This is a tough one in that Chip Kelly has never lost two games in a row as a pro or college head coach.  However, Tennessee showed that it could hang with better teams due to a newly found power rushing attack led by Bishop Sankey.  Zach Mettenberger can play within himself and the offense to keep the game close enough to cover.

Lions +7 over PATRIOTS

This game is oozing with TOT after a total annihilation of the Colts by New England last Sunday, and the punch-less loss by Detroit in Arizona.  Two things about Detroit: first, they are 4-1 against division leaders/wild card leaders, with their first loss last week in a close game with Arizona.  Secondly, they still lead the league in total defense, including being first in rush defense giving up just 68.8 yards per game (nearly 90 yards less than the Giants).  So for all of you people who thought Jonas Gray was a savior, I would bet money that Shane Vereen gets more PPR points this week.

VIKINGS +10 over Packers

This makes it four-for-five with another TOT game.  Green Bay had a blowout win over Philly while the Vikings got beat by the lowly Bears.  It also has the double-digit and home-dog trends going in Minnesota’s favor.  It’s really hard to go against Aaron Rodgers right now because he is playing nearly flawless football, but I have to stick with the trends.  I mean it led to a Rams upset of Denver in the same scenario last week, so it has foundation.

COLTS -13.5 over Jaguars

There’s no TOT here with both teams coming off losses.  Jacksonville has become a trendy pick because they supposedly can run all over Indy just like New England did.  What these people fail to realize is that the Colts have coaches too.  They will look to stop the run more than anything, especially against a rookie quarterback.

Bengals +1.5 over TEXANS

Both teams are coming off big wins last week in which each was a sizeable underdog.  I think Cincinnati was written off too early after the worst game ever by an NFL quarterback a few weeks ago.  A.J. Green and Gio Bernard fully healthy help give Andy Dalton the weapons to not be terrible.  Ryan Mallett had the beginner’s luck, but I think it runs out this week.

BEARS -6 over Buccaneers

Here’s another game in which both teams are coming off good wins.  First glance I wanted to take Tampa in the hopes that they somehow get in the race for the NFC South Division title (both Atlanta and New Orleans are playing NFC North teams with winning records), but then I thought that Chicago should not be favored by a touchdown over anyone with that defense.  Sounds like a sucker bet to me.

SEAHAWKS -7 over Cardinals

This is a surprising TOT game, after a late loss by Seattle to Kansas City last week.  Everyone is riding high on the Arizona bandwagon after Drew Stanton led them to a win last week.  I think this is a new trend worth looking at: a backup/rookie in their first start covering (which seems to be the norm now) and the second week getting beat because there is now tape on them.  I also don’t like that teams that have won 90% of their games past Week 11 have not covered in almost five years.

Rams +4.5 over CHARGERS

San Diego’s last five games include three losses and two wins over the Raiders by just 10 points total.  St. Louis has wins against Denver, Seattle and San Francisco over their last five games.  They also have close losses to Dallas and Philadelphia, showing that this team can cover with anyone.  The Chargers will still have to prove something to get this many points.

BRONCOS -7 over Dolphins

I feel like Peyton Manning will come through in a TOT game.  He had his worst game as a Bronco last week and ended his record streak of multiple touchdowns in the same game.  I sincerely hope that Julius Thomas plays, because I have him in my big money fantasy league and there are no add/drops anymore unless the player is on IR (I had already dropped my backup TE).  If Thomas does play, I think he has a big day against the weakness of the Miami defense, their linebackers.

Redskins +10 over 49ERS

This line just keeps getting higher and higher and this game is a prime example of TOT.  San Francisco had road win straight up and against the number last week while the Redskins got blown out by the 2-win Buccaneers.  I think these are the two most over-rated quarterbacks in the league, as neither one is really that good at throwing a football accurately.  I will take the points in what should be a sloppy, run-fest.

Bills -2.5 over Jets

This game has been moved to Detroit, but I will still take the Bills using the Bye Week Opposite Theory.  New York had a big win over the Steelers before an off week while Buffalo got beat handily by Miami last week.  I think Buffalo rallies around their city and situation to pull out the win.

SAINTS -3 over Ravens

In our last TOT game of the week, we have another bye week situation.  Baltimore had a nice, covering win over Tennessee before their off week while New Orleans has lost two straight at home.  Drew Brees has never lost three straight home games in his career, so I will have to ride or die with New Orleans.

Cowboys -3 over GIANTS

Eli Manning threw five interceptions last week. It was his third game with four or more interceptions in the past season and a half.  He has 20 3+ interception-games in his career (Romo only has 10).  One day, everyone will realize that he is a below-average quarterback who makes bad decisions, is a statue in the pocket, gets over-rated based on counting stats due to always having to come back, and he just happened to have the best 8 games of his career in two playoff runs.  He just plain sucks.  DeMarco will run for nearly 200 yards over this terrible rush defense, ranked last in the league.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Saints +7, Packers PK, Saints/Ravens OVER 39.5

Others I Like:

Browns +13, Lions +17, Bengals +11.5, Cowboys +7, Seahawks/Cardinals UNDER 52, Colts/Jaguars OVER 40

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Brian Hoyer, QB, Cleveland Browns

Still only owned in 20% of leagues, I gave you Hoyer a few weeks ago in his second highest week of the year.  Well this week he gets last year’s number one fantasy receiver back, and gets to face the Falcons’ defense giving up the most passing yards in the league.

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 7-6

Overall: 71-59-1

TOT: 8-6