So
it was not a good weekend for me, or The Opposite Theory (TOT), as we finished
at 5-8 and 2-3 respectively. The
Chargers pick really frustrated me because I knew that the late game, followed
by cross-country travel for the noon game would be too much. Between that, and knowing that the Giants
suck I cost myself a winning week.
However, in the long run if I stay on track with the trends I am
following then it will pay off in my favor.
Browns +6 over BENGALS
I took Cleveland last night because
the line was too high to begin with. I
never thought they would blow out Cincinnati and make Dalton look like such a
chump. Watch out for the Browns as they
are now tied for the division lead and even if Pittsburgh wins Sunday they will
still be in the lead for a wild card spot.
Jaguars +7 over Cowboys
No home team in this game because
of it being played in London, and I still think it is a terrible idea to start
Romo. Look at it this way: if Weeden
plays, sucks and Dallas loses, they are still at 6-4 and just need to finish
3-3 to get a likely playoff spot with a healthy Romo after the bye week; if
Romo starts, gets hurt and is hampered the rest of the season, then they may
win to go to 7-3, but can Weeden get you 2 wins in the last six? Good luck.
With that said, Gus Bradley is going to bring the house at either
quarterback, and unless Dallas runs the ball 40 times straight at the blitz
they will have problems.
Dolphins +3 over LIONS
Miami has turned itself into a
quality squad that can beat anyone. They
are surprisingly 4th in the league in rushing (due to Tannehill
averaging almost 40 yards a game) and second in the league against the
pass. This formula has produced four
wins out of five games, with a last second loss to Green Bay in between. This is a bad matchup for Detroit, who cannot
keep teams off the field with the 31st ranked rushing attack.
BILLS -1.5 over Chiefs
Buffalo is the other 5-3 team in
the AFC East, facing off with Kansas City and their own 5-3 record. Coming off of a bye, with a possibly healthy
Fred Jackson, I like Buffalo in this spot.
There are not many trends in play, but I just have a gut feeling with
the Bills.
49ers +5.5 over SAINTS
Our first TOT game of the week, New
Orleans dominated Carolina last Thursday while San Francisco laid an egg
against St. Louis. Kaepernick has looked
terrible, but I think there is serious backdoor cover potential. New Orleans should get up big early at home, Rob
Ryan will still bring the house to go for the kill shot and give up a couple of
big plays.
RAVENS -9.5 over Titans
I was listening to a podcast with
Bob Scucci, a head line-maker at a big casino in Vegas. He said that he had not seen a single bet
come in on Tennessee yet (this was Thursday, but still). Not one.
Normally I like to be a contrarian against he public… but when a big
casino is not taking A SINGLE bet on a team, I cannot side with them.
Steelers -4 over JETS
This is a reverse-jinx pick. It is a TOT game the other way, 90% of the
public is backing Pittsburgh, and several other trends point towards taking the
home-underdog. However, in my big money
fantasy league I dropped Roethlisberger two weeks ago because I have Drew Brees
and would not start Ben again. He
proceeded to throw 12 touchdowns in the two games since and in a key matchup
this week my opponent has Andrew Luck on a bye and is starting… Roethlisberger.
BUCCANEERS +3 over Falcons
I still believe that Tampa is going
to get it together. They blew that game
against Cleveland last week, and I am still not taking Atlanta for the time
being. Look at it this way: 6 weeks ago
Atlanta was up 59-0 on Tampa, yet is only a 3-point favorite here. I like that oddity in the Bucs’ favor.
RAIDERS +11 over Broncos
As much as this will be a Peyton Manning
revenge game, giving more than 10 on the road is just ridiculous. This could be Denver at Oregon and I would
take the points with the Ducks.
Rams +7 over CARDINALS
Arizona is not a blowout team, and
last week had more to do with Brandon Weeden.
Outside of the last time I needed him to keep it close, Austin Davis has
scrapped himself in every game and made it close, so I will take the touchdown
of value.
Giants +10 over SEAHAWKS
Seattle has not covered since
September and now must give double-digits to a Giants team that does not give
up even when down big. Eli is the king
of the fourth quarter garbage time, as he will look to pad his stats and get
the backdoor cover.
PACKERS -7 over Bears
A night game, in Lambeau, with an
extra week off is exactly where I love Aaron Rodgers. Chicago only has one win in the last six
weeks, including a 3-touchdown drubbing to Green Bay at home. Rodgers and Nelson will go off in this one
for near 200 yards.
Panthers +7 over EAGLES
I said it in Week 1 that we would
see Mark Sanchez this season. Foles was
either going to get benched or hurt, because he was holding on to the ball for
too long and making terrible decisions.
If his numbers were extrapolated out for a whole season, he would have
had 21 interceptions. Foles sucks, and I
think Sanchez can run the offense just as well.
However, this is a TOT game after the Carolina blowout to New Orleans
and the Eagles win over Houston. I will
stick to the trend here.
10-Point Teaser of the Week:
Broncos -1, Seahawks PK, Jaguars
+17
Others I Like:
Saints/49ers OVER 37, Packers +3,
Packers/Bears OVER 42, Bills/Chiefs UNDER 54, Buccaneers +13, Rams +17
Fantasy Sleeper of the Week: Jordan Matthews, WR, Philadelphia
Last week, Hoyer got you 20 points
in a standard league, and John Carlson scored a touchdown for you. This week I give you Matthews, who is still
widely available. He’s had at least 4
targets in every game, including 16 over the last two weeks. He had been working with the second team
(with Sanchez) until recently, so I think the Sanchize will go to him
extensively this weekend.
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 5-8
Overall: 58-46-1
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