NFL Week 11 Picks

            Another sub-.500 week, but TOT was 2-1 and the Giants/Rams both gave up backdoor covers late as they were trying to catch up.  It goes both ways though, as the Saints were absolutely robbed.  You never see the pass interference call on the Hail Mary.  You could call it on either side every single time the play happens.  That was complete crap and cost me a fantasy win.

            Speaking of fantasy, there was an issue in one of my leagues this week.  I was offered Drew Brees for Matt Asiata, straight up and I accepted it.  There were cries of collusion and unfairness as a member wanted the trade to be vetoed.  As the most notable Fantasy Football writer Matthew Berry wrote a few weeks ago:

“5. Veto the veto. You've heard me say this before, but until this miscarriage of justice is abolished, you're going to keep hearing it. Unless you can prove actual collusion, no trade should ever be vetoed. It is not your job to manage someone's team for them. Everyone should be allowed to manage their own team their own way. Even if you don't agree with it. Even if it's badly. You don't think he got nearly enough for his star tight end? So what? Not your team, not your tight end. The guy dealing him thought he got a good deal, that's all that matters. There's a special level of hell reserved for the people who veto just because it's a deal that didn't involve them or because "it's part of their strategy." That's not strategy, it's being a jerk. Win on the virtual field, not in some technocratic loophole. The art of negotiation is a skill in fantasy and is part of the game. A big part.”

In this scenario, no one would ever say that Asiata is more valuable than Brees in the long run.  However, the person trading for Asiata had Matt Ryan as well (who was actually projected to get more points than Brees) and needed as many points as possible to make the playoffs.  He was down a couple of running backs with Adrian Peterson on the bench, so he needed a big swing until AP could come back.  What better way than obtaining the guy having stud-games in his absence. 

Either way, if there is no blatant collusion of a team eliminated and the first place team or something, trades should hold up.  That’s the beauty of fantasy sports.  A C.J. Spiller for Mark Ingram trade would have seemed absolutely insane before the season, yet now would have been a genius move.  You never know what can happen, so you can’t judge someone else’s intuition.

Lastly, my Fantasy Sleeper of the Week Jordan Matthews was the third best receiver of the week and fourth flex player overall and almost every person could have had him.  I have given you three guys over the last two weeks and each has been a top-6 player at his position for the week.

Vikings +3.5 over BEARS

With my TOT, I have not really gathered enough evidence to see how a bye week affects the outcome.  Minnesota had a solid win, then a bye while Chicago coming off an embarrassing loss.  Until I find the trend, I will take the points against a team that might be as bad as they looked last week.

BROWNS -3 over Texans

You can carbon copy the last paragraph, except flip the winner/loser for this game.  Cleveland had a dominant win last week while the Texans were on a bye after a big loss to the Eagles.  These two games will be very helpful in figuring out the effects of the bye week on TOT.

Seahawks +3 over CHIEFS

This line has moved a full 4 points with no end in sight.  At first, it was a “nobody believes in the Kansas City home field” line and has morphed into a “nobody believes in the Seahawks anymore” line.  I will take the field goal of value for the defending champs as they start to make their run.

PANTHERS +1 over Falcons

This is another strong movement of a line that started at a field goal the opposite way.  More importantly, we have our first TOT game of the week as Carolina was absolutely drilled by Philadelphia (literally for Cam Newton) and Atlanta had a double-digit win.  The Falcons offense is not that strong on the road, so I feel even better about Carolina.

SAINTS -7 over Bengals

The public is all over New Orleans, which scares me, and both teams are coming off bad losses, just in different manners (blowout and last second).  When in doubt, take Brees at home who is 3-1 at straight up as well as against the number, and the only loss was the game referenced earlier.

Buccaneers +7.5 over REDSKINS

One day Tampa will finally cover for me, and I think it is this week against an inflated line.  Why should Washington be favored by 7.5 points against anyone?  Their only win by more than a field goal was against Jacksonville just before Blake Bortles was inserted into the lineup.  Meanwhile, Tampa Bay only has one loss by more than a touchdown since Week 3, and that came last week after they blew a fourth quarter lead. 

RAMS +10 over Broncos

In our second TOT game of the week, you get ten points with a home team.  It is a convergence of trends along with a new quarterback that I think St. Louis will rally around.  It would be quite impressive to win back-to-back road games by double digits.

GIANTS +4 over 49ers

San Francisco snatched victory out of the jaws of defeat known as the back judge’s flag pocket last week, while the Giants gave up a second half lead IN Seattle.  Sounds like a solid TOT game to me, and just like the last game you are getting a home dog of more than a field goal.  San Francisco is not that good, and I think their downward spiral begins Sunday: take the Giants money line.

Raiders +10 over CHARGERS

If you get blown out 34-0, I need to see you bounce back strongly before giving ten points your way.

PACKERS -6 over Eagles

Both teams are coming off of huge blowout wins, and neither is in a place where they are comfortably in the playoffs with the tough 8-team group atop of the NFC.  I think the short week, plus travel to the frigid Lambeau Field gives Green Bay a big enough advantage.

CARDINALS -1 over Lions

As well as Carson Palmer was playing, he was not the main reason that Arizona is 8-1.  Their tenacious defense and Andre Ellington’s versatility will continue to dominate even with Drew Stanton at quarterback.

Patriots +3 over COLTS

I am pulling a Matthew Berry here by taking the guys I’m playing against in my big money fantasy league.  The team that I am tied for the division lead with is starting both Brady and Gronk against me this week so I will be betting heavily on New England to hedge myself.

TITANS +7 over Steelers

Always take a touchdown with a home dog.

10-Point Teaser of the Week:

Giants +14, Browns +7, Colts/Patriots OVER 46

Others I Like:

Broncos PK, Saints +3, Titans +17, Seahawks +13, Saints/Bengals OVER 39.5, Cardinals/Lions UNDER 52

Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: John Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals

John Brown has been a second team receiver for the majority of the season and now the second team quarterback will be starting; does that sound familiar?  Just as last week, a backup will utilize his comfortable weapon.  He is still available in almost 90% of leagues, so jump on him now.

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 6-7

Overall: 64-53-1

TOT: 6-4