The Lions and Redskins had late game blunders to blow me from having a good week, and the Vikings forgot that Adrian Peterson is on their team. With that said, I am going to continue to go against the national betting consensus, because Vegas always wins, even when you try to bet the same way as it.
JAGUARS +17 over 49ers
I do not know how many times I will blow a Jacksonville pick, but a team getting 17 points at home is just ridiculous. I guess I will get burned again.
LIONS -2.5 over Cowboys
Does this Cowboy team seem like a team that can win three games in a row and most likely take a 3-game division lead by tiebreakers? I just cannot see that happening, and I’m sure that the defense won’t play three good games in a row. Reggie Bush should have a huge day against the worst defense against running back-receiving in the league.
EAGLES -5 over Giants
I almost forgot that I am still betting every week against the professional football team that plays in the NFC from the state of New York.
Browns +8 over CHIEFS
Kansas City is due for a letdown, and the Browns defense could provide just that. Cleveland has a stout run defense and a spectacular shutdown corner, meaning it will be up to Alex Smith to utilize his secondary weapons to win the game. I think that the Browns keep it within a touchdown.
Bills +14 over SAINTS
This line has just ballooned, and Jimmy Graham is not even a sure thing of playing yet. The Bills might be under-rated still, so I will take the two touchdowns of value. Moreover, my big-money fantasy team is still undefeated, so I’m sure Graham does not play and Brees has a bad day.
Dolphins +7 over PATRIOTS
I really just do not think that New England is that good. Tom Brady is the 29th best passer by rating in the league. 29th. His completion percentage ranking is even worse, and I don’t think Gronk will help that much. Tannehill started shaky, but came on strong last week and I think Talib is getting too much praise. Hartline shines from the slot as the Dolphins pull off the upset.
BENGALS -6.5 over Jets
In the Sucker Bet of the Week, Cincinnati puts it on the Jets. The line seems about four points too high for a Jets team coming off a huge win, and a Bengals team that seems to be stagnant. So Vegas WANTS you to bet the Jets, meaning I will take the Bengals.
RAIDERS -2.5 over Steelers
So Pittsburgh has won a couple of games, they still have the same problems as before. This just is not the same Steelers team that we have become accustomed to. I think Terrelle Pryor’s athleticism gives the Pittsburgh defense fits, and he will burn Polamalu’s terrible discipline with a big play to Denarius Moore.
BRONCOS -12 over Redskins
There is just no way that Denver loses two in a row, so if there is no way for Washington to win, I cannot pick them to cover. I do not think they would anyway, as the Redskins’ defense will not get a stop the entire game.
CARDINALS -2.5 over Falcons
Atlanta is still getting the betting line respect of the fully healthy team from last season that was a play away from the Super Bowl. This is not the same team at numerous positions (receiver, running back, offensive line, defensive line) and the Cardinals defense steps up at home.
VIKINGS +10 over Packers
As bad as Minnesota looked last week, I think the bounce back theory is in play. Ponder should get the start, meaning a whole lot of Adrian Peterson up the middle. I think the game has a lower score than expected, so the value of over a touchdown is solid.
Seahawks -10 over RAMS
Kellen Clemens? Really? Browner, Thomas and Sherman are just licking their chops waiting to get at the fluttering balls across the middle Monday night. This one could get ugly. Really ugly.
10-Points Teaser of the Week:
Seahawks PK, Broncos/Redskins OVER 47, Lions +7
Others I Like:
Chiefs/Browns UNDER 51, 49ers -7, Packers/Vikings UNDER 59, Broncos -2, Dolphins +17, Bills + 24
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 7-8
Overall: 56-52-3
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