I kept my head above water last week and furthered the profit above even. My teaser plays have been a little off because I have not tinkered as much with them, but starting this weekend I will put more thought and time into which are the best options. My new trend to watch has been the gambling consensus across the country and finding certain trends with different percentages. I am going to put it in play this week and see what happens.
JETS +4 over Patriots
Brady has never had a flat-out dominant game against the Jets. Rex Ryan has always done a superb job against him, and this could be the week we find out if the Jets are for real or not. I’ll either look really smart or really dumb with no in between.
JAGUARS +7.5 over Chargers
Let’s face it, the Jags are a better team with Chad Henne behind center. I get that he has no upside and that’s why they are trying to get the best out of Gabbert, but that Jacksonville team from last week was a lot better than the rest of the season. I think they can hang close with San Diego.
Texans +7.5 over CHIEFS
The line only moved a single point (less in some places) with the naming of Case Keenum as the starter. That seems fishy to me, and I think Houston will rally behind its new signal-caller and play the best game of its season so far. Upset special of the week. (Reverse jinx?)
LIONS -2.5 over Bengals
Cincinnati has covered every game at home and failed to cover a single game on the road. I think Megatron comes back with a vengeance for a monster game.
Bills +8.5 over DOLPHINS
No matter who has played QB for Buffalo this season, they have kept games close for the most part. The defensive front seven is deceivingly good, the Spiller/Jackson combo is effective in real-life football (as opposed to fantasy) and the best indicator of all is that I am starting Tannehill on Brees’ bye in my big-money league. You just know he will suck.
Bears PK over REDSKINS
I think Washington just might not be any good. I saw them in person last week and for the first time in a while I had no doubt the Cowboys would win the game. RG3 lacks explosiveness and courage in the pocket, and that has shown Alfred Morris to be a spare. The defense is atrocious, so if you’re starting any Bears’ offensive player, you are in for a good week. If Dwayne Harris can dominate in the return game, what will Devin Hester do?
EAGLES -2.3 over Cowboys
Since the current division format started, teams that get swept by a division rival one year cover nearly 70% of the time the first game they play the next season, if favored. That trend is 4-0 this season, and I think it holds true as the Dallas defensive-line is hurting too much for that fast-paced offense.
Rams +7 over PANTHERS
While Carolina did look really good last week, they have just burned gamblers riding them all season. St. Louis got a sorely needed confidence boost from the flailing Texans and I think it carries over enough to keep this game close.
Buccaneers +7.5 over FALCONS
Julio Jones is out, Steven Jackson is out, Roddy White is hurting, and now the Falcons are playing Darrelle Revis and a good Tampa secondary/defense. This is a bad spot for Atlanta, as the Bucs can bracket Gonzalez and make Harry Douglas and Jacquizz Rodgers beat them. Do you really think those two can lead a double digit victory?
TITANS +4.5 over 49ers
Both teams come in 4-2 against the number this season, and both have played inconsistently. This is probably the hardest game to get a read on of the week, so I will take the home dog with extra value.
PACKERS -10 over Browns
Brandon Weeden, on the road, at Lambeau, against Aaron Rodgers. I don’t care if James Jones and Randall Cobb aren’t playing, A-Rodg will find a way to blow this team out.
STEELERS -2 over Ravens
This is up there with that 49ers/Titans game in difficulty to get a handle on, except these teams are even more inconsistent. The more I thought about it, the more I think Baltimore should be favored in the game, yet there they are with a number that is just begging you to take them. Vegas always knows, Vegas always wins. I’ll go against the grain, and my gut.
COLTS +7.5 over Broncos
Will Peyton Manning be out to seek revenge? Most likely. Will Andrew Luck be out to show up his predecessor? Most definitely. Will either defense show up to actually make stops? Probably not. I will take the half point of value in a shootout.
Vikings +3 over GIANTS
Insert pick against the football team in the NFC from the state of New York.
10 Point Teaser of the Week:
Packers PK, Cowboys/Eagles OVER 45, Broncos/Colts OVER 45.5
Others I Like:
Bears +10, Bucs +17.5, Bills +18.5, 49ers/Titans UNDER 51, Jaguars/Chargers OVER 34, Broncos +4
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 8-6
Overall: 49-44-3
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